The two Pakistani squash players, Ashab Irfan and Noor Zaman, secured a place in the semifinal after beating the Indian Veer Chotrani and Colombian Ronald Palomino, respectively.

Pakistan’s Ashab Irfan delivered one of the standout performances of the Nash Cup Squash tournament on Friday, pulling off a dramatic comeback to knock out India’s Veer Chotrani and secure a place in the semifinals.

Ashab, seeded No. 8, looked in trouble early as Chotrani, the No. 4 seed, took control of the match with a 9-11, 4-11 start. But the 21-year-old Pakistani regrouped impressively to make a comeback after going 2-sets down, using aggressive shot-making and sharp retrievals to turn the momentum in his favor. He claimed three straight games 11-8, 11-8, 11-8 to seal a 3-2 victory.

The result confirmed Ashab’s reputation as one of Pakistan’s brightest growing squash prospects.

In another match, Pakistan’s Noor Zaman also booked his place in the last four with a 3-1 win over Colombia’s Ronald Palomino. The fifth seed started strongly with an 11-4 opening game, dropped the second 10-12, but quickly regained control to close out the match 11-7, 11-7 in 52 minutes.

With both Ashab Irfan and Noor Zaman advancing, Pakistan will have two representatives in the semifinals of the $31,250 tournament, a PSA World Series event.

We’re down to the final days of the 2025 regular season and in for some exciting baseball, as there are still quite a number of teams that have something to play for — including a few who are fighting tooth and nail for their postseason lives.

The Tigers, Guardians, Mets, Reds and Diamondbacks fall into that category — and all moved significantly in our final power rankings of the season. After holding a 12½-game lead over Cleveland as recently as Aug. 25, Detroit is now a game behind the Guardians, who sit atop the AL Central after beating the Tigers Tuesday and Wednesday following what might be one of the greatest comebacks/collapses of all time over the final month of the season.

There’s a similar sentiment around the Mets, who hold a slight one-game lead over Cincinnati and Arizona for the final wild-card spot as a late losing skid highlighted their second-half woes and put their playoff hopes on the line.

Which clubs will get to keep playing into October? And which will watch their playoff aspirations come to an end?

Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 25 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings

Record: 96-63
Previous ranking: 1

Getting healthy on the mound is the top priority for the Brewers heading into the postseason as Jose Quintana and Brandon Woodruff are the latest pitchers to go down. With Trevor Megill, Logan Henderson and DL Hall also on the mend, it’s a good thing the Brewers have a bye and go straight to the division series. That extra time could be a difference-maker. As it stands now, it’s anyone’s guess what the roster will look like when Milwaukee hosts its first playoff game on Oct. 4, but it’s safe to say the Brewers will get at least a few of the above arms back for playoff baseball. They’ll be needed. — Rogers

Record: 93-65
Previous ranking: 2

Losing Zack Wheeler for the season was a cruel gut punch, but the Phillies’ rotation remains stout with Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo leading the charge. On the position player side, Alec Bohm returned from the injured list Sunday and Trea Turner could be activated this weekend. With Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper anchoring the lineup, and closer Jhoan Duran nailing down the ninth inning, the Phillies are a real World Series contender even without Wheeler. — Castillo

Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 4

Shohei Ohtani reached unchartered territory in his 14th and final regular-season start Tuesday, pitching six innings while keeping the Diamondbacks scoreless. Over his past four starts, Ohtani has given up only one run in 19⅔ innings, scattering 10 hits, issuing four walks and striking out a whopping 27 batters. He is one of several Dodgers starters pitching really well heading into the playoffs. The bullpen? That’s a completely different story. After Ohtani departed Tuesday, three relievers combined to give up five runs. The Dodgers wound up losing. They’re clearly willing to stretch Ohtani a little longer, but he can’t pitch all nine innings. — Gonzalez

