The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? They have roughly five weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their case. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.

We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)

We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:

• Locks: Teams that would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut (which some inevitably still will). 28 current teams

• Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline, if not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 12 current teams

• Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip. 20 current teams

• Long shots: Teams that would need to outperform expectations or benefit from chaos. There is little — though not zero — chance these ones will make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.

Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.

Note: All times Eastern. Only expected at-large bids are listed; each conference will receive one additional berth with an AQ.

Jump to a conference:
Big Ten | SEC | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors

BIG TEN

10.0 expected bids (9.0 at-large)

Locks (5)

Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans

Should be in (4)

Iowa Hawkeyes

Updated: Feb. 8, 5:16 p.m.

Iowa continues its rise up the résumé rankings to move closer to “lock” status. The Hawkeyes bolstered their case with a Quadrant 1A win at Indiana in mid-January, starting a six-game win streak that kept rolling Sunday with a victory over a stubborn Northwestern squad. What’s scary is they’re even better than their résumé ranking gives them credit for, checking in as borderline top 20 in our average of predictive ratings — which in turn raises their potential going forward. Their schedule does get more difficult looking ahead, jumping from 71st to 24th nationally, according to the BPI. Wins like the Hawkeyes have compiled recently, though, have them trending solidly toward a return to March Madness.

Next game: at Maryland (Wednesday)

---

Indiana Hoosiers

Updated: Feb. 10, 7:20 a.m.

Darling of the forecast models — which now average out to a conditional at-large probability in the mid-80% range despite the team’s borderline top-40 résumé ranking — Indiana bolstered its chances with a thrilling overtime win over Wisconsin on Saturday, then rolled all over Oregon on Monday. The latter was the Hoosiers’ fifth victory in six games, a stretch that includes three wins over opponents in Quadrants 1 and 2. With only the 8th-hardest remaining schedule in the Big Ten and a top-30 ranking in the predictive metrics, the Hoosiers have a good path to the tourney in front of them.

Next game: at Illinois (Sunday)

---

Wisconsin Badgers

Updated: Feb. 7, 2:38 p.m.

The Badgers showed impressive resolve Saturday, overcoming an early double-digit deficit to force overtime at Indiana. But the one-point loss (on a pair of Lamar Wilkerson free throws) stalled a hot streak of seven victories in their previous eight games. They still sit around 40th in the national consensus résumé ranking, though, and eighth in a Big Ten currently tracking for 10 bids. The schedule does not let up anytime soon, with four straight Quadrant 1 contests still coming up, including three straight against Quadrant 1A, but wins over that stretch could help make up for the heartbreak in Bloomington.

Next game: at Illinois (Tuesday)

---

UCLA Bruins

Updated: Feb. 8, 8:02 a.m.

The Bruins recently saw their 14-game home win streak snapped in double overtime against Indiana, but they’ve gotten right back to winning with consecutive victories over Rutgers and, on Saturday, Washington. In the big picture, their résumé ranks in the mid-40s nationally and 10th in the Big Ten, though that might be underselling their chances. The forecast model composite thinks they’re more likely to get a bid than not (76%) on the basis of two Quadrant 1 wins and a future projection that calls for them to end up above 20 wins on the season. That said, many high-leverage games remain for UCLA, and it faces the Big Ten’s third-toughest remaining schedule.

Next game: at Michigan (Saturday)

Work to do (3)

USC Trojans

Updated: Feb. 8, 2:10 p.m.

USC continued building its case as a tourney contender with a back-and-forth win at Penn State on Sunday, behind freshman Alijah Arenas‘ second consecutive 20-point game (capped off by a buzzer-beater). If the season ended today, the Trojans would likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries comfortably: They’re a mid-30s team in the résumé rankings and sit seventh in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. The models are a bit less bullish (below 70% at-large), however, showing the Trojans as a mid-40s team in the predictive ratings with the nation’s 26th-hardest remaining schedule. But Eric Musselman’s team has now won four of five after a midseason skid, including résumé boosters over Wisconsin and Indiana.

Next game: at Ohio State (Wednesday)

---

Ohio State Buckeyes

Updated: Feb. 8, 3:07 p.m.

