Sports
Men’s Bubble Watch: Tracking which teams will make (or miss) the NCAA tournament
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? They have roughly five weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their case. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
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Locks: Teams that would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut (which some inevitably still will). 28 current teams
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Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline, if not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 12 current teams
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Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip. 20 current teams
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Long shots: Teams that would need to outperform expectations or benefit from chaos. There is little — though not zero — chance these ones will make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern. Only expected at-large bids are listed; each conference will receive one additional berth with an AQ.
Jump to a conference:
Big Ten | SEC | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
BIG TEN
10.0 expected bids (9.0 at-large)
Locks (5)
Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans
Should be in (4)
Updated: Feb. 8, 5:16 p.m.
Iowa continues its rise up the résumé rankings to move closer to “lock” status. The Hawkeyes bolstered their case with a Quadrant 1A win at Indiana in mid-January, starting a six-game win streak that kept rolling Sunday with a victory over a stubborn Northwestern squad. What’s scary is they’re even better than their résumé ranking gives them credit for, checking in as borderline top 20 in our average of predictive ratings — which in turn raises their potential going forward. Their schedule does get more difficult looking ahead, jumping from 71st to 24th nationally, according to the BPI. Wins like the Hawkeyes have compiled recently, though, have them trending solidly toward a return to March Madness.
Next game: at Maryland (Wednesday)
Updated: Feb. 10, 7:20 a.m.
Darling of the forecast models — which now average out to a conditional at-large probability in the mid-80% range despite the team’s borderline top-40 résumé ranking — Indiana bolstered its chances with a thrilling overtime win over Wisconsin on Saturday, then rolled all over Oregon on Monday. The latter was the Hoosiers’ fifth victory in six games, a stretch that includes three wins over opponents in Quadrants 1 and 2. With only the 8th-hardest remaining schedule in the Big Ten and a top-30 ranking in the predictive metrics, the Hoosiers have a good path to the tourney in front of them.
Next game: at Illinois (Sunday)
Updated: Feb. 7, 2:38 p.m.
The Badgers showed impressive resolve Saturday, overcoming an early double-digit deficit to force overtime at Indiana. But the one-point loss (on a pair of Lamar Wilkerson free throws) stalled a hot streak of seven victories in their previous eight games. They still sit around 40th in the national consensus résumé ranking, though, and eighth in a Big Ten currently tracking for 10 bids. The schedule does not let up anytime soon, with four straight Quadrant 1 contests still coming up, including three straight against Quadrant 1A, but wins over that stretch could help make up for the heartbreak in Bloomington.
Next game: at Illinois (Tuesday)
Updated: Feb. 8, 8:02 a.m.
The Bruins recently saw their 14-game home win streak snapped in double overtime against Indiana, but they’ve gotten right back to winning with consecutive victories over Rutgers and, on Saturday, Washington. In the big picture, their résumé ranks in the mid-40s nationally and 10th in the Big Ten, though that might be underselling their chances. The forecast model composite thinks they’re more likely to get a bid than not (76%) on the basis of two Quadrant 1 wins and a future projection that calls for them to end up above 20 wins on the season. That said, many high-leverage games remain for UCLA, and it faces the Big Ten’s third-toughest remaining schedule.
Next game: at Michigan (Saturday)
Work to do (3)
Updated: Feb. 8, 2:10 p.m.
USC continued building its case as a tourney contender with a back-and-forth win at Penn State on Sunday, behind freshman Alijah Arenas‘ second consecutive 20-point game (capped off by a buzzer-beater). If the season ended today, the Trojans would likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries comfortably: They’re a mid-30s team in the résumé rankings and sit seventh in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. The models are a bit less bullish (below 70% at-large), however, showing the Trojans as a mid-40s team in the predictive ratings with the nation’s 26th-hardest remaining schedule. But Eric Musselman’s team has now won four of five after a midseason skid, including résumé boosters over Wisconsin and Indiana.
Next game: at Ohio State (Wednesday)
Updated: Feb. 8, 3:07 p.m.
The Buckeyes went into Sunday sitting right on the bubble, ranked 48th in the national résumé rankings and 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. A lopsided home loss to archrival Michigan did them no favors, bringing their at-large odds down from 65% to closer to a coin flip. They are now 0-7 against Quadrant 1 teams, 0-4 versus Quadrant 1A, specifically. After following all but two of their wins since November with a loss, Ohio State is not as sure a tournament-bound team as it seemed earlier in the season.
Next game: vs. USC (Wednesday)
Updated: Feb. 8, 8:02 a.m.
The Huskies are tumbling further toward the “long shots” category, as a pair of losses to Iowa and UCLA dropped them to an 11% chance in the forecast model consensus. They are just 4-9 in Big Ten play and rank 12th in the conference on résumé (63rd nationally). But they also have a pair of wins over teams in the BPI top 50 — most recently adding what might have been their most impressive of the season, a 14-point road victory over Northwestern on Jan. 31. One other glimmer of hope for UW: It has the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule, though that also cuts against its ability to add signature wins.
