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Betting Patriots-Bills: Game bets and four player props worth considering

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Betting Patriots-Bills: Game bets and four player props worth considering


Sunday’s slate of Week 5 games culminates with an AFC East matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills on “Sunday Night Football.”

New England (2-2) is coming off a 42-13 shellacking of the Carolina Panthers, while undefeated Buffalo disposed of the New Orleans Saints, 31-19.

The Bills and Patriots split their series last year, with both teams winning at home. They played twice in a three-week span last season but won’t meet again this year until Week 15.

Buffalo, the Super Bowl favorite at +425, has won its last three games by double-digits and is favored by 7.5 points for Sunday’s tilt.

Here are the odds and trends, plus picks, props and analysis from our experts to help you bet Sunday night’s game.

Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.


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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends

Game bets

Bills -7.5 (-105)

Maldonado: This matchup is about pressure (or lack of). Josh Allen is elite in both production and efficiency. When teams get to him, he’s human, but if they don’t, he’s unstoppable. That’s a problem for a New England team ranked near the bottom of the league in pressure rate, completion rate allowed, YPA allowed and touchdown rate. The Patriots have given up the second-most explosive plays in the league, while Buffalo leads the NFL in both points per drive (3.09) and explosive plays, so sustained scoring drives should come easy. On the other side, Drake Maye‘s efficiency collapses under pressure, and Buffalo ranks second in creating it. Unless New England runs the ball efficiently, its offense will sputter. Over four quarters, Buffalo’s talent and pressure win out.

Notable player props, bets

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0:47

Will Drake Maye continue his early-season fantasy success?

Daniel Dopp explains why he likes Drake Maye to continue his fantasy success in Week 5 against the Bills.

Drake Maye to record 35+ yards rushing (+110)

Bowen: Maye is averaging 24.5 yards rushing per game this season, using his dual-threat ability to create as a runner on scramble attempts. And Maye will be forced to move against a Bills defense that leads the league with a pressure rate of 45.9%. Look for the second-year pro to extend plays outside of the pocket and pick up rushing numbers in this one.

Rhamondre Stevenson to record 3+ receptions (+115)

Maldonado: I like this more than any yardage, touchdown or alt number on the board because it perfectly aligns with the most likely game script: Bills lead, Patriots trail. Buffalo’s high pressure rate historically spikes checkdown volume. Stevenson is top five among RBs in yards per route run and has already cleared this number in 50% of games without the negative script he’s likely to get Sunday. If the Bills cover, Stevenson’s usage almost certainly gets him three catches. It’s a plus-money play with a high probability of hitting and minimal dependency on broken plays or touchdowns.



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WNBA Finals Game 2 live tracker: Can Mercury even series vs. Aces?

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WNBA Finals Game 2 live tracker: Can Mercury even series vs. Aces?


LAS VEGAS — Game 1 of the WNBA Finals delivered another thriller. Trailing by nine points with 3:36 left in the third quarter, the Las Vegas Aces used a heavy dose of zone defense to slow down the Phoenix Mercury in the final period and got timely scoring from reserve guard Dana Evans to win Friday.

Phoenix forward Alyssa Thomas fell an assist shy of her third triple-double in a WNBA Finals game — something no other player has done — but missed two critical free throws with the Mercury down one in the final 30 seconds.

Still, a win Sunday in Game 2 (3 p.m. ET, ABC) would give Phoenix a split on the road and allow the Mercury to claim home-court advantage in the first best-of-seven Finals in WNBA history. How might Phoenix adjust in Game 2? And what can Las Vegas improve after the team’s third win in as many playoff rounds that went down to the buzzer of regulation?

ESPN is tracking all the action right here, as it happens.

Jump to game preview

WNBA Finals Game 2 preview

Big bench performances made up for quiet offensive nights from some Aces starters. Who needs to step up in Game 2?

Kendra Andrews: The Aces need more offensive production from Jackie Young, who finished with eight points on 3-of-13 shooting, including 0-of-6 from 3. That’s about half her regular-season scoring average. Aces coach Becky Hammon told Young to help the bench get going, and she succeeded there. But Hammon also noted that Young, as well as A’ja Wilson, appeared a bit fatigue, which makes sense after they carried Las Vegas to victory in the decisive game of its semifinal series with Indiana. I’m watching to see if Young looks fresher despite a quick turnaround between games.

Alexa Philippou: Building on Kendra’s point, Young was the only player not in uniform at the Aces’ optional shootaround Saturday. Hammon said she thought her star guard had heavy legs in Game 1 but would be good to go Sunday. “I think her back was tired. She kind of carried us that Game [5],” the coach said jokingly. Young doesn’t need to carry Las Vegas, but the Aces need her to be more like herself to keep up with the high-octane Mercury the rest of the series.