Record: 90-68
Previous ranking: 3

The Blue Jays were the first AL team to clinch a playoff spot, but they have the misfortune of being in the same division as the team with the second-best record in the AL. As a result, winning their first division title in a decade requires a strong finish against the Red Sox and Rays to fend off the Yankees with the Jays playing without Bo Bichette (knee) and Chris Bassitt (back). Toronto activated outfielder Anthony Santander from the IL on Tuesday for the final push, designating former AL Cy Young Award finalist Alek Manoah for assignment. The pressure is on to avoid the wild-card round. — Castillo

Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 8

The Mariners are becoming a fashionable pick for October. They’re hot and could be starting to peak on the mound, where they’ve actually underachieved this season. Not lately though. The pitching staff was fantastic during a road sweep of the Astros as George Kirby and Bryan Woo are rounding into form — that is until Woo suffered a pectoral injury. The team says he could still pitch in October as treatment continues.

Regardless, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, who has given up only one run in his last 12 innings, have also been good. Seattle has plenty of options on the mound, and that includes in the bullpen, where Andres Munoz has been stellar. The Mariners feature the AL home run king in Cal Raleigh, but it’s their pitching staff that will lead them in the postseason. — Rogers

Record: 90-68
Previous ranking: 7

The Yankees clinched their postseason spot Monday. Whether they catch Toronto for the AL East title — and subsequently earn a bye to the NLDS — or settle for a wild-card spot, one question remains: Who would start a Game 3 after Max Fried and Carlos Rodon? The candidates are Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year; Cam Schlittler, who has impressed as a rookie this season; and Will Warren, who has made 32 starts. Gil and Schlittler are the favorites. — Castillo

Record: 89-69
Previous ranking: 5

A perfect storm has led to the Cubs’ longest losing skid of the season — coming right after a sweep of Pittsburgh clinched a playoff berth. Their subsequent opponents, the Reds and Mets, are playing desperate baseball in an attempt to get into the postseason themselves, leading to Cincinnati sweeping a four-game series against Chicago and New York taking the first of a three-game series.

The big concern for next week is Cade Horton. He left Tuesday’s start against the Mets because of some back/rib soreness after being ill all weekend. If it’s his last time on the mound until the postseason — assuming he’s healthy — he’ll have thrown a total of 29 pitches in two weeks, not exactly the sharpest way to enter the postseason. Offensively, the Cubs came out of their slumber against New York, putting up seven runs Tuesday, as they try to build momentum toward October. — Rogers

Record: 87-72
Previous ranking: 9

The Padres celebrated a return to the postseason after defeating the Brewers on Monday. They then beat the Brewers again Tuesday and suddenly began eyeing the NL West title once more. By that point, they trailed the Dodgers by only 1½ games. L.A. holds the tiebreaker and will also finish the season in Seattle. The Padres will finish at home against the Diamondbacks. For the Padres, winning the division would mean hosting the wild-card round at Petco Park, where they’re 49-29 this season (compared to just 38-43 on the road). It’s a big deal. — Gonzalez

Record: 87-71
Previous ranking: 10

Boston’s top three starting pitchers — Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito — give the team a real chance in a three-game wild-card series against anybody, but they need to get there first. For that to happen, the offense needs to find some life without Roman Anthony. The lineup has struggled since Anthony landed on the IL on Sept. 3 because of an oblique strain, averaging 4.7 runs in 17 games without him, but has started to pick up again more recently. The Red Sox are 9-8 in that span. — Castillo

Record: 86-72
Previous ranking: 14

The Guardians’ surge feels like a movie. On Sept. 4, they were 11 games out in the AL Central. Since then, they’ve won 17 of 19 games, the last two against the division-rival Tigers, defeating Tarik Skubal to tie them on Tuesday and cruising behind Tanner Bibee to victory on Wednesday to jump into first place for the first time since April 22. Longtime Cleveland ace Shane Bieber now pitches in Toronto while lights-out closer Emmanuel Clase is on paid leave amid a gambling probe, and yet the Guardians’ pitching staff holds a major league-best 1.58 ERA since Sept. 5. The Mariners are the only other team that even holds an ERA under 3.00. — Gonzalez

