Sports
Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 3
It’s three weeks into the season and Notre Dame has dropped out of the playoff conversation with an 0-2 start following its home loss to Texas A&M on Saturday.
In what was a wild, entertaining evening of college football. Georgia’s overtime win at Tennessee was overshadowed by what unfolded later in South Bend because the Aggies’ win had the bigger, more immediate impact on the playoff race.
And it’s gonna last all season for the Irish, who no longer have any margin for error and have lost all control on their path to the playoff.
“The future’s uncertain,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “I don’t know what’s the playoff number, and it doesn’t matter. We need to focus on getting better.”
So what does it mean for Texas A&M?
This list is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Like the selection committee, it is a ranking based on what each team has done to-date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Texas remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country, but the Longhorns continue to have questions on offense against far less elite defenses. The Buckeyes entered this week No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and are ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — traits of past top-four playoff teams.
Why they could be lower: The committee does track when teams play FCS teams, and the 70-0 drubbing of Grambling doesn’t help Ohio State’s résumé. Saturday’s win against Ohio also doesn’t do much for the Buckeyes during a week in which Miami, Georgia and LSU all played tougher teams.
Need to know: Even if Texas doesn’t live up to the preseason hype and ranking, the selection committee will continue to respect Ohio State’s win against the Longhorns all season — as long as Texas doesn’t come unraveled. It will be a moot point if Ohio State locks up a CFP spot by winning the Big Ten, but it would enter the conversation and help the Buckeyes when it comes to how high they can be seeded for an at-large bid. The top four teams now get the top four seeds — regardless of if they are a conference champion.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes added to their résumé with a win against South Florida, which should still be the Group of 5’s top contender for a playoff spot. Coupled with the season-opening win against Notre Dame, Miami has one of the best combinations of eye test and résumé in the country.
Why they could be lower: The committee could be more impressed with the SEC wins, period. Georgia’s overtime road win against Tennessee could trump Miami’s home win against the Irish, and LSU’s two Power 4 wins against Clemson and now Florida could also usurp the Canes in a debate.
Need to know: Saturday’s win against the Bulls was a critical head-to-head tiebreaker that would be used in the committee meeting room if both teams finish with similar records. Even if they lock up spots as their respective conference champions, Miami would keep the edge — and the higher seed — on Selection Day, which could mean the difference in hosting a first-round home game.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 54.3% chance to beat their rival.
Why they could be here: The win against Tennessee in the SEC opener was the Bulldogs’ first statement victory, and it now lifts them above other contenders who have played well but against weaker teams. Ohio State’s defense, though, continues to keep the Buckeyes at the top, and Miami’s two wins against ranked teams — Notre Dame and South Florida — gives them an edge in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which is similar to what the committee uses.
Why they could be higher: The committee considers the difficulty of playing overtime games on the road, and the former coaches and players in the room would also recognize the growth of quarterback Gunner Stockton in that unforgiving environment. Stockton completed 23 of 31 attempts for 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for a score.
Need to know: It’s possible this instant classic could get a replay — either in the SEC championship game, the playoff — or both. The selection committee doesn’t try to avoid rematches when it’s ranking the teams, so it’s possible for Georgia and Tennessee to play as many as three times.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have bye week to prepare for it, but the Tide has shown continuous improvement since its season-opening loss to Florida State.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ season-opening win at Clemson took another hit after the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, and the true value of beating a beleaguered Florida team at home is yet to be determined. Still, those combined wins outweigh what most of the contenders below them have accomplished. LSU’s defense has been a highlight, as the Tigers were No. 11 in the country in defensive efficiency heading into Week 3. They shut the Gators out in the second half and quarterback DJ Lagway threw five interceptions.
Why they could be lower: The Tigers still haven’t flashed that wow factor, continuing to do just enough to win while overcoming mistakes. LSU only had 10 first downs (compared to 22 by Florida), was held under 100 yards rushing, and was 4-of-14 on third downs. LSU ranks behind several other contenders listed below in ESPN’s game control metric.
Need to know: LSU should be undefeated heading into its Sept. 27 game at Ole Miss, which will be one of three critical road trip that will define the Tigers’ season. LSU also travels to Alabama and Oklahoma. The win against the Gators gives them a much-needed cushion, but they can’t go 0-3 on the road against those teams — and that doesn’t count the Oct. 18 trip to Vandy, which just beat South Carolina.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The road win at Notre Dame was the first statement playoff win under coach Mike Elko, and it gives the Aggies one of the best nonconference wins of the season. It’s arguably better than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M did it on the road. It certainly wasn’t a flawless performance, but it was enough to boost the Aggies into the conversation.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to tell how good a win against Notre Dame is this year, considering they’re 0-2. Texas A&M’s other two wins were against UTSA and Utah State, which won’t help their résumé.
