Business
Tax season presents a boom-or-bust test for U.S. auto sales
Customers near a Ford Maverick pickup truck at a Ford dealership in Richmond, California, US, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
DETROIT – The strength of the U.S. automotive industry will face an early test this spring that has nothing to do with cars or trucks.
With tax season starting, industry experts are projecting that some Americans, many of whom have been priced out of the new vehicle market, will use anticipated higher tax returns to purchase a new or used vehicle.
Extra cash on hand could lend a needed boost to an industry that’s suffering from slowing vehicle sales — or it could reveal continued problems for the automotive industry with inflated prices and consumers still reluctant to spend on big-ticket items.
“Their new tax bill is actually going to be less, and they’re going to be getting more in their tax return. It’s going to be a little bit of a surprise, we think, for a lot of potential buyers out there,” said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough at a recent auto analyst conference.
The average IRS tax refund is up 10.9% so far this season, compared to the same point in 2025, according to early filing data. As of Feb. 6, the average refund amount was $2,290, compared with $2,065 reported about one year prior.
The increases were expected under tax changes by the Trump administration, including the One, Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July. That legislation removed taxes on overtime and tips and allowed eligible taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 in annual interest paid on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased, among other adjustments.
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Many of the tax changes were made retroactive to January 2025, which means taxpayers may have withheld more than they will ultimately owe.
“Although it’s a bit of an unknown, it feels like it could be really beneficial to vehicle sales, particularly in that sort of Q1-Q2 timeframe,” said David Oakley, GlobalData manager of Americas vehicle sales forecasts.
March is historically one of the top months for U.S. vehicle sales, especially for used vehicles. The month has represented 9.1% of annual new vehicle sales on average over the past 12 years, according to Cox, trailing only the month of December at 9.3% of sales.
Many of the recent tax changes also assist middle- and higher-income consumers who may decide to pull ahead a vehicle purchase. The industry saw a similar dynamic during the Covid pandemic when the Trump administration issued many Americans $1,400 stimulus checks.
Back then, though, federal interest rates were near zero compared to the current Federal Reserve funds rate of 3.5%–3.75% and inventory of new vehicles was low. Now, with higher borrowing costs, but improved inventory, the equation could be different.
More buyers are agreeing to longer-term loans amid higher financing costs and prices. Putting down extra cash ahead of time can help lower monthly payments, which Carmax’s Edmunds reports reached a record of $772 per month for new vehicles during the fourth quarter.
The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. was hovering around $50,000 toward the end of last year, up 30% from the start of 2020, according to Cox.
“What we don’t know is with consumer finance so stressed already, is that extra money already spent? Whether that’s going to be in the pockets. It’s a really mixed bag out there,” Chesbrough said.
Consumers could choose to use higher tax returns to pay off credit card debt — which nationally stands at a record level of $1.28 trillion, according to a report last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — or replenish their savings after a period of persistent inflation.
U.S. consumer confidence fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest level since May 2014, driven by intense anxiety over high prices and a weakening labor market.
“It’s only confident people, people who feel comfortable about their economic fortunes of the economy of the United States, that are going to be interested in taking out a $40,000 or $50,000 auto loan,” Chesbrough said. “It’s a very difficult situation right now.”
– CNBC’s Kate Dore contributed to this report.
Business
Trump administration finalizes better-than-feared Medicare Advantage payment rate in boost to health insurers
Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Mehmet Oz speaks during an event sponsored by the Action for Progress Coalition, at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 2, 2026.
Al Drago | Reuters
The Trump administration on Monday finalized a 2027 payment rate increase to privately run Medicare plans that was far bigger than initially proposed, a boost to health insurer stocks.
The government will increase average Medicare Advantage payments by 2.48%, or more than $13 billion, in 2027, according to a release from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. The Trump administration in January proposed a payment rate hike of 0.09%, which pummeled shares of insurers that run those plans.
