Business
Budget 2026: Govt capex may cross Rs 12 lakh crore in FY27, fiscal deficit likely at 4.2 pc of GDP: SBI
New Delhi: India continues to remain the bright spot supported by its strong macro fundamentals and the government capex may cross Rs 12 lakh crore in FY27, a year-on-year growth of 10 per cent, an SBI Research report said on Monday.
The nominal GDP growth relevant for Budget math is expected at 10.5-11 per cent with the uptrend in global commodity prices may percolate in a higher WPI.
A bit slower nominal growth may hurt tax revenues in FY27, requiring better expenditure planning. However, GST rationalisation and reduction in marginal tax rates for personal income tax is expected to cushion the impact of sluggishness in tax base, said Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India.
Based on the above nominal forecast, fiscal deficit is expected to be at 4.2 per cent of GDP for FY27. The cost of borrowing from the government is expected at 6.8-7.0 per cent for FY27 with risk evenly balanced, Ghosh added.
Estimated net Central borrowing for FY27 is expected at Rs 11.7 trillion (around 70 per cent of FD) and repayment of Rs 4.60 trillion including Rs 1 lakh crore expected buyback and Rs 1.5 trillion estimated switches while State gross borrowings may come at Rs 12.6 trillion and repayment of Rs 4.2 trillion.
“There is a possibility of scaling down SDLs and hence net state borrowings through meaningful reforms and net centre borrowings through higher borrowing through T-Bill issuance. With such large borrowings, the Government and the RBI may also have to work together to bring meaningful reforms in the SDL market,” said the report.
The presentation of the Union Budget 2026 comes against the domino effects of a new emerging order of realpolitik, still largely opaque, yet frightening, cascading down the annals of global financial markets with misplaced trust being the lynchpin of rout across stretched equities and bond markets.
The report further said that as states account for a significant share of general government debt, state budgets should explicitly chart medium-term, preferably scenario-based, debt-to-GSDP trajectories, aligned with realistic growth assumptions and development needs, rather than relying solely on annual deficit targets. The Union Budget may highlight this.
Business
Sky‑high losses: Iran war drives airlines to biggest crash since Covid – $50bn gone – The Times of India
Global airlines have suffered their worst financial shock since the COVID‑19 pandemic as the ongoing war involving US Israel and Iran has disrupted industry operations, wiping more than $50 billion off the market value of the world’s largest carriers amid rising fears of fuel shortages.The conflict, now entering its fourth week, has grounded flights, disrupted key Gulf hub airports and driven jet fuel prices sharply higher, compounding pressure on an industry that was rebounding strongly following pandemic‑related losses.According to Financial Times calculations, the 20 largest publicly listed airlines have collectively lost about $53 billion in market capitalisation since the war began. In response, airline executives have warned of a potential rise in ticket prices as carriers seek to protect shrinking profit margins.Jet fuel, which accounts for roughly a third of operating costs for airlines, has doubled in price since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February. Many carriers had hedged against fuel price swings, but the rapid rise is expected to force airlines to pass on costs to passengers.“Fuel spiked quite heavily after the Ukraine invasion in 2022 as well, but this has gone further north,” easyJet chief executive Kenton Jarvis told FT, describing the current crisis as the most significant upheaval since the pandemic closed global skies in 2020.Executives also point to broader structural challenges, including the risk that sustained high fares may dampen demand. Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa, said higher ticket prices were unavoidable but expressed concern that they could weaken long‑term demand. “Our average profit is about €10 per passenger, there’s no way you can absorb the additional cost,” he said.In addition to passenger traffic pressures, airlines are preparing contingency plans for possible jet fuel shortages. Air France‑KLM CEO Ben Smith said the carrier is drawing up measures to cope with potential supply squeezes, including scaling back services on some Asian routes.The crisis has hit Middle Eastern carriers particularly hard. Carriers such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways have had to sharply reduce schedules due to airspace closures and a collapse in regional tourism, industry officials say. Despite the severity of the current disruption, Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), noted that it still falls short of the pandemic’s impact but is reminiscent of the downturn in transatlantic demand after the 9/11 attacks, according to FT.
