Business
Breaking free from boom-bust cycles | The Express Tribune
ISLAMABAD:
There is a general perception that Pakistan’s economy is perpetually trapped in a “boom-and-bust” cycle and will likely remain so. This self-limiting belief has convinced successive governments and the public that any attempt at rapid economic growth is inevitably followed by crisis or stagnation.
It’s a mindset not unlike the myth of Sisyphus, the Greek king condemned by gods to eternally push a boulder uphill, only for it to roll back down just before reaching the summit. Similarly, economic pessimists dismiss every early sign of recovery as part of a futile, exhausting cycle, one that’s destined to end in failure.
The prevailing view is that when a new government comes to power, its first task is to secure an IMF bailout, which provides short-term stability and external financing. This fuels a consumption-led boom, pushing GDP growth to 5% or 6%.
Encouraged by early success, the government increases spending on subsidies and projects. But because this growth lacks export depth or productivity gains, the current account deficit widens, reserves deplete, and the country once again returns to the IMF, restarting the cycle. This raises two questions: does the data confirm that Pakistan has always been trapped in boom-bust cycles, and has it ever outperformed its peers over a sustained period? Both can be answered by comparing Pakistan’s record with India, often seen as a post-1990s growth model.
According to Statisticstimes.com, between 1960 and 2008, Pakistan’s per capita income was higher than India’s for 35 years, while India surpassed Pakistan for only 14 years. Despite volatility, Pakistan performed better overall for most of that period.
But 2008 marked a turning point. Pakistan’s exports began to stagnate, and its GDP growth rate also starting declining, averaging about 3% since then. In contrast, India, Bangladesh, and other regional peers averaged over 6% GDP growth. As a result, Pakistan’s per capita income, which was higher at $1,088 in 2008 compared to India’s $994, fell behind and by 2024 had trailed to $1,643 against India’s $2,300.
So, what changed in 2008? In addition to the global financial crisis, two external shocks hit developing countries: crude oil prices rose by 180% and food commodity prices by 60%. In Pakistan, a newly elected government responded by imposing steep regulatory duties on imports, reversing the trade liberalisation that had been gradually achieved since the 1990s. While oil and food prices normalised by 2009, those duties remained.
Since 2014, additional customs duties have further isolated Pakistan from the booming global trade flows. These new tariff barriers resulted in Pakistan being ranked as having “the second highest effective protection for domestic producers of final consumption goods in the world.” After nearly 17 years of setbacks from protectionist policies, the government has finally recognised that global isolation is unsustainable for a small economy. To lift people out of poverty, as China, Vietnam, and other countries have done, Pakistan must boost productivity and expand exports at a pace comparable to successful developing nations.
The recent budget marks an important step towards trade liberalisation. Though reforms will be phased in over the next five years, they offer hope of putting the country back on a sustainable growth path and reducing dependence on the IMF bailout packages. With the reconfiguration of global supply chains and the opening of the economy, Pakistan could begin to attract foreign investment at levels far beyond the current trickle.
This transition will not be easy. For almost two decades, large industries have been shielded from competition by high tariff walls. Many firms have failed to upgrade their plants or adopt modern technology, leading to higher energy consumption and lower productivity. Consequently, although Pakistan produces several engineering goods, such as household appliances, vehicles, and mobile phones, it cannot compete internationally. Instead, producers prefer to sell domestically, where tariff protection has so far guaranteed higher profits.
Furthermore, a deep-rooted fear of the boom-bust cycle will continue to constrain the economy unless excessive caution is replaced with a more balanced approach that allows for measured risk-taking. Monetary policy illustrates this mindset clearly: Pakistan now has the widest real interest rate gap among its peers, 11% compared to 5.5% in India, despite similar inflation of around 5%. This large disparity continues to stifle investment, slow the growth of large-scale manufacturing, and keep unemployment high.
It is time to acknowledge the economic missteps of the past 17 years and work to regain the lost market share while catching up in GDP growth with peer economies. Pakistan must break free from the self-limiting fear of boom-and-bust cycles and instead pursue bold, forward-looking economic policies.
The decision to re-engage with the global economy and privatise loss-making enterprises is a vital first step, but lasting success will depend on dismantling the regulatory barriers and attracting stronger investment to unlock growth and reduce dependence on external bailouts.
The writer is a member of the PM’s Committee on Tariff Reforms and previously served as Pakistan’s Ambassador to the WTO and FAO’s representative to the UN
Business
‘Benchmark for countries’: FATF hails India’s asset recovery efforts; notes ED’s role in returning defrauded funds – The Times of India
NEW DELHI: The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) acknowledged India’s efforts in recovering public assets lost to financial crimes, highlighting a money laundering case where land confiscated by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) was identified for the construction of a new airport that would serve the public.The acknowledgment comes in FATF’s latest 340-page report titled ‘Asset Recovery Guidance and Best Practices,’ cited by PTI, which documents how countries can strengthen their systems to trace, freeze, manage and return proceeds of crime. The Paris-based FATF sets global standards for combating money laundering and terrorist financing.“The report outlines practical measures for policy makers and practitioners to identify, trace, freeze, manage, confiscate and return assets derived from criminal activity…” it said. “The guidance serves as a benchmark for countries to enhance their national frameworks and align with emerging best practices,” the Enforcement Directorate (ED) said in a statement.The report references several ED investigations involving recovery and restoration of assets to victims. These include the alleged Rose Valley Ponzi scheme, a drug trafficking case where the US sought India’s assistance leading to seizure of Bitcoins worth Rs 130 crore, and coordination between the ED and Andhra Pradesh Police CID to restore Rs 6,000 crore to victims of an alleged investment fraud.Another case cited involves the alleged diversion of public funds in a Maharashtra-based cooperative bank. The ED restored benami assets worth Rs 280 crore to compensate affected account holders after auctioning the properties. According to officials, the report noted that the confiscated properties “have been identified as a site for construction of new airport, to build infrastructure in India for the benefit of society at large”.“The contribution of India and the ED to this global effort has been substantial and widely acknowledged,” the agency said, as quoted by PTI. It added that India’s legal framework under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), along with operational experience, shaped key aspects of the global guidance related to value-based confiscation, provisional attachment and inter-agency coordination.The ED said the inclusion of Indian case studies “underlines the credibility of India’s enforcement mechanisms and the value of its experience in shaping future global standards.”According to FATF, the guidance aims to bring “tangible” improvement in the confiscation and return of criminal assets by enforcement agencies worldwide.