The Buckeyes went into Sunday sitting right on the bubble, ranked 48th in the national résumé rankings and 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. A lopsided home loss to archrival Michigan did them no favors, bringing their at-large odds down from 65% to closer to a coin flip. They are now 0-7 against Quadrant 1 teams, 0-4 versus Quadrant 1A, specifically. After following all but two of their wins since November with a loss, Ohio State is not as sure a tournament-bound team as it seemed earlier in the season.

Next game: vs. USC (Wednesday)

---

Washington Huskies

Updated: Feb. 8, 8:02 a.m.

The Huskies are tumbling further toward the “long shots” category, as a pair of losses to Iowa and UCLA dropped them to an 11% chance in the forecast model consensus. They are just 4-9 in Big Ten play and rank 12th in the conference on résumé (63rd nationally). But they also have a pair of wins over teams in the BPI top 50 — most recently adding what might have been their most impressive of the season, a 14-point road victory over Northwestern on Jan. 31. One other glimmer of hope for UW: It has the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule, though that also cuts against its ability to add signature wins.

Next game: vs. Penn State (Wednesday)

Long shots

None

SEC

9.5 expected bids (8.5 at-large)

Locks (6)

Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kentucky Wildcats

Should be in (3)

Auburn Tigers

Updated: Feb. 7, 6:25 p.m.

Auburn has several solid wins amid a difficult schedule (fifth hardest per the BPI) and remains mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average, but its standing is complicated by consecutive losses at Tennessee and then against Alabama at home Saturday. The model consensus thinks there’s still plenty of cushion to work with — it gives the Tigers greater than 90% at-large odds — but the BPI is projecting them to fall short of 20 wins. The most brutal stretch of their schedule is almost over — with back-to-back Quadrant 1 games against Vanderbilt and Arkansas coming up — then coach Steven Pearl can assess where the Tigers go from there.

Next game: vs. Vanderbilt (Tuesday)

---

Georgia Bulldogs

Updated: Feb. 7, 8:03 p.m.

The Bulldogs desperately needed a victory after recent losses to Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M dropped their odds — and they got it during Saturday’s visit to LSU, winning by double-digits. Still in the mid-30s of the overall résumé rankings with a quartet of wins against the BPI top 50, they still entered the weekend ranked ninth among SEC teams in résumé average (out of what could be only a nine-bid conference). They also jump from 75th-hardest strength of schedule nationally to 16th moving forward, and they’re projected to lose more remaining games than they win.

Next game: vs. Florida (Wednesday)

---

Texas A&M Aggies

Updated: Feb. 7, 10:45 p.m.

Despite back-to-back losses to Alabama and Florida, most of the models in the forecast consensus still consider the Aggies to be in solid shape (80% or higher) for an at-large bid. They are projected by the BPI to finish the regular season with at least 21 wins, which should be enough to make the tournament. They’re still just eighth in the résumé ranking average out of what could be as few as nine tournament-bound teams from the SEC, though there’s a big gap between them and 10th-ranked Texas.

Next game: vs. Missouri (Wednesday)

Work to do (2)

Texas Longhorns

Updated: Feb. 7, 5:34 p.m.

Despite ranking in the mid-30s of the predictive metrics nationally, Sean Miller’s team is in a tough numbers game after a handful of early defeats in SEC play. The Longhorns seem to be moving in the right direction, though, with three straight wins (and four in five). That includes Saturday’s victory over Ole Miss, courtesy of a game-ending 14-0 run that turned a three-point deficit into an 11-point win over the final 3½ minutes. They are still 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (around 50th nationally), and their schedule strength jumps from 64th hardest looking back to 19th hardest going forward. Three Quadrant 1 wins, including two for Quadrant 1A, are helpful, but the Horns need to either keep the winning streak going against a tough set of opponents, or hope the SEC gets 10 bids.

Next game: at Missouri (Saturday)

---

Missouri Tigers

Updated: Feb. 7, 3:15 p.m.

After a recent cold stretch, the Tigers won their second straight game (and third in four) with a dominant performance at South Carolina on Saturday. They still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average — a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10 tournament entries at most. Mizzou does have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and four against the BPI top 50. But even if its résumé is on par with that of Texas, Missouri is much lower in the predictive metrics, so outdueling the Longhorns with more wins remains a task easier said than done.