Record: 85-73
Previous ranking: 6

You probably know the numbers by now, but we might as well hash them: The Tigers held a 14-game lead in the AL Central on July 8, an 11½-game lead on Aug. 23 and a 9½-game lead on Sept. 10. At the end of last week, they still led the Guardians by a very comfortable 6½ games. Then, on Tuesday night, the Tigers fell to a surging Cleveland team despite having Tarik Skubal on the mound and found themselves not leading the division for the first time since April. It was their seventh loss in a row. Their eighth followed roughly 24 hours later. An unbelievable collapse, to say the least. — Gonzalez

Record: 84-74
Previous ranking: 11

The last week has not been kind to the Astros, especially at the plate, where they ranked near the bottom of the majors in OPS. It included three games at home against Seattle — all losses — in which they scored seven total runs. Add just a single tally in their series opener loss against the A’s on Tuesday and you can see why Houston is in danger of losing the division or even a postseason berth. The loss — again — of Yordan Alvarez obviously hurts. And perhaps the return of Isaac Paredes will give the Astros a boost, though it hasn’t yet. They need a hot finish from players such as Carlos Correa and Jeremy Pena to extend their playoff streak to nine years. — Rogers

Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 17

A four-game sweep of the Cubs over the weekend vaulted the Reds into the playoff picture, but they need to finish the job to make their first postseason appearance since 2020 and first in a full season since 2013. They also hold the tiebreaker with the Mets, so all Cincinnati has to do is match New York in the standings. It has become clear that the starting staff is the driving force behind anything good that happens in Cincinnati. Hunter Greene has been fantastic, as has Andrew Abbott. But despite their surge, the Reds remain just an average team at the plate, ranking in the bottom third in key offensive categories over the past couple of weeks. Some timely home runs have helped their cause. — Rogers

Record: 81-77
Previous ranking: 13

The Mets had the best record in baseball on June 13. Since then, they’ve had one of the worst — bad enough to enter the final week of the season on the edge of a historic collapse. Their fate could ultimately come down to the three rookie right-handers in their starting rotation. The Mets didn’t expect to need Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat this season, but injuries and ineffectiveness forced the hand of president of baseball operations David Stearns. Now, the Mets are counting on them this week to help secure a spot in October. — Castillo

Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 15

The wild, nausea-inducing roller-coaster ride that is this 2025 Diamondbacks season continues. Since the start of August alone, the team has navigated three losing streaks of three or more games but also eight winning streaks of three or more games. Arizona sealed its latest one Tuesday night, when it overcame a four-run deficit against the division-rival Dodgers and remained just one game back of the Mets for the final wild-card spot. That the D-backs are even at this point, in a year when they traded two of their best hitters and one of their best starters at the trade deadline, is wild. — Gonzalez

Record: 80-78
Previous ranking: 12

A late win streak was followed by a later losing skid, eliminating the 2023 champs from the postseason for a second consecutive season. On the docket for Rangers brass is the future of manager Bruce Bochy and how to get more out of their inconsistent offense. That has now been a two-year question, though recent injuries to Marcus Semien and Corey Seager didn’t help. Neither was having a fantastic year anyway. As they age, the team needs new leaders at the plate. Wyatt Langford has looked the part at times. At 23 years old, he should be the next Rangers star. After an offensive evaluation is completed, president of baseball operations Chris Young’s winter goal will undoubtedly be to improve their run scoring. — Rogers

Record: 78-81
Previous ranking: 16

The Giants blew a five-run lead against St. Louis on Tuesday and were mathematically eliminated from postseason contention by the end of it. It was only 11 days prior that they stood a half-game behind the Mets for the final NL wild-card spot. San Francisco then lost nine of 11 games to miss out on the playoffs for a fourth straight year — despite being 19-12 by the end of April and acquiring Rafael Devers in the middle of June. “This year is probably the most frustrating,” Giants ace Logan Webb told reporters. “No offense to the teams we’ve had before, but this is the most talented team I’ve been on.” — Gonzalez