Next game: vs. Penn State (Wednesday)
Long shots
None
SEC
9.5 expected bids (8.5 at-large)
Locks (6)
Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kentucky Wildcats
Should be in (3)
Updated: Feb. 7, 6:25 p.m.
Auburn has several solid wins amid a difficult schedule (fifth hardest per the BPI) and remains mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average, but its standing is complicated by consecutive losses at Tennessee and then against Alabama at home Saturday. The model consensus thinks there’s still plenty of cushion to work with — it gives the Tigers greater than 90% at-large odds — but the BPI is projecting them to fall short of 20 wins. The most brutal stretch of their schedule is almost over — with back-to-back Quadrant 1 games against Vanderbilt and Arkansas coming up — then coach Steven Pearl can assess where the Tigers go from there.
Next game: vs. Vanderbilt (Tuesday)
Updated: Feb. 7, 8:03 p.m.
The Bulldogs desperately needed a victory after recent losses to Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M dropped their odds — and they got it during Saturday’s visit to LSU, winning by double-digits. Still in the mid-30s of the overall résumé rankings with a quartet of wins against the BPI top 50, they still entered the weekend ranked ninth among SEC teams in résumé average (out of what could be only a nine-bid conference). They also jump from 75th-hardest strength of schedule nationally to 16th moving forward, and they’re projected to lose more remaining games than they win.
Next game: vs. Florida (Wednesday)
Updated: Feb. 7, 10:45 p.m.
Despite back-to-back losses to Alabama and Florida, most of the models in the forecast consensus still consider the Aggies to be in solid shape (80% or higher) for an at-large bid. They are projected by the BPI to finish the regular season with at least 21 wins, which should be enough to make the tournament. They’re still just eighth in the résumé ranking average out of what could be as few as nine tournament-bound teams from the SEC, though there’s a big gap between them and 10th-ranked Texas.
Next game: vs. Missouri (Wednesday)
Work to do (2)
Updated: Feb. 7, 5:34 p.m.
Despite ranking in the mid-30s of the predictive metrics nationally, Sean Miller’s team is in a tough numbers game after a handful of early defeats in SEC play. The Longhorns seem to be moving in the right direction, though, with three straight wins (and four in five). That includes Saturday’s victory over Ole Miss, courtesy of a game-ending 14-0 run that turned a three-point deficit into an 11-point win over the final 3½ minutes. They are still 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (around 50th nationally), and their schedule strength jumps from 64th hardest looking back to 19th hardest going forward. Three Quadrant 1 wins, including two for Quadrant 1A, are helpful, but the Horns need to either keep the winning streak going against a tough set of opponents, or hope the SEC gets 10 bids.
Next game: at Missouri (Saturday)
Updated: Feb. 7, 3:15 p.m.
After a recent cold stretch, the Tigers won their second straight game (and third in four) with a dominant performance at South Carolina on Saturday. They still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average — a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10 tournament entries at most. Mizzou does have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and four against the BPI top 50. But even if its résumé is on par with that of Texas, Missouri is much lower in the predictive metrics, so outdueling the Longhorns with more wins remains a task easier said than done.
Next game: at Texas A&M (Wednesday)
Long shots
ACC
7.9 expected bids (6.9 at-large)
Locks (6)
Duke Blue Devils
Louisville Cardinals
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Clemson Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
Should be in (1)
Updated: Feb. 7, 5:35 p.m.
The Mustangs bounced back from consecutive losses, including an especially tough one hosting NC State, with a convincing win at Pittsburgh on Saturday to help stabilize their trajectory. Even after the recent losses, SMU still ranked seventh best in what could be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And while they are seventh in the ACC (37th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 73rd-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing a status quo that still likely resides above the bubble if the selections were made today.
Next game: vs. Notre Dame (Tuesday)
Work to do (3)
Updated: Feb. 1
The Hurricanes’ chances had dipped after recent losses at Clemson (excusable) and to FSU and Cal at home (less so). They needed a return to the win column with Saturday’s victory over Boston College. They remain one of the most bubble-tastic teams in the country, with a mid-40s résumé quality nationally (eighth in the ACC), and consensus model at-large odds around 60%. The BPI has them facing the 65th-hardest remaining schedule, but with five more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins.
Next game: vs. North Carolina (Tuesday)
Updated: Feb. 7, 2:10 p.m.
The Hokies’ conditional at-large odds have been falling — they were down to 27% heading into the weekend– and they fell even more after their loss to NC State on Saturday. That means they are currently tracking to miss the field if their season continues at the same pace. Though their record isn’t dissimilar to that of SMU or Miami, Virginia Tech has a tougher future schedule (ninth hardest in the ACC) and only ranks borderline top 60 in the predictive metrics. That doesn’t portend a tourney nod unless the Hokies pull off some upsets over their remaining regular-season schedule.
