Politics
Afghanistan’s water crisis goes regional

Over four decades of war, Afghanistan wielded limited control over five major river basins that flow across its borders into downstream neighbouring nations.
But as Taliban authorities swept to power and tightened their grip on the country, they have pushed for Afghanistan’s water sovereignty, launching infrastructure projects to harness precious resources in the arid territory.
Dams and canals have sparked tensions with neighbouring states, testing the Taliban government’s efforts to build strong regional ties, as they remain largely isolated on the global stage since their 2021 takeover.
At the same time, the region is facing the shared impacts of climate change intensifying water scarcity, as temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift, threatening glaciers and snowpack that feed the country’s rivers.
Here are key points about Afghanistan’s transboundary water challenges:
Central Asian states to the north
Afghanistan is emerging as a new player in often fraught negotiations on the use of the Amu Darya, one of two key rivers crucial for crops in water-stressed Central Asia, where water sharing relies on fragile accords since Soviet times.
Central Asian states have expressed concern over the Qosh Tepa mega canal project that could divert up to 21% of the Amu Darya’s total flow to irrigate 560,000 hectares of land across Afghanistan’s arid north, and further deplete the Aral Sea.

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are likely to face the biggest impact, both joined by Kazakhstan in voicing alarm, even as they deepen diplomatic ties with the Taliban authorities — officially recognised so far by only Russia.
“No matter how friendly the tone is now,” water governance expert Mohd Faizee warned, “at some point there will be consequences for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan when the canal starts operating”.
Taliban officials have denied that the project will have a major impact on the Amu Darya’s water levels and pledged it will improve food security in a country heavily dependent on climate-vulnerable agriculture and facing one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
“There is an abundance of water, especially when the Amu Darya floods and glacial meltwater flows into it” in the warmer months, said project manager Sayed Zabihullah Miri, during a visit to the canal works in Faryab province, where diggers carved into a drought-ridden plain dotted with camels and locusts.
Iran to the west
Iran is the only country with which Afghanistan has a formal water sharing treaty, agreed in 1973 over the Helmand river, which traverses Taliban heartland territory, but the accord was never fully implemented.

Longstanding tensions over the river’s resources have spiked over dams in southern Afghanistan, particularly in periods of drought, which are likely to increase as climate shocks hit the region’s water cycle.
Iran, facing pressure in its parched southeastern region, has repeatedly demanded that Afghanistan respect its rights, charging that upstream dams restrict the Helmand’s flow into a border lake.
The Taliban authorities insist there is not enough water to release more to Iran, blaming the impact of climate pressures on the whole region.
They also argue long-term poor water management has meant Afghanistan has not gotten its full share, according to an Afghanistan Analysts Network report by water resources management expert Assem Mayar.
Iran and Afghanistan have no formal agreement over their other shared river basin, the Harirud, which also flows into Turkmenistan and is often combined into a single basin with the Morghab river.
While infrastructure exists on the Afghan portions of the basin, some has not been fully utilised, Faizee said.
But that could change, he added, as the end of conflict in Afghanistan means infrastructure works don’t incur vast security costs on top of construction budgets, lifting a barrier to development of projects such as the Pashdan dam inaugurated in August on the Harirud.
Pakistan to the east
Water resources have not topped the agenda in consistently fraught relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Afghanistan’s Kabul river basin, which encompasses tributaries to the greater Indus basin and feeds the capital and largest city, is shared with Pakistan.
The countries, however, have no formal cooperation mechanism.
With the Afghan capital wracked by a severe water crisis, the Taliban authorities have sought to revitalise old projects and start new ones to tackle the problem, risking fresh tensions with Pakistan.
But the lack of funds and technical capacity means the Taliban authorities’ large water infrastructure projects across the country could take many years to come to fruition — time that could be good for diplomacy, but bad for ordinary Afghans.
Politics
UAE says it will not allow territory to be used against Iran

ABU DHABI: The United Arab Emirates said it will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for attacks against Iran, as officials outlined security, economic and humanitarian measures on Tuesday during a media briefing in Abu Dhabi.
Reem Al Hashimy, Minister of State for International Co-operation, said the UAE’s position was clear and measured. “The UAE will not permit its airspace or land to be used in any attack against Iran,” she said, adding that the country had the right to defend itself to protect its sovereignty and the safety of citizens, residents and visitors.
She described Iran’s ballistic missile programme as a threat to the wider region and said the security of Gulf states was “indivisible”. Al Hashimy added that there was no military solution to the crisis and warned that further escalation would harm regional stability.
The minister confirmed that the UAE had closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrawn its ambassador in response to recent Iranian attacks.
Separately, Major General Abdul Nasser Al Humaidi, official spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence, said the UAE would “never accept its sovereignty and security being compromised”.
He said the sounds heard in recent days were the result of missile interceptions and confirmed that the armed forces were at a high level of combat readiness. The UAE possesses strategic defence reserves capable of countering aerial threats for an extended period, he added.
On the economic front, Economy and Tourism Minister Abdulla bin Touq said the country holds sufficient strategic reserves of basic food and essential goods to meet demand for between four and six months.
“There is no risk of shortages,” he said, adding that authorities were closely monitoring markets to prevent unjustified price increases. He urged residents to avoid panic buying or over-purchasing.
Bin Touq also announced that 80 flights per day would operate during the current phase to facilitate travel for those wishing to leave.
The National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) said daily life across the UAE continues as normal, with all essential services fully operational.
Politics
Khamenei’s Death Puts Hassan Khomeini in Spotlight

