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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 3

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 3


It’s three weeks into the season and Notre Dame has dropped out of the playoff conversation with an 0-2 start following its home loss to Texas A&M on Saturday.

In what was a wild, entertaining evening of college football. Georgia’s overtime win at Tennessee was overshadowed by what unfolded later in South Bend because the Aggies’ win had the bigger, more immediate impact on the playoff race.

And it’s gonna last all season for the Irish, who no longer have any margin for error and have lost all control on their path to the playoff.

“The future’s uncertain,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “I don’t know what’s the playoff number, and it doesn’t matter. We need to focus on getting better.”

So what does it mean for Texas A&M?

This list is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Like the selection committee, it is a ranking based on what each team has done to-date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

Jump to:
Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Texas remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country, but the Longhorns continue to have questions on offense against far less elite defenses. The Buckeyes entered this week No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and are ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — traits of past top-four playoff teams.

Why they could be lower: The committee does track when teams play FCS teams, and the 70-0 drubbing of Grambling doesn’t help Ohio State’s résumé. Saturday’s win against Ohio also doesn’t do much for the Buckeyes during a week in which Miami, Georgia and LSU all played tougher teams.

Need to know: Even if Texas doesn’t live up to the preseason hype and ranking, the selection committee will continue to respect Ohio State’s win against the Longhorns all season — as long as Texas doesn’t come unraveled. It will be a moot point if Ohio State locks up a CFP spot by winning the Big Ten, but it would enter the conversation and help the Buckeyes when it comes to how high they can be seeded for an at-large bid. The top four teams now get the top four seeds — regardless of if they are a conference champion.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.8% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Canes added to their résumé with a win against South Florida, which should still be the Group of 5’s top contender for a playoff spot. Coupled with the season-opening win against Notre Dame, Miami has one of the best combinations of eye test and résumé in the country.

Why they could be lower: The committee could be more impressed with the SEC wins, period. Georgia’s overtime road win against Tennessee could trump Miami’s home win against the Irish, and LSU’s two Power 4 wins against Clemson and now Florida could also usurp the Canes in a debate.

Need to know: Saturday’s win against the Bulls was a critical head-to-head tiebreaker that would be used in the committee meeting room if both teams finish with similar records. Even if they lock up spots as their respective conference champions, Miami would keep the edge — and the higher seed — on Selection Day, which could mean the difference in hosting a first-round home game.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 54.3% chance to beat their rival.


Why they could be here: The win against Tennessee in the SEC opener was the Bulldogs’ first statement victory, and it now lifts them above other contenders who have played well but against weaker teams. Ohio State’s defense, though, continues to keep the Buckeyes at the top, and Miami’s two wins against ranked teams — Notre Dame and South Florida — gives them an edge in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which is similar to what the committee uses.

Why they could be higher: The committee considers the difficulty of playing overtime games on the road, and the former coaches and players in the room would also recognize the growth of quarterback Gunner Stockton in that unforgiving environment. Stockton completed 23 of 31 attempts for 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for a score.

Need to know: It’s possible this instant classic could get a replay — either in the SEC championship game, the playoff — or both. The selection committee doesn’t try to avoid rematches when it’s ranking the teams, so it’s possible for Georgia and Tennessee to play as many as three times.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have bye week to prepare for it, but the Tide has shown continuous improvement since its season-opening loss to Florida State.


Why they could be here: The Tigers’ season-opening win at Clemson took another hit after the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, and the true value of beating a beleaguered Florida team at home is yet to be determined. Still, those combined wins outweigh what most of the contenders below them have accomplished. LSU’s defense has been a highlight, as the Tigers were No. 11 in the country in defensive efficiency heading into Week 3. They shut the Gators out in the second half and quarterback DJ Lagway threw five interceptions.

Why they could be lower: The Tigers still haven’t flashed that wow factor, continuing to do just enough to win while overcoming mistakes. LSU only had 10 first downs (compared to 22 by Florida), was held under 100 yards rushing, and was 4-of-14 on third downs. LSU ranks behind several other contenders listed below in ESPN’s game control metric.