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The conflict’s ripple effects are also visible in cargo operations, as freight traffic shifts from disrupted shipping routes to air cargo, straining airport facilities. At Geneva airport, for example, freight re‑routing has led to overflow onto services bound for Paris.Industry observers remain hopeful that airline valuations and demand will rebound once the conflict abates. “The share price has moved against all airlines since the start of the conflict,” Jarvis said, adding that short sellers would likely close positions quickly if a ceasefire is announced.
Business
Watch: Cargo ship Pyxis Pioneer, carrying LPG from US, arrives at Mangalore Port – The Times of India
NEW DELHI: The Pyxis Pioneer, a Singapore-flagged cargo vessel carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Texas in the United States, docked at New Mangalore Port in Karnataka’s Mangaluru on Sunday.Click here for live updates on Middle East crisis The tanker, built in 2019, arrived a day after the Aqua Titan, which is transporting 1.1 lakh tonnes of Urals crude, reached the port. The Aqua Titan had initially set sail from Primorsk in Russia for Rizhao Port in China before diverting to India.On Friday, the Shipping Ministry said that New Mangalore Port has waived cargo-related charges for crude oil and LPG between March 14 and 31 amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.Also Read | Watch: Missile strike rocks Israel’s ‘Little India’ as Iran attack injures over 40; videos show chaos Earlier this week, three Indian-flagged vessels — Shivalik, Nanda Devi, and Jag Laadki — docked at Gujarat’s Mundra Port carrying LPG. While Shivalik arrived on Monday, Nanda Devi and Jag Laadki reached on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.On February 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, triggering the current conflict. In response, Iran has carried out retaliatory attacks on Israeli territory and on Gulf states hosting U.S. military bases. Tehran has also effectively disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global chokepoint through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply passes — raising concerns over energy security and global markets.Also Read | Under the sea: How Iran’s invisible fleet of ‘midget submarines’ is turning Strait of Hormuz into danger zone‘All Indian ships and sailors safe’ At Friday’s interministerial briefing on Friday, shipping ministry special secretary Rajesh Kumar Sinha said all 22 Indian ships and 611 sailors in the Persian Gulf are safe amid the ongoing conflict.“There has been no report of any maritime incident in the last 24 hours. All our 22 ships and 611 Indian sailors in the Persian Gulf region are safe, and we are continuously monitoring them… There is no congestion in any port… New Mangalore Port has issued a circular for waiver of all cargo-related charges for crude and LPG from March 14 to 31,” Sinha told reporters.Also Read | Iran invasion next? Pentagon plans for deployment of US troops on ground – reportMeanwhile, the petroleum ministry noted panic booking of LPG cylinders has eased significantly, with 55 lakh bookings reported on Thursday.“There is no panic booking now. Only 55 lakh LPG bookings were reported yesterday. There is adequate stock available, and no outlets are running dry,” joint secretary Sujata Sharma said at the briefing.However, she acknowledged that concerns persist.
Business
West Asia war takes toll on highway builders as prices start to bite – The Times of India
NEW DELHI: Senior executives of some of the highway construction companies told TOI that the increase has started impacting the road construction cost as bitumen and fuel expenses are around 30% of the project cost. “Since the commercial diesel price is revised from time to time, we are worried whether there will be another round of hike in the next fortnight since there is no sign of any end to the Iran-Israel-US war,” said one of the executives.He added that the discount offered prior to the war has been nullified on bitumen which was in the range of Rs 2,000 to Rs 5,000 per tonne.Recently, the National Highway Builders Federation (NHBF) had flagged the issues at a meeting with NHAI. “Sharp escalation in fuel costs is impacting operation of plants at sites…We have no option but to seek govt intervention as the overall cost escalation due to these factors is beyond the normal contractual provisions,” said a representative of NHBF.
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