The death of Ali Khamenei has intensified debate over who will lead Iran next, with attention turning to Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder.
Clerics in Iran’s powerful Assembly of Experts are responsible for appointing the next Supreme Leader, and Khamenei’s killing has accelerated what had long been a sensitive and unresolved succession question.
A Symbolic Heir
Hassan Khomeini, 53, is the grandson of Ruhollah Khomeini, the revolutionary leader who established the Islamic Republic in 1979.
He currently serves as custodian of his grandfather’s mausoleum in southern Tehran, a role that carries strong symbolic weight in Iranian politics.
Although he has never held formal government office, he is considered influential within clerical circles and maintains close ties with reformist figures.
Seen as a Relative Moderate
Hassan Khomeini is widely viewed as more moderate compared to hardline factions that consolidated power during Khamenei’s tenure.
He has publicly criticised the Guardian Council for disqualifying reformist candidates.
He called for accountability following the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, which sparked nationwide protests.
He supported diplomatic engagement during the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiations.
However, he has also defended the Islamic Republic’s system and criticised anti-government unrest, underscoring his loyalty to the state structure.
Barred From Electoral Politics
In 2016, Hassan Khomeini attempted to run for the Assembly of Experts but was disqualified by the Guardian Council, reportedly over religious credential requirements. Many observers interpreted the move as an effort to prevent a reformist challenge.
Despite this setback, he remains a respected cleric with connections across political factions, including ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Succession Uncertain
The selection of a new Supreme Leader will shape Iran’s domestic and foreign policy direction at a moment of heightened regional tension.
Some analysts argue that appointing a more moderate figure could help stabilise internal dissent and improve international positioning. Others believe hardliners may push for continuity.
The Assembly of Experts is expected to begin deliberations amid a 40-day national mourning period declared following Khamenei’s death.
Politics
France to boost nuclear arsenal, involve European allies in deterrence

- France to expand nuclear arsenal amid geopolitical risks.
- European allies to join French nuclear wargames.
- France-Germany nuclear steering group to start cooperation.
PARIS: France will expand its nuclear arsenal and will potentially allow European partners to host its aircraft on nuclear deterrence missions, President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday, signalling a major doctrine change for France and the continent.
Though France and Britain are both nuclear powers, most European countries have relied primarily on the United States for deterring any potential adversaries — a decades-old pillar of transatlantic security.
But Trump’s rapprochement with Russia on the Ukraine war and his harsher posture towards traditional allies have rattled European governments, and some countries have expressed interest in how Paris could protect them by extending its nuclear umbrella.
“We are currently experiencing a period of geopolitical upheaval fraught with risk,” Macron said in a speech delivered from a submarine base in Brittany, adding that a hardening of the French deterrence model was needed.
Unveiling the update to France’s nuclear doctrine, a once-per-term ritual for presidents, Macron promised more cooperation with European allies that have expressed interest.
Germany, but also Greece, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Sweden would be able to take part in French nuclear wargames.
“I believe I can say our partners are ready,” Macron said.
Still, Macron gave no details on how the enhanced nuclear drive would be funded, while making clear decision-making on nuclear strikes will remain solely in the hands of the French president.
Arming up together
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in a joint statement with Macron that France and Germany had established a nuclear steering group to discuss deterrence issues and would start concrete cooperation this year.

That would include participation by conventional German forces in French nuclear exercises and joint visits to strategic sites, as well as the development of non-nuclear capabilities with France and other European partners.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on X Poland was in talks “with France and a group of closest European allies on the programme of advanced nuclear deterrence”.
“We are arming up together with our friends so that our enemies will never dare to attack us,” he added.
The French leader said it would be possible to establish, under unspecified circumstances, strategic assets in other European countries that would be part of what he called a new “forward deterrence” doctrine.
“Our strategic air forces could be spread deep into the European continent,” Macron said, without giving more details.
Although the size of France’s nuclear arsenal is based on a strategy of “strict sufficiency”, the number of French warheads will be increased, Macron said.
France spends roughly 5.6 billion euros ($6.04 billion) a year to maintain its stockpile of 290 submarine- and air-launched weapons — the world’s fourth-largest arsenal. Britain has 225 nuclear warheads. Russia and the United States have more than 5,000 each.
Macron said close ties on nuclear deterrence will continue with Britain. He also said the current rethink of French nuclear doctrine has been done in total transparency with Washington, and was complementary to Nato’s nuclear mission.
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