Business
Budget 2026: Govt capex may cross Rs 12 lakh crore in FY27, fiscal deficit likely at 4.2 pc of GDP: SBI
New Delhi: India continues to remain the bright spot supported by its strong macro fundamentals and the government capex may cross Rs 12 lakh crore in FY27, a year-on-year growth of 10 per cent, an SBI Research report said on Monday.
The nominal GDP growth relevant for Budget math is expected at 10.5-11 per cent with the uptrend in global commodity prices may percolate in a higher WPI.
A bit slower nominal growth may hurt tax revenues in FY27, requiring better expenditure planning. However, GST rationalisation and reduction in marginal tax rates for personal income tax is expected to cushion the impact of sluggishness in tax base, said Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India.
Based on the above nominal forecast, fiscal deficit is expected to be at 4.2 per cent of GDP for FY27. The cost of borrowing from the government is expected at 6.8-7.0 per cent for FY27 with risk evenly balanced, Ghosh added.
Estimated net Central borrowing for FY27 is expected at Rs 11.7 trillion (around 70 per cent of FD) and repayment of Rs 4.60 trillion including Rs 1 lakh crore expected buyback and Rs 1.5 trillion estimated switches while State gross borrowings may come at Rs 12.6 trillion and repayment of Rs 4.2 trillion.
“There is a possibility of scaling down SDLs and hence net state borrowings through meaningful reforms and net centre borrowings through higher borrowing through T-Bill issuance. With such large borrowings, the Government and the RBI may also have to work together to bring meaningful reforms in the SDL market,” said the report.
The presentation of the Union Budget 2026 comes against the domino effects of a new emerging order of realpolitik, still largely opaque, yet frightening, cascading down the annals of global financial markets with misplaced trust being the lynchpin of rout across stretched equities and bond markets.
The report further said that as states account for a significant share of general government debt, state budgets should explicitly chart medium-term, preferably scenario-based, debt-to-GSDP trajectories, aligned with realistic growth assumptions and development needs, rather than relying solely on annual deficit targets. The Union Budget may highlight this.
Business
Education Budget 2026 Live Updates: What Will The Education Sector Get From FM Nirmala Sitharaman?
Union Education Budget 2026 Live Updates: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget 2026–27 on February 1, with a strong focus expected on the Education Budget 2026, a key area of interest for students, teachers, and institutions across the country.
In the previous budget, the Bharatiya Janata Party government announced plans to add 75,000 medical seats over five years and strengthen infrastructure at IITs established after 2014. For 2025, the Centre had earmarked Rs 1,28,650.05 crore for education, a 6.65 percent rise compared to the previous year.
Meanwhile, the Economic Survey 2025–26, tabled in the Parliament of India, points to persistent challenges in school education. While enrolment at the school level is close to universal, this has not translated into consistent learning outcomes, especially beyond elementary classes. The net enrolment rate drops sharply at the secondary level, standing at just over 52 per cent.
The survey also flags concerns over student retention after Class 8, particularly in rural areas. It notes an uneven spread of schools, with a majority offering only foundational and preparatory education, while far fewer institutions provide secondary-level schooling. This gap, the survey suggests, is a key reason behind low enrolment in higher classes.
Stay tuned to this LIVE blog for all the latest updates on the Education Budget 2026 LIVE.
Business
LPG Rates Increased After OGRA Decision – SUCH TV
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) has increased the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). According to a notification, the price of LPG has risen by Rs6.37 per kilogram. Following the increase, the price of a domestic LPG cylinder has gone up by Rs75.21. The revised prices have come into effect immediately.
The rise in LPG prices has added to the inflationary burden on household consumers.
Business
Budget 2026: Fiscal deficit, capex, borrowing and debt roadmap among key numbers to track – The Times of India
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present her record ninth straight Union Budget, with markets closely tracking headline numbers ranging from the fiscal deficit and capital expenditure to borrowing and tax revenue projections, as India charts its course as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.The Budget will be presented in a paperless format, continuing the practice of recent years. Sitharaman had, in her maiden Budget in 2019, replaced the traditional leather briefcase with a red cloth–wrapped bahi-khata, marking a symbolic shift in presentation.Here are the key numbers and signals that investors, economists and policymakers will be watching in the Union Budget for 2025-26 and beyond:
Fiscal deficit
The fiscal deficit for the current financial year (FY26) is budgeted at 4.4 per cent of GDP, as reported PTI. With the government having achieved its consolidation goal of keeping the deficit below 4.5 per cent, attention will turn to guidance for FY27. Markets expect the government to indicate a deficit closer to 4 per cent of GDP next year, alongside clarity on the medium-term debt reduction path.
Capital expenditure
Capital spending remains a central pillar of the government’s growth strategy. Capex for FY26 is pegged at Rs 11.2 lakh crore. In the upcoming Budget, the government is expected to continue prioritising infrastructure outlays, with a possible 10–15 per cent increase that could take capex beyond Rs 12 lakh crore, especially as private investment sentiment remains cautious.
Debt roadmap
In her previous Budget speech, the finance minister had said fiscal policy from 2026-27 onwards would aim to keep central government debt on a declining trajectory as a share of GDP. Markets will look for a clearer timeline on when general government debt-to-GDP could move towards the 60 per cent target. General government debt stood at about 85 per cent of GDP in 2024, including central government debt of around 57 per cent.
Borrowing programme
Gross market borrowing for FY26 is estimated at Rs 14.80 lakh crore. The borrowing number announced in the Budget will be closely scrutinised, as it signals the government’s funding needs, fiscal discipline and potential impact on bond yields.
Tax revenue
Gross tax revenue for 2025-26 has been estimated at Rs 42.70 lakh crore, implying an 11 per cent growth over FY25. This includes Rs 25.20 lakh crore from direct taxes—personal income tax and corporate tax—and Rs 17.5 lakh crore from indirect taxes such as customs, excise duty and GST.
GST collections
Goods and Services Tax collections for FY26 are projected to rise 11 per cent to Rs 11.78 lakh crore. Projections for FY27 will be keenly watched, especially as GST revenue growth is expected to gather pace following rate rationalisation measures implemented since September 2025.
Nominal GDP growth
Nominal GDP growth for FY26 was initially estimated at 10.1 per cent but has since been revised down to about 8 per cent due to lower-than-expected inflation, even as real GDP growth is pegged at 7.4 per cent by the National Statistics Office. The FY27 nominal GDP assumption—likely in the 10.5–11 per cent range—will offer clues on the government’s inflation and growth outlook.
Spending priorities
Beyond the headline aggregates, the Budget will also be scanned for allocations to key social and development schemes, as well as spending on priority sectors such as health and education.Together, these numbers will shape expectations on fiscal discipline, growth momentum and policy support as India navigates a complex global economic environment.
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