Next game: at Clemson (Wednesday)
Updated: Feb. 7, 10:05 p.m.
Recent wins over North Carolina, Stanford, Miami and Georgia Tech vaulted Cal into bubble territory, but Saturday’s loss to Clemson was likely a wake-up call. The Golden Bears surrendered a 23-1 run in the first half, and the Tigers never looked back. Cal still sits in the 40s on the résumé ranking, has three Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and faces the ACC’s second-easiest remaining schedule. It helps that fellow bubble team Virginia Tech lost Saturday, too. But with a consensus at-large probability below 30%, the Bears are tracking to be on the outside looking in.
Next game: at Syracuse (Wednesday)
Long shots
Stanford Cardinal
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
BIG 12
7.4 expected bids (6.4 at-large)
Locks (6)
Arizona Wildcats
Iowa State Cyclones
Houston Cougars
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
Should be in (1)
Updated: Feb. 8, 4:15 p.m.
With so many of the conference’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have 100% conditional at-large odds in the model consensus — the Big 12 bubble picture really comes down to which team could be the seventh in. The Knights remain in the driver’s seat for that slot despite back-to-back losses at Houston and Cincinnati over the past week. They rank around 30th in the résumé average, while only one other non-lock Big 12 team (Oklahoma State) is even in the top 50. Despite the recent defeats, the Knights are still tracking for more than 20 wins and will get the chance to regroup and bolster their tournament chances against a more winnable sequence of upcoming games against West Virginia, TCU and Utah.
Next game: vs. West Virginia (Saturday)
Work to do (4)
Updated: Feb. 7, 6:02 p.m.
The Cowboys’ lopsided loss at the nation’s No. 1 team, Arizona, put a damper on their win over AJ Dybantsa and BYU earlier in the week. They had been creeping toward the top 40 in the résumé ranking, which was eighth best in the conference, just on the edge of how many bids the Big 12 could have. The models are still comparatively low on Oklahoma State, though, because its predictive ranking (mid-50s) is so much worse than some of its bubble rivals; it also faces the conference’s third-toughest remaining schedule.
Next game: at Arizona State (Tuesday)
Updated: Feb. 7, 5:53 p.m.
Baylor joined the bubble fray after beating Colorado by 19 on Wednesday — its second win in a row after snapping a recent slump of seven losses in eight games. But the Bears’ failed attempt to erase Iowa State’s 15-point lead in the final three minutes of Saturday’s loss cut into their recent gains. The Bears have a pretty mixed résumé at this point — three Quadrant 1 wins but a ninth-place rank in résumé average in a Big 12 that might not have eight bids — but they boast a decent ranking (44th) in the predictive metrics and will get a few more shots at signature upsets coming up.
Next game: vs. BYU (Tuesday)
Updated: Feb. 8, 3:15 p.m.
WVU certainly faces an uphill climb to get back to the tournament for the first time since 2023, and Sunday’s loss at home to Texas Tech gave back some of the gains from Thursday’s win at Cincinnati. The model consensus gives the Mountaineers just around a 10% at-large shot on average, and they reside outside the top 60 in the résumé rankings. West Virginia does have two wins against Quadrant 1 foes — including one against Quadrant 1A Kansas last month — but they sit below Baylor and TCU in the predictive ranking. WVU will get four more chances to add Quadrant 1 wins and will need to win some of them to get closer to a tourney-bound track.
Next game: at UCF (Saturday)
Updated: Feb. 7, 5:57 p.m.
After a recent skid in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs are facing a deficit in the record and résumé departments relative to UCF and Oklahoma State — and the rest of the tournament bubble. Their case isn’t without merits, which include three Quadrant 1 wins, including a Quadrant 1A win over Florida, and they face the Big 12’s easiest remaining schedule (56th hardest nationally). Still barely floating above “long shot” territory, TCU picked up a much-needed win over Kansas State on Saturday to keep hope alive.
Next game: vs. Iowa State (Tuesday)
Long shots
Cincinnati Bearcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
BIG EAST
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
Locks (3)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
Should be in (0)
None
Work to do (1)
Updated: Feb. 7, 8:13 p.m.
The season is reaching a critical point for Shaheen Holloway’s team after it blew a 10-point second-half lead to Creighton on Saturday — the Pirates’ sixth loss in eight games. They already entered the weekend below 20% at-large odds in the forecast composite, sitting outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win (against NC State). They will have a chance to rack up wins with the 60th-hardest remaining schedule, but even then, an at-large case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids.
Next game: vs. Providence (Wednesday)
Long shots
Creighton Bluejays
Butler Bulldogs
OTHERS
Locks (2)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Should be in (3)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Updated: Feb. 7, 10:13 p.m.
