Sports
Super Bowl LX betting buzz: Bettor places $1,000 MVP wagers on Super Bowl kickers
Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our Super Bowl betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation leading up to the big game.
Key links: Early bets | Updated odds | Sports betting home | DraftKings
Feb. 5: Bettor places $1,000 MVP wagers on Super Bowl kickers
By David Purdum
The Super Bowl can make bettors do strange things, such as wagering big bucks on a kicker to win MVP.
On Feb. 1, a bettor in New Jersey with sportsbook BetRivers placed a pair of $1,000 MVP bets on each of the starting kickers in Sunday’s game:
A spokesperson for BetRivers said the sportsbook had taken only a handful of MVP bets on the kickers, “although several of them are relatively large.” No kicker has ever been named MVP of the Super Bowl.
DraftKings also reported taking a $1,000 MVP bet on Myers at 100-1 and a $500 bet on Borregales at 200-1.
Joey Feazel, head of football trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said there has been interest on Borregales at his shop.
“Longer odds, that’s really what a lot of bettors are trying to find during the Super Bowl, something that’s not the greatest probability, but it has a decent price,” Feazel said.
Quarterbacks have been named MVP in 34 of 59 Super Bowls, including five of the last six. Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold is the MVP favorite in Super Bowl LX, listed at +115 on Thursday at DraftKings Sportsbook, followed by Patriots quarterback Drake Maye at +240.
Wide receivers have won eight MVPs, followed by running backs with seven. Ten defensive players have won the award: four linebackers, two defensive ends, two safeties, one safety and one defensive tackle.
In other long-shot MVP wagers, Hard Rock Bet reports taking a $1,000 bet on Seattle cornerback Devon Witherspoon to win Super Bowl MVP at 150-1, and $100 bets on three Seahawks defenders: defensive tackle Byron Murphy II (150-1), safety Julian Love (500-1) and defensive tackle Leonard Williams (100-1).
Feb. 4: Super Bowl odds and ends
More bets on coin flip than any Super Bowl player prop
Among the thousands of Super Bowl props on the board, the most popular one with bettors will be determined by a flick of the thumb before the game even kicks off. At BetMGM sportsbooks, more bets have been placed on the result of the pregame coin flip than on any individual player prop on the board.
Overall, “heads or tails” is eighth overall in Super Bowl wagering, behind the staples such as the point spread, outright winner (money line) and MVP. Bettors annually flock to place a bet on the Super Bowl coin flip. Most of the bets are small in stature, but there have been reports of six-figure wagers on the coin flip in the past. The Super Bowl has landed on tails in 31 out of the 59 past Super Bowls. As of Wednesday, 63% of the money wagered on the coin flip was on heads at BetMGM. — David Purdum
A super hedge
Before the season, a retail bettor at BetMGM in Nevada placed three $50,000 futures wagers on the Seahawks, two of which — to make the playoffs (+185) and to win the NFC (+2800) — have already cashed to the tune of approximately $1.5 million combined.
With the last $50,000 riding on Seattle to win the Super Bowl at 60-1, the same bettor has placed a $725,000 bet on the Patriots to win Sunday’s game at +190 money line odds, BetMGM confirmed to ESPN. Should the Seahawks win, the bettor will net $2,275,000, but if the Pats win, the bettor will net “only” $1,327,500 on the wagers with BetMGM.
The same bettor also placed large bets on the Seahawks in the preseason at sportsbook Circa, according to a source. — Doug Greenberg
Holding the line
The consensus Super Bowl point spread is holding steady at Seattle -4.5 at all but a few sportsbooks, with the Seahawks attracting the majority of the action on the spread. As of Wednesday at DraftKings, approximately 64% of the bets — and 70% of all money that had been wagered — was on Seattle.
“Early action was mostly on Seattle,” Tom Gable, sportsbook director at the Borgata in Atlantic City, New Jersey, told ESPN. “We opened [Seahawks] -4, touched -5, but settled in at -4.5 and haven’t moved since. If New England keeps it within the number, as of now, that would be a good outcome. New England winning outright even better. But a lot of handle still to come.” — Purdum
Feb. 4: Tracking the largest bets on Super Bowl LX so far
By Doug Greenberg
The matchup for Super Bowl LX is set with the Seattle Seahawks favored over the New England Patriots to take home the Lombardi Trophy. The biggest single event in American sports always brings out the big bets.
