Politics
Afghanistan’s water crisis goes regional
Over four decades of war, Afghanistan wielded limited control over five major river basins that flow across its borders into downstream neighbouring nations.
But as Taliban authorities swept to power and tightened their grip on the country, they have pushed for Afghanistan’s water sovereignty, launching infrastructure projects to harness precious resources in the arid territory.
Dams and canals have sparked tensions with neighbouring states, testing the Taliban government’s efforts to build strong regional ties, as they remain largely isolated on the global stage since their 2021 takeover.
At the same time, the region is facing the shared impacts of climate change intensifying water scarcity, as temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift, threatening glaciers and snowpack that feed the country’s rivers.
Here are key points about Afghanistan’s transboundary water challenges:
Central Asian states to the north
Afghanistan is emerging as a new player in often fraught negotiations on the use of the Amu Darya, one of two key rivers crucial for crops in water-stressed Central Asia, where water sharing relies on fragile accords since Soviet times.
Central Asian states have expressed concern over the Qosh Tepa mega canal project that could divert up to 21% of the Amu Darya’s total flow to irrigate 560,000 hectares of land across Afghanistan’s arid north, and further deplete the Aral Sea.
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are likely to face the biggest impact, both joined by Kazakhstan in voicing alarm, even as they deepen diplomatic ties with the Taliban authorities — officially recognised so far by only Russia.
“No matter how friendly the tone is now,” water governance expert Mohd Faizee warned, “at some point there will be consequences for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan when the canal starts operating”.
Taliban officials have denied that the project will have a major impact on the Amu Darya’s water levels and pledged it will improve food security in a country heavily dependent on climate-vulnerable agriculture and facing one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
“There is an abundance of water, especially when the Amu Darya floods and glacial meltwater flows into it” in the warmer months, said project manager Sayed Zabihullah Miri, during a visit to the canal works in Faryab province, where diggers carved into a drought-ridden plain dotted with camels and locusts.
Iran to the west
Iran is the only country with which Afghanistan has a formal water sharing treaty, agreed in 1973 over the Helmand river, which traverses Taliban heartland territory, but the accord was never fully implemented.
Longstanding tensions over the river’s resources have spiked over dams in southern Afghanistan, particularly in periods of drought, which are likely to increase as climate shocks hit the region’s water cycle.
Iran, facing pressure in its parched southeastern region, has repeatedly demanded that Afghanistan respect its rights, charging that upstream dams restrict the Helmand’s flow into a border lake.
The Taliban authorities insist there is not enough water to release more to Iran, blaming the impact of climate pressures on the whole region.
They also argue long-term poor water management has meant Afghanistan has not gotten its full share, according to an Afghanistan Analysts Network report by water resources management expert Assem Mayar.
Iran and Afghanistan have no formal agreement over their other shared river basin, the Harirud, which also flows into Turkmenistan and is often combined into a single basin with the Morghab river.
While infrastructure exists on the Afghan portions of the basin, some has not been fully utilised, Faizee said.
But that could change, he added, as the end of conflict in Afghanistan means infrastructure works don’t incur vast security costs on top of construction budgets, lifting a barrier to development of projects such as the Pashdan dam inaugurated in August on the Harirud.
Pakistan to the east
Water resources have not topped the agenda in consistently fraught relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Afghanistan’s Kabul river basin, which encompasses tributaries to the greater Indus basin and feeds the capital and largest city, is shared with Pakistan.
The countries, however, have no formal cooperation mechanism.
With the Afghan capital wracked by a severe water crisis, the Taliban authorities have sought to revitalise old projects and start new ones to tackle the problem, risking fresh tensions with Pakistan.
But the lack of funds and technical capacity means the Taliban authorities’ large water infrastructure projects across the country could take many years to come to fruition — time that could be good for diplomacy, but bad for ordinary Afghans.
- Study visas blocked for Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar, Sudan.
- Britain will also halt work visas for Afghans.
- UK says legal asylum claims rose 470% between 2021 and 2025.
Britain said on Tuesday it would block study visas for nationals from four countries and halt work visas for Afghans, using what it called an “emergency brake” to curb rising asylum claims from people entering through legal routes.
Immigration remains one of Britain’s most politically sensitive issues, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government has sought to show it is tightening the system as the populist Reform UK party gains ground in opinion polls.
The interior ministry, which is set to block study visas for nationals from Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan, said asylum applications by students from these countries had jumped more than fivefold between 2021 and 2025.
It also said claims by Afghans on work visas were now outstripping the number of visas issued.
“Britain will always provide refuge to people fleeing war and persecution, but our visa system must not be abused,” interior minister Shabana Mahmood said in a statement.
“That is why I am taking the unprecedented decision to refuse visas for those nationals seeking to exploit our generosity.”
Asylum claims trebling since 2021
According to the government, asylum claims made after entering on legal visas have more than trebled since 2021 and accounted for 39% of the 100,000 people who applied last year.
It said that nearly 16,000 nationals from the four listed countries were currently being supported at public expense, including more than 6,000 in hotels, adding to pressure over the cost of asylum accommodation, which it put at 4 billion pounds ($5.34 billion) a year.