Record: 79-79
Previous ranking: 18

The Royals won their third consecutive game on Sept. 6 and found themselves only one game back of the final wild-card spot. They needed a hot stretch to give themselves a chance over the final couple of weeks. Instead, they lost six of their next seven, falling seven games back and setting themselves up for what occurred Tuesday: being mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, moments before a series opener against the Angels. The Royals still have a chance at a second consecutive winning record, but they entered 2025 with far bigger expectations than that following their 2024 postseason run. — Gonzalez

Record: 77-81
Previous ranking: 19

The Rays’ sale to a group led by Jacksonville real estate developer Patrick Zalupski reached another checkpoint Monday when MLB’s owners unanimously approved the transaction. Atop the new ownership group’s to-do list will be securing an agreement for a new ballpark. That will be the question hovering over the Rays this offseason — assuming the sale will be finalized — before they move back into Tropicana Field for 2026. — Castillo

Record: 78-81
Previous ranking: 20

Longtime executive John Mozeliak is set to say goodbye after this weekend, handing the keys over to new Cardinals decision-maker Chaim Bloom. His first order of business could be deciding the fate of manager Oliver Marmol, who deserves some credit for holding the team together during a stated transition year. Next, Bloom needs to rebuild the pitching staff beyond Sonny Gray, who is signed for one more season. Youngsters Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy have received valuable growth time this year while the team will say goodbye to soon-to-be free agent Miles Mikolas. The bullpen also needs some work. Bloom has plenty on his plate in his first offseason in charge. — Rogers

Record: 75-84
Previous ranking: 23

The 2025 season was a nightmare littered with injuries and underperformance for the Braves, a club that entered the year with World Series expectations. While most major players on the roster are under team control through 2026, one prominent figure is considering moving on: manager Brian Snitker. The 69-year-old skipper, whose contract expires after this season, has said he is considering retiring. If he does, Snitker’s 10-season run would conclude with seven postseason appearances and a World Series title in 2021. — Castillo

Record: 77-81
Previous ranking: 24

The Marlins entered Game No. 158 on Wednesday still mathematically in postseason contention. The chances are remote, but staying alive this late is a win for an organization attempting to produce a consistent contender for the first time in franchise history. Never have the Marlins, despite two World Series titles in their 33-year history, reached the playoffs in consecutive seasons. They’re slowly stacking the building blocks. And, considering they moved Sandy Alcantara‘s start back to face the Mets this weekend, Miami is thirsting to play spoiler. — Castillo

Record: 75-83
Previous ranking: 21

All in all, it’s going to be a successful year for the A’s, who blew past their preseason over/under win total for the season this week. They boast the likely Rookie of the Year in Nick Kurtz and saw positive seasons from several offensive players not named Brent Rooker or Lawrence Butler, with the latter having a quiet season at the plate. Left fielder Tyler Soderstrom and catcher Shea Langeliers count as those success stories.

On the other hand, the pitching staff will finish in the bottom five of the majors in ERA — the hitter-friendly park in Sacramento didn’t help. Perhaps with a year under their belt there, the front office will have a better understanding of what kinds of arms might be successful until the team moves to Las Vegas. That should be their sole focus this winter. — Rogers

Record: 74-84
Previous ranking: 22

Adley Rutschman‘s 2025 season is atop the list of the disappointments in a lost season for the Orioles. The two-time All-Star catcher continued his regression from last year and landed on the IL for two long stints because of oblique strains on each side. Baltimore activated him Monday for the season’s final six games. It could be his final week in an Orioles uniform; with Samuel Basallo‘s emergence — and contract extension — people around baseball wonder if Baltimore will look to trade Rutschman this offseason. — Castillo

Record: 69-89
Previous ranking: 27

Bubba Chandler is getting his feet wet during garbage time for the Pirates, and that could pay dividends for them next season. Add the return of Jared Jones early next year and Pittsburgh once again looks formidable on the mound. But what will general manager Ben Cherington do to help his offense? It’s a yearly question for the Pirates, as they are set to finish last in run scoring after ranking 24th the previous season. They’re going in the wrong direction. Their third baseman are last in OPS and their catchers aren’t much better. Improvements across the board are needed. — Rogers