Since the summer, bettors have been speculating on the result of this game, and the wagers will finally settle on Feb. 8. Here are some of the largest bets — by odds, stakes and potential winnings — tracked thus far:
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On Wednesday, Florida attorney Dan Newlin placed a $1 million wager on the Seattle Seahawks moneyline at -230 odds to net $434,782.61, all of which will be donated to pediatric cancer research at Nemours Children’s Hospital in Orlando. A release from Newlin said he will continue donating to Nemours “regardless of the outcome of this wager.”
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In August, a retail bettor at BetMGM in Nevada placed three separate $50,000 futures on the Seahawks, as first reported by Yahoo Sports and confirmed to ESPN by the sportsbook. Seahawks to make the playoffs at +185 cashed for $92,500 and Seahawks to win the NFC at +2800 cashed for $1.4 million. The bettor still has a Seattle Super Bowl ticket at +6000 odds that will net $3 million if successful.
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On Monday, Circa Sports director of operations Jeffrey Benson announced that the sportsbook took a $1.1 million wager on the Patriots money line at +188 that would net nearly $2.1 million if New England wins outright.
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DraftKings took a $10,000 futures bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at +8000 that would pay winnings of $800,000.
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In November, BetMGM accepted a $30,000 wager on New England to win the Super Bowl at +2200, a net of $660,000 if successful.
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In late August, Circa took a $100 bet on the exact result of the Super Bowl being Seahawks over Patriots at an astonishing 3100-1. The bettor would win $310,000 if the exacta comes to fruition.
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On Jan. 14, Caesars Sportsbook took a $32,000 wager on the Seahawks at +275 odds for winnings of $88,000; less than two weeks later, it took a $40,000 bet on the Patriots at +260 for a potential net win of $104,000.
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DraftKings accepted a $500 bet on the Seahawks at +65000 to win $32,500.
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At Caesars, a bettor in Nevada placed a $55,000 wager on Patriots +4.5 (-108) for an approximate $51,000 win, while a bettor in New Jersey put in a $36,000 bet on Seahawks -4.5 (-109) for an approximate $33,000 win, according to the sportsbook’s head of football Joey Feazel, who said the wagers came in “within seconds” of the odds going up following the NFC championship.
Feb. 3: Blue, orange the favorites in Gatorade dump markets
By Doug Greenberg
Of the thousands of prop bets offered on the Super Bowl each year, the color of Gatorade poured on the winning head coach is one of the big game’s most enduring novelties.
At DraftKings, blue and orange are the current odds leaders at +250, with yellow/lime or green close behind at +260. Purple (+700), red/pink (+950) and water/clear (+1100) round out the available options.
A representative from BetMGM told ESPN that the Gatorade prop is currently the 23rd-most-bet market for the Super Bowl thus far but that they “expect it will continue to grow,” given it has not been available as long as many of the other prop markets.
In the early betting, yellow/lime or green has been the clear public preference; both BetMGM and DraftKings report their largest shares of bets and handle backing the flavor, maxing out with 28.1% of the money at the former. Blue has also been a popular choice, with a leading 29% of tickets at theScore Bet, as well as the second-most bets and handle at BetMGM. Purple and orange have also seen their fair share of action across the sportsbook marketplace.
The three most recent Super Bowls saw the Philadelphia Eagles use yellow on Nick Sirianni, while the Kansas City Chiefs dumped purple on Andy Reid for both of their Super Bowl wins.
When the Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII, they used orange Gatorade. The New England Patriots have varied between blue and clear throughout their six Super Bowl wins, with blue being the winning color for their victory in Super Bowl LIII. These were, of course, under different coaching regimes, if that matters.
Since 2001, orange has been the most frequently used color, getting the dump five times. All of the other colors are tied at four except for red/pink, which has never been used, according to data from BetMGM.
Feb. 2: Seahawks’ Shaheed the favorite to be fastest in Super Bowl
By ESPN Staff
Among more than 1,500 betting markets, DraftKings is offering odds on the top speed a ball carrier will reach during Super Bowl LX.
Seattle Seahawks receiver/kick returner Rashid Shaheed, at +200, is the betting favorite to reach the highest speed of any ball carrier in Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots, a wager that will be determined by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is next at +270, followed by Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III at +400. New England quarterback Drake Maye has the shortest odds of any Patriot, at +450
DraftKings has the over/under on Shaheed’s top speed set at 19.5 mph. He reached a top speed of 21.72 mph this season, while he was with the New Orleans Saints, before his trade to the Seahawks. He has gone over 19.5 on carries in both of Seattle’s playoff games this season but has had only seven possible plays in both playoff games.
