Sports
Betting Patriots-Bills: Game bets and four player props worth considering
Sunday’s slate of Week 5 games culminates with an AFC East matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills on “Sunday Night Football.”
New England (2-2) is coming off a 42-13 shellacking of the Carolina Panthers, while undefeated Buffalo disposed of the New Orleans Saints, 31-19.
The Bills and Patriots split their series last year, with both teams winning at home. They played twice in a three-week span last season but won’t meet again this year until Week 15.
Buffalo, the Super Bowl favorite at +425, has won its last three games by double-digits and is favored by 7.5 points for Sunday’s tilt.
Here are the odds and trends, plus picks, props and analysis from our experts to help you bet Sunday night’s game.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
Jump to:
Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends

Game bets
Maldonado: This matchup is about pressure (or lack of). Josh Allen is elite in both production and efficiency. When teams get to him, he’s human, but if they don’t, he’s unstoppable. That’s a problem for a New England team ranked near the bottom of the league in pressure rate, completion rate allowed, YPA allowed and touchdown rate. The Patriots have given up the second-most explosive plays in the league, while Buffalo leads the NFL in both points per drive (3.09) and explosive plays, so sustained scoring drives should come easy. On the other side, Drake Maye‘s efficiency collapses under pressure, and Buffalo ranks second in creating it. Unless New England runs the ball efficiently, its offense will sputter. Over four quarters, Buffalo’s talent and pressure win out.
Notable player props, bets
0:47
Will Drake Maye continue his early-season fantasy success?
Daniel Dopp explains why he likes Drake Maye to continue his fantasy success in Week 5 against the Bills.
Drake Maye to record 35+ yards rushing (+110)
Bowen: Maye is averaging 24.5 yards rushing per game this season, using his dual-threat ability to create as a runner on scramble attempts. And Maye will be forced to move against a Bills defense that leads the league with a pressure rate of 45.9%. Look for the second-year pro to extend plays outside of the pocket and pick up rushing numbers in this one.
Rhamondre Stevenson to record 3+ receptions (+115)
Maldonado: I like this more than any yardage, touchdown or alt number on the board because it perfectly aligns with the most likely game script: Bills lead, Patriots trail. Buffalo’s high pressure rate historically spikes checkdown volume. Stevenson is top five among RBs in yards per route run and has already cleared this number in 50% of games without the negative script he’s likely to get Sunday. If the Bills cover, Stevenson’s usage almost certainly gets him three catches. It’s a plus-money play with a high probability of hitting and minimal dependency on broken plays or touchdowns.
Khalil Shakir to go OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-110), score Anytime TD (+210)
Loza: Shakir has drawn fewer looks and run fewer routes than Keon Coleman four weeks into 2025, but his matchup is exploitable in Week 5. The Patriots have been middle of the pack versus the slot, allowing 275 receiving yards to that area of the field. Coincidentally, that’s where Shakir spends most of his time, recording a slot snap share of over 59% (WR12).
Additionally, Christian Gonzalez, who made his 2025 debut in Week 4 and limited Tetairoa McMillan to two catches and 31 receiving yards while in his assignment, figures to shadow Coleman. Gonzalez recorded a shadow rate of nearly 59% while giving up an average of 32.2 receiving yards in 2024. Facing softer coverage and in a game with a projected point total of 49.5, Shakir figures to emerge as Allen’s leading receiver on Sunday night. He’s facing plus coverage, has cleared the above line in three of four games and has found the end zone in back-to-back contests.
Dalton Kincaid to go OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-120)
Moody: Given this game features one of the highest point totals on the slate, it’s a great opportunity for Kincaid to shine. Kincaid has cleared this line in three out of four games this season and now faces a Patriots defense that has given up the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
-
The Patriots have covered four straight meetings with two outright wins as underdogs.
-
All three Bills home games have gone over the total this season.
-
The Bills are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as single-digit favorites.
-
Unders are 39-19 on “Sunday Night Football” since 2023.
Sports
Transfer rumors, news: Man United eye Ajax young talent Mokio
Manchester United are keeping tabs on 17-year-old Ajax star Jorthy Mokio, alongside Newcastle United and Eintracht Frankfurt while Rennes duo Jérémy Jacquet and Mohamed Meïté are on the radar of the Red Devils. Join us for the latest transfer news and rumors from around the globe.
Transfers home page | Men’s grades | Women’s grades
TOP STORIES
– Messi ‘first phone call’ to make for Barcelona presidential candidate
– Sources: Man United rejected Chelsea’s Lavia, Nkunku in Garnacho deal
– Real Madrid striker Mbappé ups PSG compensation claim to $300m
TRENDING RUMORS
– Highly rated Ajax star Jorthy Mokio is on the radar of Man United, Newcastle United, and Eintracht Frankfurt, according to Sacha Tavolieri of Sky Sports Switzerland. Mokio, 17, is under contract until 2027 but talks have stalled over new terms and he is reportedly looking to take the next step in his career. The defensive midfielder, who made his senior Belgium debut in March, can also play as a center back and left back, which makes him a valuable option to have.