Need to know: The selection committee compares results against common opponents. While it’s not an overriding factor, the group would at least consider how Miami and Texas A&M both looked in their wins against the Irish if they were comparing the Aggies and Canes side-by-side during the ranking process.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road.
Why they could be here: With wins against Montana State, Oklahoma State and Northwestern, the Ducks have yet to be tested against ranked competition, but they haven’t had any scares along the way. They shut out Northwestern for the first three quarters of their Big Ten opener and continued to look dominant even when scoring fewer than 60 points. Most of the teams ranked above them, though, have a more impressive win.
Why they could be higher: The Ducks are passing the eye test, albeit against weaker competition. They didn’t have any penalties in the win against Northwestern, and quarterback Dante Moore has only thrown one interception this season.
Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, so Penn State and Indiana (maybe USC?) will be the Ducks biggest obstacles to returning to the Big Ten title game. Even if the Ducks lose at Penn State, though, they could see the Nittany Lions again in the Big Ten championship (if Penn State can knock Ohio State out of it).
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 50.8% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Noles had a bye, and the committee typically doesn’t shift teams that don’t play — unless it results from movement around them. The season-opening win against Alabama continues to shine, as the Tide has rebounded with back-to-back convincing wins. It also helps separate FSU from other contenders who didn’t earn a nonconference win against a top-25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: The win against Bama is all they’ve got right now. The 77-3 blowout of FCS East Texas A&M won’t help them, and while the bye week isn’t a penalty, other teams had an opportunity to enhance their strength of record.
Need to know: Florida State doesn’t play Georgia Tech during the regular season, but it has a tricky trio against Miami, Clemson and at rival Florida. If the Noles can go 2-0 against the SEC, it would be a significant boost to their at-large hopes if they don’t win the ACC — assuming both the Gators and Tide finish above .500 and have respectable seasons.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. The Nov. 8 trip to Clemson looks less daunting now that the Tigers have lost a second game.
Why they could be here: The preseason rankings and hype are irrelevant in the committee meeting room but the weak nonconference schedule is not. Wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping the Nittany Lions behind teams who have played against better opponents. The offense found a groove during a dominant second half against the Wildcats and the defense did not allow a touchdown until the final play of the game.
Why they could be lower: Penn State’s nonconference win doesn’t include a Power 4 opponent, and questions linger about whether the offense is productive enough to beat Oregon. Expectations for quarterback Drew Allar were high entering this season, but he only has four passing touchdowns in three games against weaker opponents. He’s completed less than 60% of his passes in each of the past two games. The Nittany Lions rank No. 65 in offensive efficiency — and the selection committee will expect more.
Need to know: The Nittany Lions have a bye week before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule that ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: There was no hint of a letdown at Temple a week after beating Michigan. The committee has always shown an appreciation for starpower, and OU has it in quarterback John Mateer, who has resurrected the Sooners’ offense. Oklahoma’s lopsided win against an overmatched Temple team won’t do anything to boost its résumé, but it assured the Sooners of a 3-0 start heading into Saturday’s SEC opener against Auburn.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has changed the outlook of this team, and the win against Michigan is one of the better nonconference wins in the country. The Wolverines rebounded and whalloped Central Michigan 63-3, reiterating the potential of freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who was smothered by OU’s defense.
Need to know: Oklahoma started 3-0 last year with a win against Temple, too, but then lost four of its next five games. The win against Michigan and play of Mateer so far indicates this season could be different, but the season-defining stretch begins against rival Texas on Oct. 11. The back half of the Sooners’ schedule is loaded with seven straight games against opponents that entered Week 3 ranked.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 74.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols’ game was so close that Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward he almost felt like he should apologize: “I don’t think we should have won that game. I thought they outplayed us in a lot of ways.” The committee isn’t going to penalize the Vols for losing an overtime game at home to one of the SEC’s best teams, but it will wonder about allowing 44 points, 502 yards, and having 10 penalties and two turnovers. The committee will still respect the season-opening win against Syracuse, which has won each of its past two games against weaker opponents.
