Business
Ask Dhirendra: ‘If I know markets go up in the long run, why do short-term losses bother me so much?’ – The Times of India
“‘If I know markets go up in the long run, why do short-term losses bother me so much?’This is one of the most honest questions an investor can ask.On paper, you know the logic. You’ve seen all the charts: “Sensex 100 to 70,000”, “Nifty over 20–25 years”, “equity beats inflation in the long run”. You nod wisely when someone says, “Equity is for the long term.”And then one fine day, you open your app, see your portfolio down 8–10 per cent, and your stomach drops.The mind says, “Long term”.The heart says, “Bas, ab yeh band karo.”Let’s start with some sympathy: there is nothing wrong with you. Your brain is not designed for SIPs; it is designed for survival.When our ancestors saw red (blood, fire, and danger) the correct response was to panic and run. Today, your app shows red numbers, and your brain uses the same wiring: “Danger, danger, get out.” The problem is that the stock market is the only place where running at the wrong time converts a temporary fall into a permanent loss.It helps to see what “short term” and “long term” actually look like in numbers.
The market tests patience before it rewards it
When we look at this kind of data at Value Research, the pattern is always similar. Over the course of a year, losses are frequent. Over ten-year periods, they shrink dramatically. So the market is not misbehaving when it falls in a single year. It’s behaving exactly like a market. It is unrealistic to expect a smooth, linear upward graph.There’s another uncomfortable truth. You don’t look at your portfolio like a long-term investor; you look at it like a daily scorecard. Every time you open the app, the number on top becomes a verdict on your intelligence. Up means “I am smart”; down means “I am stupid.” Of course, you don’t want to feel stupid for three months in a row.Now we put some more structure on this feeling.Imagine you start a ₹10,000 monthly SIP in a good, diversified equity fund for 15–20 years. Somewhere along the way, there is a year when the market is down 20 per cent.There are only three things that can happen in that year:
- You panic and stop your SIP or redeem.
- You grit your teeth and do nothing.
- You not only continue but increase your investments.
The cost of doing the wrong thing at the wrong time
When we run such scenarios at Value Research, the surprising part is this: the investor who simply does nothing in bad years often beats the one who keeps jumping around trying to avoid pain.So why can’t we “do nothing” easily?Partly because we confuse volatility with failure, a minus 10 per cent year feels like a verdict on our choice rather than a normal part of the journey. And partly because we mix up time horizons. We say, “This is for my retirement in 2045,” and then behave as if the performance over the last 45 days is all that matters.One practical way to calm yourself is to separate money by purpose. If you put all your money into the market and then need some of it next year, of course, every fall will feel catastrophic. But if you’ve done the boring work—kept an emergency fund, kept short-term money in safer avenues—then the equity money is truly long-term. You’re not going to need it next Diwali, so you don’t have to judge it every Diwali.Another trick is to change what you watch.Instead of staring at the absolute value, look at two different things:
- How much time do you have left before you actually need this money?
- How much of your target have you already accumulated?
At Value Research, our planning tools and advice try to shift people from “portfolio value today” to “probability of meeting your goal over time”. It’s much easier to tolerate a bad year in the market if you see that you’re still broadly on track for your long-term destination.And finally, accept this: you don’t have to enjoy seeing losses. You just have to not overreact to them. The test of a good investment is not whether it goes up every quarter; it’s whether it helps you reach your goals over ten or twenty years, without making you do something foolish in between.So if you know markets go up in the long run but short-term losses still bother you, that just means you’re human. Good. Stay human. Just put a system around your humanity:
- Keep your emergency and near-term money out of harm’s way.
- Use equity only for genuinely long-term goals.
- Decide your SIPs when you are calm, and refuse to renegotiate them with your panicked future self.
Red numbers on a screen are not a verdict on your intelligence. Most of the time, they’re just the market’s way of asking, “Did you really mean it when you said long term?”If the answer is yes, close the app and let time do the arguing for you.If you have any queries for Dhirendra Kumar you can drop us an email at: toi.business@timesinternet.in(Dhirendra Kumar is Founder and CEO of Value Research)
Visa Inc. signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Visa is launching six new tools using artificial intelligence to modernize the process of disputing credit card charges, the company told CNBC exclusively.
The digital payments company said the tools are designed to reduce the costs and frustration of “outdated” dispute processes for multiple entities involved in the payments process: merchants, issuers and acquirers.
“Some of the challenges are these back-office systems are still largely manual,” Andrew Torre, Visa’s president of value-added services, told CNBC. “We really had to think differently about how we approach this at scale.”
In 2025, Torre said, Visa processed more than 103 million charge disputes globally, marking a 35% increase since 2019.
“Our goal is to streamline this as much as possible,” Torre said. “We’d love to be able to see that growth rate come down.”
Visa’s new tools are part of a larger push by major banks and financial institutions to incorporate AI into their businesses — both internally and in consumer-facing applications. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have both said they’re already using AI to hire fewer people. BNY spent $3.8 billion on technology in 2025, or about 19% of its revenue.
Visa said three of its six new tools focus on merchants, allowing them to address potential disputes before they escalate, managing disputes with generative AI responses and providing a deeper level of detail on order insights to manage confusion over unfamiliar charges.