– Man United are also keeping tabs on Rennes duo Jérémy Jacquet and Mohamed Meite, according to The Sun. The report claims that a scout was spotted at Rennes’ 1-0 win at Paris FC on Nov. 7 and revealed they were there to watch defender Jacquet, 20, who has played every minute so far this season, and 18-year-old striker Meita, who is considered more of a youth prospect. Arsenal and Crystal Palace were strongly linked with a move for Jacquet last summer, before he extended his contract with until 2029.
– Al Ahli striker Ivan Toney is considering taking a 50% salary cut in order to move back to the Premier League to aid his chances of playing for England at the World Cup, according to TEAMtalk. Toney, 29, has scored 11 goals in 15 games this season, and 41 goals in 59 appearances in total since his £40 million move to Saudi Arabia from Brentford in 2024, but believes he needs to return to a higher level to give him any chance of making Thomas Tuchel’s squad next summer. Tottenham Hotspur remain favorites to sign him, but face competition from Everton.
– Crystal Palace believe Liverpool are the only club interested in signing center back Marc Guéhi in the January transfer window, according to Sky Sports. Guehi’s contract runs until the end of the season and he’s free to sign a pre-contract agreement with any club outside England from Jan. 1. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona are all reported to be keen, but Liverpool are expected to make the first move when the window opens as they have lost Giovanni Leoni to a long-term injury and there is uncertainty around Ibrahima Konaté‘s future.
– Fiorentina‘s primary target for January is Chelsea‘s 19-year-old defender Josh Acheampong, according to Tuttomercatoweb. Acheampong has had chances in the first team but is reported to be open to a move away and the Serie A team are considering a loan with an option to sign him permanently. If they can’t pull that off then Chelsea center back Axel Disasi, 27, is another target as he has been frozen out of the first-team squad.
EXPERT TAKE
ESPN’s resident scout Tor-Kristian Karlsen looks at Rennes’ two young stars.
In only his first full year of his top-flight career, Jacquet has emerged as one of the most promising young center backs in France. What makes him stand out at this early stage is how complete he already looks.
His standout traits are his game-reading and calmness; he is composed on the ball — seven progressive passes per 90 minutes this season — and measured when defending. He rarely overcommits, preferring to wait out the attacker and win the ball cleanly, either through an interception or controlled sliding challenge … which has become a signature feature of his game.
Jacquet moves fluidly, hits top speed quickly and consistently looks like he has an extra gear even when up against the speediest opponents. While at 6-foot-2 he isn’t that imposing, he compensates with an impressive vertical leap and his 74% aerial win rate is the best in Ligue 1 among center backs with more than 1,000 league minutes this season.
Then, at the other end of the pitch, Meïte is in the process of establishing himself as a No. 9 prospect. At 6-foot-4, the 18-year-old offers the classic physical profile of a target man and has won 75% of his duels off the ground this season, but he also has more mobility and finesse — flicks, good touch, clever lay-offs — than his size may suggest.
Last season he was brought up from the reserves and produced two goals in 12 league games. This season he has continued to earn the trust of his manager, registering just short of 600 senior minutes and adding a small-but-steady stream of goal contributions while generating 13 shots (he’s a high-volume shooter at 3.4 shots per 90) on target.
The France U21 international’s defining feature is arguably his penalty-box presence. He attacks crosses with confidence, uses his body intelligently to fend off opponents, and is able to find space to run on either side of the center backs. The fact he has already started high-profile games ahead of more established forwards reflects how highly Rennes rate him.
OTHER RUMORS
1:54
Will Gabriel’s injury impact the Premier League title race?
Don Hutchison has his say on the Premier League title race, after the news of a thigh injury for Arsenal defender Gabriel.