The over/under on Maye’s top speed is 18.5 mph. He has exceeded that speed in all three playoff games.
Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson was one of six ball carriers to reach 22 mph during a game this season. Henderson topped out at 22.01 mph during a Week 10 game. He is 10-1 to have the fastest carry in the Super Bowl, but the rookie running back’s touches have been limited in the playoffs.
Jan 31. Sportsbooks resist moving Super Bowl line despite heavy Seahawks action
By David Purdum
After a week of betting, the point spread on Super Bowl LX was holding steady Saturday, with the Seattle Seahawks remaining consensus 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots.
Sportsbooks have been reporting early lopsided action on the Seahawks to cover the spread. As of Saturday, 75% of the money that had been bet on the Super Bowl spread with DraftKings was on Seattle. In addition, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who is battling a sore shoulder, missed Friday’s practice with an illness.
Despite the early action on the Seahawks and Maye’s ailments, most sportsbooks were holding the line at 4.5.
“At this point, it would require significant additional action on Seattle -4.5, or a meaningful update to Drake Maye’s injury status, for us to consider a move,” Neil Walsh, senior vice president for Hard Rock Bet, told ESPN. “We do not anticipate either occurring for the next few days.”
Jamey Pileggi, head NFL oddsmaker for Circa Sports, said it would take a “six- or seven-figure” bet on the Seahawks at -4.5 to push the line up to -5.
Two Las Vegas sportsbooks — the South Point and the Westgate SuperBook — had bumped the line up to -5 in recent days.
Chris Andrews, the South Point’s veteran sportsbook director, made the adjustment to Seahawks -5 on Thursday, saying that he’d rather be the first sportsbook to make the move than the last. Since making the move to -5, Andrews said the action has been extremely balanced.
“Only $3 separates the teams at five,” Andrews said.
Bookmakers weren’t putting much stock in any impact Maye’s shoulder might have. Andrews said he was going to let the money wagered guide him. He estimated only around 5% of the total money that he expects will be wagered on the Super Bowl had been placed in the first week.
Jan. 29: Smith-Njigba most popular player in early Super Bowl betting
By Doug Greenberg
In early player prop and MVP wagering for Super Bowl LX, one name is rising above the rest: Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Seattle Seahawks wide receiver is currently DraftKings Sportsbook’s most-bet first touchdown scorer (+550) with 15% of the handle, as well as its most-bet anytime touchdown scorer. BetMGM similarly reports Smith-Njigba attracting the most anytime touchdown and first touchdown wagers, making him a liability for the book.
“Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Seattle’s Defense/Special Teams finding paydirt have become bad results for the book right now,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said in an email release.
Both books list the 23-year-old’s anytime touchdown prop at -110, which has already shortened from +100 likely due in part to the heavy action he has received. That said, Smith-Njigba’s implied odds to score a touchdown, defined as “the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay [converted] into a money line,” are +181.
Smith-Njigba has by far the highest receiving yards over/under of any player at 95.5, according to DraftKings lines. The sportsbook reports him receiving the most wagers in the most receiving yards market (-185), as well as the most receptions market (-158).
All the early betting fervor around Smith-Njigba extends to the Super Bowl MVP market, where he is also becoming a creeping liability. At +550, he has the shortest odds for a wide receiver to win Super Bowl MVP since Larry Fitzgerald in 2009 (+400), and seeks to be the longest winner overall since his current teammate, Cooper Kupp, won it at +600 with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022, according to SportsOddsHistory.
DraftKings says Smith-Njigba is its second-most-bet MVP candidate by handle (19%), while BetMGM reports him receiving by far its most handle (24.9%), making him its largest liability in the market.
Jan. 28: Mattress Mack makes $2 million bet on Super Bowl LX winner
By David Purdum
The largest reported Super Bowl bet so far — $2 million on the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl — belongs to a Houston furniture salesman.
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale placed the $2 million bet last week on the AFC to win the Super Bowl with Caesars Sportsbook. At 2-1, McIngvale would win a net $4 million if the Patriots upset the favored Seattle Seahawks. It’s the largest Super Bowl bet that Caesars has taken this year as of Wednesday.