Record: 71-87
Previous ranking: 26

The Angels again need to find some productive pitchers this offseason, as they rank near the bottom of the majors in ERA this season. It seems to be a yearly thing, as they ranked 26th in that category in 2024 and 23rd in 2023. Their starting staff has mostly been the culprit, but change is in the air as Kyle Hendricks is almost assuredly retiring while Tyler Anderson is set to become a free agent. One bright spot has been closer Kenley Jansen, who is 28-of-29 in save opportunities. But if a 37-year-old closer on a team out of contention is your lone bright spot, you probably have bigger problems. That’s the case for the Angels heading into the winter. — Rogers

Record: 68-90
Previous ranking: 25

It was only two years ago that the Twins ended a prolonged postseason winless drought and advanced past the wild-card round in a thrilling 2023 season. Now, it seems like two decades ago. The 2025 season was a miserable one for the Twins’ faithful, punctuated by a trade-deadline selloff that felt worse only a couple weeks later when the Pohlad family announced it would maintain ownership of the franchise, angering a fan base that clamored for a replacement who would spend more money. Byron Buxton had a really nice year and Joe Ryan was not traded. Outside of that, there isn’t much to cling to in Minneapolis these days. — Gonzalez

Record: 58-100
Previous ranking: 28

The bar for progress was obviously low after the White Sox set the modern-day record for losses last year, but the franchise nonetheless took some steps forward this season. They played a more competitive brand of baseball, particularly after the All-Star break. Prospects such as Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero, Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth showed encouraging signs. Journeymen pitchers such as Shane Smith, Mike Vasil and Jordan Leasure found success. They still have a long way to go, but the White Sox are in a better position than they were at this time last year. That’s … something, at least. — Gonzalez

Record: 65-94
Previous ranking: 29

Pressing questions, from the top down, face the Nationals this offseason after they took a substantial step back in 2025. One was answered this week when the organization decided to hire Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Tobino to run its baseball operations department as Mike Rizzo’s replacement.

Next up: naming a manager. Looming in the backdrop is a more critical matter: Will ownership decide to sell again? If not, will it invest the necessary resources — not just in free agency but in other departments — to build another winner? And then there’s also the question about the future of their local television deal. The Nationals have some young talent — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams have all been All-Stars — but this will effectively be a soft reset in Washington. — Castillo

Record: 43-115
Previous ranking: 30

Only six teams have ever finished a season with a run differential below minus-400, and all of them played before the 21st century. The Rockies are currently on pace to join them. They’ve won only four of 21 games in September and currently sport a run differential of minus-412. The modern-day record is minus-345, set by the 1932 Boston Red Sox. And though the Rockies won’t lose as many games as last year’s White Sox, they’ll probably be outscored by 100-plus more runs than Chicago was. How this gets fixed is anybody’s guess. — Gonzalez

Let’s do a quick blind comparison of two Premier League teams from this current season.

Team A still hasn’t lost a game. In fact, it hasn’t earned a draw. In fact, it hasn’t even trailed in a game. We’re just five matches into the season, and it already has a five-point lead atop the table. That’s tied with one other side for the biggest lead through five games in the history of the Premier League. And the other team to do it? It won the title by 18 points.

Meanwhile, Team B has scored 11 goals and conceded five. That gives it a plus-six goal differential, the third-best mark in the league. At least 50 other teams in Premier League history have outscored their opponents by more goals through five matches, and the same holds true for goals scored and goals conceded. It’s good … but it’s not great. Last season, Tottenham had a better goal differential than this team through five matches, and they finished one place clear of the relegation zone.

So, which team would you rather be?

It’s a trick question, of course: Team A and Team B are the same team.

Liverpool are undefeated this season, but they’ve still only won one match by more than a goal. And even in that one, the season-opener against Bournemouth, they didn’t take the lead for good until the 88th minute.

