Stock market recommendations: APL Apollo Tubes, and HDFC Asset Management Company are Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives, SBI Securities’ top stock picks for this week. Below are his stock picks and also views on Nifty.Nifty ViewThe benchmark index Nifty continues to inch higher; however, this phase of the rally is notably different, as the spotlight has shifted away from the headline index. While Nifty has extended its pullback rally for the second consecutive week and closed in the green, the real strength is emerging beneath the surface. The broader markets have taken the lead, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 delivering a robust rally and clearly outperforming the frontline index. Both indices have decisively moved above their key moving averages, signalling trend strength, whereas Nifty is still trading below its 100day and 200day EMA. Most importantly, Nifty Midcap 100 is now just a short distance away from its alltime high, suggesting that the next leg of opportunity may be unfolding beyond the conventional largecap space.Focusing back on Nifty, the index has been sustaining above its 50day EMA for the last three trading sessions, while the 20day and 50day EMA have started to edge higher, reflecting improvement in the shortterm trend. Meanwhile, the downward momentum in the 100day and 200day EMA has slowed considerably, indicating a stabilisation in the mediumterm structure. Momentum indicators further support the constructive bias, with the daily RSI trading above the 57 mark and moving higher, and the daily MACD histogram signalling strong bullish momentum.Collectively, these technical factors suggest that the pullback rally is likely to continue in the short term. On the upside, the 24650–24700 zone is expected to act as a crucial hurdle for the index. A sustainable breakout above 24700 could lead to an extension of the pullback rally towards 25000, followed by 25200 in the near term. On the downside, the 24050–24000 zone will serve as immediate support, and as long as the index remains above the 24000 mark, the ongoing pullback rally is likely to stay intact.Bank Nifty ViewThe banking benchmark Bank Nifty also ended the week on a positive note, indicating the continuation of its ongoing pullback rally. However, over the last three trading sessions, the index has struggled to decisively cross its 200day EMA, suggesting a phase of consolidation near a key long-term resistance zone. This price behaviour reflects hesitation at higher levels and points towards a pause in momentum after the recent recovery.This consolidation largely indicates a degree of caution among market participants, as investors appear to be awaiting clarity on the Q4 earnings outcome of major banking heavyweights, namely ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. With both results scheduled over the weekend, the index is likely to witness a directional move post the earnings announcements, depending on earnings performance and management commentary.From a technical perspective, the index continues to maintain a constructive short-term setup, as it is trading above its 20day and 50day EMA, reflecting underlying strength. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the daily RSI placed above the 55 level and trending higher, suggesting improving buying momentum and positive shortterm bias.Looking ahead, the 57000–57100 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance area, as it coincides with both the prior swing high and the 100day EMA, making it an important supply zone. A sustainable move above 57100 could lead to a further extension of the pullback rally towards 57800, followed by 58500 in the short term. On the downside, the 55800–55700 zone is placed as an important support band, and any dip towards this region is likely to attract buying interest as long as the structure remains intact.Stock recommendations:APL Apollo TubesAPL Apollo Tubes has shown strong bullish intent after a 14.5% pullback from its early April lows near the 200-day EMA, indicating solid support at lower levels. The recent consolidation between 2072–1961 acted as a base, with the stock now delivering a decisive breakout on strong footing. A positive DI crossover on ADX signals clear buyer dominance, while the MACD nearing a move above the zero line with rising histogram bars points to strengthening momentum.The overall setup suggests the stock is well-positioned to extend its uptrend in the near term. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 2110-2090 with a stoploss of 2020. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 2255 in the short term.HDFC Asset Management CompanyHDFC Asset Management Company has exhibited strong bullish momentum, closing Friday’s session with an impressive 4.89% gain. The stock has surged nearly 26% from its March lows, indicating robust buying interest. Momentum indicators remain firmly supportive, with RSI sustaining above 60, reflecting strength. Additionally, a positive DI crossover on ADX highlights clear buyer dominance, while rising MACD histogram bars with the MACD line above the zero mark further reinforce the ongoing uptrend. The overall structure suggests the stock is well-positioned to extend its upward trajectory. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 2800-2770 with a stoploss of 2690. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 2990 in the short term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty opened in red on Monday on weak global cues as the closure of Strait of Hormuz led to an increase in oil prices. However the market quickly revered losses to move in green territory. While Nifty50 went above 24,400, BSE Sensex was up over 300 points. At 11:00 AM, Nifty50 was trading at 24,430.50, up 77 points or 0.32%. BSE Sensex was at 78,805.37, up 312 points or 0.40%.A key factor to watch will be the next round of diplomatic talks between the US and Iran, particularly as the April 22 ceasefire deadline draws closer.Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says, “With the deescalation- escalation drama in the West Asian conflict continuing, the market will remain volatile in the near-term. With Iran hardening its position again, closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to retaliate to US’ seizure of an Iranian ship ‘violating the US blockade’, there is potential for a flare up of the conflict when the ceasefire ends on 22nd April. However, the market signals do not reflect renewed concern and flare up of the conflict. Even though Brent crude has spiked back to $95 levels from below $90 on Friday, there is no panic in the crude market.” “A significant trend in the market now is the outperformance of the broader market. Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap indices are back to pre-war levels. This is in contrast to the Nifty which is still 4% below pre-war levels. The market is responding positively to good results from the broader market space. Even with the uncertainty of the West Asia tensions weighing on the market, particular stocks will respond to good results, particularly when the results beat expectations.“At the start of the new week, oil prices climbed, the US dollar rebounded from recent lows, and global equities showed mixed movement as tensions in the Middle East disrupted shipping flows in and out of the Gulf. Even so, market participants continued to anticipate a possible resolution.Early Monday trends indicated declines in US equity futures, with S&P 500 futures down 0.6% by mid-morning in Tokyo. In Asia, Hang Seng futures rose 1.2%, Nikkei 225 futures edged up 0.3%, Japan’s Topix gained 0.5%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained largely unchanged. In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 futures slipped 1.2%.Crude oil prices rebounded by more than 6% on Monday after plunging over 9% on Friday, as reports emerged that the Strait of Hormuz had been shut again following mutual accusations by the US and Iran of ceasefire violations involving attacks on vessels over the weekend.Gold prices declined by over 1% on Monday as the strengthening dollar weighed on the metal, while uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations pushed oil prices higher and reignited concerns about inflation.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