Why they could be lower: The lack of a true statement win plus the loss could drop them behind the Illini. Considering the offensive showing, though, it’s hard to make a case for Texas ahead of Tennessee. The committee would consider that the Vols lost at home, while Texas lost at Ohio State. Tennessee’s win against Syracuse, though, is better than anything on the Longhorns’ résumé so far.
Need to know: The Vols still have a realistic path to the SEC championship, where they could meet Georgia again. Tennessee doesn’t play LSU or Texas. It can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma, but the Vols get the Sooners at home.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 63.6% chance to win, but it’s the only other game on the schedule that the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Illini are 3-0 heading into their Big Ten opener at Indiana, including a road win at Duke. Illinois had no trouble with winless Western Michigan, but that’s not going to change its status in the committee meeting room this week. It didn’t help Illinois that Duke lost to Tulane, which somewhat devalues that win — at least for now.
Why they could be higher: Illinois is a legitimately talented, veteran team that continues to take care of business with a veteran quarterback in Luke Altmyer. The Illini entered the week ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency, another stat that would jump out at the committee.
Need to know: Saturday’s game at Indiana will be an under-the-radar game that could impact the CFP because both teams could be competing with each other for an at-large bid. The winner could ultimately knock the loser out with the head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s possible for them both to get in, but it’s hard to imagine the Big Ten getting five teams in the 12-team field (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana and Illinois).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 74.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns have won back-to-back games since their season-opening loss at Ohio State, but questions about the offense remain. Running backs CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner missed all or parts of the game with injuries, and quarterback Arch Manning had another underwhelming passing performance with one touchdown and an interception. He did account for two rushing touchdowns, but this was hardly a smooth performance. Texas was just 5-of-16 on third downs and 2-of-5 on fourth downs. Meanwhile, rival Oklahoma is soaring offensively with quarterback John Mateer, and the Sooners’ win against Michigan is better than anything Texas has earned.
Why they could be lower: It’s been Arch Maddening for Texas fans, who booed their quarterback after an interception in the red zone. That throw was part of 10 straight incompletions at one point. Manning completed just 5 of 16 passes (31%) in the first half for 69 yards.
Need to know: The Longhorns have one more tune-up game, on Saturday against Sam Houston, before opening SEC play on Oct. 4 at Florida.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 LSU
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Penn State
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 4 LSU
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
You know it’s probably going to be Arsenal or Manchester City for the Premier League title; Burnley and someone else for relegation; and one of, like, eight or nine different teams for the final two or three UEFA Champions League places.
These are the races that matter. These are the races we talk about. They frame everything that happens with a given club: Is the manager keeping the team safe from relegation? Are the new signings boosting the midtable club into the European places? Can that new striker put that already-excellent team over the top in the title race?
But in reality, clubs don’t function in this way. Or at least, they shouldn’t function in this way. They’re signing players, developing talent, and acquiring coaches with a multi-year view into the future. If everyone only cared about this season, every player in the league would be 27 years-old.
So, today, we’re going to rank all 20 Premier League clubs based on how the future looks. This isn’t a prediction for who is going to win the league in a couple of years — that wouldn’t be fun since we’d be stuck picking someone from the so-called Big Six. Instead, it’s a ranking of how likely a team is to have self-defined successful seasons in the future.
To create the rankings, we’ll use a combination of four inputs:
• Squad age: The team’s average age, weighted by minutes played this season, via FBref.
• Young talent: The combined Transfermarkt value of the team’s players aged 23 and under.
• Managerial stability: A combination of how likely the current manager is to be at the club in a few years and how confident we should be that the club would be able to replace their current manager with the right guy.
• Club health: A combination of how highly I think of the ownership and the team’s decision-makers, the state of the team’s financial health, and how likely they are to be relegated at some point.
We’ve ranked each club in each of the four categories, added them up, and came up with the following list. Let’s get to the Premier League Future Power Rankings!
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Overall score: 14
• Squad age: 5
• Young talent: 4
• Managerial stability: 3
• Club health: 2
Reason for hope: It doesn’t feel like any of their recent moves have been major successes. There’s no clear young star on the roster like Moisés Caicedo or Alexis Mac Allister. And teams aren’t knocking Brighton’s doors down to hire Fabian Hurzeler, either.