Next game: at Texas A&M (Wednesday)

Long shots

LSU Tigers, Ole Miss Rebels

ACC

7.9 expected bids (6.9 at-large)

Locks (6)

Duke Blue Devils
Louisville Cardinals
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Clemson Tigers
NC State Wolfpack

Should be in (1)

SMU Mustangs

Updated: Feb. 7, 5:35 p.m.

The Mustangs bounced back from consecutive losses, including an especially tough one hosting NC State, with a convincing win at Pittsburgh on Saturday to help stabilize their trajectory. Even after the recent losses, SMU still ranked seventh best in what could be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And while they are seventh in the ACC (37th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 73rd-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing a status quo that still likely resides above the bubble if the selections were made today.

Next game: vs. Notre Dame (Tuesday)

Work to do (3)

Miami Hurricanes

Updated: Feb. 1

The Hurricanes’ chances had dipped after recent losses at Clemson (excusable) and to FSU and Cal at home (less so). They needed a return to the win column with Saturday’s victory over Boston College. They remain one of the most bubble-tastic teams in the country, with a mid-40s résumé quality nationally (eighth in the ACC), and consensus model at-large odds around 60%. The BPI has them facing the 65th-hardest remaining schedule, but with five more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins.

Next game: vs. North Carolina (Tuesday)

---

Virginia Tech Hokies

Updated: Feb. 7, 2:10 p.m.

The Hokies’ conditional at-large odds have been falling — they were down to 27% heading into the weekend– and they fell even more after their loss to NC State on Saturday. That means they are currently tracking to miss the field if their season continues at the same pace. Though their record isn’t dissimilar to that of SMU or Miami, Virginia Tech has a tougher future schedule (ninth hardest in the ACC) and only ranks borderline top 60 in the predictive metrics. That doesn’t portend a tourney nod unless the Hokies pull off some upsets over their remaining regular-season schedule.

Next game: at Clemson (Wednesday)

---

California Golden Bears

Updated: Feb. 7, 10:05 p.m.

Recent wins over North Carolina, Stanford, Miami and Georgia Tech vaulted Cal into bubble territory, but Saturday’s loss to Clemson was likely a wake-up call. The Golden Bears surrendered a 23-1 run in the first half, and the Tigers never looked back. Cal still sits in the 40s on the résumé ranking, has three Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and faces the ACC’s second-easiest remaining schedule. It helps that fellow bubble team Virginia Tech lost Saturday, too. But with a consensus at-large probability below 30%, the Bears are tracking to be on the outside looking in.

Next game: at Syracuse (Wednesday)

Long shots

Stanford Cardinal
Wake Forest Demon Deacons

BIG 12

7.4 expected bids (6.4 at-large)

---

Locks (6)

Arizona Wildcats
Iowa State Cyclones
Houston Cougars
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars

Should be in (1)

UCF Knights

Updated: Feb. 8, 4:15 p.m.

With so many of the conference’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have 100% conditional at-large odds in the model consensus — the Big 12 bubble picture really comes down to which team could be the seventh in. The Knights remain in the driver’s seat for that slot despite back-to-back losses at Houston and Cincinnati over the past week. They rank around 30th in the résumé average, while only one other non-lock Big 12 team (Oklahoma State) is even in the top 50. Despite the recent defeats, the Knights are still tracking for more than 20 wins and will get the chance to regroup and bolster their tournament chances against a more winnable sequence of upcoming games against West Virginia, TCU and Utah.

Next game: vs. West Virginia (Saturday)

Work to do (4)

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Updated: Feb. 7, 6:02 p.m.

The Cowboys’ lopsided loss at the nation’s No. 1 team, Arizona, put a damper on their win over AJ Dybantsa and BYU earlier in the week. They had been creeping toward the top 40 in the résumé ranking, which was eighth best in the conference, just on the edge of how many bids the Big 12 could have. The models are still comparatively low on Oklahoma State, though, because its predictive ranking (mid-50s) is so much worse than some of its bubble rivals; it also faces the conference’s third-toughest remaining schedule.

