Business
Breaking free from boom-bust cycles | The Express Tribune
ISLAMABAD:
There is a general perception that Pakistan’s economy is perpetually trapped in a “boom-and-bust” cycle and will likely remain so. This self-limiting belief has convinced successive governments and the public that any attempt at rapid economic growth is inevitably followed by crisis or stagnation.
It’s a mindset not unlike the myth of Sisyphus, the Greek king condemned by gods to eternally push a boulder uphill, only for it to roll back down just before reaching the summit. Similarly, economic pessimists dismiss every early sign of recovery as part of a futile, exhausting cycle, one that’s destined to end in failure.
The prevailing view is that when a new government comes to power, its first task is to secure an IMF bailout, which provides short-term stability and external financing. This fuels a consumption-led boom, pushing GDP growth to 5% or 6%.
Encouraged by early success, the government increases spending on subsidies and projects. But because this growth lacks export depth or productivity gains, the current account deficit widens, reserves deplete, and the country once again returns to the IMF, restarting the cycle. This raises two questions: does the data confirm that Pakistan has always been trapped in boom-bust cycles, and has it ever outperformed its peers over a sustained period? Both can be answered by comparing Pakistan’s record with India, often seen as a post-1990s growth model.
According to Statisticstimes.com, between 1960 and 2008, Pakistan’s per capita income was higher than India’s for 35 years, while India surpassed Pakistan for only 14 years. Despite volatility, Pakistan performed better overall for most of that period.
But 2008 marked a turning point. Pakistan’s exports began to stagnate, and its GDP growth rate also starting declining, averaging about 3% since then. In contrast, India, Bangladesh, and other regional peers averaged over 6% GDP growth. As a result, Pakistan’s per capita income, which was higher at $1,088 in 2008 compared to India’s $994, fell behind and by 2024 had trailed to $1,643 against India’s $2,300.
So, what changed in 2008? In addition to the global financial crisis, two external shocks hit developing countries: crude oil prices rose by 180% and food commodity prices by 60%. In Pakistan, a newly elected government responded by imposing steep regulatory duties on imports, reversing the trade liberalisation that had been gradually achieved since the 1990s. While oil and food prices normalised by 2009, those duties remained.
Since 2014, additional customs duties have further isolated Pakistan from the booming global trade flows. These new tariff barriers resulted in Pakistan being ranked as having “the second highest effective protection for domestic producers of final consumption goods in the world.” After nearly 17 years of setbacks from protectionist policies, the government has finally recognised that global isolation is unsustainable for a small economy. To lift people out of poverty, as China, Vietnam, and other countries have done, Pakistan must boost productivity and expand exports at a pace comparable to successful developing nations.
The recent budget marks an important step towards trade liberalisation. Though reforms will be phased in over the next five years, they offer hope of putting the country back on a sustainable growth path and reducing dependence on the IMF bailout packages. With the reconfiguration of global supply chains and the opening of the economy, Pakistan could begin to attract foreign investment at levels far beyond the current trickle.
This transition will not be easy. For almost two decades, large industries have been shielded from competition by high tariff walls. Many firms have failed to upgrade their plants or adopt modern technology, leading to higher energy consumption and lower productivity. Consequently, although Pakistan produces several engineering goods, such as household appliances, vehicles, and mobile phones, it cannot compete internationally. Instead, producers prefer to sell domestically, where tariff protection has so far guaranteed higher profits.
Furthermore, a deep-rooted fear of the boom-bust cycle will continue to constrain the economy unless excessive caution is replaced with a more balanced approach that allows for measured risk-taking. Monetary policy illustrates this mindset clearly: Pakistan now has the widest real interest rate gap among its peers, 11% compared to 5.5% in India, despite similar inflation of around 5%. This large disparity continues to stifle investment, slow the growth of large-scale manufacturing, and keep unemployment high.
It is time to acknowledge the economic missteps of the past 17 years and work to regain the lost market share while catching up in GDP growth with peer economies. Pakistan must break free from the self-limiting fear of boom-and-bust cycles and instead pursue bold, forward-looking economic policies.
The decision to re-engage with the global economy and privatise loss-making enterprises is a vital first step, but lasting success will depend on dismantling the regulatory barriers and attracting stronger investment to unlock growth and reduce dependence on external bailouts.
The writer is a member of the PM’s Committee on Tariff Reforms and previously served as Pakistan’s Ambassador to the WTO and FAO’s representative to the UN
Business
Goldman Sachs bond traders stumbled as Wall Street rivals thrived: ‘A fire is being lit under’ them
David Solomon, CEO Goldman Sachs, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 22nd, 2026.
Oscar Molina | CNBC
When Goldman Sachs executives were asked about disappointing results in the firm’s fixed income division this week, they made it sound as though the trading environment was simply not in their favor.
Fixed income revenue fell 10% in the first quarter, coming in $910 million below analysts’ expectations, according to StreetAccount data. It was an unusually large miss for one of Goldman’s flagship Wall Street businesses.
