Business
As holidays approach, value players Walmart and T.J. Maxx are drawing the cash-strapped and the wealthy
Sign at the entrance to a Walmart in Venice, Florida(L), and a T.J. Maxx store in Pinole, California.
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As more major retailers post earnings, one theme is clear: Value players are winning both the wealthy and the cash-strapped.
Walmart and TJX, T.J. Maxx’s parent company, stood apart from the pack this week by hiking their full-year forecasts and expressing optimism about the start of the holiday season. Both said sales have grown as they win shoppers across the income spectrum, in the same week other major U.S. retailers Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target cut their profit outlooks and said they saw consumer reluctance to make large purchases.
In an interview with CNBC, Walmart CFO John David Rainey said the big-box retailer has seen “value-seeking and choiceful” spending patterns by consumers for the past several quarters. He said “it stands to reason, if there’s a little incremental strain on the consumer, they’re only going to become more so, they’re going to look for more value.”
And TJX CEO Ernie Herrman said the company, which includes Marshalls and Home Goods, has seen a “strong start” to the holiday quarter and is “convinced that consumers will continue to seek out value.”
Shares of both Walmart and TJX rose on Thursday, even as the three major U.S. stock indexes turned negative.
The performance of the two retailers, which are both strongly associated with compelling deals, jumps out at a moment when investors, industry watchers and economists are trying to predict retail sales during the critical holiday season and the outlook for the U.S. economy next year. Their performance could bode well for other off-price chains, such as Ross and Burlington, and value-focused players, including Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Five Below and Costco, which will report their most recent earnings in the coming weeks.
In recent months, a mix of factors have made it difficult to gauge how retailers and the broader economy will fare in the months ahead. That includes jitters about the job market following major layoffs at companies including Amazon, Verizon, UPS and Target, and concerns that the stock market has been propped up by artificial intelligence companies, contributing to the risk of an bubble. A prolonged government shutdown also muddied the waters by delaying the release of recent jobs and inflation data.
There have also been contradictions between what consumers say and do. Consumer sentiment has tumbled to nearly the lowest level ever, even as retail sales grew stronger in October, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
That’s led to murky holiday expectations. For example, the National Retail Federation predicted that holiday sales will grow by 3.7% to 4.2% year over year and top $1 trillion for the first time, while consulting firm PwC said consumers plan to cut their holiday spending average by 5% compared to the year-ago holiday season.
Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target put their thumbs on the scale this week. All three lowered their full-year profit forecasts and spoke of pressure on their businesses as customers hesitate to take on bigger projects or make pricier purchases.
For Home Depot and Lowe’s, the lack of consumer confidence may prolong a period of conservative spending driven by lower housing turnover. For more than two years, they have seen customers take on smaller home improvement projects rather than splurges like remodels and renovations that cost more or require financing. That pattern has held, even though they cater to U.S. consumers who typically own a home and have benefitted from home equity gains.
Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison said even homeowners are “not immune” to feeling shaken by news headlines about the government shutdown, higher tariffs and other policy changes that could hit their wallets — which could encourage price-sensitivity and procrastination on purchases. He said the home improvement retailer has focused on ways it can move the needle with its own strategies, such as expanding its merchandise assortment and attracting more home professionals as customers.
Target, which has faced some struggles of its own making, expects shoppers will watch prices and make trade-offs during the holiday season, such as spending more on gifts and less in other areas like decor or food, Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez said on a call with reporters. The retailer has cut prices on 3,000 food and home essentials and tried to attract shoppers with low opening price points, such as $1 Christmas tree ornaments.
At Walmart, Rainey told CNBC the company has “been gaining [market] share among all income cohorts, but as we noted for several quarters, they’re more pronounced in the upper-income segment.”
For TJX, Herrman said the company’s focus on value is a competitive edge. He said on the company’s earnings call that it’s blend of “brand, fashion, quality and price sets us apart from many other retailers and has served us extremely well through many kinds of retail and economic environments over the course of our nearly 50-year history.”
In a research note, retail analyst and Telsey Advisory Group CEO Dana Telsey said TJX’s repeated earnings beats “highlight the strength of its value-focused proposition, which continues to resonate with consumers amid an increasingly price-sensitive environment.”
Customers of all incomes are coming to TJX’s stores and website, but lower-income shoppers drove sales growth in most of its geographies in its latest quarter, CFO John Klinger said on an earnings call.
While Walmart and TJX have weathered cracks in the economy better than many other retailers, they’re not immune to economic weakness.
Walmart’s Rainey said that despite its strong sales forecast for the year, the retailer has spotted “pockets of moderation” among low-income shoppers as they feel more pinched than other customers. On the company’s earnings call on Thursday, he referred to the sharp disparity in wage growth between high- and low-income U.S. consumers.
He also told CNBC that the retailer noticed a pullback by customers who stopped receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits during the government shutdown. But Rainey said, “that’s starting to rebound now that people are receiving those funds again.”
“We’re seeing the same things that that others are, and we’re keeping a watchful eye on it,” he said on the company’s earnings call. “But again, I think Walmart is better insulated than just about anybody.”
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Waitrose is set to remove mackerel from its shelves amid escalating concerns over unsustainable fishing practices.
The retailer said that it is the first major UK supermarket to suspend sourcing of the popular fish.
It said that fresh, chilled, and frozen mackerel, primarily sourced from Scottish waters, will be unavailable to shoppers by 29 April. Tinned varieties will follow once the current stock is depleted.
Conservationists are welcoming the move and urging other supermarkets to follow suit.