Kevin Pelton: I’m curious whether NaLyssa Smith is more involved in Game 2. She scored a combined 34 points in Games 2 and 3 against the Fever in the semifinals, both Aces wins, but played just 16 minutes Friday after sitting out the stretch run of the final win over Indiana. Las Vegas is 3-0 (all lopsided wins) this postseason when Smith scores in double digits.


What adjustments do the Mercury need to make?

Philippou: Phoenix thought it was a promising sign that the Aces went away from their zone so early in the series, an indication Hammon thought her team’s man-to-man defense wasn’t working. “I think their zone will evolve. I think our offense will evolve,” Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts said Saturday, reiterating that the film session focused on identifying weaknesses in the Aces’ zone. Tibbetts also said Phoenix’s defensive energy needs to improve; giving up 89 points to the Aces won’t cut it.

Pelton: Phoenix didn’t totally capitalize on the offensive glass Friday night. The Aces came into the Finals last in defensive rebound percentage during the playoffs, then played smaller than usual in Game 1 with the 5-foot-6 Evans replacing the 6-4 Smith in their closing lineup. Yet, the Mercury had fewer offensive rebounds than Las Vegas. If the Aces go zone again, Phoenix players who have a size advantage should focus on crashing the glass.

Andrews: The Mercury have to figure out how to pick apart the Aces’ zone defense, a strategy Phoenix had not faced much in the playoffs. Heading into Game 1, the Mercury had faced just two possessions of zone — both against New York in the first round. On Friday, the Aces used a zone defense on 21 plays, 20 of which came in the second half, according to ESPN Insights. Phoenix shot 27% from the field on those possessions, compared with 53% shooting against Las Vegas’ one-on-one defense (72 possessions). The Mercury still finished with 14 3-pointers, but they have to figure out a successful game plan against a zone.


play

1:23

Dana Evans reacts to being called ‘the engine’ of Aces after clutch 3

Dana Evans reacts to A’ja Wilson calling her the Aces’ “engine” after Evans’ big game off the bench lifts Las Vegas in Game 1.

What are you watching for in Game 2? If it’s another close game, what could be the difference?

Philippou: Throughout the playoffs, Hammon has harped on the importance of the Aces handling success. “I want to not be able to tell whether we’re coming off a win or a loss. The mindset is the mindset,” Hammon said Saturday. “I want to see a mature approach, a veteran approach, a veteran mindset.” She thinks they’ve done only “OK” in this regard this postseason. And in a long series against a team as good as Phoenix, which was so close to beating them in Game 1, such an outlook will be as important as ever if the Aces want to win their third championship.

Pelton: The focus on the Las Vegas bench obscured that it was a relatively down night for the Mercury’s reserves. Although DeWanna Bonner and Sami Whitcomb combined for 16 points, they took 21 shots, going a combined 4-of-15 from 3-point range. Getting Whitcomb going would make the Aces think twice about going to the zone.



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Back from the dead, UCLA and Florida revel in their resuscitation

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The Bruins shocked No. 7 Penn State, and the Gators surprised No. 9 Texas. Who wouldn’t want to go 0-4 or 1-3 and then win like that?



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Women’s World Cup: In a first, Pakistan bowl out India in ODI

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Women’s World Cup: In a first, Pakistan bowl out India in ODI


Pakistan wicketkeeper attempts to stump an Indian batter during the ICC Women’s World Cup match at Colombo’s R. Premadasa Stadium on October 5, 2025. — X/ @TheRealPCB

Pakistan managed to dismiss the entire Indian batting line-up, the first time they have done so in a one-day international (ODI) match.

They achieved the feat on Sunday as Pakistan and India faced off at the ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup in Colombo, where the Blue Shirts were bowled out for 247.

No Indian batter was able to reach 50 runs, with Harleen Deol being the top scorer, hitting 46.

Diana Baig claimed four wickets, while Sadia Iqbal and Fatima Sana took two each. Rameen Shamim and Nashra Sandhu both picked up one wicket apiece.

Skipper Fatima Sana, who chose to bowl first after winning the toss, said: “We are going to bowl first because the weather is dry and the pitch looks good.”

The tournament is being held from September 30 to November 2 in India and Sri Lanka, with Pakistan playing all their group-stage matches at the R. Premadasa International Cricket Stadium in Colombo.

If Pakistan qualify for the semi-final on October 29 and the final on November 2, both matches will also take place in Colombo.





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