Business
Tax season presents a boom-or-bust test for U.S. auto sales
Customers near a Ford Maverick pickup truck at a Ford dealership in Richmond, California, US, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
DETROIT – The strength of the U.S. automotive industry will face an early test this spring that has nothing to do with cars or trucks.
With tax season starting, industry experts are projecting that some Americans, many of whom have been priced out of the new vehicle market, will use anticipated higher tax returns to purchase a new or used vehicle.
Extra cash on hand could lend a needed boost to an industry that’s suffering from slowing vehicle sales — or it could reveal continued problems for the automotive industry with inflated prices and consumers still reluctant to spend on big-ticket items.
“Their new tax bill is actually going to be less, and they’re going to be getting more in their tax return. It’s going to be a little bit of a surprise, we think, for a lot of potential buyers out there,” said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough at a recent auto analyst conference.
The average IRS tax refund is up 10.9% so far this season, compared to the same point in 2025, according to early filing data. As of Feb. 6, the average refund amount was $2,290, compared with $2,065 reported about one year prior.
The increases were expected under tax changes by the Trump administration, including the One, Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July. That legislation removed taxes on overtime and tips and allowed eligible taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 in annual interest paid on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased, among other adjustments.
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Many of the tax changes were made retroactive to January 2025, which means taxpayers may have withheld more than they will ultimately owe.
“Although it’s a bit of an unknown, it feels like it could be really beneficial to vehicle sales, particularly in that sort of Q1-Q2 timeframe,” said David Oakley, GlobalData manager of Americas vehicle sales forecasts.
March is historically one of the top months for U.S. vehicle sales, especially for used vehicles. The month has represented 9.1% of annual new vehicle sales on average over the past 12 years, according to Cox, trailing only the month of December at 9.3% of sales.
Many of the recent tax changes also assist middle- and higher-income consumers who may decide to pull ahead a vehicle purchase. The industry saw a similar dynamic during the Covid pandemic when the Trump administration issued many Americans $1,400 stimulus checks.
Back then, though, federal interest rates were near zero compared to the current Federal Reserve funds rate of 3.5%–3.75% and inventory of new vehicles was low. Now, with higher borrowing costs, but improved inventory, the equation could be different.
More buyers are agreeing to longer-term loans amid higher financing costs and prices. Putting down extra cash ahead of time can help lower monthly payments, which Carmax’s Edmunds reports reached a record of $772 per month for new vehicles during the fourth quarter.
The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. was hovering around $50,000 toward the end of last year, up 30% from the start of 2020, according to Cox.
“What we don’t know is with consumer finance so stressed already, is that extra money already spent? Whether that’s going to be in the pockets. It’s a really mixed bag out there,” Chesbrough said.
Consumers could choose to use higher tax returns to pay off credit card debt — which nationally stands at a record level of $1.28 trillion, according to a report last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — or replenish their savings after a period of persistent inflation.
U.S. consumer confidence fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest level since May 2014, driven by intense anxiety over high prices and a weakening labor market.
“It’s only confident people, people who feel comfortable about their economic fortunes of the economy of the United States, that are going to be interested in taking out a $40,000 or $50,000 auto loan,” Chesbrough said. “It’s a very difficult situation right now.”
– CNBC’s Kate Dore contributed to this report.
Business
US Top Court Blocks Trump’s Tariff Orders: Does It Mean Zero Duties For Indian Goods?
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The verdict does not overturn all of Trump’s tariff actions as duties imposed on steel and aluminium under separate legal provisions remain intact.

US President Donald Trump and PM Modi | File Image
The US Supreme Court has struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff regime, ruling that the measures were imposed without legal backing.
In a 6-3 ruling, the court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the president to unilaterally impose broad, across-the-board tariffs.
The 1977 law allows the executive to regulate certain international economic transactions during a declared national emergency, but does not extend to blanket tariff actions, the court said.