Need to know: LSU should be undefeated heading into its Sept. 27 game at Ole Miss, which will be one of three critical road trip that will define the Tigers’ season. LSU also travels to Alabama and Oklahoma. The win against the Gators gives them a much-needed cushion, but they can’t go 0-3 on the road against those teams — and that doesn’t count the Oct. 18 trip to Vandy, which just beat South Carolina.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.6% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The road win at Notre Dame was the first statement playoff win under coach Mike Elko, and it gives the Aggies one of the best nonconference wins of the season. It’s arguably better than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M did it on the road. It certainly wasn’t a flawless performance, but it was enough to boost the Aggies into the conversation.

Why they could be lower: It’s hard to tell how good a win against Notre Dame is this year, considering they’re 0-2. Texas A&M’s other two wins were against UTSA and Utah State, which won’t help their résumé.

Need to know: The selection committee compares results against common opponents. While it’s not an overriding factor, the group would at least consider how Miami and Texas A&M both looked in their wins against the Irish if they were comparing the Aggies and Canes side-by-side during the ranking process.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road.


Why they could be here: With wins against Montana State, Oklahoma State and Northwestern, the Ducks have yet to be tested against ranked competition, but they haven’t had any scares along the way. They shut out Northwestern for the first three quarters of their Big Ten opener and continued to look dominant even when scoring fewer than 60 points. Most of the teams ranked above them, though, have a more impressive win.

Why they could be higher: The Ducks are passing the eye test, albeit against weaker competition. They didn’t have any penalties in the win against Northwestern, and quarterback Dante Moore has only thrown one interception this season.

Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, so Penn State and Indiana (maybe USC?) will be the Ducks biggest obstacles to returning to the Big Ten title game. Even if the Ducks lose at Penn State, though, they could see the Nittany Lions again in the Big Ten championship (if Penn State can knock Ohio State out of it).

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 50.8% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.


Why they could be here: The Noles had a bye, and the committee typically doesn’t shift teams that don’t play — unless it results from movement around them. The season-opening win against Alabama continues to shine, as the Tide has rebounded with back-to-back convincing wins. It also helps separate FSU from other contenders who didn’t earn a nonconference win against a top-25 opponent.

Why they could be lower: The win against Bama is all they’ve got right now. The 77-3 blowout of FCS East Texas A&M won’t help them, and while the bye week isn’t a penalty, other teams had an opportunity to enhance their strength of record.

Need to know: Florida State doesn’t play Georgia Tech during the regular season, but it has a tricky trio against Miami, Clemson and at rival Florida. If the Noles can go 2-0 against the SEC, it would be a significant boost to their at-large hopes if they don’t win the ACC — assuming both the Gators and Tide finish above .500 and have respectable seasons.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. The Nov. 8 trip to Clemson looks less daunting now that the Tigers have lost a second game.


Why they could be here: The preseason rankings and hype are irrelevant in the committee meeting room but the weak nonconference schedule is not. Wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping the Nittany Lions behind teams who have played against better opponents. The offense found a groove during a dominant second half against the Wildcats and the defense did not allow a touchdown until the final play of the game.

Why they could be lower: Penn State’s nonconference win doesn’t include a Power 4 opponent, and questions linger about whether the offense is productive enough to beat Oregon. Expectations for quarterback Drew Allar were high entering this season, but he only has four passing touchdowns in three games against weaker opponents. He’s completed less than 60% of his passes in each of the past two games. The Nittany Lions rank No. 65 in offensive efficiency — and the selection committee will expect more.

Need to know: The Nittany Lions have a bye week before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule that ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.8% chance to win.


Why they could be here: There was no hint of a letdown at Temple a week after beating Michigan. The committee has always shown an appreciation for starpower, and OU has it in quarterback John Mateer, who has resurrected the Sooners’ offense. Oklahoma’s lopsided win against an overmatched Temple team won’t do anything to boost its résumé, but it assured the Sooners of a 3-0 start heading into Saturday’s SEC opener against Auburn.

Why they could be higher: Mateer has changed the outlook of this team, and the win against Michigan is one of the better nonconference wins in the country. The Wolverines rebounded and whalloped Central Michigan 63-3, reiterating the potential of freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who was smothered by OU’s defense.