Liverpool beat Newcastle on the road thanks to a goal in the 100th minute from 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha. They took down Arsenal with an 83rd-minute free kick by Dominik Szoboszlai. They needed a 95th-minute penalty from Mohamed Salah to beat Burnley. Virgil van Dijk headed in the winner in the 92nd minute of their Champions League opener against Atletico Madrid. And Hugo Ekitike‘s 85th-minute tap-in-turned-red-card secured a 2-1 win against Southampton in the Carabao Cup.

Liverpool have somehow been even better and much worse than anyone would’ve predicted at the start of the season. So, let’s ask the same question that rival fans seem to be screaming, week after week: They can’t keep this up … right?

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Why do Liverpool score so many late goals?

Whenever a team continues to win in such an improbable fashion, it is attributed to a club’s superior, never-say-die mentality. That was the case with Manchester United under Sir Alex Ferguson. It’s what happens with Real Madrid in the Champions League every year. And it frequently felt true with Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp — and now it seems true under Arne Slot, too.

The stats seem to back that up. Since the Premier League was created in the early 90s, Liverpool have won 43 games with a goal in the 90th minute or later — a whopping 13 more than any other side.

So, Liverpool are better at winning games late than everyone else — or are they? At least, I’m not sure that’s what that statistic is telling us. There’s a more economic explanation for it.

Liverpool have the third-most points of any club in the Premier League era. On the whole, Arsenal and Manchester United have been better than Liverpool since 1993, so those two clubs haven’t had to win as many late games. Then, when Manchester City and Chelsea entered the picture with their wealthy new owners in the 2000s, they typically had better and more expensive squads than Liverpool. Before that, they weren’t anywhere near as competitive as Liverpool.

So, Liverpool sit in that sweet spot where they won lots of games and therefore, they won lots of late games. But they also weren’t as talented as the other teams that won lots of games, so a higher proportion of their wins came from late goals.

There’s definitely an Anfield effect here — opposing players tend to agree that it’s the hardest place in England to play. So, if you combine that with the fact that, for most of the Premier League era, Liverpool have been competing with richer and better teams, then it makes sense that they’ve needed to use every minute of every game to keep up.

Now, that isn’t quite as true anymore. They spent a net of $309 million on transfer fees this past summer. They made $773m in revenue in 2023-24, and some estimates rank them as the fourth-most valuable club in the world after Manchester United, Real Madrid, and Barcelona. Per FBref, they have the sixth-highest wage bill in the world.

So what’s the explanation for all of the late winners this season?

Liverpool have been the best team in the league when the score is tied in the second half of matches. They’ve scored four goals and conceded zero — both best or tied-for-best marks in the Premier League. They’ve also attempted 28 shots (nine more than anyone else) and conceded only five. The 23-shot margin is by far the largest in the league; no one else is above 10. Part of the reason they’ve scored so many late winners is that they’ve heavily tilted the field whenever they’ve needed a late winner.

Here’s how it looks for the whole league when we compare xG (expected goals) created and xG conceded in the second half when the score is tied:

Liverpool have created 2.49 xG and conceded just 0.11 at this game-state. The defense allows almost nothing, while the attack creates a ton. That’s great, but it still doesn’t answer the bigger, more important question.

Why do Liverpool need all of these late comebacks?

There are two problems with all of these late-game, tied-score stats: (1) we’re already cutting a small sample of five matches into an even smaller one, and (2) not everyone has played the same number of minutes with the score tied in the second half. If you’re one of the best teams in the world, ideally, you’re not spending too much time there.

Liverpool have needed so many late winners mainly because they’ve been quite poor whenever they’ve taken the lead. They’ve conceded 25 shots and attempted 25 when they’ve been up by at least a goal.

Now, it’s normal for teams not to register as many attempts once they’re leading, but good teams usually make up for that by creating higher-quality attempts than normal when they do attack because their opponent has to push the action and leave space behind the defense. Liverpool, though, haven’t exploited that.

Liverpool’s xG created and conceded is almost exactly even when they’re winning, and it has led to four goals being scored and five being conceded.