But despite all of that, the club is currently in 10th, and they have the seventh-best expected-goal differential in the league. Midtable might be the floor for a team that, according to FBref, has the fourth-lowest wage bill in the Premier League. Still, they still have a ton of young potential on the roster. If two of them become stars at the same time, this could be a Champions League club.
Reason for concern: Take all of that and spin it around. They haven’t whiffed on any signings, but the club has some more money now, thanks to its continued presence in the league and the growing financial gap between the Premier League and everyone else. And as Brighton have started to spend more on transfers for individual players, there haven’t been any real hits.
There’s a chance — a small one — that their player-identification model doesn’t work higher up the market.
Overall score: 19
• Squad age: 2
• Young talent: 11
• Managerial stability: 5
• Club health: 1
Reason for hope: Last season, Brentford’s per-game expected goal differential was plus-0.09. This season, Brentford’s per-game expected goal differential is plus-0.09. Did I mention that they lost their manager to Tottenham and their best player to Manchester United over the summer?
Reason for concern: They’ve outscored their opponents by one goal since they were promoted back in 2021. Given their wage bill — estimated by FBref to be the smallest in the league — that’s an incredible level of relative performance. But Brentford still haven’t shown the upside that we’ve seen from Brighton. One season of bad luck could still plunge them down into a relegation battle.
Overall score: 20
• Squad age: 9
• Young talent: 7
• Managerial stability: 1
• Club health: 3
Reason for hope: So much has gone wrong this season. Every key player has spent time on the sidelines. It’s increasingly looking like summer signing Viktor Gyökeres just isn’t good enough to play consistent minutes for a team at this level. And Manchester City have already passed them on goal differential.
… But despite all of that, they’ve clearly been the best team in the Premier League so far: a plus-1.09 xG differential, while no one else is even at plus-0.8.
Reason for concern: They’re all-in. After multiple seasons with one of the youngest rosters in England, this team’s average age is just, well, average. Gyokeres has attempted two shots in the Premier League in his last five appearances, and with sizable fees already invested into Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, they might be stuck with what they currently have at center forward.
Overall score: 23
• Squad age: 1
• Young talent: 1
• Managerial stability: 14
• Club health: 7
Reason for hope: They’ve collected more young talent than probably any other club in Premier League history. And those double No. 1 rankings don’t even include all of the great prospects over at Strasbourg, the ownership group’s other club in France.
Reason for concern: It’s still unclear whether the people in charge know how — or even want — to turn that talent into a team that could genuinely win domestic and continental trophies. Their current accounting books would violate the Premier League’s new squad-cost-ratio rules, and I don’t know if Enzo Maresca is the right guy for this job or if Chelsea know who his best replacement would be, either. We know Chelsea’s future is filled with talent — but we don’t know a whole lot beyond that.
Overall score: 25
• Squad age: 14
• Young talent: 3
• Managerial stability: 4
• Club health: 4
Reason for hope: Now, here’s the club where everything has gone wrong this season. Almost none of the new signings have played well. Most of the guys from last year’s team look worse. Mohamed Salah might leave the club — and might have already left the company of the best players in the world. Manager Arne Slot can’t find any of the right buttons to press. They’ve already lost more games than they did all of last season.
And yet: they’re two points back of fourth place in the Premier League and tied for sixth place in the big Champions League table.
Reason for concern: This was the first real transfer window for new-ish sporting director Richard Hughes. The club spent a ton of money — and they got significantly worse.
The Alexander Isak signing, in particular, was a massive departure from the way Liverpool usually do things: a record-breaking fee for an already-in-his-peak-years, injury-prone player with system-fit issues. Their transfer moves no longer deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Overall score: 29
• Squad age: 3
• Young talent: 15
• Managerial stability: 6
• Club health: 5
Reason for hope: The two more subjective rankings here are a combination of inference and what I know from people I talk to in the sport. But Bournemouth were willing to move on from a beloved manager who saved them from relegation because they (1) knew they got lucky, and (2) thought they’d identified a better option.
This kind of decision only gets made when a club really knows what it’s doing, from top to bottom. Most of the soccer world thought it was madness when they fired Gary O’Neil. Now, pretty much every club in the world would be willing to hire Andoni Iraola.
Reason for concern: The top-end talent seems to have dried out, and we’re already seeing it both from their results and performances this season. I trust Bournemouth to go through a rigorous process of identifying an eventual Iraola replacement — I trust they’ve already done it, too — but what does this team look like with a different coach and without players who will go on to start for PSG and Real Madrid?