Need to know: Oklahoma started 3-0 last year with a win against Temple, too, but then lost four of its next five games. The win against Michigan and play of Mateer so far indicates this season could be different, but the season-defining stretch begins against rival Texas on Oct. 11. The back half of the Sooners’ schedule is loaded with seven straight games against opponents that entered Week 3 ranked.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 74.6% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Vols’ game was so close that Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward he almost felt like he should apologize: “I don’t think we should have won that game. I thought they outplayed us in a lot of ways.” The committee isn’t going to penalize the Vols for losing an overtime game at home to one of the SEC’s best teams, but it will wonder about allowing 44 points, 502 yards, and having 10 penalties and two turnovers. The committee will still respect the season-opening win against Syracuse, which has won each of its past two games against weaker opponents.

Why they could be lower: The lack of a true statement win plus the loss could drop them behind the Illini. Considering the offensive showing, though, it’s hard to make a case for Texas ahead of Tennessee. The committee would consider that the Vols lost at home, while Texas lost at Ohio State. Tennessee’s win against Syracuse, though, is better than anything on the Longhorns’ résumé so far.

Need to know: The Vols still have a realistic path to the SEC championship, where they could meet Georgia again. Tennessee doesn’t play LSU or Texas. It can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma, but the Vols get the Sooners at home.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 63.6% chance to win, but it’s the only other game on the schedule that the Vols aren’t projected to win.


Why they could be here: The Illini are 3-0 heading into their Big Ten opener at Indiana, including a road win at Duke. Illinois had no trouble with winless Western Michigan, but that’s not going to change its status in the committee meeting room this week. It didn’t help Illinois that Duke lost to Tulane, which somewhat devalues that win — at least for now.

Why they could be higher: Illinois is a legitimately talented, veteran team that continues to take care of business with a veteran quarterback in Luke Altmyer. The Illini entered the week ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency, another stat that would jump out at the committee.

Need to know: Saturday’s game at Indiana will be an under-the-radar game that could impact the CFP because both teams could be competing with each other for an at-large bid. The winner could ultimately knock the loser out with the head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s possible for them both to get in, but it’s hard to imagine the Big Ten getting five teams in the 12-team field (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana and Illinois).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 74.5% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Longhorns have won back-to-back games since their season-opening loss at Ohio State, but questions about the offense remain. Running backs CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner missed all or parts of the game with injuries, and quarterback Arch Manning had another underwhelming passing performance with one touchdown and an interception. He did account for two rushing touchdowns, but this was hardly a smooth performance. Texas was just 5-of-16 on third downs and 2-of-5 on fourth downs. Meanwhile, rival Oklahoma is soaring offensively with quarterback John Mateer, and the Sooners’ win against Michigan is better than anything Texas has earned.

Why they could be lower: It’s been Arch Maddening for Texas fans, who booed their quarterback after an interception in the red zone. That throw was part of 10 straight incompletions at one point. Manning completed just 5 of 16 passes (31%) in the first half for 69 yards.

Need to know: The Longhorns have one more tune-up game, on Saturday against Sam Houston, before opening SEC play on Oct. 4 at Florida.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 LSU

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Penn State

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 4 LSU
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State



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Notre Dame men join women in winning inaugural three-weapon title

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Notre Dame men join women in winning inaugural three-weapon title


SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Notre Dame’s Ahmed Hesham won the men’s saber Sunday, and the Fighting Irish men joined the women in winning the inaugural three-weapon national championship at the Joyce Center.

Hesham defeated St. John’s Adham Moataz 15-12 in the final after a third-place finish last season.

Notre Dame finished with 91 points, 10 better than runner-up Columbia. St. John’s (63), Harvard (62) and Pennsylvania (58) rounded out the top five.

Notre Dame’s Chase Emmer fell short in defense of his foil title after losing 15-8 to Columbia’s Sam Kumbla in the final.

Fighting Irish freshman Kruz Schembri made it to the épée final before losing to North Carolina’s Youssef Shamel 15-7.

The Fighting Irish trio led all three disciplines after the first day.

Notre Dame won 14 co-ed championships, including six of the last eight. The Fighting Irish won last season’s title in the final year of the combined men’s and women’s team championship.

Notre Dame edged Columbia 102-99 on Friday to win the first women’s three-weapon title. Eszter Muhan won the épée for the Irish.



