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Translating military success into lasting economic resurgence | The Express Tribune

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Translating military success into lasting economic resurgence | The Express Tribune


Defence partnerships worth $13–15bn are a generational opening, only disciplined statecraft can make them gains

JF-17 Thunder is an advanced, light-weight, all weather, day / night multi-role fighter aircraft; developed as a joint venture between Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), Kamra and Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation (CAC) of China. PHOTO: Pakistan Aeronautical Complex website


KARACHI:

Over the past few weeks, the dominant conversation across Pakistan, and increasingly across the region, has revolved around the country’s potential $13-15 billion defence export and military partnerships pipeline. These discussions are no longer confined to rumours; they are being actively debated and evaluated by both domestic and international media.

The reported deals go far beyond the sale of flagship platforms such as the JF-17 fighter aircraft. They encompass comprehensive defence partnerships, including training, maintenance, upgrades, logistics, and long-term military support, effectively positioning Pakistan as a full-spectrum defence solutions provider rather than a mere arms exporter. This raises a fundamental question: has Pakistan’s military success in May 2025 created the conditions for a long-term economic resurgence, or will it remain a tactical achievement without strategic economic payoff?

Defence exports: opportunity of a generation

Pakistan’s reported defence engagement with Saudi Arabia, potentially expanding into a trilateral framework involving Turkey and Qatar, could alone eclipse headline figures attached to other contracts. Defence partnerships of this nature are rarely capped by nominal deal values; nations spend whatever is required to secure strategic capability, reliability, and deterrence.

Similarly, the reported $4 billion comprehensive defence package with the Libyan National Army, a $1.5 billion deal with Sudan, and ongoing negotiations with Iraq, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Qatar, Egypt and others could cumulatively push Pakistan’s defence partnerships into the $20-25 billion range over the medium term (remember the SIFC’s claim of $100 billion?).

If executed well, this would position Pakistan as a preferred defence supplier for several developing and Muslim-majority nations. This is undeniably positive news, but only if Pakistan treats it as a strategic inflection point, not a short-term windfall.

Rethinking the nation-building blueprint

First, Pakistan must deepen coordination with China to further scale defence manufacturing capacity, ensure technology transfer, and strengthen backward integration. Military self-reliance is not achieved merely by exporting platforms; it requires indigenous production ecosystems, resilient supply chains, and continuous innovation to protect both national security and export credibility.

Second, defence contracts should act as anchors for broader economic partnerships. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Nigeria should not only be defence buyers but long-term trade, investment, and industrial partners, creating a regional economic corridor (Pakistan Military & Economic Allies (PEMAs). A regional economic corridor, built around energy, logistics, manufacturing, food security, and technology, would lock in geopolitical goodwill for decades rather than years.

Third, proceeds from defence exports must be used with extreme fiscal discipline. The priority should be to build a genuine war-chest by expanding foreign exchange reserves from the targeted $17.8 billion by June 2026 to $50 billion by June 2030, keeping current account balanced, reducing debt-to-GDP ratio by 1-2% every year, expanding tax-to-GDP ratio by 1% through widening the tax net and capturing the grey market, demonetisation of Rs5,000 notes, digitisation of transactions, ending corruption and bribery among institutions, documenting all gold transactions, thereby aligning economic resilience with military strength. Reverting to consumption-led growth, pre-election stimulus, or renewed current-account imbalances would squander this rare opportunity.

Institutionalising economic security

Fourth, the management of these hard-earned dollars must fall under a high-powered Economic Security Council, analogous to the National Security Council. Its mandate should include reinvestment into next-generation capabilities – advanced aircraft, missiles, naval systems, drones, AI-enabled warfare, and cyber defence – ensuring Pakistan remains a reliable long-term partner for defence buyers.

Critically, these inflows should not be wasted on artificial currency stability or prematurely slashing interest rates back to 6-8%. A 10% policy rate should be treated as a floor, not a temporary inconvenience. Instead, resources must be channelled into dams, railways, energy infrastructure, and retiring costly bilateral debt.

The bigger reform agenda

None of this will succeed if Pakistan neglects core structural reforms. If the country genuinely aspires to become a sovereign leadership by its centenary in 2047, it must confront long-standing distortions:

Reforming the NFC Award; bringing untaxed traders, agriculture, real estate, and services into the net; supporting FBR’s push to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 17-20% within five years; restoring export competitiveness through rational energy pricing, liquidity access, and predictable policy; re-engaging the West for technology transfer in AI, machine learning, and robotics; and investing aggressively in globally marketable skills for Pakistan’s youth.

