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IMF GCDA report ‘compromised’ | The Express Tribune

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IMF GCDA report ‘compromised’ | The Express Tribune



ISLAMABAD:

In scorching criticism of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s highly trumpeted Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment (GCDA), an independent think tank has described the report as “analytically strong” but said it compromised on politically sensitive reforms and institutional independence.

The think tank’s report revealed that the IMF compromised on the independence of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), the Auditor General of Pakistan and oversight of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC).

The Global Think Tank Network (GTTN) also said that 73% of fiscal consolidation under the IMF programme was the result of placing more tax burden, mostly on the “already-taxed formal firms, salaried individuals, and the less-affluent via petroleum levies and indirect taxation”.

The think tank released its report at the beginning of the IMF mission to Pakistan, which will review implementation of the action plan agreed to address corruption and governance-related vulnerabilities identified in its November 2025 report. However, the GTTN report also highlights compromises that the IMF struck with Pakistan.

The GCDA “is analytically strong and unusually candid”. Yet its omissions are consequential, said the GTTN.

The GCDA’s “enforcement mechanisms are weak, politically sensitive reforms are diluted or deferred, subnational governance is under-examined, and institutional independence is insufficiently secured,” according to the report.

The think tank said that while the IMF achieved fiscal stabilisation, structural reforms were postponed and “stability without reform does not resolve risk; it defers it”.

The GTTN said consistent fiscal consolidation since 2022 had delivered a cumulative primary adjustment of 5.6% of GDP, the largest in Pakistan’s history.

But “73% of this adjustment has come from revenue measures. The burden has fallen disproportionately on already-taxed formal firms, salaried individuals, and the less-affluent via petroleum levies and indirect taxation. One effect of this is to push firms into informality”.

The GTTN added that while already burdened people were overburdened, government expenses kept rising during the past three years. “Overall expenditure by federal and provincial governments has risen by 60% since 2023. Non-interest expenditure has increased by 70%, and personnel-related spending has ballooned from Rs3.7 trillion to Rs5.9 trillion – a 59% increase”, according to the report.

The think tank said the GCDA recognises corruption risks but does not integrate these macro-social consequences into reform design. “Fiscal pain is immediate, yet governance reform is deferred,” it added.

Proposed changes to NAB are confined to a future “review” of its appointment process, without mandating an independent selection committee, fixed non-renewable tenure or structural safeguards to insulate leadership from political influence.

“Although concerns about politicisation are acknowledged, they are not matched by binding institutional redesign,” said the GTTN said.

The GCDA flags the need for a more transparent procedure for key appointments, including the NAB chairman, yet fails to call for widening the pool of candidates beyond the civil service, judiciary and military, which are widely seen as responsible for Pakistan’s current state, according to GTTN.

“The widening of this pool is essential to give a chance to top professionals, academics and other suitably qualified candidates who can bring a fresh and more objective perspective to the fight against corruption”, it added.

Similarly, while weaknesses in audit follow-up are recognised, no enforceable mechanisms are introduced to ensure Auditor General findings result in corrective action. The absence of binding timelines, parliamentary reporting requirements or sanctions for non-compliance leaves a longstanding accountability gap largely intact, said the GTTN.

On the SIFC, the principal recommendation is publication of an annual report, which the government has proposed to issue starting March 2027.

“The GCDA fails to address broader governance concerns such as parliamentary oversight, transparency of concessions, cost-benefit evaluation of projects, or the scope of immunity provisions. Given the Council’s expanding role in economic decision-making, the limited reform requirement is striking”.

The GTTN said provinces account for about 60% of consolidated public expenditure, reflecting fiscal decentralisation, yet the GCDA remains overwhelmingly federal in scope with limited assessment of provincial governance vulnerabilities.

The GCDA provides serious treatment of fiscal governance weaknesses but, the GTTN said, “the most striking empirical evidence drawn from FY15-FY24 budget data points to serious budgetary deviations and malpractices that the GCDA omits”.

Ten out of 40 federal ministries have consistently posted significant ‘overspending’ deviations, with average cumulative overspending during FY15–FY24 amounting to Rs210 billion. Five ministries – Energy, Defence, Interior, Cabinet and National Health – accounted for 91% of cumulative overspending.

The report added that the GCDA does not embed anti-money laundering and combating financing of terrorism reforms within a broader accountability ecosystem tied to elite financial disclosure or asset verification.

In Pakistan, where 80% of the population does not use banks, the stringent and mechanical imposition of AML/CFT requirements exacerbates de-banking and can push small and micro businesses into informality, it added.

The report further stated that ensuring an independent judiciary, empowering oversight institutions, creating a truly autonomous parliament, supporting a free press and encouraging a robust civil society are essential. However, the GCDA does not address these foundational horizontal reforms that are critical to tackling corruption.

“Instead, it opts for quick fixes – such as proposing asset declarations by senior state officials, which are considered basic anti-corruption measures,” according to GTTN.