The Aggies survived as road favorites against Wyoming on Saturday, padding what was already a strong résumé. Per the BPI, they are big favorites to get in as the Mountain West’s AQ with a 48% chance (no other team is above 15%). But if that doesn’t happen, they would still almost certainly be tourney-bound should the Mountain West be awarded at least two total bids. (That has happened every year since 2017.) They rank top 30 in the résumé rankings and have a trio of Quadrant 1 wins over VCU, Boise State and, most recently, New Mexico (by 20 points in Albuquerque). They are also the third-best mid-major in the predictive ratings. Utah State could join Saint Louis in the “lock” category fairly soon.
Next game: vs. Fresno State (Tuesday)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 8, 8:34 a.m.
Saint Mary’s hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament in five seasons, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 33rd in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry only a consensus 76% at-large probability, likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than that of Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. They also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for last Saturday’s loss at Gonzaga when the teams meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s. But back-to-back wins over San Diego and San Francisco have them back on the victory bus.
Next game: vs. Pepperdine (Wednesday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 7, 8:13 p.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch, as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids — which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons, but could this year — and how much the committee should value head-to-head wins versus overall résumé quality. The Broncos’ chances continue to rise, however, with 71% consensus at-large odds and the 40th résumé ranking, which earns them “should be in” status for now. Their defense put the clamps on Washington State late Saturday to claim their eighth consecutive win (and 12th in 13 games). And they will get additional cracks at both Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga later this month.
Next game: vs. Seattle (Wednesday)
Work to do (7)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: Feb. 10, 7:32 a.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same season that Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat itself? After Arizona’s loss, Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season. It is true that Miami is a borderline top-90 team in the predictive ratings (Akron ranks higher in the MAC) that has run up an undefeated record against the 347th-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and Miami got another one Saturday against Marshall in a more comfortable fashion than its recent closer victory over Buffalo.
Next game: vs. Ohio (Friday)
Updated: Feb. 8, 8:34 a.m.
Saturday was a good day for SDSU: The Aztecs beat Air Force, and conference bubble rival New Mexico fell to Boise State. That said, the Aztecs are still one of the bubbliest of bubble teams. They sit 46th nationally in résumé ranking, third in the conference standings and their consensus at-large chances are almost exactly 50-50. The Mountain West could feasibly send at least three teams to the tournament this year (the conference has sent at least four teams in each of the past four seasons). With a fairly large gap in at-large odds over the next-best MW team (New Mexico at 27%), the Aztecs would figure to be in decent enough shape if they keep winning.
Next game: vs. Nevada (Saturday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 8, 8:34 a.m.
Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos may no longer have the inside track to being the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant after Saturday’s heartbreaker against Boise State at The Pit dropped their consensus at-large odds to just 27%, a massive decline of 24 percentage points. New Mexico does have roughly the same résumé ranking as San Diego State, and the teams face fairly equivalent schedules from here on out. The primary blemish for the Lobos is their head-to-head loss at the Aztecs on Jan. 17, which they won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.
Next game: at Grand Canyon (Wednesday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 7, 7 a.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (21% consensus at-large) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season, in part because the Rams are 0-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents with only one remaining shot at changing that (at Saint Louis on Feb. 20). However, the Rams are on the edge of bubble territory in overall résumé — they rank 55th nationally — and their remaining schedule is set up for plenty more wins, so they can certainly add to their case. They seemed intent on doing just that while hosting Dayton on Friday night, riding a 31-9 run to close out the first half and a season-high 26 points from Jadrian Tracey to beat the Flyers by 26.
Next game: at La Salle (Wednesday)
Boise State Broncos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 8, 8:47 a.m.
The Broncos have come on strong recently, elevating themselves into the “work to do” category with wins in six of seven games, including Saturday’s critical one-point victory at fellow bubble squad New Mexico. They’ve tripled their conditional at-large odds in the past week — but before we get too excited, that still leaves them at 15% odds, with a résumé ranking outside the top 60. They belong here for now, and will get further chances to build their case to the committee in the next month.
Next Game: vs. UNLV (Friday)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American)
Updated: Feb. 10, 7:32 a.m.
The Golden Hurricane have been a darling of the bracket watchers this season, bouncing back from a few early losses in conference play to win seven in a row — but that streak was halted Sunday at South Florida, complicating Tulsa’s tourney push. The Hurricane were already in a borderline “long shot” zone entering the day, as the consensus forecast assigned them around a 15% chance to grab an at-large bid. That number fell into the single-digits following the USF loss. They rank borderline top-50 in the résumé rankings — within striking distance of the bubble cutoff — but the South Florida game was their best chance to add a quality win before the conference tournament. Next Saturday’s visit to Wichita State now looms large as their last chance to impress the committee with a good win.
Next game: vs. UAB (Wednesday)
Long shots
Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
Grand Canyon Lopes (MW)
George Mason Patriots (A-10)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Liberty Flames (Conference USA)
McNeese Cowboys (Southland)
Yale Bulldogs (Ivy League)
Akron Zips (MAC)
Dayton Flyers (A-10)
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Southland)
Glossary of terms
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Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
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Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
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Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
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Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
The first half of the Elite Eight is set with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punching their tickets Thursday. Who could join them in the regional finals of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?
