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Family offices piled into oil after capital dried up. The recent rally has made for big gains

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Family offices piled into oil after capital dried up. The recent rally has made for big gains


Dwayne Schnell | 500px Plus | Getty Images

A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.

The Iran war has propelled oil prices to above $94 a barrel, up about 30% since the conflict began in late February. That rally has been a boon for investment firms of ultra-wealthy families who made opportunistic bets on oil in recent years. 

Since the pandemic, private equity funds and other institutional investors have backed away from oil and gas in part due to pressure from environmentally conscious stakeholders. Family offices have stepped in to fill some of that void, investors and advisors told CNBC.

While many family offices are environmentally minded — with a September survey by Citi Private Bank showing more than half of respondents reporting they were likely to make sustainable investments in the next five years — they’re not subject to the same ESG mandates as private equity firms or endowments, which have faced pressure to divest from oil and gas.

“Family offices are contrarian players. A lot of investors left the sector for non-fundamental reasons, like endowment funds, who had students protesting,” said Keith Behrens, head of energy and clean energy investment banking at Stephens. “Family offices saw that flight of capital, and it created really good investment opportunities for them. They were able to come in and invest with pretty reasonable cash flow multiples.”

Family offices also have an edge on private equity players as they generally hold investments for longer periods, meaning they can weather oil price fluctuations and dealmaking downturns, according to Gillon Capital’s Jeff Peterson.

“We back teams who are looking to build businesses over the long term, because that’s where we really differentiate ourselves. A fund can only really hold a business for their fund life,” he said. “We invest for generations in mind so we can look through current cycles.”

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Peterson has managed investments for the descendants of oil tycoon H.L. Hunt for 14 years. About five years ago, A.G. Hill Partners, one of the family’s personal investment firms, doubled down on oil and gas to take advantage of attractive valuations. 

Multiples for the sector typically range between two to three times cash flow, according to Peterson, who is now chief investment officer for Gillon Capital, a family office spun out of A.G. Hill Partners a year ago.

Peterson said the family has taken the lead on major deals in the sector, such as forming a consortium of family offices and a few PE funds for the $2 billion acquisition of natural gas producer PureWest Energy. The family is also an anchor investor in a minerals and royalty fund that has raised about $500 million in capital and has a substantial position in the Permian Basin, which is the highest-producing oil field in the U.S., he said.

The sector is increasingly drawing interest from family offices without ties to energy, according to Tailwater Capital’s Doug Prieto. He leads upstream energy funds, which back oil and gas exploration and production, for the middle-market PE firm. Prieto said the funds have raised about $500 million from family offices without backgrounds in energy and just last week took a commitment from a family office built from an options-trading fortune. 

Family offices without energy expertise are typically seeking to diversify their portfolio with assets that are uncorrelated to stocks and bonds, Prieto said. Oil and gas are also attractive as inflation hedges, he added.

The Trump administration’s efforts to prioritize oil, gas and nuclear power over clean energy have given investors more confidence in the sector, according to Ellen Conley, lawyer and co-chair of Haynes Boone’s energy finance practice group.

Plus, the potential for cash dividends appeals to family offices, she said.

“Family offices are viewing these assets as cash-flowing real assets rather than a speculative commodity gamble,” she said. “We’re dealing with real assets, particularly in Texas, where you have this repeatable cash flow and predictive models.”

Conley said investors’ interest in energy was already on the rise before the recent oil surge. But headlines about oil prices tied to the Iran war have spurred queries from family offices looking to invest, according to Vicki Odette, global chair of Haynes Boone’s investment management practice group.

However, investors who are new to the space can only realistically take advantage of the current price surge by hedging, Peterson said. 

“For anybody to start a drilling program today, you’re really not looking at production this calendar year. You’re looking at next year,” said Peterson. 

Analysts generally expect the current spike to be temporary.

And while high prices are good for existing investors, they make it harder to get deals done, according to Behrens.

“If someone’s selling a property, they’re going to want to sell it at the highest price possible and get the latest day close,” he said. “The buyer is going to say, ‘Hey, that’s great that oil is at $115 a barrel, but three months ago it was at $60.'”

Prieto added that it is possible to have too much of a good thing. High oil prices for a prolonged period of time poses a recession risk, he said. 

“We like to see a robust U.S. economy. I think for us, somewhere between $75 and $85 a barrel feels pretty darn good,” he said. “When you get over $100, you start to have adverse impacts that don’t benefit anyone.”

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Pakistan considering buying LNG on spot market to offset supply disruptions caused by Iran war: petroleum minister – SUCH TV

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Pakistan considering buying LNG on spot market to offset supply disruptions caused by Iran war: petroleum minister – SUCH TV



Pakistan is considering buying liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the spot market to offset supply disruptions caused by the Iran war, but would favour government-to-government deals to avoid having to pay steep premiums, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik has told Reuters.