Overall score: 31
• Squad age: 3
• Young talent: 2
• Managerial stability: 13
• Club health: 13
Reason for hope: After an era-ending season where the squad looked old and Pep Guardiola couldn’t find any solutions for a team that frequently got trampled by the Premier League’s increasing athleticism, City have turned the roster over in one offseason. They’re back to being title contenders — at home and abroad.
Reason for concern: There are those 115 Premier League charges still hanging over the club, and Pep Guardiola’s contract expires at the end of next season.
Man City have such financial power that they’ll always be competitive, but we’ve never seen a club with this much money be transformed into the vision of one man before. What happens when Pep leaves? And what punishment might the league still have in store for its most dominant club?
Overall score: 37
• Squad age: 12
• Young talent: 12
• Managerial stability: 7
• Club health: 6
Reason for hope: They’ve lost Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze in consecutive summers. And somehow, the more talent they lose, the better they get:
• 2023-24: minus-0.09 xG differential per game
• 2024-25: plus-0.30 xG differential per game
• 2025-26: plus-0.48 xG differential per game
Reason for concern: Oliver Glasner isn’t long for London — South London, at least — and Palace’s track record with coach hirings is mixed before the Austrian arrived to replace Roy Hodgson. While Palace seem to have a better handle on Championship prospects than anyone, their young-talent pipeline is starting to dry up. With Marc Guéhi expected to leave either in January or after the season, how many more star departures can they weather?
Overall score: 38
• Squad age: 6
• Young talent: 5
• Managerial stability: 16
• Club health: 11
Reason for hope: If Spurs had Brighton’s budget, we would be raving about all of the young talent they’ve built up over the past couple years. In fact, only Brighton and Chelsea have more 23-and-under players with an estimated market value of €10 million or more.
If you’re going to run off a bunch of disappointing seasons in a row, you need to be building for the future while your results are in the tank. Spurs have at least done that.
Reason for concern: They’re … getting worse? Here’s their expected goals differential, or xGD, over the past three seasons:
• 2023-24: plus-0.13 xGD/game
• 2024-25: minus-0.12 xGD/game
• 2025-26: minus-0.43 xGD/game
Former club chairman Daniel Levy is gone, but the club’s long-term performance level is lower than it’s been at any point this century.
Overall score: 40
• Squad age: 6
• Young talent: 10
• Managerial stability: 10
• Club health: 14
Reason for hope: Sunderland aren’t your typical relegation survivor. Sam Allardyce isn’t on the sidelines, and Gareth Barry isn’t playing in the midfield. Instead, they’re managed by Regis Le Bris, who had never coached in England before and had only been the manager at one other club before joining Sunderland.
And — OK, sure, Granit Xhaka is basically their Gareth Barry. But beyond him, this isn’t a roster of late- and post-peak Premier League vets. Just two of their most-used 11 players are in their 30s and almost everyone who comes off the bench is 25 or younger.
Reason for concern: Although they’re currently in eight place, they have the 17th-best xG differential in the Premier League. And that’s after a season in the Championship when they ranked seventh by the same metric. Now, xG isn’t a perfect indicator of team performance, but clubs that overperform their aggregate chance quality tend to eventually come crashing back to Earth — at some point.
Overall score: 41
• Squad age: 10
• Young talent: 6
• Managerial stability: 15
• Club health: 10
Reason for hope: They figured out how to fix the attack in a single summer. Last season, United scored 44 goals in 38 matches. This year, they’ve scored 30, and they’ve only played 16 games. For the first time in a long time, United identified a problem, threw a bunch of money at it, and actually got the result for which they were hoping.
Reason for concern: Five Manchester United players have created a combined 3.0 expected goals and assists so far this season. Four of them are 26 or older, two of them are 30-plus (Bruno Fernandes and Casemiro), and Ahmad Diallo is the only one (23) who still hasn’t hit his prime.
They’re going to have to replace Bruno and Casemiro over the next couple seasons, and by the time they figure it out, their two major attacking signings from this summer, Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, could already be aging out of their primes.
Overall score: 43
• Squad age: 18
• Young talent: 14
• Managerial stability: 2
• Club health: 9
Reason for hope: Here’s how many points every Premier League team has won since Oct. 24, 2022:
In other words, Aston Villa have been one of the four best teams in the Premier League since Unai Emery replaced Steven Gerrard.