ESPN reporters on-site in Chicago and Washington, D.C. tracking Friday’s Sweet 16 action in real-time.
Jump to: Game previews, predictions
SWEET 16 LIVE TRACKER
SWEET 16 PREVIEWS
All times Eastern.
9:45 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: UConn 68-64
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn 70-65
How Michigan State can advance to Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate the most headlines during the NCAA tournament, but coaching matchups are equally — if not more — impactful. During a tenure that began in 1995, Tom Izzo has developed an uncanny ability to zero in on an opposing team’s top players and create problems for them. That’s the Spartans’ ticket to another Elite Eight.
Izzo’s primary mission against UConn is to limit Tarris Reed Jr.’s impact on the game. The Huskies are a different team when he’s a dominant presence in the post. If Reed is grabbing offensive rebounds and giving them an abundance of second-chance opportunities, Michigan State will be in a tough spot. The good news for the Spartans is that they are connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point attempts and capitalizing on second-chance opportunities with a No. 10 national ranking in offensive rebounding rate. It will be key for them to hit more 3s, extend UConn’s defense and create more paths to the basket for Jeremy Fears Jr. & Co. They have to give UConn a reason to guard on the perimeter — if the Spartans just allow the Huskies to sit in the lane, challenge shots around the rim and grab rebounds, Michigan State could lose.
Izzo has been in this position before — against better teams — and won. His experience will matter in a matchup against Dan Hurley.
How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Izzo, UConn will have to show up as the top-notch defensive outfit that held UCLA to just a 39% clip inside the arc in the second round. The Huskies’ win over the Bruins served as a reminder that they can be a great defensive team when they want to be. In the Big Ten tournament, UCLA had produced 132 points per 100 possessions in a win over Michigan State. In the round of 32, the Bruins — who played without leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) — scored only 57 points, their second-lowest total of the season. UCLA star Donovan Dent had nine assists but also finished 2-for-9 shooting with a pair of turnovers. That’s the same attention UConn will need to give Fears. When he’s comfortable, Michigan State’s offense soars. The Huskies can’t let that happen.
On offense, Braylon Mullins could be an X factor. Reed had a double-double against UCLA but not the historic numbers he put up against Furman in the first round (31 points, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-high 27 points against the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. scoring two points combined. If Reed and Karaban can create a balanced inside-outside attack, Michigan State will have to find a way to disrupt that, which could give Mullins — who is averaging 14.5 points in two NCAA tournament games — more freedom and opportunities to make plays and create off the dribble or on off-ball screens.
The Huskies have a multitude of options to score, and as long as most of them are effective, they can get back to the Elite Eight. — Medcalf
10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Iowa State 67-65
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa State 74-68
How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa State, Tennessee will have to play the same disciplined defense that stopped Virginia in the final minutes of Sunday’s second-round game. That task begins with Felix Okpara, who had four blocks against the Cavaliers and altered other shots, including a late drive by Thijs De Ridder that Okpara blocked during Virginia’s comeback attempt. Opposing players had made only 30% of their shots around the rim against Okpara entering Sunday’s game, per Synergy Sports data. He’ll have to protect the rim against Iowa State, which had a significant advantage in paint points against Kentucky (34-20) — but he won’t have to do it alone.
Tennessee has the personnel to handle every one-on-one matchup defensively. The Vols can guard at every spot. They will have to put pressure on Tamin Lipsey, sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson, if he plays, to win. That defensive effort coupled with standout performances from Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament would be the formula for a Tennessee trip to the Elite Eight.
How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or without Jefferson, Iowa State will have the same blueprint against Tennessee: Move the ball to find the best shot on offense, force turnovers with defensive pressure and score on fast breaks. Although they didn’t have Jefferson, who is a game-time decision because of an ankle injury, the Cyclones forced 20 turnovers in their second-round win over Kentucky. Playing through Lipsey — who finished with 26 points, 10 assists and only three turnovers against Kentucky — the Cyclones registered 150 points per 100 possessions and made 63% of their shots after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsey’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1 or better.
Gillespie and Ament combined for five turnovers in Tennessee’s second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State can pressure that duo into the same mistakes Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers combined) made for Kentucky, even if Jefferson sits out another game. That’s how the Cyclones can advance. — Medcalf
LONDON — However Ben White imagined his return to the England setup would play out, not once could he have pictured this.
Booed by some supporters when introduced as a 69th-minute substitute, he then marked his comeback after a four-year absence with his first international goal — only to be booed even more.
And just when it looked as though his efforts had salvaged victory from a thoroughly abject collective display, White conceded a stoppage-time penalty, which Federico Valverde converted to give Uruguay a 1-1 draw at Wembley Stadium.
Even before White stepped onto the field, his presence in the England squad for this window was not without controversy.