– Paris Saint-Germain are hoping to beat Manchester United, Arsenal and Real Madrid to the signing of Lille’s 18-year-old midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi for a fee of around €45 million. (Ekrem Konur)
– VfB Stuttgart defensive midfielder Angelo Stiller would prefer to join Real Madrid over Manchester United. (Defensa Central)
– Arsenal midfielder Ethan Nwaneri could leave on loan in January in an effort to get more games under his belt. (Daily Mail)
– Barcelona goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen, 33, could move to Besiktas on loan in January, with a permanent option. (Sport)
– Bayern Munich and Barcelona are exploring the possibility of signing left back Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer Leverkusen. The 30-year-old prefers a return to Spain, which suits Leverkusen, who would much rather he left for LaLiga than join their Bundesliga rivals. (Marca)
– Chelsea goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen could leave the Blues in January after just 18 months at the club as he seeks more game time. (TalkSPORT)
– Inter Milan are battling with Napoli over the signing of Genoa’s 24-year-old midfielder Morten Frendrup, who they see as a more realistic target than Roma’s Manu Kone. (Gazzetta dello Sport)
– AC Milan are on the lookout for a defender in January, and top of their list — should they fail to land 41-year-old Thiago Silva from Fluminense — is Udinese center back Thomas Kristensen. The 23-year-old could be available for a fee of €20 million. (Gazzetta dello Sport)
– Juventus have made contact with Lecce over young Portuguese defender Tiago Gabriel. The Bianconeri could offer a loan player in order to fend off competition from Brentford, who are reported to be lining up a €20 million bid. (Tuttosport)
– Elche midfielder Rodrigo Mendoza is attracting interest from all over Europe, with Arsenal, Real Madrid, Valencia and Como all interested in the Spain U20 star. (Informacion)
– Real Betis, Dinamo Zagreb, Mainz and Bologna are all monitoring the situation of Girona goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic, who is in search of more minutes to ensure he stays as Croatia No.1 ahead of the 2026 World Cup. (Ekrem Konur)
– Spanish goalkeeper and free agent Vicente Guaita is closing in on a one-year deal with Parma, who are desperate for cover following an injury to regular No. 1 Zion Suzuki. (Fabrizio Romano)
– Roma are considering a move for Tottenham Hotspur forward Mathys Tel who is reported to be unhappy in London following his move from Bayern Munich. The Giallorossi are also tracking Marseille midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg. (Gazzetta dello Sport)
Sports
Texans upset Bills to shake up AFC playoff picture
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
The Buffalo Bills were upset by the Houston Texans on Thursday night, 23-19.
The game came down to a game-deciding Bills drive in the final two minutes. The Bills extended the drive by converting on a 4th and 27 with a lateral pass to Khalil Shakir. But the Bills could not convert on a 4th and 6 in the Texans red zone, when Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen threw a game-ending interception.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON FOXNEWS.COM
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass under pressure from Houston Texans defensive tackle Tommy Togiai (72) in the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
The Texans have now beaten the Bills for the second year in a row, and pulled it off with backup quarterback Davis Mills under center. Mills has improved to 3-0 as the team’s quarterback this year in place of the injured CJ Stroud.
Mills had one of his better games as a pro Thursday, passing for 153 yards with two touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Texans’ defense had eight sacks on Allen, and even forced him out of the game temporarily with a wrist concern in the first half.
With the win, the Texans move to 6-5 on the season and remain in the hunt for the AFC wild card race. The Texans are now just half a game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for the final wild card spot.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Houston Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. (51) and Denico Autry (96) celebrate after Anderson sacked Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen in the first half of an NFL football game Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
The Bills fell to 7-4 and lost ground to the New England Patriots in the AFC East race.
Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.
Sports
England opt to bat first against Australia in Ashes opener
PERTH: England elected to bat first against Australia in the Ashes series opener on Friday after captain Ben Stokes won the toss under clear blue skies at Perth Stadium.
After naming a 12-man squad for the match, the visitors opted for all-out pace in the starting side, leaving out off-spinner Shoaib Bashir in favour of Brydon Carse.
“We’ll try and get some runs on the board and then see where we are then,” Stokes said. “We’ve got to clear all of what we want to achieve out here in Australia, it starts today.”
Australia’s Steve Smith, standing in as captain for the injured Pat Cummins, struck an optimistic tone after losing the toss.
“Hopefully it seams all over the place this morning. I think the cracks will come into play, they seem to every year,” said Smith. “I think if we get the ball in the right areas this morning, there’ll be enough there for sure.”
Australia awarded first test caps to specialist opener Jake Weatherald and fast bowler Brendan Doggett, who put his hand up for selection with 13 wickets in two matches for South Australia in a dynamic start to the domestic Sheffield Shield season.
“He sort of glides through the crease, makes it look pretty easy,” pace spearhead Mitchell Starc said of Doggett.
“So, yeah, he’s got some air speed, he’s got some great skills, some swing, some seam and he’s coming off a hot streak, so hopefully that continues this week.”
Australia: Usman Khawaja, Jake Weatherald, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Cameron Green, Alex Carey, Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Scott Boland, Brendan Doggett
England: Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes, Jamie Smith, Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse, Jofra Archer, Mark Wood
-
Tech6 days agoNew carbon capture method uses water and pressure to remove CO₂ from emissions at half current costs
-
Politics1 week agoBritish-Pakistani honoured for transforming UK halal meat industry
-
Business6 days agoThese 9 Common Money Mistakes Are Eating Your Income
-
Sports5 days agoTexas A&M officer scolds South Carolina wide receiver after touchdown; department speaks out
-
Business6 days agoWhat’s behind Rachel Reeves’s hokey cokey on income tax rises?
-
Sports7 days agoApple scrapping MLS Season Pass service in ’26
-
Fashion7 days agoAfter London, Leeds and Newcastle, next stop Glasgow for busy Omnes
-
Tech1 week ago$25 Off Exclusive Blue Apron Coupon for November 2025