Chief Justice John Roberts, who authored the majority opinion, said Congress has delegated tariff-setting powers only in limited and clearly defined circumstances.
He was joined by the court’s three liberal justices and conservative justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett. Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.
Also Read: US To Refund Billions? What Next After Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs
What The Ruling Means For India
The verdict does not overturn all of Trump’s tariff actions. Duties imposed on steel and aluminium under separate legal provisions remain intact. However, it invalidates two major categories of tariffs introduced using IEEPA.
These include the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, which carried a baseline rate of 10 per cent for most countries, and a separate 25 per cent levy imposed on select imports from Canada, China and Mexico over fentanyl-related concerns.
India had been subject to the reciprocal tariffs, with a 26 per cent rate announced on Trump’s “Liberation Day” in April 2025, later revised to 25 per cent.
With the court ruling, these IEEPA-based tariffs no longer apply, effectively bringing reciprocal tariffs on most Indian exports down to zero for now.
Separately, India had also faced a 25 per cent “penalty” tariff linked to its imports of Russian oil, a measure the US had said was tied to the Ukraine war.
That levy was removed earlier this month after New Delhi and Washington reached a trade understanding. As a result, both the penal tariff and the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods now stand withdrawn.
Under the trade framework discussed earlier, the reciprocal tariff was expected to be reduced to 18 per cent, but the court’s decision renders that rate moot for the time being.
Tariffs That Still Apply
Despite the relief, US tariffs on Indian goods do not disappear entirely.
Duties on steel and aluminium exports, imposed under different statutory authority, continue to apply.
For other products, tariffs revert to pre-IEEPA levels, which are generally lower under the standard US tariff schedule, though sector-specific levies remain.
The ruling does not prevent Trump, or a future administration, from imposing tariffs using other laws.
However, such actions would face stricter procedural limits and could require congressional involvement.
US officials have indicated that alternative legal routes could still be explored to retain elements of the tariff framework.
For India, the decision comes at a critical juncture. Ongoing trade talks with Washington had been overshadowed by tariff uncertainty, particularly for exporters in textiles, pharmaceuticals and engineering goods.
February 20, 2026, 21:55 IST
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Business
Trump Tariffs Live Updates: Trump Says He Has ‘Backup Plan’ After US Supreme Court Blocks Tariffs
Trump Tariffs Live Updates: In a big blow to Donald Trump, the US Supreme Court on Friday ruled against his global tariffs, saying that they are “illegal” and the President exceeded his authority in imposing a swath of tariffs that shook down the world.
Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion and the court agreed 6-3 that the tariffs exceeded the law.
“The president asserts the extraordinary power to unilaterally impose tariffs of unlimited amount, duration, and scope,” Roberts wrote for the court. “In light of the breadth, history, and constitutional context of that asserted authority, he must identify clear congressional authorization to exercise it.”
While Trump has long used tariffs as a lever for pressure and negotiations, he made unprecedented use of emergency economic powers upon returning to the presidency last year to slap new duties on virtually all US trading partners.
These included “reciprocal” tariffs over trade practices that Washington deemed unfair, alongside separate sets of duties targeting major partners Mexico, Canada and China over illicit drug flows and immigration.
The court on Friday noted that “had Congress intended to convey the distinct and extraordinary power to impose tariffs” with IEEPA, “it would have done so expressly, as it consistently has in other tariff statutes.”
The ruling does not impact sector-specific duties that Trump has separately imposed on imports of steel, aluminum and various other goods. Formal probes which could ultimately lead to more such sectoral tariffs remain in the works.
The Supreme Court’s decision affirms earlier findings by lower courts that tariffs Trump imposed under IEEPA were illegal.
A lower trade court had ruled in May that Trump overstepped his authority with across-the-board levies and blocked most of them from taking effect, but that outcome had been put on hold as the government sought an appeal.
Business
US economy slows after turbulent year
Overall the economy grew 2.2% last year, holding up despite pressures from changes to tariff and immigration policy.
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