A future where all homes and vehicles in the U.S. are fully electrified could overwhelm power supply and risk outages unless key upgrades are made, says a new study conducted by Purdue University engineers. But a few strategies could cut two-thirds of the potential costs of reinforcing the nation’s distribution grid to handle this demand.

Electrifying would mean switching a home’s heating system from a boiler to a heat pump and transitioning from gas- or diesel-fueled vehicles to electric vehicles.

“If we install a whole bunch of new electric heating systems for homes and use more electric vehicles and electric water heaters, then we’re going to increase electricity demand a lot. And that’s basically going to require putting in thicker wires, bigger transformers and other infrastructure into the power grid,” said Kevin Kircher, a Purdue assistant professor of mechanical engineering and faculty member in the university’s Ray W. Herrick Laboratories. “And if that happens, utilities will pass the cost of those upgrades to us, the customers.”

The study, published in Cell Reports Sustainability on Sept. 16, found that reinforcing the U.S. distribution grid, which provides power to residential areas, could cost $350–$790 billion—about $2,000–$6,400 total per household between now and 2050. Much of this cost would be due to increased electric space heating, with the coldest regions of the U.S. experiencing electricity demand peaks up to five times higher than today’s peaks.

But taking measures such as installing better insulation and air sealing, improving equipment efficiency, and coordinating the operation of the home’s electric devices could mitigate the costs of upgrading the grid.

An example of boosting the efficiency of a home’s electrical equipment would be using ground-source heat pumps instead of air-source heat pumps, because the constant ground temperature reduces the energy needed to heat and cool homes. Coordinating the home’s electrical device operation could mean adjusting when the home’s electric vehicle charges so that it doesn’t happen at the same time as the heat pump is in use.

“If electric vehicles could communicate with the heating, ventilation and air conditioning units that we install in the house, and if they can coordinate when they have to charge or when they have to heat or precool the homes, this strategy could contribute to a 40% decrease in grid reinforcement costs,” said Priyadarshan, a Ph.D. student in Purdue’s School of Mechanical Engineering and the first author of this paper.

“Let’s say there’s a cold snap coming. The heat pump could preheat the house, and the home’s electric vehicles could be charged at a different time to reduce strain on the grid.”

The study focused on each county of the Lower 48 U.S. states. The researchers modeled the grid impacts of fully electrifying homes and vehicles using public surveys of home electricity usage and electric vehicle travel where available for each county, specifications from equipment manufacturers, building code guidelines, and weather data. The team also calibrated the home data against a fully electrified test house in West Lafayette called the DC Nanogrid House.

After analyzing the impact of full electrification on the distribution grid, the researchers adjusted the parameters of their model to include the home weatherization and equipment efficiency strategies they were proposing to cut grid upgrade costs. For their strategy to coordinate electric device operation, they used an optimization algorithm to take into consideration heating, electricity demand and electric vehicle usage and devise an optimal solution for when to charge the vehicles and how hard to run the heat pumps.

Other studies have investigated the future of increased home and vehicle electrification in the U.S. but not on the scale of residential areas by county nationwide.

“On the one hand, it’s kind of scary—if we electrify everything, we might have a crazy expensive future. But on the other hand, if we electrify in a smart way, then we don’t have nearly as many of those problems,” Kircher said.

Europe accounts for about 25% of global electric vehicle sales. Despite the high demand, only around 6.8% of the energy required for cell production is currently supplied in Europe. Most of the energy is imported in the form of materials and battery cells.

A team led by Prof Simon Lux (University of Münster and Fraunhofer Research Institution for Battery Cell Production) has now analyzed the future energy requirements associated with the European Union’s (EU) goal of strengthening European battery supply chains. The study is published in the journal Energy & Environmental Science.

In order to achieve self-sufficiency by 2050, the researchers predict the EU will have to meet an annual increase in energy demand for local battery cell production from the current level of around 3.5 terawatt hours (TWh) per year to 250 TWh annually. This would only be possible if a well-developed recycling infrastructure were in place by then.

In addition, Europe would need 200 to 250 TWh to charge electric vehicles and compensate for efficiency losses when discharging batteries for electric vehicles and stationary storage systems. Nevertheless, the increasing energy demand for lithium- and sodium-ion batteries would be offset by 90 TWh of upstream fossil fuel energy.