Next game: at Arizona State (Tuesday)

---

Baylor Bears

Updated: Feb. 7, 5:53 p.m.

Baylor joined the bubble fray after beating Colorado by 19 on Wednesday — its second win in a row after snapping a recent slump of seven losses in eight games. But the Bears’ failed attempt to erase Iowa State’s 15-point lead in the final three minutes of Saturday’s loss cut into their recent gains. The Bears have a pretty mixed résumé at this point — three Quadrant 1 wins but a ninth-place rank in résumé average in a Big 12 that might not have eight bids — but they boast a decent ranking (44th) in the predictive metrics and will get a few more shots at signature upsets coming up.

Next game: vs. BYU (Tuesday)

---

West Virginia Mountaineers

Updated: Feb. 8, 3:15 p.m.

WVU certainly faces an uphill climb to get back to the tournament for the first time since 2023, and Sunday’s loss at home to Texas Tech gave back some of the gains from Thursday’s win at Cincinnati. The model consensus gives the Mountaineers just around a 10% at-large shot on average, and they reside outside the top 60 in the résumé rankings. West Virginia does have two wins against Quadrant 1 foes — including one against Quadrant 1A Kansas last month — but they sit below Baylor and TCU in the predictive ranking. WVU will get four more chances to add Quadrant 1 wins and will need to win some of them to get closer to a tourney-bound track.

Next game: at UCF (Saturday)

---

TCU Horned Frogs

Updated: Feb. 7, 5:57 p.m.

After a recent skid in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs are facing a deficit in the record and résumé departments relative to UCF and Oklahoma State — and the rest of the tournament bubble. Their case isn’t without merits, which include three Quadrant 1 wins, including a Quadrant 1A win over Florida, and they face the Big 12’s easiest remaining schedule (56th hardest nationally). Still barely floating above “long shot” territory, TCU picked up a much-needed win over Kansas State on Saturday to keep hope alive.

Next game: vs. Iowa State (Tuesday)

Long shots

Cincinnati Bearcats
Arizona State Sun Devils

BIG EAST

3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)

---

Locks (3)

UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats

Should be in (0)

None

Work to do (1)

Seton Hall Pirates

Updated: Feb. 7, 8:13 p.m.

The season is reaching a critical point for Shaheen Holloway’s team after it blew a 10-point second-half lead to Creighton on Saturday — the Pirates’ sixth loss in eight games. They already entered the weekend below 20% at-large odds in the forecast composite, sitting outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win (against NC State). They will have a chance to rack up wins with the 60th-hardest remaining schedule, but even then, an at-large case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids.

Next game: vs. Providence (Wednesday)

Long shots

Creighton Bluejays
Butler Bulldogs

OTHERS

Locks (2)

Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)

Should be in (3)

Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)

Updated: Feb. 7, 10:13 p.m.

The Aggies survived as road favorites against Wyoming on Saturday, padding what was already a strong résumé. Per the BPI, they are big favorites to get in as the Mountain West’s AQ with a 48% chance (no other team is above 15%). But if that doesn’t happen, they would still almost certainly be tourney-bound should the Mountain West be awarded at least two total bids. (That has happened every year since 2017.) They rank top 30 in the résumé rankings and have a trio of Quadrant 1 wins over VCU, Boise State and, most recently, New Mexico (by 20 points in Albuquerque). They are also the third-best mid-major in the predictive ratings. Utah State could join Saint Louis in the “lock” category fairly soon.

Next game: vs. Fresno State (Tuesday)

---

Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)

Updated: Feb. 8, 8:34 a.m.

Saint Mary’s hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament in five seasons, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 33rd in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry only a consensus 76% at-large probability, likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than that of Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. They also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for last Saturday’s loss at Gonzaga when the teams meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s. But back-to-back wins over San Diego and San Francisco have them back on the victory bus.

Next game: vs. Pepperdine (Wednesday)

---

Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)

Updated: Feb. 7, 8:13 p.m.