Declarations are limited in coverage and oversight, and no autonomous authority is mandated to conduct regular audits or investigate discrepancies. In practice, politicians and members of the judiciary remain outside a robust and enforceable disclosure framework. While transparency is formally encouraged, deterrence is not institutionally embedded.

However, the GCDA reform agenda remains largely technocratic. It approaches the judiciary as an institution facing administrative constraints rather than as a constitutional body whose independence underpins credible enforcement, said the GTTN.

Issues such as appointment procedures, tenure security and potential executive influence receive limited substantive treatment. The question of ensuring judicial accountability for performance remains largely unexamined, especially given uncertainty over whether audits of judicial finances are conducted, it added.



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Labour parliamentarians urge UK Government to oppose Rosebank oil field

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Labour parliamentarians urge UK Government to oppose Rosebank oil field



Labour MPs are among a group of more than 60 parliamentarians to have made public their opposition to the planned Rosebank oil field – with one of Sir Keir Starmer’s backbenchers urging the Government to rule against the development and take a stand “against Trump, Reform and their fossil fuel paymasters”.

Clive Lewis is one of more than 50 MPs at Westminster who have signed a pledge from campaign group Uplift to “oppose the Rosebank oil field” and instead “advocate for a properly funded just transition for oil and gas workers and communities”.

Urging the Government to reject the development, Norwich South MP Mr Lewis said: “We must stand our ground against Trump, Reform and their fossil fuel paymasters.

“Approving an enormous new oil field would mean caving in to their anti-climate, anti-renewables agenda that runs completely counter to our values and our long-term interests.”

Scottish Labour MP Chris Murray, another of the Labour MPs to have signed the pledge, said the decision on Rosebank was “an opportunity for the Government to change course”.

It comes as the UK Government continues to consider whether the development of the oil field can go ahead – with Labour now under mounting pressure after the loss of the Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens on Thursday.

Rosebank, which lies about 80 miles west of Shetland, is the UK’s largest untapped field, containing up to an estimated 300 million barrels of oil.

Drilling there was approved by the Conservative government in 2023 but was then subject to a legal challenge in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling which said the emissions created from burning fossil fuels should be considered when granting permission for new sites.

Now the decision on whether it can proceed lies with Labour ministers – with some 16 Labour MPs having made plain their opposition to the development.

The group includes Mr Lewis, Mr Murray, former Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell and Scottish Labour’s Brian Leishman.

Former Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott have also signed the pledge, along with a number of Liberal Democrat and Green MPs, SNP MP Chris Law, Plaid Cymru’s Liz Saville Roberts and Paul Maskey of Sinn Fein.

In Scotland a number of Labour MSPs have signed the pledge, along with Green MSPs – including the party’s Scottish co-leader Ross Greer – and former SNP health secretary Michael Matheson.

While previous Scottish first ministers Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf made plain their opposition to Rosebank, First Minister John Swinney has insisted the Scottish Government takes a “case-by-case approach” to new oil and gas developments, stressing these should only proceed if found to be compatible with climate change targets.

Mr Lewis said opposing Rosebank would “show that a Labour Government will stand by the promises we made to the country”.

He added: “There are only so many times we can afford to make mistakes and then change course.

“With Rosebank, we have an opportunity to get it right the first time.”

Mr Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, said many locals in his constituency were “deeply concerned about Rosebank and rightly so”.

He added: “Climate change is one of the reasons I came into politics, and opening new oil and gas fields is simply incompatible with our climate commitments.

“With the North Sea’s oil supply dwindling, Scotland’s energy sector must transition to clean energy, or workers risk being left behind.”

Scottish Labour MSP Mercedes Villalba, who has also signed the pledge, argued that “approving projects like Rosebank will lock us into a toxic dependence on volatile, conflict-ridden fossil fuels”.

This would create “another excuse to delay the urgent investment needed to create secure, well-paid jobs for Scotland’s workers”, she added.

Ms Villalba said: “In an increasingly uncertain world, where climate action is relegated in favour of fossil politics, the UK and Scotland must lead the way on the clean energy transition.”

Wera Hobhouse, Liberal Democrat MP for Bath, said people in her constituency and across the country “are already facing the consequences of an increasingly unstable climate”.

Highlighting the impact of flooding and “skyrocketing food prices”, she said that “climate impacts are now a daily reality”.

Ms Hobhouse said: “Extreme weather is damaging crops, putting pressure on farmers, and destroying our precious natural environment.

“We cannot ignore these warning signs.

“A massive new oil field like Rosebank would only make matters worse.

“The emissions would be enormous, locking us into decades more pollution when we should be cutting carbon and unlocking the benefits of cheap, renewable energy.”

Approving the Rosebank development would “make a mockery of Labour’s environmental promises”, she said.

A UK Government spokesperson said: “Our priority is to deliver a fair, orderly and prosperous transition in the North Sea in line with our climate and legal obligations, which drives our clean energy future of energy security, lower bills, and good long-term jobs.”