Qatar’s force majeure forced Pakistan to make costly spot purchases or find alternative fuels ahead of summer demand.

Spot LNG cargoes have surged to $20 to $30 per mmBtu amid the Middle East conflict, Malik says, adding that purchases would depend on whether prices are acceptable to the power sector, including under existing government-to-government arrangements with Azerbaijan’s Socar.

Pakistan has also been routing some crude supplies via Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with Malik saying insurance costs on that route were lower than routes crossing or near Hormuz.

Pakistan imports nearly all of its oil, much of it via the Strait of Hormuz, and remains exposed to supply shocks despite cutting its LNG reliance in recent years, as gas is still needed to meet the country’s peak summer power demand.

It has begun commercial output from its highest-ever producing oil and gas well, as it shores up domestic supply.

“We have arrangements in place to meet domestic and industrial requirements,” Malik said, adding that gas disruptions have not led to major curbs, with eight of 10 fertiliser plants operating.

Officials are also considering the use of costlier fuels such as furnace oil to limit load shedding, although at the expense of higher tariffs. Malik warned that prolonged shortages could threaten food security.

The Baragzai X-01 well in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is producing about 15,000 barrels of oil per day and 45 million cubic feet of gas, with output expected to rise further, the state-run operator Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) said.

The well could reach up to 25,000 barrels per day and 60 million cubic feet per day of gas, making it Pakistan’s highest-producing well, and may contribute around 10 per cent of crude output while cutting the country’s import bill by about $329 million annually, OGDC said.



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For cruise lines, Iran conflict and oil prices threaten to dent profits

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For cruise lines, Iran conflict and oil prices threaten to dent profits


The Carnival Miracle cruise ship is anchored in the Pacific Ocean near Kailua Bay during a 15-day cruise, in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii, on Jan. 14, 2024.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

The global cruise industry is reporting record demand and renewed consumer enthusiasm, but the leaders helming the world’s largest cruise companies say the sector is also facing some of the most complex challenges it has seen in decades.

“We are not an alternative vacation anymore. We are a vacation,” Carnival Corporation CEO Josh Weinstein said during a keynote panel Tuesday at Seatrade Global, a cruise industry conference.

As demand rises, passengers are getting younger; one-third of cruise travelers are now under 40, according to the 2026 State of the Cruise Industry report released by Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA). One-third of trips are multi-generational, often families traveling together. And nearly a third of cruisers take vacations by ship multiple times a year, according to the report.

The cruise industry hosted 37 million passengers worldwide last year and anticipates reaching 42 million annually by 2029, CLIA found.

“That mainstream demand sets us up very well for volatility,” Weinstein said.

A resilient business in an uncertain world

At least six cruise ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf by the impasse at the Strait of Hormuz. One of them is the MSC Euribia.

Though roughly 1,500 passengers were safely evacuated amid Dubai airport shutdowns and missile warnings after the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran in late February, there are still some crew on board to maintain the vessel.

“Obviously, we live day by day. The situation is very fluid,” said MSC Cruises Executive Chairman Pierfrancesco Vago during the Seatrade Global keynote.

Already the shutdown of marine traffic in the Strait has disrupted itineraries in the Middle East and southern Europe. Threats of blockades, mines on the sea floor and on-and-off-again negotiations are keeping cruise executives guessing about when they can move their ships.

“Morning is one thing, lunchtime is another, dinner is another again,” Vago said of the numerous and often conflicting announcements from government leaders. “We need to stay cool and actually be ready to move out as soon as the possibility and opportunity comes back.”

Despite these challenges, cruise executives argue the industry has never been better positioned to absorb shocks.

“Every crisis we’ve faced — financial, geopolitical or health-related — we adapted,” Carnival’s Weinstein said. “There’s no reason to believe it will be different this time.”

Fuel costs, sustainability and the push to use less

Fuel price volatility has once again put energy strategy front and center for the cruise industry, particularly for Carnival, which does not hedge fuel prices.

“Nobody asks us about hedging when prices are low,” Weinstein said. “But our strategy has been consistent: use less fuel.” 

The cruise industry aims to have net zero emissions by 2050, but CEOs agree that they can’t achieve that goal solely by conserving fuel.

Industry leaders see biofuels, green methanol and synthetic liquid natural gas (produced by combining captured carbon with hydrogen) as the most promising solutions to meet their fuel needs.

Royal Caribbean Group CEO Jason Liberty said cruise lines are already investing hundreds of millions of dollars annually in technology and energy innovation, but availability of alternative fuels remains the bottleneck.

“It’s not about what we want to use,” Liberty said. “It’s about what’s scalable and available.” 

“We’re going to have heavy competition with other sectors for those fuels as well. There’s no guarantee we get them,” added Bud Darr, president and CEO of Cruise Lines International Association.

Tailwinds for growth

Even as the industry navigates choppy seas, cruise companies are looking for their next avenues for growth.

