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A surprising share of homeowners have high mortgage rates. Here’s the breakdown
An aerial view of homes in San Francisco, Aug. 27, 2025.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
The share of U.S. homeowners with high rates on their mortgages has jumped sharply in just the last few years.
That’s having a marked impact on the refinance market and a somewhat more muted impact on home sales. Rates have been front and center in the debate over how to improve home affordability — and for good reason.
In 2022, after mortgage interest rates hit more than a dozen record lows, sparking a refinance bonanza, barely 10% of homeowners had 30-year fixed mortgages with rates above 5%. Just four years later, that share has jumped to over 30%, according to ICE Mortgage Technology. About 20% of borrowers have mortgages with a rate over 6%.
Home sales have been less than robust over the last few years, with the National Association of Realtors reporting a historically low 4.06 million sales last year, basically unchanged from 2024. This, after hitting a 15-year high of 6.12 million home sales in 2022.
More recent sales, combined with some cash-out refinancing, pushed the share of higher-interest-rate borrowers up.
There has been a major focus by the Trump administration to lower mortgage rates as a way to boost home affordability.
The president recently announced a plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy more than $200 billion in mortgage-backed bonds. It is still a subject of debate as to how much lower that would push mortgage rates once the purchase is made, but just the announcement alone caused rates to drop a bit.
Industry experts say the actual purchases could shave perhaps about an eighth of a percentage point off the current 30-year rate, putting it right around 6%. Last year at this time, the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was just over 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
If the average on the 30-year fixed moved to 6%, 5.5 million current homeowners would be able to benefit from a refinance, according to ICE Mortgage Technology. Those homeowners could save at least 75 basis points on their rate, which makes the fees involved financially worthwhile, it said.
If rates dropped to 5.88%, that number grows to 6.5 million homeowners.
“The most popular interest rate that’s been used to buy a home over the last 3.5 years is between 6.875% and 6.99%, right? Nobody wanted to tell their neighbors they used a 7% interest rate to buy a home, so everybody bought down into this high 6% range,” said Andy Walden, ICE Mortgage Technology’s head of mortgage and housing market research.
“Coincidentally, those 15-basis-point-spread moves from this $200 billion in MBS purchase is moving rates from what would have been six and a quarter right now down to six and an eighth. And so it’s providing meaningfully more refinance incentive than would otherwise be out there, and it’s having an oversized impact on the market,” he said.
Applications to refinance a home loan are now about 120% higher than they were one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
As for home sales, the last four years were characterized by the so-called rate “lock-in” effect, meaning potential sellers didn’t want to give up their historically low rates. They therefore put off moves that they might otherwise have wanted to make.
Entering 2025, there were roughly 39 million homeowners with an interest rate below 5% and roughly 12 million with an interest rate below 3%, according to Walden.
“If you look at how those borrowers behaved last year, only about 6% of those folks gave up those low rates, either through a refinance to pull equity out of their home or through the sale of their home. Close to 95% of homeowners held on to those rates tight,” he said.
As for prospective homebuyers, a 15-basis-point drop on the 30-year fixed rate would save only about $35 a month on the mortgage payment for the average-priced home. Alternately, they could keep the rate and buy 1.5% more home.
“Certainly a move in the right direction, but not a massive movement for those homebuyers,” said Walden.
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A United Airlines plane approaches the runway at Denver International Airport on March 23, 2026.
Al Drago | Getty Images
United Airlines flight attendants approved a new five-year labor contract with 31% average raises to base pay by August and other improvements, marking the last of the major carriers with unionized flight crews to reach a deal post-Covid.
The labor deal would give United’s roughly 30,000 flight attendants their first raises in close to six years. The company and the flight attendants’ union reached a preliminary deal in March. Crews had rejected a contract last year.
The union said the contract won 82% approval from the flight attendants, with close to 90% of them voting.
“The contract will immediately change the lives of United Flight Attendants, especially our thousands of new hires who have been hired since the pandemic,” said Ken Diaz, president of the United chapter of the Association of Flight Attendants.
The contract also includes boarding pay, or pay for when the aircraft’s door is open and travelers are getting on. Airlines had for years started flight attendants’ pay clock once the boarding door was closed.
The contract comes with a roughly 7% to 8% increase in compensation and $741 million in back pay, as well as quality-of-life improvements like restrictions on red-eye flights and “sit pay” during disruptions of more than 2½ hours.
Stocks struggled on Tuesday, although blue chips proved resilient, amid a triple whammy of domestic political strife, surging US inflation and a lack of progress in the Middle East.
The FTSE 100 closed down just 4.11 points at 10,265.32. The FTSE 250 ended down 341.66 points, 1.5%, at 22,466.20, and the AIM All-Share fell 11.75 points, 1.4%, at 810.66.
The pound fell to 1.3505 dollars on Tuesday afternoon from 1.3651 dollars on Monday. Against the euro, sterling was lower at 1.1517 euros from 1.1584 euros on Monday.