Mattress Mack is hedging his bet with one of his go-to promotions at his Gallery Furniture store: Spend $4,000 on a mattress and gear with McIngvale’s Gallery Furniture, and if the Patriots beat the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX, you get your money back on your purchase.
McIngvale, a beloved figure in Houston for decades, turns 75 in February. He has tied such giveaways to big sports wagers regularly for years. In 2022, he won approximately $75 million on bets he made on the Houston Astros to win the World Series, believed to be one of the largest sports betting payouts in U.S. history.
McIngvale has had mixed results on the Super Bowl, otherwise, winning big on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021, but suffering a multimillion-dollar loss on the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022. He also twice lost seven figures on bets on the Houston Cougars men’s basketball team to win the NCAA tournament.
McIngvale hedges his total exposure with any boost in mattress sales generated by the giveaways. He sat out last Super Bowl recovering from heart surgery, but he’s back this season and siding with the underdogs for multiple reasons. Getting plus odds on the underdog helps with the promotion, but he also respects the Patriots’ personnel.
“I really like their quarterback [Drake Maye], coach [Mike Vrabel] and offensive coordinator [Josh McDaniels], plus Robert Kraft is always there,” McIngvale told ESPN on Wednesday.
Last year, there were no disclosed $1 million Super Bowl bets reported by U.S. sportsbooks. This year, there have been at least two, both of which are on the underdog Patriots. On Monday, sportsbook Circa reported taking a $1.1 million wager on the Patriots to win the game outright at +188 odds.
Mohamed Salah formally broke the news on Tuesday that many Liverpool fans had felt was coming for several months: that he will be cutting his contract short and leaving Anfield on a free transfer at the end of the season.
Salah signed a new two-year deal with the Reds last summer. However, since then a dip in form, a slip down the pecking order, an explosive public outburst and a subsequent nosedive in his relationship with head coach Arne Slot, has seen the Egypt international fail to get as much game time as he feels he deserves.
However, since arriving in 2017, Salah has firmly established himself as one of Liverpool’s greatest-ever players and will undoubtedly depart a hero regardless of the current circumstances.
– Why Salah beats Ronaldo, Henry as Premier League’s greatest
– Salah will get the Liverpool farewell, but he leaves a void to fill
– Liverpool’s ‘greatest’: Mohamed Salah saluted by teammates
The 33-year-old has scored 255 goals in 435 appearances for the club (putting him third on their all-time list) and been instrumental in two Premier League title triumphs, domestic cup successes and the UEFA Champions League trophy in 2018-19.
He has also collected a number of individual plaudits, including three PFA Players’ Player of the Year awards, two Premier League Player of the Season awards and four Premier League Golden Boots.
Salah was also bestowed with the illustrious Puskás Award as part of The Best FIFA Award gala night in 2018, which — unlike the majority of his vast array of prizes and trophies — raised more than a few quizzical eyebrows around the world.
The forward was handed world football’s Goal of the Year award via an online fan vote for his strike against Everton in December 2017, when he collected the ball on the edge of the box before darting between two defenders and curling an exquisite finish beyond the goalkeeper.
Of course, it was and remains a perfectly decent goal. Yet many at the time were baffled to see Salah’s effort deemed to be the most beautiful goal scored that year … when it wasn’t even his best goal of 2017-18, or anywhere close.
The sentiment was even echoed by teammate James Milner, who offered wry congratulations to his then-Liverpool teammate after the winner was announced, fending off competition from Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and a clutch of scorching golazos from the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
“Congrats Mo Salah on your 7th best goal from last season winning goal of the year,” Milner wrote in a social-media post which also featured “#oneofmanyworldies” among several hashtags and emojis.
But was Milner right? By our count there were at least six Salah strikes from his imperious 2017-18 season that deserved a place on the Puskás short list ahead of his goal in the Merseyside derby. But, whether you agree with this subjective list or not, it serves as a reminder of just what a player Salah has been for Liverpool.
Salah scored twice in a 3-0 victory against Southampton including a lovely effort from outside the box. The precise, angled finish was fairly similar to his strike against Everton but from a little further out.
2. Nov. 29, 2017 vs. Stoke City
Another rampant 3-0 win saw Salah score the goal of the game when he connected with a dinked cross from Sadio Mané to thump a vicious volley past the goalkeeper. The powerful finish was actually voted Goal of the Month by Liverpool fans.