Civil-military alignment

Finally, civil-military coordination must extend beyond security into economic statecraft. The upcoming budgets must reflect seriousness – privatising inefficient DISCOs (not only profitable ones), rebuilding the Roosevelt Hotel using Pakistani capital, reducing excessive taxation on the formal and salaried class, catalysing IT exports, lowering power tariffs for export industries, educating every Pakistani with global skills, creating 100 universities of global standards and investing in dams and canals to secure food security.

Pakistan must demonstrate that it is not only capable in the skies, but equally credible at economic policy tables. Investors – foreign and domestic – must see a country where decision-makers rise above vested interests, dismantle lobbies, curb nepotism, and wage a determined war against poverty, dependence, and the low-growth trap. Military success can open doors. Only disciplined economic strategy can keep them open.

The writer is an independent economic analyst



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BP profits more than double as oil trading booms amid Iran war

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BP profits more than double as oil trading booms amid Iran war


BP has come under fire after revealing profits more than doubled in the first three months of the year, thanks to the soaring cost of crude caused by the Iran war.

Chief executive Meg O’Neill praised the quarter as sending the firm “in the right direction” and “strengthening the balance sheet” – but critics have labelled the energy giant’s revenues as “horrifying” as “millions suffer the fallout” from war.

The FTSE 100 firm revealed its preferred profit measure – underlying replacement cost profit – surged by over 130% to a better-than-expected $3.2bn (£2.4bn) in the first quarter, up from $1.38bn (£1.02bn) a year earlier and $1.54bn (£1.13bn) in the previous three months. Most analysts had expected first-quarter profits of $2.67bn (£1.97bn).

Campaigners accused the group of profiting at the expense of households, who have seen fuel prices rocket at the pumps and are set to see energy bills jump higher once more when the price cap is next updated on July 1.

The price of oil has risen from the mid-$60s range in February to over $100 now, spiking close to $120 several times during the course of the Iran war.

Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at campaigning organisation Global Witness, said: “It is horrifying to see BP’s profits grow as millions suffer the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran. Unfortunately we’ve been here before – when Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago we saw big oil firms make bumper profits from spiralling fuel costs.  

“As oil prices drive up bills once again, it’s clear that fossil fuel companies don’t enhance affordability or energy security, they make life worse. They destroy the climate, push up the cost of living, and rake in billions in profit while innocent civilians die.

“It’s well overdue that we make oil companies pay for the damage their doing. If they broke it, they need to fix it. It’s clear they can afford to. BP profits, we all pay.”

Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, added: “Just as we saw in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fossil fuel giants are quids in when global instability drastically inflates fuel prices.

Most analysts had expected first-quarter profits of 2.67 billion dollars (£1.97 billion) (PA)

“But again, it’s ordinary people who pay the price when soaring energy prices threaten to plunge the UK into an even deeper cost-of-living crisis.”

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition called for a windfall tax on firms profiting from the Iran-related energy crisis.

The campaign group’s co-ordinator Simon Francis said: “These astronomical profits are a startling reminder that when conflict drives up the price of oil and gas, energy companies profit and households pay.”

BP’s new chief executive Meg O’Neill, who took over at the helm on April 1, said the group was ensuring fuel supplies are met across the UK.

She said: “The teams across BP are playing their part to keep oil, gas and refined products flowing during an incredibly challenging time – focused on maintaining safe, reliable and cost-efficient operations.”

She added: “We are working with customers and governments to get fuel where it’s needed, helping minimise disruption and the impact it can have on people’s lives.”

Ms O’Neill took over from Murray Auchincloss, who himself served only two years in the role after succeeeding Bernard Looney’s three-year tenure. Prior to the recent regular changes, Bob Dudley spent a full decade in the job up to 2020.

BP have struggled with strategy direction and the transition to clean energy, first doubling down on their green plan before an abrupt about-face turn.

In share price terms, the results saw BP rise 2.5 per cent in early trading on Tuesday, adding to a surge of more than 28 per cent in the past three months alone, as investors watched a soaring oil price and predicted the profits to come.

“In February, BP announced it was halting share buybacks as weak oil prices hurt profitability. How times change,” said Freetrade’s investment writer, Duncan Ferris.

“The firm has been among the best-performing supermajors since the escalation of conflict in Iran. Higher oil prices, and the opportunities they offer to the company’s traders, have breathed life into a stock battered by faltering low-carbon projects and investor unrest.”

Oil prices have raced higher since the US-Israel war on Iran started on February 28 and are now more than 60% up so far this year.

Brent crude reached close to 120 dollars a barrel at one stage and, despite falling back, is still above the 100 dollars level as peace talks falter and amid fears over a looming global energy supply crisis.