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Men’s March Madness live tracker: Updates from all of Sunday’s games

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Men’s March Madness live tracker: Updates from all of Sunday’s games


The first half of the Sweet 16 is set, with 16 teams playing for one of the final eight tickets to the second weekend of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament as the second round continues Sunday.

ESPN reporters are on-site across the country, from Philadelphia to San Diego, to deliver courtside insights. Follow along as they and the staff track all the action.


Jump to: Previews for rest of Sunday’s games


Previews

All times Eastern.

5:15 p.m., CBS

How Kansas can advance to the Sweet 16: Flory Bidunga has to be the key for Kansas against St. John’s. He will have his hands full against Zuby Ejiofor, one of the best two-way big men in the country, but Bidunga has held his own in matchups against Motiejus Krivas and JT Toppin. Bidunga has also struggled mightily in other big games, five points and four points in two games against Houston, two points against Arizona and eight points against North Carolina, and his win/loss splits are telling. In Kansas’ wins, Bidunga averages 15.1 points and shoots better than 70% from the field. In losses, he averages 9.9 points and shoots 50.6% from the field. Defensively, the Jayhawks have to keep St. John’s out of transition and force the Red Storm to make perimeter shots. They ranked near the bottom of the Big East in 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points from 3s. Their 10 3s against Northern Iowa was the first time they made double-digit 3s in a game since Jan. 10. — Borzello

How St. John’s can advance to the Sweet 16: The biggest edge St. John’s will have against Kansas is on the offensive glass. The Red Storm are one of the most effective offensive rebounding teams in the country, ranking 17th nationally in second-chance points per game. Kansas, meanwhile, was one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the Big 12, allowing opponents to rebound nearly 32% of their misses. Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell should get extra possessions for the Red Storm. With the exception of the drubbing at UConn in late February, St. John’s defense has been operating at an incredibly high level for several weeks. The Red Storm have allowed their past five opponents to make an average of just 3.4 3-pointers per game. — Borzello


6:10 p.m., TNT

How Virginia can advance to the Sweet 16: This isn’t Tony Bennett’s team anymore. The Cavaliers knock down 3s and also score with a rugged game in the paint. They also have a top-25 defense. They’ll need all of those tools against Tennessee, which is No. 1 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. They can’t allow the Vols to dominate with second-chance points, and the Cavaliers are equipped to do that thanks to a top-five defense inside the arc. They’ll also have to limit the touches of projected NBA draft lottery pick Nate Ament. Tennessee is 2-3 in its past five games when he shoots nine or fewer shots inside the arc. They also have to pressure Ja’Kobi Gillespie (11 turnovers in the past four losses). The Cavaliers’ 3-point barrage must continue after Virginia made 13 against Wright State. The Cavaliers probably can’t win without a big game from Thijs De Ridder, but they will struggle if they go cold from the 3-point line. — Medcalf

How Tennessee can advance to the Sweet 16: Rick Barnes’ team ended Miami (Ohio)’s fairy tale Friday. The Volunteers outscored Travis Steele’s squad 40-16 in the paint to advance — and they did it despite projected NBA draft lottery pick Ament going 0-for-3 in the game. The Vols will need Ament to look more like the player who scored 27 points in an SEC tournament win over Auburn to reach the Sweet 16. Ja’Kobi Gillespie continues to make this group soar. If he gets to his spots, Ament plays to his potential and the Vols dominate the offensive glass, they will have the offensive tools to win. But nearly 50% of Virginia’s field goal attempts are 3-pointers, and the Cavaliers are a top-10 offensive rebounding team. They can play Tennessee’s game, too. The Vols will have to play it better. — Medcalf


7:10 p.m., TBS

How Florida can advance to the Sweet 16: Florida’s game prep will focus on stopping Bennett Stirtz and getting the ball out of his hands. Stirtz is a high-usage point guard, and Ben McCollum’s system revolves around him having a hand in nearly every possession. Boogie Fland has really developed as a defender this season and will likely be tasked with guarding Stirtz. The rest of Florida’s plan will be about imposing its will. The Gators are bigger and more athletic than Iowa, and they’re elite on defense. If they can speed the game up and make Iowa uncomfortable, it’s hard to picture the Hawkeyes keeping up. Iowa hasn’t played a game with more than 70 possessions this season; Florida averages 70.7 possessions per game, per KenPom. — Borzello

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No. 1 Florida vs. No. 9 Iowa game preview

Check out some stats on the matchup between Florida and Iowa in the NCAA men’s tournament.