Business
M&S reveals huge cost of cyber-attack which halted online sales
Marks and Spencer’s profits have fallen by more than half, following the major cyber attack it suffered earlier this year.
The hack impacted app and website orders, meaning online home and fashion sales plunged more than 40 per cent when the company had to stop taking orders.
However, the total stated impact so far is significantly lower than the £300m estimate the company gave in May.
M&S said the cost of the attack is set to total around £136m, including about another £34m in the final six months of its financial year, but it was able to recover £100m in its first half through an insurance payout for the hack.
In the aftermath of the attack, M&S announced 12 new food stores would open, including eight by summer 2026. An additional 550 jobs are expected to be created through the expansion.
The retail giant reported its underlying pre-tax profits tumbled 55.4 per cent to £184.1m in the six months to 27 September.
On a reported basis, profits were almost wiped out, plunging to £3.4m from £391.9m a year ago.
The group said sales in its fashion arm dropped by 16.4% as the cyber attack wrought havoc, with sales online down 42.9% and 3.4% lower across its stores.
The high street stalwart stopped all online sales for around six weeks and suffered empty shelves due to disruption to its logistics systems after hackers targeted the business around the Easter weekend.
Customer personal data – which could have included names, email addresses, postal addresses and dates of birth – was also taken by hackers.
Stuart Machin, chief executive of Marks and Spencer, said: “The first half of this year was an extraordinary moment in time for M&S.
“However, the underlying strength of our business and robust financial foundations gave us the resilience to face into the challenge and deal with it. We are now getting back on track.”
He said the group also faced cost increases of more than £50 million from the national insurance hike in April over its first half, but that he expects profits to be “at least in line with last year” in the final six months of its financial year as it ramps up its cost-cutting target to £600 million.
“The retail sector is facing significant headwinds… but there is much within our control and accelerating our cost-reduction programme will help to mitigate this,” he added.
In May, Mr Machin said the attack, which was caused by “human error”, was expected to cost the company around £300 million, before insurance claims or cost reductions to offset the impact.
M&S reported a surge in activity after its clothing, home and beauty sales returned online but some competitors such as Next saw market share grow during the period of disruption, suggesting some online shoppers went elsewhere.
Additional reporting by PA
Business
M&S profits halved after cyber hack left shelves empty and hit sales
M&S profits halved after it was hit by a cyber-attack which left shoppers unable to buy online from the company for months.
The British high street chain’s boss said the April attack was “an extraordinary moment in time” as it revealed it made £184m adjusted profit before tax for the first half of the year, compared with £413m the year prior.
As well as disrupting its online business, the hack affected the company in-store too, leaving some shelves bare in the weeks after M&S was targeted.
M&S said it had received £100m of insurance money related to combating the cyber-attack, around the amount which the incident had cost it so far, though it expects further costs in the coming months.
The fashion and food company was forced to suspend online orders for almost two months, with click and collect suspended for almost four months.
Revealing its financial figures for the six months to September, M&S said “the underlying strength” of the chain meant it was “getting back on track” and expected full-year profits to be in-line with last year.
One analyst told BBC’s Today programme that it was reassuring that the main part of M&S’s business, homewares and fashion, only saw sales decline around 16%.
“Given that they were offline for most of the trading period and really only came back online for their click and collect in August, it’s pretty, pretty resilient,” said Judith MacKenzie, head of Downing Fund Managers.
She said it was “outstanding” that its food sales were up 7.8% over that time despite it being “a pretty horrendous period” for the company.
The fact that costs related to the attack were lower than expected was positive, said Lucy Rumbold, equity research analyst at Quilter.
M&S had earlier estimated that the attack would cost it around £300m.
On a call after the results, chief executive Stuart Machin said: “in May, we anticipated the material impact of the incident on group operating profit to be around £300m this financial year, and we are broadly in line with that”.
He said there were costs from managing the impact, including more IT staffing, and increased food wastage as the firm switched to manual processing during the cyber attack.
Ms Rumbold said there was a view from investors that the disruption caused by the hack “was a one-off”.
“Normal trading can therefore resume and the positive story M&S had going prior to the cyber-attack remains in place.”
M&S said in the second half of the year it forecast profits would recover to the levels seen in 2024, “as the residual effects of the incident continue to reduce in the coming months.”
Mr Machin said the firm was looking forward to a profitable Christmas period, and said sales were going well of its much-loved rose mulled wine, and men’s washable tuxedos.
While profits at M&S tumbled, other retailers have seen a boost in sales as people turned to them for shopping after the cyber attack.
Next continued to see sales overperform, with its latest results in October seeing a 10.5% increase in sales. However, that was not as good as earlier in the year when it had seen “exceptional performance” in the immediate aftermath of the M&S cyber attack.
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