BP’s update showed its customers and products division – including its oil trading unit – reported profits of 2.5 billion (£1.84 billion), compared with 1.4 billion dollars (£1.03 billion) in the previous quarter and just 103 million dollars (£76.2 million) a year ago as traders were able to capitalise on highly volatile oil prices.

Additional reporting by PA



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Oil prices edge higher as Trump weighs Iran’s latest proposal to open Hormuz

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Oil prices edge higher as Trump weighs Iran’s latest proposal to open Hormuz



Oil prices jumped on Tuesday as Donald Trump weighed Iran’s latest proposal to end the war.

The US president is unhappy with the latest Iranian ​proposal, a US official said on Monday. Iranian sources disclosed that Tehran’s ​proposal avoided addressing its nuclear programme until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.

Trump’s ⁠displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of ​Hormuz, which typically carries supply equal to about 20 per cent of global oil and gas consumption, and the US keeping ​in place its blockade of Iranian ports.

Brent crude rose to $108.13 per barrel, hovering near a three-week high, while US West Texas Intermediate went up to $96.48.

Both benchmarks are well above pre-war levels. Brent was trading at $72 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February.

Asian stocks were broadly subdued at the opening. While MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.12 per cent, hovering near the record high it touched on Monday, Nikkei fell 0.5 per cent.

The S&P 500 eked out modest gains on Monday and was on course for a nearly 10 per cent gain for April. US stock futures were 0.1 per cent higher in Asian hours.

Indian shares are set to open lower on Tuesday, with GIFT Nifty futures pointing to the benchmark Nifty 50 opening below Monday’s close of 24,092.70. Both Nifty and Sensex snapped a three-session losing run on Monday, led by a rebound in technology stocks, but the broader momentum remained constrained by unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Elevated oil prices are a particular headwind for India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, heightening inflation risks, pressuring economic growth and widening the country’s import bill.

Foreign portfolio investors offloaded domestic stocks worth Rs 11.5bn ($122m) on Monday, extending their selling streak to a sixth straight session.

Vessel crossings showed signs of recovery over the weekend, according to the maritime intelligence firm Windward, but analysts warned increased movement was yet to translate into a surge in oil and gas flows.

Iran reportedly offered to end its blockade of the waterway without addressing its nuclear programme, passing the proposal to Washington through Pakistani mediators. But Mr Trump has made ending Iran’s atomic programme a condition for any deal.

Central banks are also in focus this week, with the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all due to announce policy decisions. All are expected to hold rates steady, but markets will be watching closely for signals about how policymakers plan to respond to the inflationary pressure from the war.

“The BOJ is likely to stay highly sensitive to market volatility,” Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, told Reuters. “Our base case remains one single 25 basis point hike this year in July, but a June rate rise becomes more likely if the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed after mid-May.”



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Oil prices climbs as no end to Iran war shows no signs of ending – SUCH TV

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Oil prices climbs as no end to Iran war shows no signs of ending – SUCH TV



Oil prices extended their gains on Tuesday as efforts to end the ‌US-Iran war appear stalled, with the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway still mainly shut, keeping energy supplies from the key Middle East producing region out of the reach of global buyers.

US President Donald Trump is unhappy ​with the latest Iranian proposal aimed at ending the war, a US official said on Monday. ​

Iranian sources disclosed on Monday that Tehran’s proposal avoided addressing its nuclear program ⁠until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.

Trump’s displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves ​the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically ​carries supply equal to about 20% of global oil and gas consumption, and the US keeping in place its blockade of Iranian ports.

Brent crude futures for June climbed 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $108.68 a barrel, after gaining 2.8% in the previous session to its highest close ​since April 7. The contract is up for a seventh day.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June rose ‌58 ⁠cents, or 0.6%, to $96.96, after gaining 2.1% in the previous session.

An earlier round of negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed last week following failed face-to-face talks.

“For oil traders, it’s not the rhetoric that matters any more, but the actual physical flow of crude oil through the ​Strait of Hormuz, and ​right now, that flow ⁠remains constrained,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, said in a note.

Razaqzada added that even if a resolution is reached, ​production outages and logistical challenges mean recovery could take months.

Ship-tracking data revealed ​significant disruptions ⁠in the region, with six Iranian oil tankers forced to turn back due to the US blockade.

However, a liquefied natural gas tanker managed by the United Arab Emirates’ Abu Dhabi National Oil ⁠Co did ​cross the Strait of Hormuz and appears to be ​near India, ship-tracking data showed on Monday.

Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, between 125 ​and 140 vessels transited the strait daily.



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