Liverpool inflicted a first Premier League defeat of 2017-18 on Manchester City with a frantic 4-3 victory over the leaders at Anfield that went down as the game of the season. The score went from 1-1 to 4-1 in the space of just nine hectic minutes with Salah scoring what proved to be the decisive goal with an audacious 35-yard lob.
Liverpool and Spurs contested another dramatic thriller that saw the two sides trade stoppage-time goals in a pulsating 2-2 draw at Anfield. Salah opened the scoring for the home side before Victor Wanyama pegged them back with an absolutely monstrous hit from distance. The Egypt international then looked to have snatched a 91st-minute win when he wriggled through a cluster of four defenders and belted it past Hugo Lloris. However, a 96-minute penalty from Harry Kane spoiled the party somewhat.
5. March 17, 2018 vs. Watford
Salah scored four goals (and assisted the other) in a 5-0 rout at Anfield on what proved to be one of many virtuoso displays for the nimble forward this season. His first was good, the second was slick and the third was nigh-on ingenious as the Reds star somehow fended off an entire pack of defenders before prodding an improvised finish past the goalkeeper.
6. April 24, 2018 vs. AS Roma
If you’ll forgive the obvious pun, Salah filed another five-star performance in Liverpool’s 5-2 thrashing of his former club in the first leg of the Champions League semifinal. He opened the scoring with his best goal of the night, curling an immaculate shot beyond the outstretched arm of future teammate Alisson Becker. He then dinked home a second before laying on assists for the Reds’ third and fourth goals of the evening.
Tiger Woods’ turbulent career veered into fresh turmoil on Friday when the golf icon was arrested and charged with driving under the influence after a rollover crash near his Florida home, authorities said.
Woods, 50, escaped injury but was detained after his vehicle clipped a truck while attempting to overtake on a residential road on Jupiter Island, flipping onto its side before sliding to a stop.
Martin County Sheriff John Budensiek said Woods — who was arrested for driving under the influence in 2017 — showed signs of “impairment”, although he passed a breathalyser test.
“When it came time for us to ask for a urinalysis test, he refused, and so he’s been charged with DUI, with property damage and refusal to submit to a lawful test in the crash,” Budensiek said.
The 15-time major champion was released later on Friday, with Florida law requiring him to remain in jail for at least eight hours before he could post bail.
Budensiek said drug recognition experts who examined Woods at the scene found the golfer “lethargic” and believed he was impaired with “some kind of medication or drug.”
No drugs or medication were found in his vehicle and since Woods refused the urine test, his right under Florida law, authorities “will never get definitive results as to what he was impaired on at the time of the crash,” Budensiek said.
‘Could have been worse’
While neither Woods nor the driver of the other vehicle was injured, Budensiek said the incident on the two-lane road “could have been a lot worse.”
“Had somebody been moving in the opposite direction, we would not be having a conversation saying there was no injuries,” he said.
Budensiek said he didn’t know how fast Woods was driving in the moments before the crash.
He said the driver of the truck had slowed to make a turn, then tried to move to the side of the road when he saw Woods’s fast-moving vehicle attempting to overtake him.
“When I show you the photos, they kind of speak for themselves … you can see that [Woods] slid for a decent space before he came to a stop,” said the sheriff, who said that after the crash Woods climbed out of the passenger-side window of his Land Rover.
President Donald Trump expressed sympathy for Woods in remarks to reporters in Miami following the incident.
“He’s got some difficulty, there was an accident, and that’s all I know,” Trump said. “Very close friend of mine. He’s an amazing person, amazing man, but, uh, some difficulty.”
Woods was arrested in Jupiter in 2017 after police found him asleep at the wheel of his damaged car. Woods eventually pleaded guilty to reckless driving and said he had taken a mix of painkillers.
Five years ago, Woods was involved in a serious car crash in California that left him with severe right leg injuries that required pins inserted in his foot and ankle and a rod in his tibia as well as a follow-up surgery in 2023.
Woods returned from that crash at the 2022 Masters, where he struggled to walk all four rounds on the way to a 47th-place finish.
Woods, whose clean-cut image was left in tatters after a 2009 sex scandal that upended his career, has been working to return from an Achilles tendon rupture last March and back surgery last October.
He competed earlier this week in the TGL simulator indoor golf league finals and had not ruled out playing in next month’s Masters, where his five victories include his first major title in 1997 and his most recent in 2019.
“This body … it doesn’t recover like it did when it was 24, 25. It doesn´t mean I’m not trying,” Woods said. “I keep trying.”