Technological advances in artificial intelligence are being used to reduce food waste, plot routes and itineraries and increase efficiency. Cruise line executives say the most important application is to reduce friction in the guest experience.

“A more flexible work environment has been a big demand driver for us,” Liberty said. Most Royal Caribbean ships now host a Starlink connection for fast internet aboard.

Private destinations, the exclusive ports or islands owned or controlled by a cruise line, continue to be a priority for investment. Royal Caribbean, for instance, currently has three private destinations on its itineraries but will have eight by 2028.

It’s developing a major land-based hub in Puerto Williams, Chile, to reduce or eliminate the amount of time passengers to Antarctica have to spend transiting the punishing seas of the Drake Passage.

And the luxury segment, though a small percentage of the overall industry, is growing rapidly. Customers are increasingly interested in exploring health, wellness and longevity — and those trends are showing up in their vacation habits, too.

Smaller ships and river cruising accommodate specialized interests in eco-tourism, off-the-beaten path (not yet discovered by social media influencers) locales and culinary or artistic aficionados.

Social-media driven demand in tourism has also sparked backlash from some destinations, overwhelmed by the crowds. The cruise industry is working with destinations on what it calls managed, predictable tourism.

Vago said MSC worked with Dubrovnik, Croatia, for example, to coordinate the flow of visitors to the medieval town, which wants the tourism spending but without destruction of quality of life for residents.

“Many of these coastal communities actually appreciate that. We plan in advance. We create itineraries three years in advance,” Vago said.

“The strength of this industry is its ability to evolve without losing its soul,” Liberty said. “That soul is hospitality.”

Leadership change and fresh perspective

At Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, the challenge for new CEO John Chidsey is righting the ship.

In his first earnings call, just days after taking the helm, Chidsey acknowledged the company had committed numerous missteps.

Margins are under pressure. Shares have been volatile. Critics have questioned a push to expand cruise itineraries in the Caribbean before Norwegian’s private island was fully completed.

Earlier this year, Elliott Investment Management took an activist stake in Norwegian, which may have provided impetus for the board to make a leadership change.

Chidsey told CNBC Elliott’s goals align with his own and that he intends to create a culture of accountability and urgency where teams are working together rather than separated into silos.

New Norwegian Cruise Line CEO John Chidsey on taking the helm

The Seatrade conference was a cruise industry debut for Chidsey, formerly the CEO of Subway, Burger King and Avis.

When asked what a “sandwich guy knows about cruising,” Chidsey didn’t miss a beat, insisting he’s a “turnaround guy not a sandwich guy.”

“I knew nothing about fast food when I went there. I think having a fresh set of eyes is really what Norwegian needs. And it’s all about execution,” he said.

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India rejects US Section 301 allegations, seeks termination; calls for resolution via talks – The Times of India

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India rejects US Section 301 allegations, seeks termination; calls for resolution via talks – The Times of India


India has strongly pushed back against the United States’ Section 301 investigations, rejecting allegations of unfair trade practices and seeking immediate termination of the probes.In its submission to the US Trade Representative (USTR), India “firmly denies all allegations made in the initiation notice” related to claims of excess structural capacity and production in manufacturing sectors, PTI reported. “The initiation Notice is premised on aggregate macroeconomic indicators, without identifying any specific act, policy or practice of the Government of India that could be considered ‘unreasonable or discriminatory’ and that ‘burdens or restricts United States commerce’ as required by Section 301(b) of the Act,” the submission said. India said the notice provides no “cogent rationale” or prima facie evidence to support allegations that the country has structural excess capacity leading to a trade surplus with the US. “India submits that the present investigation does not satisfy the requirements for the initiation of this investigation pursuant to Sections 301 and 302 of the Trade Act of 1974. India calls upon the USTR to make a negative determination and terminate the investigation forthwith,” it said. The government also urged that trade concerns be addressed through ongoing bilateral negotiations rather than unilateral measures, noting that both countries are engaged in discussions for a Bilateral Trade Agreement. “India remains willing to constructively engage with the United States in the underlying investigation, including any consultation,” it added. Separately, responding to another Section 301 probe launched on March 12 on alleged failure to act against forced labour, India said the investigation does not meet legal requirements for initiation. “India requests the USTR to make a negative determination and terminate the investigation against India. Additionally, India remains willing to constructively engage with the United States in the underlying investigation, including any consultation,” the submission said. The responses have been filed by the commerce and industry ministry on behalf of the government. On March 11, the USTR initiated investigations into policies and industrial practices of 16 economies, including India, China, Japan and the European Union, to examine “unfair foreign practices” affecting American manufacturing. A day later, on March 12, the USTR launched a broader probe covering 60 economies, including India and China, to assess whether their practices related to forced labour imports are unreasonable or discriminatory and restrict US commerce. India said its submissions represent the public, non-confidential summary of its response, while the full version has been filed separately as confidential.



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