“It was basically just a function of the overall environment making markets,” CFO Denis Coleman told an analyst on Monday after the bank’s earning report. “We remain actively engaged with clients, but our performance in rates and mortgages was relatively lower.”
But as nearly all of Goldman’s rivals, including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, posted blockbuster results for first-quarter fixed income in the days that followed, one thing became clear to Wall Street: Goldman Sachs’ vaunted fixed income traders had underperformed.
JPMorgan saw fixed income trading revenue jump 21% to $7.1 billion, the bank’s second-biggest haul ever. Morgan Stanley, where fixed income is less a priority than equities, posted a 29% jump in the bond business. Citigroup saw bond trading revenue jump 13% to $5.2 billion.
Since before the 2008 financial crisis, when Lloyd Blankfein led Goldman Sachs, the firm’s fixed income division had been the envy of Wall Street. Goldman was known for its trading prowess, a reputation forged in periods of dislocation when its desks generated outsized gains. The bank’s identity as a trader’s firm — one expected to outperform in turbulent times — has endured in the decade-plus since.
That makes the first-quarter stumble particularly notable.
“It seems that something went wrong at Goldman in fixed income,” said veteran Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo, who called the bank’s results “worst-in-class.”
“I’d imagine that at Goldman, a fire is being lit under the traders, managers and risk overseers in FICC after such an underperformance,” Mayo said in an interview with CNBC, using an acronym standing for fixed income, currencies and commodities, the formal name for that business.
The prevailing theory is that Goldman was caught offsides on trades tied to interest rates in the first quarter, according to several market participants who asked for anonymity to speak candidly.
That’s because of the positioning that many Wall Street firms had at the start of this year, when markets were expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice in 2026, these people said.
But after the price of oil surged with the advent of the Iran war, roiling expectations for inflation, the markets began pricing those cuts out, with some investors even bracing for the possibility of rate hikes this year.
Fixed income was the sole blemish on a quarter in which Goldman Sachs exceeded expectations handily, thanks to the firm’s equities traders and investment bankers. Despite the earnings beat, the firm’s shares dropped as much as about 4% on Monday following the report.
Goldman Sachs declined to comment. But on Monday, CEO David Solomon sought to put the quarter’s performance into context:
“When I look at the scale and the diversity of the business, it’s performing very, very well,” Solomon said during the company’s conference call. “Some quarters, it’s going to be stronger here, stronger there.”
Business
Pakistan considering buying LNG on spot market to offset supply disruptions caused by Iran war: petroleum minister – SUCH TV
Pakistan is considering buying liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the spot market to offset supply disruptions caused by the Iran war, but would favour government-to-government deals to avoid having to pay steep premiums, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik has told Reuters.
Qatar’s force majeure forced Pakistan to make costly spot purchases or find alternative fuels ahead of summer demand.
Spot LNG cargoes have surged to $20 to $30 per mmBtu amid the Middle East conflict, Malik says, adding that purchases would depend on whether prices are acceptable to the power sector, including under existing government-to-government arrangements with Azerbaijan’s Socar.
Pakistan has also been routing some crude supplies via Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with Malik saying insurance costs on that route were lower than routes crossing or near Hormuz.
Pakistan imports nearly all of its oil, much of it via the Strait of Hormuz, and remains exposed to supply shocks despite cutting its LNG reliance in recent years, as gas is still needed to meet the country’s peak summer power demand.
It has begun commercial output from its highest-ever producing oil and gas well, as it shores up domestic supply.
“We have arrangements in place to meet domestic and industrial requirements,” Malik said, adding that gas disruptions have not led to major curbs, with eight of 10 fertiliser plants operating.
Officials are also considering the use of costlier fuels such as furnace oil to limit load shedding, although at the expense of higher tariffs. Malik warned that prolonged shortages could threaten food security.
The Baragzai X-01 well in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is producing about 15,000 barrels of oil per day and 45 million cubic feet of gas, with output expected to rise further, the state-run operator Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) said.
The well could reach up to 25,000 barrels per day and 60 million cubic feet per day of gas, making it Pakistan’s highest-producing well, and may contribute around 10 per cent of crude output while cutting the country’s import bill by about $329 million annually, OGDC said.
Business
For cruise lines, Iran conflict and oil prices threaten to dent profits
The Carnival Miracle cruise ship is anchored in the Pacific Ocean near Kailua Bay during a 15-day cruise, in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii, on Jan. 14, 2024.
Kevin Carter | Getty Images
The global cruise industry is reporting record demand and renewed consumer enthusiasm, but the leaders helming the world’s largest cruise companies say the sector is also facing some of the most complex challenges it has seen in decades.
“We are not an alternative vacation anymore. We are a vacation,” Carnival Corporation CEO Josh Weinstein said during a keynote panel Tuesday at Seatrade Global, a cruise industry conference.
As demand rises, passengers are getting younger; one-third of cruise travelers are now under 40, according to the 2026 State of the Cruise Industry report released by Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA). One-third of trips are multi-generational, often families traveling together. And nearly a third of cruisers take vacations by ship multiple times a year, according to the report.