Shares of UnitedHealth and CVS Health rose more than 9% in after-hours trading on Monday. Meanwhile, Humana‘s stock jumped around 12%.
“Medicare Advantage and Part D should work for the people who rely on them,” said CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz in a release. “These updates keep coverage affordable and ensure patients get real value from their plans.”
The closely watched government payment rate determines how much insurers can charge for monthly premiums and plan benefits they offer and, ultimately, their profits.
Medicare Advantage is a privately run health insurance plan contracted by Medicare. More than half of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in such plans, enticed by lower monthly premiums and extra benefits not covered by traditional Medicare, according to health policy research firm KFF.
Business
New norms for NH & bridge works: Longer timelines, realistic deadlines – The Times of India
New Delhi: In a major change in policy, govt has increased the time allowed for construction of 6-10 km-long bridges across rivers such as Ganga and Brahmaputra to six years and for 2.5-6 km-long bridges on Mahanadi and Godavari to five years. The timelines have been revised from the current 24-30 months.Similarly, the construction period has been fixed at two years for national highway projects costing up to Rs 500 crore, 30 months for Rs 500-1,500 crore projects, and three years for works costing over Rs 1,500 crore.The change in the ‘normative construction period’ has been made after a gap of 13 years, learning from past experience of how the average time taken for completion of NH projects has been over four years against the standard timeline of 2.5-3 years. The revised timeline for construction will be applicable for all NH projects to be bid out from May 6.In a circular, the road transport ministry said present guidelines — issued in 2013 — are derived from a legacy linear model that does not explicitly account for voluminous earthwork, leading to unrealistic construction period and resulting in additional cost and risk.“Therefore, a need was felt to revise the existing guidelines based on scientific analysis, understanding of completed projects, and prescribe a realistic construction period for civil works at DPR and bid invitation stage,” the ministry said. It added that the new norm will improve predictability in completion of projects, reduce disputes, enhance value and quality of NHs, for realistic and bankable bids, better quality outcomes and improved investor confidence.An additional six months time has been provisioned in the new norms for critical projects which involve multiple flyovers, tunnels or elevated structures. Similarly, an addition of 12 months has been provisioned for projects that involve cutting and slope stabilisation in hilly states.
Business
GCC demand surges: Foreign firms lease record 9.1 mn sq ft office space in Jan-Mar; India cements global hub status – The Times of India
Foreign firms leased a record 9.1 million square feet of office space across India’s top nine cities during the January-March quarter to set up Global Capability Centres (GCCs), highlighting strong demand for workspaces, PTI reported citing CBRE data.Real estate consultant CBRE said total gross leasing of office space rose 5% to 20.7 million square feet in the quarter, compared with 19.7 million square feet in the year-ago period.The nine cities covered in the report include Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune, Kolkata, Ahmedabad and Kochi.Leasing for GCCs stood at a record 9.1 million square feet in the March quarter, the highest ever for any quarter.“The record GCC leasing activity is a definitive signal of India’s position as the global destination of choice for high-complexity capability functions,” said Anshuman Magazine, Chairman & CEO, India, South-East Asia, Middle East & Africa, CBRE.He added that demand is broad-based across sectors such as e-commerce, technology and BFSI.“The demand is increasingly being driven by mid-market and nano GCCs alongside established Fortune 500 occupiers,” Magazine said.According to CBRE, American firms accounted for 73% of the total GCC leasing during the quarter.Ram Chandnani, Managing Director, Leasing Services, India, CBRE, said occupiers are increasingly preferring green-certified and amenity-rich office spaces.“As occupiers adopt AI-ready workspace strategies and GCCs evolve into multi-functional innovation hubs, we expect leasing momentum to remain healthy through 2026,” he said.Bengaluru led office leasing activity with a 29% share, followed by Delhi-NCR at 22% and Mumbai at 16%.Together, these three cities accounted for around 67% of the total office leasing across the nine cities during the January-March period, the consultant said.
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