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UAE stock markets close, trading halted by Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market for two days amid Iran–US–Israel war fallout – The Times of India

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UAE stock markets close, trading halted by Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market for two days amid Iran–US–Israel war fallout – The Times of India


UAE Stock Markets Closed: Regional Conflict Halts Trading on ADX and DFM

In an unprecedented economic response to escalating regional conflict, the United Arab Emirates has announced that its two major financial markets, the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), will remain closed on Monday, March 2 and Tuesday, March 3, 2026. The decision comes as the UAE reels from a series of retaliatory Iranian strikes following coordinated US and Israeli military actions against Iran, which have destabilised Gulf business sentiment and prompted sweeping security and economic precautions.The UAE Capital Markets Authority said that keeping the exchanges closed temporarily is part of its supervisory and regulatory mandate, providing authorities and market participants time to assess the impact of recent events on financial infrastructure and investor confidence. The halt affects equities, derivatives and trading in hundreds of billions of dollars in listed assets and is among the clearest signs yet of economic shockwaves from the regional crisis.

Why UAE stock markets are paused: Regional conflict among Iran–US–Israel disrupts confidence

The closures follow Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Gulf cities and strategic targets, including airports and other infrastructure, after a joint US–Israel offensive. These attacks have not only led to safety measures such as airspace restrictions and travel advisories but also triggered widespread business disruption across the Gulf. Major airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have seen operations halted or altered and commercial hubs from ports to retail centres have felt the strain.

UAE Markets Shut Down: Is This Economic Capitulation to Regional War?

UAE Markets Shut Down: Is This Economic Capitulation to Regional War?

Financial markets are typically among the first economic indicators affected by geopolitical instability. When investors fear prolonged unrest, they often pull funds from equities and seek so-called “safe-haven” assets like gold, sovereign debt or commodities such as oil, especially when conflict threatens critical energy supply corridors like the Strait of Hormuz.

Regional market turmoil and knock-on effects in the Middle East amid Iran–US–Israel clashes

While the UAE exchanges are closed, other Gulf markets that remained open on Sunday experienced significant sell-offs as investors reacted to the turmoil:

  • Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index saw sharp drops before partially recovering as investors weighed conflict risks against energy price gains.
  • Muscat and other regional bourses also slid, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment.
  • In Kuwait, authorities took the rare step of suspending trading indefinitely due to “exceptional circumstances” linked to the same regional tensions.

Financial markets are serving as a barometer of risk and economic confidence and the dramatic moves across the Gulf underscore how intertwined political stability is with economic performance in the region.

What the UAE’s stock market closure means for investors

For both domestic and international investors, the temporary shutdown of ADX and DFM has several implications. Liquidity and price discovery are paused, leaving billions of dollars in listed assets in limbo. Risk premiums on Gulf assets may rise, as traders reassess exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty. Investor sentiment is likely to remain fragile until there are visible signs of de-escalation or credible diplomatic resolutions.Economists note that halting trading does not eliminate market pressure, it simply delays it and when markets do reopen, there may be sharp moves as investors recalibrate positions based on new geopolitical and economic realities. The conflict has not just shaken stock markets, energy markets have also reacted. Reports from analysts indicate that crude oil prices have surged as fears of supply disruptions increase, with the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for roughly 20% of global oil exports, under theoretical threat of closure.

UAE Stock Markets Closed: What Does This Mean for Global Investors Amidst Escalating Conflict?

UAE Stock Markets Closed: What Does This Mean for Global Investors Amidst Escalating Conflict?

Higher oil prices can partially offset stock market pain in energy-exporting economies like the UAE but the overall economic impact remains complex. Other sectors, from tourism and hospitality to trade and logistics, have also felt immediate fallout: airport shutdowns have stranded travellers and corporate events and networking key to Ramadan business cycles have been postponed, compounding uncertainty.

UAE government messaging and future prospects

UAE authorities have stressed that public and economic safety remain top priorities. The temporary market closure is coupled with broad advisories across transportation, education and public services, such as airports issuing travel advisories and schools moving to remote learning, aimed at ensuring operational stability while the situation evolves. Officials have pledged to monitor conditions closely and communicate updates on any further market action. This includes potential rescheduling of reopening dates for ADX and DFM or additional measures to support investors once trading resumes.The UAE Capital Markets Authority ordered a two-day closure of the Abu Dhabi and Dubai stock markets on March 2–3, 2026, in response to escalating regional tensions. The pause follows retaliatory strikes by Iran after US and Israeli military action, which have disrupted markets, air travel and business operations across the Gulf. Gulf markets that remained open experienced sharp declines and volatility, reflecting investor risk aversion. Oil prices and safe-haven assets have climbed as geopolitical risk fuels global economic uncertainty. Authorities will continue to assess and communicate market developments as conditions evolve.



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Flights cancelled as new travel warnings issued after US-Israeli strikes on Iran

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Flights cancelled as new travel warnings issued after US-Israeli strikes on Iran



BA and Virgin Atlantic are among major airlines to ground services to the Middle East in light of the attacks.



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