Reason for concern: They’re really old — and they’re on a gonzo heater right now. I have no doubt that Villa’s weird style of play — high line with little pressure, slow possession but also lots of through balls — is fooling the models that measure these things, but Villa are three points off the table despite, uh …
Can they retool as the roster gets older and the results inevitably start to go against them?
Overall score: 44
• Squad age: 16
• Young talent: 9
• Managerial stability: 11
• Club health: 8
Reason for hope: If Lewis Hall can stay healthy, Newcastle might have the best pair of young fullbacks in the Premier League — if not the world.
Both Hall and Tino Livramento are already fantastic passers, and I think the single-best predictor of whether or not a young player will have a successful career might be how much progressive passing they do. Livramento is 23, Hall 21, and they both rank in the 84th percentile or better among all players at their position across Europe’s Big Five top leagues for progressive passes completed.
Reason for concern: That’s really it? Nick Woltemade has been OK to start his career, Anthony Gordon is a solid Premier League player, but every other key contributor to this team is at the end or already past his peak years.
The first era of Saudi ownership at the club was an on-field success; they were in a relegation battle when the new owners came in; they’ve been a top five team in the league since. But that version of Newcastle looks like it’s reaching its conclusion. What comes next?
Overall score: 51
• Squad age: 8
• Young talent: 8
• Managerial stability: 18
• Club health: 17
Reason for hope: They’re even younger than they look. Among the 14 players who have featured in at least 400 minutes this season, just two are older than 30: 33-year-old keeper Mats Selz, who has played every minute of all but one match this season, and 34-year-old striker Chris Wood, who has only started seven games but pushes the average age up since he’s so old.
Nikola Milenkovic and Ibrahim Sangaré are both 28, but the other 10 players are all 25 or younger. A lot of their big signings from this summer haven’t featured much yet, and many of them are 23-and-under, so there’s potential for Forest to get even younger
Reason for concern: This is the worst-run team in the league because of the guy who owns it. Now, there are a bunch of smart people working at Forest, and you can see it shine through in every fourth or fifth signing they make — hello, Elliott Anderson! — but they’re already on their third manager of the season.
Sean Dyche has stabilized the club after the philosophical whiplash from Nuno Espirito-Santo to Ange Postecoglu, but owner Evangelos Marinakis is a complete wild card who is liable to do something ridiculous at any moment. The only reason they aren’t lower is that they’re five points clear of the relegation battle.
Overall score: 52
• Squad age: 18
• Young talent: 13
• Managerial stability: 9
• Club health: 12
Reason for hope: David Moyes has been willing to play Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Ilman Ndiaye, and Jack Grealish … and a center forward all at the same time. While they’re still waiting for one of those strikers to start producing, KDH, Ndiaye, and Grealish all rank in the top 15 in the league for expected assists created. That’s something to build on!
Reason for concern: Grealish is only on loan, and this is tied with Villa and Fulham for the oldest team in the league. Everton signed a bunch of young prospects this summer, but Thierno Barry, Tyler Dibling, and Adam Aznou have combined to start 10 matches this season. Dibling has only played 80 minutes; Anzou hasn’t played at all. There is some young talent on this roster — internal solutions to the aging issue — but can we trust Moyes to integrate the next generation?
Overall score: 60
• Squad age: 13
• Young talent: 20
• Managerial stability: 12
• Club health: 15
Reason for hope: Leeds were one of the all-time great Championship sides last season, and they were one of the most popular picks I can remember for a promoted side to stay up. They’re currently just one spot clear of the relegation places, but they’ve been significantly better than that.
Through 16 matches, their total xG differential is just minus-1.0 — a fantastic mark for a team that was in the second-division last season, and the 11th-best differential in the league so far.
Reason for concern: Wilfried Gnonto is the only player under the age of 25 who has even played a single minute for Leeds this season. And he’s only started four matches. Part of the reason Leeds were so good last season and why their underlying performance has been so impressive is that they’re built to win right now. But beyond the next couple of years, the cupboard is almost completely bare.
Overall score: 61
• Squad age: 18
• Young talent: 19
• Managerial stability: 8
• Club health: 16
Reason for hope: After Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta — or, the managers for the two best teams in the league — Marco Silva is the Premier League’s longest-serving manager. They’re only ranked eighth in my managerial-stability rating because Fulham’s previous managerial hiring history is total chaos, but while he’s there, Silva secures the club’s floor.