He declined to play for England ever since leaving the 2022 World Cup early for what the Football Association described at the time as “personal reasons.” Various outlets, including ESPN, reported at the time that White had in fact fallen out with a member of the coaching staff, and although Gareth Southgate later publicly denied any bust-up, the Arsenal defender subsequently refused a call-up and did not play for England again.
That was, until Friday.
England manager Thomas Tuchel did not select White in his initial expanded 35-man squad for this camp, but Jarell Quansah‘s injury triggered a surprise late inclusion. Tuchel justified the decision by saying “everybody deserves a second chance” following talks with White in recent months, but there were many among the 80,581 crowd who clearly did not agree.
“I [was told] that he was booed,” Tuchel said. “I didn’t hear it on the field because I was involved in the changes and instructions. It cannot be the majority. There were some boos and some mixed reception for him, which I am disappointed about because, of course, protect our players.
“He was excellent in camp. He deserved to come on. He deserved also to start and got us almost the winner. But I also understood that it happened to other players before here.
“He needs to take it on the chin,” Tuchel said. “We will always protect him, and hopefully we can put it behind [us] because he is ready to write some new chapters. We are ready to give him the chance, so hopefully everyone can move on and accept it.”
White’s roller-coaster cameo contrasted markedly with England’s flat-line performance that preceded it.
Tuchel had talked up the merits of his split-squad idea — 11 players were given this week to rest and occupied a Wembley box together here before resuming training ahead of Tuesday’s friendly against Japan — by framing this as a key audition for a “plane ticket” to the World Cup.
1:44
Burley slams ‘awful’ England after draw with Uruguay
Craig Burley reacts to England’s 1-1 draw with Uruguay at Wembley.
What greeted the players instead were paper planes. In many ways, this was a throwback to the dark days of years gone by: desperately uninspired football and fans expressing their discontent by throwing folded paper at the pitch, waving phone lights like they’re at a Coldplay gig and booing whichever player they had in their crosshairs.
Southgate worked exceptionally hard to move England on from nights like this, and although there were the occasional nonevents, by and large he achieved it.
And Tuchel will hope White is a unique case. Perhaps part of it was that his selection came at the expense of Trent Alexander-Arnold, a popular and decorated player for Liverpool and Real Madrid yet one who has never fully been trusted by Southgate and now Tuchel.
But more likely, it is White’s perceived indifference in playing for his country. The accusation of insouciance is difficult to shake, and these supporters, many of whom are facing bills running into the tens of thousands to follow England at this summer’s World Cup, do not take kindly to any ambiguous loyalty.
2:09
Tuchel: Trent must accept England squad decision
Thomas Tuchel explained why he left Real Madrid defender Trent Alexander-Arnold out of the latest England squad.
The team’s overall level of performance did not help the mood, either. Phil Foden was given a chance — perhaps his final chance — to stake a claim for the No. 10 role, but he could not get England playing. What he got for his trouble was an appalling tackle early in the second half from Ronald Araújo that left Tuchel incensed but somehow went entirely unpunished. Foden was subsequently substituted due to injury.
England were equally irate at the decision to award a spot kick after VAR review for White’s challenge on substitute Federico Viñas, a decision Harry Maguire branded a “ridiculous penalty.”
German referee Sven Jablonski appeared to give Manuel Ugarte two yellow cards but not send the Manchester United midfielder off, with the officials later saying the second one was in fact rescinded.
“I think it was not a good performance [from the referee] at all throughout the match,” Tuchel said.
“And I cannot understand that the tackle like this [on Foden] is not even checked. I think the penalty in the end was very, very soft and then there were like debates that a player got two yellow cards in the match and not being sent off. OK, bad day at the office.”
But once the refereeing row subsides, England will reflect on an evening when few individuals pressed their claims. James Trafford and James Garner made their debuts. Fikayo Tomori appeared for the first time in 2½ years, Maguire for the first time in 18 months, Dominic Calvert-Lewin as a substitute for the first time in almost five years.
Garner and Maguire were probably the standouts on a very ordinary night. Tuchel has vowed to harness the Premier League trend of set-piece prowess, and so in that context, England’s goal coming from a corner will be a source of encouragement.
He was, in fact, quite upbeat about the performance as a whole, aside from Foden and Noni Madueke both leaving the field prematurely, the latter seen wearing a knee brace as he departed the stadium.
“I learned a lot because it was a tough opponent — you just see it in the details, you learn a lot and you see the level,” Tuchel said. “We knew it would be a difficult opponent, and we needed this kind of test.”
It might have been one Tuchel anticipated but White, for certain, did not.
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Jordan Reid
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Jordan Reid
NFL draft analyst
- Jordan Reid is an NFL draft analyst for ESPN, providing in-depth scouting on the nation’s top pro prospects. Jordan joined ESPN in 2021 and also contributes to SportsCenter and ESPN Radio. He played quarterback at North Carolina Central University and then went on to coach there from 2014-18.