How Iowa can advance to the Sweet 16: On paper, Iowa is in for a tough night down low against Florida. The Gators have one of the most dominant frontcourts in the country, ranking second nationally in paint points per game and third in second-chance points per game. They also lead the country in offensive rebounds per game. Iowa doesn’t block shots and allows opponents to shoot 56.5% inside the arc in Big Ten play, but the Hawkeyes played a frontcourt with comparable size and ability when they faced Michigan earlier this month. And though they lost, they held their own up front, outscoring the Wolverines in the paint and scoring more second-chance points. Can the Hawkeyes repeat the feat against Florida? Iowa will also have to get the game at its preferred pace, one of the slowest in the country, forcing the Gators to play in the halfcourt more than they would like. — Borzello


7:50 p.m., truTV

How Arizona can advance to the Sweet 16: Arizona doesn’t have to tweak anything to its game plan to reach its third consecutive Sweet 16. Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley scored just seven points against LIU on Friday, and the Wildcats still put up 92 points. If they continue to rely on that depth, they’ll be difficult to stop; five Arizona players scored at least eight points in the win over Long Island. Plus, the Wildcats, who have been criticized after making just 33% of their 3-point attempts in Big 12 play, have made 39% of their shots from beyond the arc over their current 10-game winning streak. They’re different now. To stop Utah State’s offense, Arizona will have to defend well against numerous ball screens that put MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev in positions to score. The Aggies will probably attack 7-foot-2 Arizona center Motiejus Krivas more than anyone else on those ball screens, and attempt to use their speed to set up big plays for their top guards. Utah State will need a magical effort to beat Arizona. — Medcalf

How Utah State can advance to the Sweet 16: Utah State will need another clutch effort from Collins and Falslev — one of the best guard duos in America who combined for 42 points against Villanova — to advance past Arizona, a team with just two losses. In the second half of Friday’s game, the pair got hot thanks in part because of off-ball screens and backdoor cuts to the basket. They have to find their spots to have a chance against Arizona, too. On defense, the Aggies could follow two blueprints against Arizona: Kansas refused to relent to Arizona’s bruising frontcourt, and Texas Tech needed a combination of 31 points from JT Toppin and perimeter pressure that held the Wildcats to a 4-for-16 clip from 3. But the Wildcats are diverse, so Utah State will need 6-foot-10 Zach Keller and 6-foot-9 Adlan Elamin to protect the paint. The Aggies will also need their guards to limit an Arizona team that has been hot from beyond the arc in recent weeks. — Medcalf


8:45 p.m., TNT

How UConn can advance to the Sweet 16: UConn can win most of its matchups in this game, even if Silas Demary Jr. is unavailable. Solo Ball can create shots off the dribble, Alex Karaban is a threat on the perimeter as a 38.6% 3-point shooter, Tarris Reed Jr. just finished with 31 points and 27 rebounds in the win over Furman, and Braylon Mullins is a first-round NBA prospect. The Huskies have dealt with efficiency issues and turnovers in recent weeks, but if they can play with more rhythm, they can beat any team in the country. If Tyler Bilodeau returns, however, their bigs — including Reed — will be challenged to defend in space. Still, a Huskies team with wins over Florida, BYU and St. John’s has overcome more star power than UCLA has on its roster. UConn can keep things simple and win. — Medcalf

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No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 2 UConn game preview

Check out some stats on the matchup between UCLA and UConn in the NCAA men’s tournament.

How UCLA can advance to the Sweet 16: It would help if Bilodeau returned. The 6-foot-9 star is UCLA’s best 3-point shooter — he spaces the floor for the Bruins in a unique manner that balances their offense. Against UConn, his presence would be a difference-maker because of his size and talent. Without him, the Bruins have to work harder to find open looks against a UConn squad with a top-15 defense. And Donovan Dent, who was 4-for-17 from the field against UCF, can’t be a spectator in this game. He was one of the most coveted transfers in the portal during the offseason. He has to play to his ceiling to help UCLA beat a team that has won two of the past three national titles.