This might not sound like a compliment, but it is: We can be confident that Marco Silva is not going to make Fulham worse than the aggregate talent on their roster.
Reason for concern: Outside of midfielder Joshua King, there’s no young talent making any kind of impact. And, well, there’s not much peak-age talent, either. Seven of Fulham’s 11 most-used players are 29 or older. Unless they start signing some younger players and integrating them into the club soon, the bottom could fall out — especially if someone else decides they want to hire Silva.
Overall score: 65
• Squad age: 14
• Young talent: 16
• Managerial stability: 17
• Club health: 18
Reason for hope: They spent a combined €66 million on a pair of 21-and-under prospects, Mateus Fernandes and El Hadji Malick Diouf, this summer, and both of them pretty much immediately became two of the most important players on the team. For a club that’s too long obsessed over acquiring famous older players like Niclas Füllkrug, the identification and subsequent integration of Fernandes and Diouf is a notable, positive change.
Reason for concern: They’re terrible? Simon Tinsley’s projections give the Hammers a 50% chance of being relegated. Per FBref, West Ham are paying higher wages than half of the teams in the league, and they’re currently a coin-flip away from lugging an expensive, aging roster down to the Championship.
Overall score: 69
• Squad age: 11
• Young talent: 18
• Managerial stability: 20
• Club health: 20
Reason for hope: I, uh, their roster isn’t that old? I’m struggling here …
Reason for concern: They have two points through 16 matches, they’ve scored the fewest goals, and they’ve conceded the most goals. Both of the sites I’ve mentioned put their probability of being relegated north of 96%.
Overall score: 72
• Squad age: 17
• Young talent: 17
• Managerial stability: 19
• Club health: 19
Reason for hope: They’re only six points from safety, and stranger things have happened … right?
Reason for concern: According to FBref’s Stathead database, which goes back to the 2017-18 season, only three Premier League teams have posted a per-game xG differential below minus-1.0: Norwich City in 2021-22, Southampton last season, and Burnley this year. Those other two teams? They both finished in 20th.
The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has opened registration for foreign players interested in participating in the 11th edition of the Pakistan Super League (PSL).
“The foreign player registration window for the 11th edition of the PSL is now officially open,” the cricket body said in a statement issued on Friday.
The announcement comes as the league enters a “historic expansion” phase, with the addition of two new franchises, opening the door for greater international participation in what is set to be the league’s largest season to date.
The PCB said the expansion to eight teams will create significantly more roster spots and earning opportunities for overseas players.
“Agents and independent players are encouraged to complete their registration before January 20, 2026, to be included in the Player Pool,” the PCB said, adding that the registration link is available on its official website.
Launched in 2016, the PSL will feature eight teams for the first time in its 11th edition. The auction for the two new franchises is scheduled to be held in Islamabad on January 8 and will be broadcast live, the board said.
Earlier, the PCB had extended the deadline for bids for the two new franchises by a week, citing strong interest from investors in Europe, the United States and the Middle East.
The extension was announced by PCB Chairman Mohsin Naqvi on his official X account, who said the deadline had been moved from December 15 to December 22.
With the upcoming expansion, the PSL will undergo its first major structural change in seven years, officially increasing the number of franchises from six to eight.
Real Madrid defender Éder Militão is “100%” confident he will be fit in time to play at the 2026 World Cup.
The Brazil international ruptured the biceps femoris tendon in his left leg during Madrid’s 2-0 league defeat against Celta Vigo on Dec. 7 and could be sidelined until April 2026.
Using crutches, Militao, arrived in Rio de Janeiro on Thursday and told reporters: “No return date has been set. The priority is the World Cup.
“Doing things well so I can come back strong. [I’m] 100% confident.”
“When fit, Militao, who played at the 2022 World Cup, has been a regular in Brazil’s squads.
“Militao, 27, has struggled with serious injuries in recent seasons. In August 2023, he tore his left ACL and only returned to action in March 2024. Last season, he was sidelined for eight months after tearing his right ACL and damaging his meniscus.
“Carlo Ancelotti, who coached Militao at Madrid before taking over the Brazil national team in May, recently warned his players that only those that are “100 percent fit” will make Brazil’s World Cup squad.
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Militao is expected to miss Brazil’s international friendlies against France and Croatia in the March international window.
Five-time winners Brazil begin their World Cup campaign against Morocco on June 13 in New York. They face Haiti six days later in Philadelphia before their final Group C game against Scotland in Miami.
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