The yield on UK 10-year gilts traded at 5.10%, up from 5.01% the day before.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer defied calls for him to quit, despite a growing number of Labour MPs demanding that he steps aside.
“The Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered,” Sir Keir told ministers during crunch talks over his future, as no one person has stepped forward to challenge him yet.
“The country expects us to get on with governing. That is what I am doing and what we must do as a Cabinet,” he added.
More than 80 of Labour’s 403 MPs have now called for Sir Keir to quit immediately, or to set out a timetable for his resignation, including some ministers.
Banks sold off, amid reports of a possible windfall tax on the sector should there be a change at the top of the Government.
“Banks narrowly avoided a higher tax rate at the last budget, but our base case now assumes the UK banking surcharge to increase from 3% to 5%,” said the banking team at JPMorgan.
NatWest fell 3.2%, Lloyds Banking Group dipped 4.4% and Barclays declined 3.6%.
Meanwhile, the surging bond yields weighed on interest rate-sensitive housebuilders, with Barratt Redrow down 4.1% and Taylor Wimpey 2.4% lower.
Adding to the uncertain mood was another spike in the oil price as the impasse in the Middle East carried on.
Iran’s chief negotiator said on Tuesday that Washington must accept Tehran’s latest peace plan or face failure, after US President Donald Trump warned a truce was on the brink of collapse.
“Relations between Washington and Tehran appear to be more strained than at any time since the original ceasefire was announced just over a month ago,” observed David Morrison at Trade Nation, suggesting that hostilities could “resume at any time”.
Brent crude for July delivery was trading at 108.07 dollars a barrel on Tuesday, up compared with 103.70 dollars at the time of the equities close in London on Monday.
In Europe on Tuesday, the CAC 40 in Paris ended down 1.0%, and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt declined 1.6%.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 1.0% while the Nasdaq Composite was 1.7% lower.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury widened to 4.46% on Tuesday from 4.39% on Friday. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury stretched to 5.02% from 4.97%.
The impact of the Iran war was reflected in soaring US inflation figures for April.
Annual CPI inflation sped up to 3.8% in April from 3.3% in March, above FXStreet-cited expectations of a 3.7% rise.
Monthly, energy costs were up 5.6% in April after a 21.3% jump in March.
Excluding food and energy costs, core CPI was up 2.8% year-on-year in April, up from 2.6% in March and higher than an expected 2.7%.
Analysts explained that much of the upside in core inflation came from a spike in shelter costs.
TD Economics said the numbers reinforce why the Fed needs to remain “patient”.
“Even assuming a ‘more normal’ reading on shelter prices last month, core inflation would’ve still firmed relative to March. With secondary price effects from higher energy prices likely to intensify in the months ahead, we’re likely to see core measures of inflation drift a bit higher and hover around 3% through year-end,” the broker said.
While Bank of America said the latest increase means inflation is getting “very uncomfortable” for the Fed.
Following the data, Fed futures now place a 60% probability of a rate hike by March next year.
The euro traded slightly lower against the greenback, at 1.1729 dollars on Tuesday from 1.1782 dollars on Monday. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at 157.73 yen, higher than 157.01 yen.
Back in London, Vodafone fell back 7.0% after mixed full-year results with adjusted earnings short of hopes but adjusted cash flow ahead.
“In the stock market it’s often said that it’s better to travel than arrive, hence why shares in Vodafone dipped on robust-looking full-year results after a strong rally in the past 12 months,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.
Vodafone shares have risen 60% in the last 12 months.
Intertek led the risers, up 6.4%, as it said it was “reviewing” the latest takeover proposal from suitor EQT Fund Management Sarl.
Intertek has turned down three previous approaches from EQT.
On the FTSE 250, Greggs rose 8.0% after reporting higher sales in the opening weeks of 2026 and maintaining full-year expectations.
But Wickes plunged 12% after reporting mixed trading as wet weather weighed on retail demand at the start of 2026.
Gold traded lower at 4,663.87 dollars an ounce on Tuesday, from 4,733.27 dollars on Monday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Intertek, up 320.00p at 5,300.00p, British American Tobacco, up 255.00p at 4,634.00p, Compass Group, up 1.74p at 31.93p, Imperial Brands, up 104.00p at 2,832.00p and London Stock Exchange Group, up 328.00p at 9,348.00p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Vodafone Group, down 8.45p at 111.95p, 3i Group, down 116.00p at 2,400.00p, St James’s Place, down 52.50p at 1,154.50p, Lloyds Banking Group, down 4.28p at 94.06p and Marks & Spencer, down 13.60p at 308.90p.
Wednesday’s global economic calendar has eurozone industrial production and GDP data, the King’s Speech in the UK and US PPI figures.
Wednesday’s local corporate calendar has a trading statement from Spirax Group.
Contributed by Alliance News
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