The changes would take effect on March 26, the government said, adding that it intended to create new capped “safe and legal routes” once the asylum system stabilises.
Britain has granted sanctuary to more than 37,000 Afghans through resettlement schemes since 2021 and issued about 190,000 humanitarian visas last year.
It said it had secured cooperation from Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo on returns, after warning in November that their nationals risked losing access to UK visas.
Starmer has previously said that Britain’s asylum rules were more permissive compared with parts of Europe and acted as a “pull factor” for people seeking to reach the country.
His government announced plans in November to make refugee status temporary and speed up removals of people who arrive illegally.
With elections approaching in Israel, the war with Iran has handed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to restore an image deeply scarred by October 7, 2023 Gaza attack, experts say.
But any political dividend would depend on how the conflict unfolds and how long it lasts, they say.
A day after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was martyred in a wave of US-Israeli strikes, Netanyahu said that his close ties with Washington had enabled Israel to “do what I have long aspired to do for 40 years: to strike the terrorist regime decisively”.
The Gaza war eroded Netanyahu’s popularity. Critics have accused him of seeking to evade responsibility for the authorities’ failure to prevent the deadliest day in Israel’s history.
At 76, the leader of the right-wing Likud party is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, with more than 18 cumulative years in office across multiple stints.
Known for his political resilience, Netanyahu has been without a parliamentary majority since the summer, amid a crisis with his ultra-Orthodox religious allies.
He is also standing trial in a long-running corruption case and has sought a presidential pardon, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly pressuring President Isaac Herzog to grant one.
‘Total victory’
Elections must be held by October 27 at the latest.
Netanyahu will call early elections, says Emmanuel Navon, a political analyst at Tel Aviv University.
“It’s obvious. He won’t wait until October given the commemoration of the October 7 anniversary,” Navon said.
“If Netanyahu was at rock bottom after the Gaza attack, he has since gradually turned the tide,” he added.
A Likud party led by Netanyahu would emerge ahead in elections held today, opinion polls suggest.
That would likely see him tasked with forming the next government, though he would still lack a majority with his current allies.
A victory over Iran could change that calculus, experts say.
“This offensive undeniably reinforces the image Netanyahu seeks to cultivate, the one associated with his ‘total victory’ slogan,” independent geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz told AFP.
“Netanyahu wants to show that this is not a campaign slogan but a reality. It is his national agenda and his electoral strategy,” he added.
‘Iran remains Iran’
Raviv Druker, a prominent journalist on Channel 13 television, argued that Netanyahu “will try to convince people that the victory is total even if that is an illusion,” noting that “Hamas still runs Gaza, and Iran remains Iran even after Saturday’s strike”.
On the popular news website Walla, journalist Ouriel Deskal went further, suggesting Netanyahu may have chosen the timing of the hostilities to automatically delay — under a state of emergency — the March 30 deadline for passing a budget for which he has struggled to secure a majority.
Without a budget, the government would fall on April 1 and elections would be called.
In that scenario, Netanyahu would enter the campaign from a position of weakness.
By contrast “if this war against Iran is a success for Israel, it will be a political victory for Netanyahu,” Navon said.
But should the war drag on, the picture could shift dramatically, Horowitz warned.
“Public tolerance for a long war with heavy casualties, combined with a high cost of living, remains extremely low,” he said.
During the war last June, Iranian missiles killed 30 people in Israel. Since Saturday, 10 people have been killed in Iran’s retaliatory strikes.
“Israel’s victories are primarily attributed to the army and to civilian resilience, which enabled the country to wage the longest war in its history,” Horowitz noted.
“The army’s popularity is rising, not necessarily Netanyahu’s.”
UAE says it will not allow its airspace to be used for attacks against Iran, announces security and economic measures amid regional tensions.The United Arab Emirates has announced it will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for attacks against Iran, as officials outlined security, economic and humanitarian measures during a media briefing in Abu Dhabi.
Reem Al Hashimy, Minister of State for International Co-operation, said the UAE’s position was “clear and measured.”
“The UAE will not permit its airspace or land to be used in any attack against Iran,” she said, adding that the country reserves the right to defend its sovereignty and ensure the safety of citizens, residents and visitors.
She also confirmed that the UAE had closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrawn its ambassador following recent Iranian attacks.
High Combat Readiness
Major General Abdul Nasser Al Humaidi, spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence, said the UAE would not tolerate any compromise of its sovereignty or security.
He explained that sounds heard in recent days were due to missile interceptions and confirmed that armed forces remain at a high level of combat readiness. The UAE, he said, possesses sufficient strategic defence reserves to counter aerial threats for an extended period.
Economic Measures & Supplies
On the economic front, Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Tourism, said the country holds strategic reserves of essential goods sufficient for four to six months.
“There is no risk of shortages,” he said, adding that authorities are monitoring markets to prevent unjustified price increases and urging residents to avoid panic buying.
He also announced that around 80 flights per day would operate during the current phase to facilitate travel for those wishing to leave.
Daily Life Continues
The National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) said daily life across the UAE continues as normal, with essential services fully operational.
The statements come amid heightened regional tensions, as Gulf countries navigate security concerns while seeking to maintain stability at home.
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