Britain is to “flirt” with recession and unemployment will be sent soaring amid the fallout of the Iran war, according to economic forecasters.

The latest Item Club report predicts the economy will flatline in the second and third quarters, which will leave gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 0.7% over the year as a whole, down from 1.4% expansion in 2025.

While the economy will “flirt with recession” – defined as two quarters or more in a row of falling GDP – it will also see higher oil and energy prices weigh on activity and the jobs market suffer its “biggest hit since the pandemic”, the Item Club warned.

But it predicted that interest rates will remain on hold throughout 2026 despite soaring inflation caused by the war.

Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the Item Club, said: “Spiralling energy costs and disruption to supply chains will push the UK to the brink of a technical recession in the middle of this year.

“Consumers’ spending power will be squeezed, while more expensive financing arrangements and a less certain global economic backdrop will pour cold water on companies’ investment plans.”

The independent forecasting group said the UK’s jobless rate will peak at 5.8% by the middle of 2027, with almost 250,000 more people without a job.

It follows a gloomy economic outlook report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week showing the UK facing the biggest downgrade to growth among the G7 group of countries, with 0.8% forecast for 2026, down sharply from the 1.3% predicted in January.

But recent figures showed the UK economy had stronger-than-first thought momentum before the Iran war impact, with data showing GDP grew by 0.5% month-on-month in February – the fastest expansion since January 2024.

The Item Club said inflation is set to soar to almost 4% in the second half of 2026 – nearly double the Bank’s 2% target – but that Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policymakers will hold off from knee-jerk hikes to interest rates.

Mr Swannell said: “We don’t expect the Bank of England to repeat the 2022 playbook and hike interest rates as energy prices rise.

“This time policy is already restrictive, and a more fragile economy means that businesses will find it harder to pass on higher costs to the consumer.

“Instead, the MPC can stand pat as it waits for inflation to fall back before it cuts interest rates a couple more times in the middle of next year.”