Woods, whose 82 PGA Tour career victories are level with Sam Snead for the all-time record, has not competed on tour since missing the cut at the British Open in July 2024.
He last made the cut at the 2024 Masters, where he finished 60th.
The first half of the Elite Eight is set with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punching their tickets Thursday. Who could join them in the regional finals of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?
ESPN reporters on-site in Chicago and Washington, D.C. tracking Friday’s Sweet 16 action in real-time.
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9:45 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: UConn 68-64
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn 70-65
How Michigan State can advance to Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate the most headlines during the NCAA tournament, but coaching matchups are equally — if not more — impactful. During a tenure that began in 1995, Tom Izzo has developed an uncanny ability to zero in on an opposing team’s top players and create problems for them. That’s the Spartans’ ticket to another Elite Eight.
Izzo’s primary mission against UConn is to limit Tarris Reed Jr.’s impact on the game. The Huskies are a different team when he’s a dominant presence in the post. If Reed is grabbing offensive rebounds and giving them an abundance of second-chance opportunities, Michigan State will be in a tough spot. The good news for the Spartans is that they are connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point attempts and capitalizing on second-chance opportunities with a No. 10 national ranking in offensive rebounding rate. It will be key for them to hit more 3s, extend UConn’s defense and create more paths to the basket for Jeremy Fears Jr. & Co. They have to give UConn a reason to guard on the perimeter — if the Spartans just allow the Huskies to sit in the lane, challenge shots around the rim and grab rebounds, Michigan State could lose.
Izzo has been in this position before — against better teams — and won. His experience will matter in a matchup against Dan Hurley.
How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Izzo, UConn will have to show up as the top-notch defensive outfit that held UCLA to just a 39% clip inside the arc in the second round. The Huskies’ win over the Bruins served as a reminder that they can be a great defensive team when they want to be. In the Big Ten tournament, UCLA had produced 132 points per 100 possessions in a win over Michigan State. In the round of 32, the Bruins — who played without leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) — scored only 57 points, their second-lowest total of the season. UCLA star Donovan Dent had nine assists but also finished 2-for-9 shooting with a pair of turnovers. That’s the same attention UConn will need to give Fears. When he’s comfortable, Michigan State’s offense soars. The Huskies can’t let that happen.
On offense, Braylon Mullins could be an X factor. Reed had a double-double against UCLA but not the historic numbers he put up against Furman in the first round (31 points, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-high 27 points against the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. scoring two points combined. If Reed and Karaban can create a balanced inside-outside attack, Michigan State will have to find a way to disrupt that, which could give Mullins — who is averaging 14.5 points in two NCAA tournament games — more freedom and opportunities to make plays and create off the dribble or on off-ball screens.
The Huskies have a multitude of options to score, and as long as most of them are effective, they can get back to the Elite Eight. — Medcalf
10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Iowa State 67-65
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa State 74-68
How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa State, Tennessee will have to play the same disciplined defense that stopped Virginia in the final minutes of Sunday’s second-round game. That task begins with Felix Okpara, who had four blocks against the Cavaliers and altered other shots, including a late drive by Thijs De Ridder that Okpara blocked during Virginia’s comeback attempt. Opposing players had made only 30% of their shots around the rim against Okpara entering Sunday’s game, per Synergy Sports data. He’ll have to protect the rim against Iowa State, which had a significant advantage in paint points against Kentucky (34-20) — but he won’t have to do it alone.
Tennessee has the personnel to handle every one-on-one matchup defensively. The Vols can guard at every spot. They will have to put pressure on Tamin Lipsey, sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson, if he plays, to win. That defensive effort coupled with standout performances from Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament would be the formula for a Tennessee trip to the Elite Eight.
How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or without Jefferson, Iowa State will have the same blueprint against Tennessee: Move the ball to find the best shot on offense, force turnovers with defensive pressure and score on fast breaks. Although they didn’t have Jefferson, who is a game-time decision because of an ankle injury, the Cyclones forced 20 turnovers in their second-round win over Kentucky. Playing through Lipsey — who finished with 26 points, 10 assists and only three turnovers against Kentucky — the Cyclones registered 150 points per 100 possessions and made 63% of their shots after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsey’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1 or better.
Gillespie and Ament combined for five turnovers in Tennessee’s second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State can pressure that duo into the same mistakes Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers combined) made for Kentucky, even if Jefferson sits out another game. That’s how the Cyclones can advance. — Medcalf
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