We’re still too early into the season to be too confident about any conclusions, but this sure looks like the profile of a team that has spent a ton of money on attack-first players and has spent most of the season playing with only two true midfielders, neither of whom is defensive-minded.

When opponents aren’t incentivized to attack against Liverpool — when they’re tied and we’re in the second half, a draw is in sight — then the imbalance doesn’t matter. Liverpool keep the ball and their attackers attack, and it all works. But once the other team has to attack, Liverpool can’t control the game anymore. They had 55% of the final-third possession when winning last season; this year, it’s down to 46%.

That’s not too surprising — it might even be by design — but what is surprising is that a team with Florian Wirtz and Mohamed Salah and Dominik Szoboszlai and Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak still hasn’t made teams really pay on the counter-attack. Liverpool’s xG per shot when they’re leading is 0.10 — or slightly below the league average for teams that are ahead. Last season, it was up at 0.13.

So what does it all mean?

Though Liverpool’s matches have been strangely partitioned this season, it’s better to look at everything together, and history tells us as much. From the previous 10 Premier League seasons, I looked at a number of statistics from Stats Perform for the first five matches to see what best correlated with points won over the final 33 games of the season. Looking at only certain game states made the predictions worse, as did removing what you might think would be the randomness of penalties.

The stat that best correlated with rest-of-season stats was “adjusted goal differential” — the blend of 70% of Stats Perform’s expected goals and 30% actual goals that I’ve referenced countless times before. It was more accurate than just goals, just expected goals, and just points. The correlation (also known as “r-squared”) was 0.44, which means that 44% of the variation between the points every team has won over the final 33 games over the past 10 seasons can be explained by each team’s adjusted goal difference through the first five games.

Here’s how that looks:

And here’s how things look across the league so far this season, by adjusted goal differential:

Ironically, this is exactly what happened the last time Liverpool won the league in 2019-20. The following season, their adjusted goal differential through the first five games was plus-0.78, the same number they’ve got now. They then won 59 more points over the rest of the season and finished in third.

That team, though, soon lost Virgil van Dijk for the season, followed by their second- and third-choice center backs, Joel Matip and Joe Gomez, respectively. This team has still had its club-record signing, Alexander Isak, on the field for only 24 total Premier League minutes. And though the one match he started also required a last-second winner, at home against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, it was also the one game where Liverpool dominated after they led. With Liverpool leading, the shot count was close, 12 to 9 in favor of the hosts, but Liverpool created 1.32 expected goals to Atletico’s 0.38.

As it stands, though, Arsenal have played about as well as Liverpool did last season, while Liverpool have played about as well as Arsenal did. Their current adjusted goal differentials are nearly the same as the other team’s full-season marks from last year. Over the past 10 seasons, the best a team has done while playing at Liverpool’s current level — somewhere between a 0.5 and 0.8 adjusted goal differential — was Leicester’s 81 points in their 5,000-to-1 championship season. While the worst a team with a plus-1-or-better adjusted goal differential has done was Liverpool’s 78 points in 2017-18.

Now, it could happen, but the overwhelmingly likely outcome of Liverpool and Arsenal maintaining their current performance levels is that Arsenal wins the league. Given how Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, and Martin Odegaard have already missed significant time and how they’ve already played Liverpool and Manchester City, it seems unlikely that Arsenal decline too much from here on out. So, hang on to their current lead, Liverpool will have to improve; they’ll need to stop falling apart once they take a lead, and they’ll need to start winning some matches before the 85th minute.

But while all those last-second winners can’t be relied upon for the rest of the season, they did happen. Dominik Szoboszlai briefly harnessed the power of gravity against Arsenal, in a way no Arsenal player did against Liverpool. Szoboszlai, too, had the presence of mind to dummy a pass and create a massive opening for Rio Ngumoha to slot home the winner against Newcastle. And because Liverpool have executed in so many of these high-leverage moments already, they’ve built a sizable cushion.

They need to be better from now through the end of the season if they want to win the title, but they don’t actually need to be better than Arsenal. They just need to be four points worse.