On defense, Xavier Booker will have the responsibility of containing Reed, who just finished with 31 points and 27 rebounds in a win over Furman. If the 6-foot-11 Booker can’t slow down Reed, UCLA won’t have a chance. The Bruins should also look to exploit UConn’s ballhandling woes — the Huskies have committed 79 turnovers in their past six games — especially if Demary is out again. — Medcalf


9:45 p.m., TBS

How Alabama can advance to the Sweet 16: Similar to Tech’s keys, Alabama has to win the perimeter battle. The Crimson Tide shoot the ball at an incredible volume from beyond the arc, but are not quite as accurate as the Red Raiders — and the Tide have lost four of the six games in which they have made fewer than 10 3s. Moreover, Alabama’s 3-point defense is far worse than Texas Tech’s 3-point defense. Without Aden Holloway, Alabama has fewer players who can get their own shot off the dribble, making the Crimson Tide more reliant on Labaron Philon Jr. to have another big game. As one of the elite playmakers and shotmakers in the sport, Philon is likely up for the task. But he’ll be facing a fellow All-American and first-round pick in Christian Anderson. Who wins that matchup? That’s the key. — Borzello

How Texas Tech can advance to the Sweet 16: Texas Tech is one of the few teams in America that can keep up with Alabama from the perimeter. Though the Crimson Tide lead the country in 3-point attempt rate and made 3-pointers per game, the Red Raiders aren’t far behind — they’re third nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and fifth in made 3-pointers per game. They’ve leaned into it even more since JT Toppin suffered a season-ending right knee injury, with a 3-point attempt rate above 51% in four of its past five games. At the other end, can Tech keep Philon from getting into the lane at will? He is a bit bigger than Anderson, but Donovan Atwell has shown promise as an individual defender and could draw the assignment. — Borzello



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Man City beat passive Arsenal in Carabao Cup; Premier League title race not over?

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Man City beat passive Arsenal in Carabao Cup; Premier League title race not over?


LONDON — A second-half brace from Nico O’Reilly ensured Manchester City beat Arsenal 2-0 in Sunday’s Carabao Cup final to earn Pep Guardiola’s 19th trophy in charge of the club.

After a cagey opening 45 minutes of few chances at Wembley, Man City upped the tempo and scored on the hour mark after a bad mistake from Gunners stand-in goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga. Kepa could only get his fingertips to Rayan Cherki‘s cross and O’Reilly beat Martín Zubimendi to the loose ball for a simple close-range header.

City doubled their lead four minutes later as Cherki releases Matheus Nunes and his cross found O’Reilly in a similar position to score.

With the result, Arsenal’s hopes of an unprecedented quadruple are over and their six-year wait for a trophy goes on. Meanwhile, City will hope this victory can inspire them to overhaul a nine-point deficit to the Gunners in the Premier League. — James Olley


Premier League Power Rankings: Why Arsenal dropped below Man City
No plan, no fight: Spurs near relegation after limp loss to Forest
UWCL quarterfinal predictions: Will Arsenal beat Chelsea?


Passive Arsenal’s trophy drought continues

Arsenal have occupied a curious position for a while: they were in the hunt for a Quadruple while also facing questions over their ability to win any silverware at all.

The Gunners’ last trophy was the 2020 FA Cup but manager Mikel Arteta’s transformational job in the interim has positioned them on the brink of greatness. After three consecutive second-place finishes in the Premier League, the one remaining ask of them — and it is a big one — is this: can they get over the line and win?

The answer here at Wembley, yet again, was no. They ultimately paid the price for being too passive, concerned primarily with keeping City out rather than injecting enough risk in their play to create chances.

After an opening salvo, Arsenal sat deep and struggled to exert any sustained pressure, and their second-half showing was alarmingly underwhelming. Yet, they have a healthy nine-point lead at the top of the table, an inviting Champions League quarterfinal tie against Sporting Lisbon and an FA Cup quarter-final at Championship side Southampton.