For example, Torre said, many disputes are borne out of cardholders not recognizing a specific charge on their statements. With the new tool, Visa will be able to provide further details to financial institutions to show cardholders that data at a deeper level, according to the company.
The other three tools are built for issuers and acquirers, using predictive AI models to aid in case-by-case analysis, analyzing documents for summaries and auto fill and establishing an AI-powered dispute platform to manage the entire process in one location, Visa said.
“We’ll be able to get them insights and data so they can move from being reactive to proactive,” Torre said.
Torre said Visa’s new AI tools are part of a broader host of solutions for consumers, including a subscription manager announced last week that allows cardholders to cancel unnecessary subscriptions directly on the manager.
The automation will save time, money and unnecessary confusion for both parties, he added. Most of the tools will be generally available later this year, the company said.
“We really believe that disputes in this solution makes it much easier to manage and resolve,” Torre said. “We think it has better outcomes for everyone.”
Food bills are set to soar as much as 10 per cent this year as a direct consequence of the Iran war, a key industry body has warned.
The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), which represents 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, has hiked its inflation forecast for the year from 3.2 per cent to between nine and 10 per cent.
During the 2022 cost of living crisis, food inflation rose at a rate of 10.9 per cent, figures from the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) show, while the following year was even worse at 14.6 per cent.
Since then, it had dropped back to 2.7 per cent (2024) and 4.2 per cent (2025), but while this year had originally been forecast to deliver food inflation of 3.2 per cent, the latest assessment is that it will instead see a huge rise in the second half of 2026.
The FDF said the current situation is “unprecedented and hard to predict”, but it’s “clear that food inflation is going to rise in the months ahead”.
How much that adds to the average bill depends on the size and frequency of a consumer’s usual grocery habits, but on average, bills could rise by around £588, according to some estimates.
Consumer rights and review site Which? frequently assesses UK supermarkets for cost, and at the start of 2026, an average basket of 89 shopping products cost £161.56 at Aldi and up to £217.02 at Waitrose.
Assuming food inflation lands at the mid-point of the FDF forecast, 9.5 per cent, and that all products and supermarkets applied that uplift equally, that would move the costs of those shops up to £176.91 and £237.64 respectively.
Research from confused.com suggested the average UK household spent £119 each week on food shopping, which is £6,188 each year; a 9.5 per cent uplift to that equates to an extra £588 annually, or a total of just over £130 per week and £6,775 annually.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to meet with some supermarket chiefs on Wednesday, including Sainsbury’s and Tesco, over discussions to assess the upcoming impact of price rises on the cost of living. The Treasury has described it as a “fact-finding” conversation.
Last month, Asda boss Allan Leighton called on Labour to do more to help businesses after creating “a lot of constraints” for them.
For food manufacturers, there is both a concern now and another yet to come in terms of energy cost rises.
Diesel – used in farm machinery – is up by 80 per cent since the start of the war, while fertiliser costs could increase further, as well as supply being constrained. The FDF also points to lost sales due to cancelled shipments to the Middle East, with UK firms regularly exporting cheese, cereals, chocolate and more to the region.
Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at The Food and Drink Federation, said: “The food and drink sector is already feeling the force of this geopolitical shock. As one of the UK’s energy-intensive industries, manufacturers are facing mounting energy bills, rising transport and packaging costs and disruption across key supply chains.
“These pressures are hitting simultaneously and are a significant challenge for businesses to absorb.
“The current situation is unprecedented and hard to predict; however, given the scale and speed of these cost increases, and despite companies’ best efforts not to pass price increases on, it’s clear that food inflation is going to rise in the months ahead.”
The FDF says its upgraded inflation figures were based on “assumptions that the Strait of Hormuz opens to cargo traffic within the next two to three weeks”, as has been suggested by Donald Trump this week, and that most commodities, including oil, gas and fertiliser production, return to normal within a year.
In the past few months, the FDF has repeatedly called for the government to offer support to businesses in the sector from rising energy bills in the same way as it does to those in some other manufacturing areas.
GST collections: India’s net Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections increased to Rs 1.78 lakh crore in March 2026, marking a rise of 8.2% compared to the previous month, according to official figures released on Wednesday.Gross GST revenue for March stood at Rs 2 lakh crore, which is an 8.8% increase over the same month last year.Abhishek Jain, Indirect Tax Head & Partner, KPMG says, “GST collections continue to show steady 9% annual growth, supported by strong import activity this month and consistent compliance. While export refunds have eased this month but remain healthy overall for the year”Refunds during the month totalled Rs 0.22 lakh crore, up 13.8% on a year-on-year basis, which resulted in net GST collections of Rs 1.78 lakh crore.Domestic GST revenue reached Rs 1.46 lakh crore, registering a growth of 5.9%, while revenue from imports was recorded at Rs 0.54 lakh crore, rising sharply by 17.8% during the period.Post-settlement GST figures across states presented a varied trend. While industrially advanced states recorded strong growth, several others reported a decline.Maharashtra contributed the highest amount to the overall collections at Rs 0.13 lakh crore on a pre-settlement basis, followed by Karnataka and Gujarat.Among states showing an increase in post-settlement SGST collections were Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, among others.On the other hand, states such as Jammu and Kashmir, Chandigarh, Delhi, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Assam, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, among others, registered a decline in post-settlement SGST revenues.
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