“Strengthening local battery supply chains is crucial to reducing energy dependence,” says Lux. “However, it also requires the supply of significant amounts of energy in Europe.” Battery-based electricity demand is growing disproportionately compared to total electricity demand, which will require major investments in renewable electricity generation and the corresponding infrastructure.

It will also be crucial for Europe to maximize battery recycling rates and recycling efficiency to reduce import dependency and future energy demand. The researchers assume that there will be significant recycling capacity in Europe (approx. 800 gigawatt hours of battery capacity are expected to be recycled annually from 2050 onwards). This could reduce the energy required for battery production in Europe by 33 to 46%.

However, the current recycling infrastructure is still in its early stages of development. The researchers therefore conclude that European policymakers need to implement effective regulations that enable companies to develop viable and sustainable recycling capabilities.

The study is based on a life-cycle assessment analysis utilizing data from recent research studies and the ecoinvent database. In addition, the research team performed the energy demand analysis using a simulation model, developed by the Institute of Business Administration at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy at the University of Münster, which represents a simplified battery circular economy.

When you are done with the burner phone, make sure that you get rid of it in a thoughtful way as well. “At the end of the intended use, consider steps to eliminate information, remove SIM cards and/or memory cards, making sure not to leave a potential vulnerability after you,” says Access Now’s Al-Maskati.

Using an Alternative Phone

Depending on your risk model, it may not be appropriate or even the most practical to use a true burner phone. Instead, you may want to consider using an altphone to separate elements of your digital life.

“There is a lot of confusion, because ‘burner phone’ is a generic term,” says Matt Mitchell, CEO of the risk mitigation firm Safety Sync Group. “I usually try to group tactics and advice based on goals. It begins with why a normal phone isn’t good for privacy and then a dial on how private you’re trying to get. The privacy goals are the dial—from safer hygiene, to more secure operating systems, to straight-up locked-down phones.”

For many people, an altphone or “lighter” burner phone is likely to be a smartphone that allows a wide range of communications and access to privacy-enhancing tools such as encrypted messaging apps like Signal, VPNs, online tracker blockers, and more. This way you can tune your personal privacy dial to keep certain web browsing, software use, media consumption, or communication more private and anonymous than it would be on your normal devices.

“What are you trying to protect? If you’re just trying to obscure your phone number from somebody, you can do that in a much lighter way” than using a heavily anonymized device, the ACLU’s Williams says. “But if you’re really trying to go off grid, you have to do all this other stuff.

An altphone may be a smartphone that you separate as much as possible from your identity, perhaps a phone that you only use for attending protests. Or it could be an old phone you repurpose and use for things like traveling. How you set the privacy dial depends on the use case.

“A repurposed phone can be used for an extended period of time,” Cyberlixir’s Vo says. “A repurposed phone already has your traces, even with factory reset. There might be a sales receipt, CCTV log, or someone taking a picture of you talking on the phone. So they are useful for compartmentalizing activities. Work versus personal phone is the most obvious example. Or one for international travel.” Reused devices also retain certain identifiers such as IMEI numbers over time.

Using a smartphone as a second device does have its own considerations. When it comes to mainstream devices, “smartphones do a terrible job at protecting people’s privacy and securing their communications,” says Access Now’s Al-Maskati. “If people obtain a smartphone to use as a burner, it’s best to reset to factory settings, never connect any real accounts (AppleID, Google, social media), and do not sync any other information, as well as disabling unnecessary location and other services.”

You should only use your altphone for its intended purpose—if it’s a phone you want to take to protests, for example, it shouldn’t be used for texting friends or online shopping. As with a true burner phone, you should avoid using it in the same location that you use other devices—in other words, avoid connecting to the same Wi-Fi networks. Don’t turn your altphone on alongside your day-to-day devices and, relatedly, don’t carry them all together unless your altphone is in a Faraday bag. Only provide contact information for the altphone to those who need it.

Whether you’re using a burner phone or an altphone, though, the bottom line is that there are no guarantees or perfect solutions. And if there is absolutely no room for error, go analogue and don’t bring or involve a phone in whatever you’re doing.