The measure comes as governments have repeatedly failed to implement catch limits recommended by scientists, jeopardising the long-term viability of mackerel stocks.
The International Council for Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has issued stark warnings, advising a 70 per cent reduction in catches for 2026 across all regional mackerel stocks compared to 2025’s recommended levels.
With the stock consistently fished above sustainable thresholds, this translates to a 77 per cent cut on the 755,143 tonnes scientists estimated would be caught in 2025.
Overfishing has resulted in depleting mackerel stocks in the north-east Atlantic, with Ices saying the species, and the wider fishing industry, could face long-term risks unless countries stick to recommended catch limits.
Waitrose said the decision in December by four of the coastal states which fish mackerel to cut catches by 48 per cent was a step forward, but did not meet Ices advice.
North-east Atlantic mackerel will no longer meet the supermarket’s responsible sourcing requirements in line with the Sustainable Seafood Coalition codes of conduct, the retailer said.
Jake Pickering, head of agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries at Waitrose, said: “By suspending sourcing of mackerel at Waitrose we are reinforcing our ethical and sustainable business commitments, acting to tackle overfishing and protect the long-term health of our oceans and this crucial fish.
“Our customers trust us to source responsibly, and we are closely monitoring the fishery.
“We look forward to bringing mackerel back to our shelves once it meets our high sourcing standards.”
As alternatives, Waitrose is launching a new range of fish products including hot smoked herring, hot smoked peppered herring and hot smoked sweetcure seabass, all of which are Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certified.
The retailer said it would also introduce MSC-certified frozen sardines from May as a sustainable replacement for frozen mackerel, and plans to become the first retailer to sell 100 per cent MSC tinned sardines.
Waitrose said it would maintain its relationship with its mackerel suppliers and its new supply of herring, seabass, sardines and trout will be sourced through current supplier partnerships.
But there is currently no predetermined time-frame as to when Waitrose will start sourcing mackerel again.
Marija Rompani, director of ethics and sustainability at the John Lewis Partnership, said: “We believe sustainable food production must balance climate action, nature protection and responsible fish sourcing is fundamental to protecting our oceans.
“We will continue to work closely with suppliers and industry partners to support the recovery and responsible management of fish stocks.”
Charles Clover, co-founder of conservation charity Blue Marine Foundation, said mackerel – one of the largest remaining commercial fish stocks in the north-east Atlantic – had declined 75 per cent in the last 10 years because fishing nations, including the UK, had overfished it.
“They have put too little effort into the task of reaching agreement on a sharing arrangement – and some countries have been awarding themselves more quota than is justified by science,” he said.
“This crisis has been ignored for too long.
“We hope that this action by Waitrose sends it to the top of the political agenda. We call on other retailers to follow Waitrose’s example.”
The arrival of a salary credit message at the beginning of the month often brings a sense of relief and optimism, with many planning to save money or make long-delayed purchases. However, for a large number of salaried individuals, that confidence fades quickly as expenses begin to pile up. Rent, electricity bills, EMIs, online purchases, dining out and everyday spending gradually reduce bank balances, leaving many struggling by the third week of the month. (News18 Hindi)
Financial experts say that recurring cash shortages are often not caused by insufficient income but by poor money habits. Small and unnoticed mistakes in managing personal finances can gradually weaken long-term financial stability. The good news, experts note, is that these habits can be corrected with simple changes and better planning. (News18 Hindi)
1. One of the most common mistakes is the absence of a proper budget. Many people begin spending as soon as their salary is credited without deciding in advance how the money will be used. Without a clear spending plan, expenses tend to rise uncontrollably. Experts recommend allocating money for essential needs such as rent, groceries, utility bills and savings immediately after receiving a salary. Preparing a simple budget by listing fixed monthly expenses in a notebook or mobile app can help maintain financial discipline. (News18 Hindi)
2. Frequent small online purchases also contribute significantly to unnecessary spending. With doorstep deliveries and frequent discounts, cashback offers and flash sales, consumers often buy items that are not essential. While individual purchases may seem minor, repeated spending of a few hundred or thousand rupees can add up to a substantial amount by the end of the month. Financial planners advise clearly distinguishing between needs and wants before making purchases. (News18 Hindi)
3. Another major mistake is the absence of an emergency fund. Unexpected expenses such as medical bills, urgent travel or home repairs can disrupt monthly budgets. Without savings set aside for emergencies, many individuals rely on credit cards or loans, which can lead to debt and reduce the following month’s disposable income. Experts suggest building an emergency fund gradually, ideally covering at least three months of essential expenses. (News18 Hindi)
4. Saving only what remains at the end of the month is another common but ineffective approach. In most cases, little or no money is left after regular spending. Financial advisers recommend setting aside savings as soon as the salary is credited, a strategy often referred to as the “pay yourself first” principle. This method helps create a consistent saving habit. (News18 Hindi)
5. Spending to maintain a certain lifestyle is also a growing concern, particularly in the age of social media. The desire to match others’ lifestyles often leads to purchases such as expensive gadgets, branded clothing or frequent dining out, even when these expenses exceed one’s income. Experts warn that such spending patterns can increase financial stress and recommend aligning lifestyle choices with income and financial priorities. (News18 Hindi)
To improve financial discipline, experts advise reviewing expenses from the previous three months to understand spending patterns. Based on this assessment, individuals can create a simple plan that divides income into spending, saving and investing. Automated savings options such as Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) or recurring deposits can help ensure consistent saving. Even small financial changes, experts say, can lead to significant long-term benefits. (News18 Hindi)
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