The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch, as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids — which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons, but could this year — and how much the committee should value head-to-head wins versus overall résumé quality. The Broncos’ chances continue to rise, however, with 71% consensus at-large odds and the 40th résumé ranking, which earns them “should be in” status for now. Their defense put the clamps on Washington State late Saturday to claim their eighth consecutive win (and 12th in 13 games). And they will get additional cracks at both Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga later this month.

Next game: vs. Seattle (Wednesday)

Work to do (7)

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)

Updated: Feb. 10, 7:32 a.m.

The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same season that Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat itself? After Arizona’s loss, Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season. It is true that Miami is a borderline top-90 team in the predictive ratings (Akron ranks higher in the MAC) that has run up an undefeated record against the 347th-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and Miami got another one Saturday against Marshall in a more comfortable fashion than its recent closer victory over Buffalo.

Next game: vs. Ohio (Friday)

---

San Diego State Aztecs (MW)

Updated: Feb. 8, 8:34 a.m.

Saturday was a good day for SDSU: The Aztecs beat Air Force, and conference bubble rival New Mexico fell to Boise State. That said, the Aztecs are still one of the bubbliest of bubble teams. They sit 46th nationally in résumé ranking, third in the conference standings and their consensus at-large chances are almost exactly 50-50. The Mountain West could feasibly send at least three teams to the tournament this year (the conference has sent at least four teams in each of the past four seasons). With a fairly large gap in at-large odds over the next-best MW team (New Mexico at 27%), the Aztecs would figure to be in decent enough shape if they keep winning.

Next game: vs. Nevada (Saturday)

---

New Mexico Lobos (MW)

Updated: Feb. 8, 8:34 a.m.

Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos may no longer have the inside track to being the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant after Saturday’s heartbreaker against Boise State at The Pit dropped their consensus at-large odds to just 27%, a massive decline of 24 percentage points. New Mexico does have roughly the same résumé ranking as San Diego State, and the teams face fairly equivalent schedules from here on out. The primary blemish for the Lobos is their head-to-head loss at the Aztecs on Jan. 17, which they won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.

Next game: at Grand Canyon (Wednesday)

---

VCU Rams (A-10)

Updated: Feb. 7, 7 a.m.

VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (21% consensus at-large) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season, in part because the Rams are 0-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents with only one remaining shot at changing that (at Saint Louis on Feb. 20). However, the Rams are on the edge of bubble territory in overall résumé — they rank 55th nationally — and their remaining schedule is set up for plenty more wins, so they can certainly add to their case. They seemed intent on doing just that while hosting Dayton on Friday night, riding a 31-9 run to close out the first half and a season-high 26 points from Jadrian Tracey to beat the Flyers by 26.

Next game: at La Salle (Wednesday)

---

Boise State Broncos (MW)

Updated: Feb. 8, 8:47 a.m.

The Broncos have come on strong recently, elevating themselves into the “work to do” category with wins in six of seven games, including Saturday’s critical one-point victory at fellow bubble squad New Mexico. They’ve tripled their conditional at-large odds in the past week — but before we get too excited, that still leaves them at 15% odds, with a résumé ranking outside the top 60. They belong here for now, and will get further chances to build their case to the committee in the next month.

Next Game: vs. UNLV (Friday)

---

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American)

Updated: Feb. 10, 7:32 a.m.

The Golden Hurricane have been a darling of the bracket watchers this season, bouncing back from a few early losses in conference play to win seven in a row — but that streak was halted Sunday at South Florida, complicating Tulsa’s tourney push. The Hurricane were already in a borderline “long shot” zone entering the day, as the consensus forecast assigned them around a 15% chance to grab an at-large bid. That number fell into the single-digits following the USF loss. They rank borderline top-50 in the résumé rankings — within striking distance of the bubble cutoff — but the South Florida game was their best chance to add a quality win before the conference tournament. Next Saturday’s visit to Wichita State now looms large as their last chance to impress the committee with a good win.

Next game: vs. UAB (Wednesday)

Long shots

Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
Grand Canyon Lopes (MW)
George Mason Patriots (A-10)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Liberty Flames (Conference USA)
McNeese Cowboys (Southland)
Yale Bulldogs (Ivy League)
Akron Zips (MAC)
Dayton Flyers (A-10)
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Southland)

Glossary of terms

• Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.

• Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).

• Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.

• Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.