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Field Yates
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Field Yates
ESPN NFL Insider
- Field Yates is a fantasy football expert and NFL draft analyst for ESPN. You can find him on Fantasy Football Now on Sunday mornings and regularly on NFL Live throughout the week, as well as the Fantasy Focus and First Draft podcasts. A graduate of Wesleyan University (CT) and native of Weston, Mass., Yates has previous experience interning with the New England Patriots on both their coaching and scouting staffs.
Multiple Authors
Pro days are underway across the country, as we’re less than a month away from the 2026 NFL draft on April 23. Amid a ton of buzz about early picks and the quarterback class, we asked NFL draft analysts Matt Miller, Jordan Reid and Field Yates to break down the latest intel from around the league.
How likely is Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson to go in Round 1? Does Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love make sense for the Titans at No. 4? Who could rise into the top 10 picks by April, and which underrated prospects could be available late? We get into all that and then let Miller, Reid and Yates predict the best first rounds for teams with multiple Day 1 picks. How can the Browns, Chiefs, Cowboys, Dolphins and Jets win the day?
Finally, our experts empty their scouting notebooks with what they’re hearing, seeing and thinking ahead of April. Let’s start with the latest on Simpson, who said he’s “absolutely” a first-round pick at Alabama’s pro day.
Jump to a section:
Ty Simpson | Jeremiyah Love
Who will move into top 10?
Day 3 sleepers | First-round mocks
Emptying our notebook: What we’re hearing
What percentage chance would you put on Ty Simpson going in Round 1?
Miller: 25%. As the draft order stands right now, no team in Round 1 makes sense to me as a Simpson landing spot. No team in the top 10 that needs a quarterback is likely to reach for him, nor should they. Even the Rams are drafting too early at No. 13 overall. Maybe a team trades back into the first round for him, but that’s a risky proposition to give up draft capital — especially if it includes 2027 picks.
Reid: 75%. Considering the lack of QB talent at the top of the draft, I’d be surprised if Simpson wasn’t selected in the first round. But I agree with Matt that there are no logical landing spots in the first 16 picks. One idea that I floated in my last mock draft was the Cardinals trading back into Round 1 at No. 28 for Simpson. With Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew at the top of the depth chart, they are obviously in need of a young QB.
Yates: 90%. I borrowed from Jordan’s idea of the Cardinals trading up in my last mock draft, but I’m going a step further than him on the percentage. Simpson is the clear-cut second-best QB prospect, his first half of last season was far too strong and there are too many teams that need a QB in the first round for him to not be selected on Thusrday.
Could the Titans really take Jeremiyah Love at No. 4?
Reid: Love is my No. 1 prospect in this class, but I just don’t see it happening. General manager Mike Borgonzi joined Tennessee after 16 seasons in Kansas City, where the Chiefs always valued premium positions early. Don’t be surprised to see another defensive player added here for new coach Robert Saleh.
Yates: They absolutely could. Tennessee’s busy offseason has opened the board up, as it added all over its defense and signed wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson to a four-year deal. Love is my No. 2 prospect, and many NFL executives and scouts believe he is Tennessee’s most likely pick. With that said, what other teams think the Titans are going to do doesn’t mean much. This will come down to whether Tennessee is confident in the rest of its roster.
Miller: Yes, they could and should take Love at No. 4. The Titans were aggressive enough in free agency to enter the draft without a must-pick position here. Love is the type of transcendent prospect who the Titans can build their offense around, giving quarterback Cam Ward a viable threat in the run and pass game. And from what I’ve heard, if Love falls past Tennessee, the Giants will likely take him at No. 5.
Who isn’t a consensus top-10 pick right now but could end up there by draft time?
Yates: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama. Consensus is not easy to find right now, but one name that I haven’t seen linked to the top 10 as often is Proctor. He has incredible traits, led by his mammoth size at 6-foot-7 and 352 pounds with nifty athleticism. He could be in play for the Browns at No. 6 and the Chiefs at No. 9.
Miller: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia. He might rise into the top 10 based on positional value and need. The 6-foot-7, 315-pounder was just a one-year starter, but his athletic tools are that of a high-end NFL starter on the left side. Like Proctor, the Browns or Chiefs could take a chance on Freeling.
Reid: Keldric Faulk, DL, Auburn. He fits the exact archetype that teams covet near the top of the draft. At 6-foot-5, 276 pounds, Faulk’s pass-rush production took a step back in 2025, but he’s only 21 and one of the best run defenders in the class. When speaking to scouts, Greg Rousseau and Mykel Williams are two NFL comparisons for him. The Chiefs at No. 9 and the Bengals at No. 10 overall are two teams to watch here.
Who is your favorite Day 3 sleeper right now?
Miller: Will Lee III, CB, Texas A&M. Lee was a consistent performer throughout college and jumps off the tape in press coverage, where he played 240 of his snaps over three seasons. That talent was on display at the Senior Bowl, too. Lee’s 4.52-second time in the 40-yard dash at the combine didn’t help his draft stock, but he’s a potential NFL starter.