Their season could still be spectacular. But trophies don’t often come to you — you tend to have to reach out and grab them. Arsenal’s ability to do that is still in doubt. — Olley


Man City put Arsenal on notice in Premier League race

Speaking at his pre-match news conference on Friday, Guardiola was reluctant to make any link between possible victory over Arsenal in the final having an impact in the title race.

“We could play good in the final and then bad in the league,” was his conclusion.

It’s a fair point, but one which ignores the nerves in Arsenal’s fanbase as they chase a first Premier League title in more than 20 years. Nine points clear, it’s theirs to lose. But City have a game in hand and Arsenal still have to travel to the Etihad in April. One slip up from Arteta’s team and it’s game on.

There were no league points on offer at Wembley, but there will be plenty of Arsenal fans heading home after the game nervous about what’s to come over the next few weeks.

The question all season has been about whether they have the mentality to get over the line when it really matters. In an age driven by data and statistics, it’s impossible to quantify what losing a cup final to City will do to their confidence.

It’s something that will only be answered on the pitch, starting with their next league game against Bournemouth at the Emirates on April 11. — Rob Dawson


O’Reilly the face of Man City’s new era

For Bernardo Silva, this was a fifth Carabao Cup final win. But for others, including match-winner O’Reilly, it was a first medal in City colours. Siva is one of the last remaining players of the treble-winning 2022-23 team. He’s likely to leave in the summer — possibly with Guardiola.

City’s new team has already started to evolve around him, built around younger players like Marc Guéhi, Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki. O’Reilly, a graduate of the club’s academy, is another important piece.

He turned 21 the day before the Carabao Cup final and could yet have another decade in the first-team. He started at left-back against Arsenal — a position he could fill for England at the World Cup — but it’s likely that eventually nail down a place in midfield, the position he played regularly as he came through the ranks.

Wherever he plays, O’Reilly will become one of the faces of City’s new era. One without Guardiola or long-serving stalwarts like Silva. Depending on the next two months play out, this could end up being Guardiola’s last trophy at City. It’s likely to be the first of many for O’Reilly. — Dawson


Backup goalkeepers help decide the Carabao Cup

Neither team fielded their first-choice goalkeeper here. Guardiola confirmed on Friday that James Trafford would start for City while Arteta admitted he had made his decision but did not publicly state Kepa would play.

The pair could not have had more contrasting fortunes. While Trafford made a superb triple save from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka (twice) in the seventh minute to stifle Arsenal’s positive start, Kepa made the mistake which turned a tight contest in City’s favour. The Spaniard could only get his fingertips to Rayan Cherki’s 60th-minute cross, taking all the pace off the ball as it dropped behind him, where O’Reilly stooped to head in.

Kepa’s complicated relationship with this fixture continues: he sensationally refused to be substituted when Chelsea lost the 2019 final to City and then missed in the shootout as the Blues were beaten by Liverpool on penalties three years later.

Kepa started every game in this competition and the decision to continue was perfectly logical in theory but David Raya is one of the best in the world these days and leaving him out may be a source of regret for Arteta. Trafford is likely to leave City after joining last summer expecting a prominent role, only for Gianluigi Donnarumma to join afterwards and usurp him. His time at City may be short but he played a key role in having something to show for it. — Olley


Haaland still in search of his goal in a final

There were questions but to Guardiola earlier in the season — when Erling Haaland was banging in goals every week — about whether City were too reliant on their Norwegian striker.

Well Haaland drew another blank at Wembley and yet Guardiola’s team still found a way to win. Haaland has looked short of his best for a while now and it continued against Arsenal. He hasn’t scored in a final since the 2021 German cup final when he was playing for Borussia Dortmund.

In the end it didn’t matter. O’Reilly popped up from left-back to score two opportunistic headers in the space of four second half minutes and it was enough to win.

It earned O’Reilly the man-of-the-match award, but it could have quite easily gone to Cherki. The Frenchman was involved in both goals as he buzzed around Arsenal’s box. In a tight game decided by fine margins, he was one of the few players who looked like he had enough space to create genuine chances.

He’s having an impressive first season at City following his summer move from Lyon and he’s capped it with at least one trophy. There’s far more to come from a young player with a very high ceiling. — Dawson



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