Reid: Adam Randall, RB, Clemson. He made a seamless transition from wide receiver to the backfield this past season. Because of that background, the 6-foot-3, 233-pounder could be a movable piece all over the field. Randall also has A+ value on special teams with experience as a return specialist. I have a strong Round 4 grade on him.
Yates: Dae’Quan Wright, TE, Ole Miss. Much like the running back position last year, there are going to be tight ends that drop because of the incredible depth of the position. Wright played an important role for Ole Miss this past season, hauling in five touchdowns on 39 catches. He’s a snappy route runner who’s comfortable hauling in catches outside of his frame.
The perfect first round for teams with multiple Day 1 picks
Reid’s ideal picks for the New York Jets
2. David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech
16. Makai Lemon, WR, USC
The Jets should take two players who can be impactful right away. A highly productive player off the edge, Bailey’s explosive get-off is something this pass rush lacks. And for help opposite Garrett Wilson, Lemon is a steady option who could move inside to the slot. His sure hands, formational versatility and competitiveness after the catch make him an easy fit in new coordinator Frank Reich’s offense.
6. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
24. Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
In an unpredictable draft, Tate is one of the surer prospects. The field-stretching wideout is an excellent route runner who dropped just one pass in 2025. Simply put, the Browns need his offensive firepower. Cleveland will have a good debate about taking an OT or WR with the first pick, but they’d be excited to land Lomu in this perfect scenario. He surrendered six pressures and zero sacks at left tackle in 2025. Plus, he is nimble in space to get to the second level as a run blocker.
Miller’s ideal picks for the Miami Dolphins
11. Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
30. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
The best route for the Dolphins would be a complete rebuild of the secondary after allowing the highest completion percentage in 2025 (72%) and trading safety Minkah Fitzpatrick again this offseason. McCoy, who sat out the 2025 season with an ACL injury, profiles as a true CB1 with shutdown ability. McNeil-Warren would give new coach Jeff Hafley a long, rangy safety who could play in the box or at free safety.
9. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
30. T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson
After losing Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to the Rams, cornerback is at the top of Kansas City’s needs. Delane blew scouts away with a 4.38 40-yard dash time at LSU’s pro day Monday and cemented his status as the top cornerback in the draft. And after an underwhelming season, Parker has had a strong predraft process. Dense and powerful rushers are prioritized in coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme, making Parker an ideal fit.
Miller’s ideal picks for the Dallas Cowboys
12. Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami
20. Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
Dallas signed Sam Williams to a one-year deal and traded for Rashan Gary, but this is still a roster that needs another speed rusher. Bain would bring exactly that, as well as power to the position. At safety, Dallas signed Jalen Thompson and has Malik Hooker under contract for one more season. They could use another playmaker on the back end; Thieneman had eight interceptions and two forced fumbles in three seasons at Purdue and Oregon.
What else did you hear and see this week?
Yates’ notes:
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LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier had his pro day Monday, which was an important showcase for him after a disappointing season. Nussmeier threw the football with the accuracy you would expect — the hallmark of his great 2024 season was excellent anticipation and accuracy — and observers noted how he looked healthy, which Nussmeier himself noted at the conclusion of the event. Health was an issue for him this past season, but seeing him look like this helped strengthen his case to be taken as QB3 in the upcoming draft.
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A prospect who I’ll bang the drum for is Georgia Tech guard Keylan Rutledge, who is No. 48 on my board. Perhaps no player embodied the toughness and identity of the Georgia Tech program quite as well as Rutledge over the past two seasons. And he showed at the combine that he’s a quality athlete. Scouts I talk to believe he’s a strong bet to go in the second round.
Miller’s notes:
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Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson opted to not work out at the combine and will not participate in Friday’s pro day, but a scout told me he will work out for teams on April 17. That’s just six days before the start of Round 1, and Field reported Wednesday that Tyson will do only positional work. A potential top-15 pick, Tyson has been plagued by hamstring injuries that limited his 2025 season to just nine games.
Reid’s notes:
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Alabama’s pro day took place Wednesday and multiple scouts in attendance came away impressed with how the ball came off Simpson’s hand. “I thought his arm was a little above average on tape, but it’s much stronger than I anticipated after seeing him up close,” said an NFC executive.
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After Faulk didn’t participate in the 40-yard dash at the combine, evaluators were eager to his true speed at Auburn’s pro day Tuesday. Scouts that I talked to had him timed in the range of 4.67 to 4.69 seconds. He also completed 17 reps on the bench press and participated in positional drills.
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At Miami’s pro day Monday, edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor took part only in positional drills, but offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa did run a 40-yard dash. Scouts that I talked to had him in the 5.10 to 5.12-second range on both runs. Mauigoa is my top-ranked offensive tackle and could go as high as No. 3 to the Cardinals.
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