The cruise industry hosted 37 million passengers worldwide last year and anticipates reaching 42 million annually by 2029, CLIA found.
“That mainstream demand sets us up very well for volatility,” Weinstein said.
A resilient business in an uncertain world
At least six cruise ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf by the impasse at the Strait of Hormuz. One of them is the MSC Euribia.
Though roughly 1,500 passengers were safely evacuated amid Dubai airport shutdowns and missile warnings after the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran in late February, there are still some crew on board to maintain the vessel.
“Obviously, we live day by day. The situation is very fluid,” said MSC Cruises Executive Chairman Pierfrancesco Vago during the Seatrade Global keynote.
Already the shutdown of marine traffic in the Strait has disrupted itineraries in the Middle East and southern Europe. Threats of blockades, mines on the sea floor and on-and-off-again negotiations are keeping cruise executives guessing about when they can move their ships.
“Morning is one thing, lunchtime is another, dinner is another again,” Vago said of the numerous and often conflicting announcements from government leaders. “We need to stay cool and actually be ready to move out as soon as the possibility and opportunity comes back.”
Despite these challenges, cruise executives argue the industry has never been better positioned to absorb shocks.
“Every crisis we’ve faced — financial, geopolitical or health-related — we adapted,” Carnival’s Weinstein said. “There’s no reason to believe it will be different this time.”
Fuel costs, sustainability and the push to use less
Fuel price volatility has once again put energy strategy front and center for the cruise industry, particularly for Carnival, which does not hedge fuel prices.
“Nobody asks us about hedging when prices are low,” Weinstein said. “But our strategy has been consistent: use less fuel.”
The cruise industry aims to have net zero emissions by 2050, but CEOs agree that they can’t achieve that goal solely by conserving fuel.
Industry leaders see biofuels, green methanol and synthetic liquid natural gas (produced by combining captured carbon with hydrogen) as the most promising solutions to meet their fuel needs.
Royal Caribbean Group CEO Jason Liberty said cruise lines are already investing hundreds of millions of dollars annually in technology and energy innovation, but availability of alternative fuels remains the bottleneck.
“It’s not about what we want to use,” Liberty said. “It’s about what’s scalable and available.”
“We’re going to have heavy competition with other sectors for those fuels as well. There’s no guarantee we get them,” added Bud Darr, president and CEO of Cruise Lines International Association.
Tailwinds for growth
Even as the industry navigates choppy seas, cruise companies are looking for their next avenues for growth.
Technological advances in artificial intelligence are being used to reduce food waste, plot routes and itineraries and increase efficiency. Cruise line executives say the most important application is to reduce friction in the guest experience.
“A more flexible work environment has been a big demand driver for us,” Liberty said. Most Royal Caribbean ships now host a Starlink connection for fast internet aboard.
Private destinations, the exclusive ports or islands owned or controlled by a cruise line, continue to be a priority for investment. Royal Caribbean, for instance, currently has three private destinations on its itineraries but will have eight by 2028.
It’s developing a major land-based hub in Puerto Williams, Chile, to reduce or eliminate the amount of time passengers to Antarctica have to spend transiting the punishing seas of the Drake Passage.
And the luxury segment, though a small percentage of the overall industry, is growing rapidly. Customers are increasingly interested in exploring health, wellness and longevity — and those trends are showing up in their vacation habits, too.
Smaller ships and river cruising accommodate specialized interests in eco-tourism, off-the-beaten path (not yet discovered by social media influencers) locales and culinary or artistic aficionados.
Social-media driven demand in tourism has also sparked backlash from some destinations, overwhelmed by the crowds. The cruise industry is working with destinations on what it calls managed, predictable tourism.
Vago said MSC worked with Dubrovnik, Croatia, for example, to coordinate the flow of visitors to the medieval town, which wants the tourism spending but without destruction of quality of life for residents.
“Many of these coastal communities actually appreciate that. We plan in advance. We create itineraries three years in advance,” Vago said.
“The strength of this industry is its ability to evolve without losing its soul,” Liberty said. “That soul is hospitality.”
Leadership change and fresh perspective
At Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, the challenge for new CEO John Chidsey is righting the ship.
In his first earnings call, just days after taking the helm, Chidsey acknowledged the company had committed numerous missteps.
Margins are under pressure. Shares have been volatile. Critics have questioned a push to expand cruise itineraries in the Caribbean before Norwegian’s private island was fully completed.
Earlier this year, Elliott Investment Management took an activist stake in Norwegian, which may have provided impetus for the board to make a leadership change.
Chidsey told CNBC Elliott’s goals align with his own and that he intends to create a culture of accountability and urgency where teams are working together rather than separated into silos.

The Seatrade conference was a cruise industry debut for Chidsey, formerly the CEO of Subway, Burger King and Avis.
When asked what a “sandwich guy knows about cruising,” Chidsey didn’t miss a beat, insisting he’s a “turnaround guy not a sandwich guy.”
“I knew nothing about fast food when I went there. I think having a fresh set of eyes is really what Norwegian needs. And it’s all about execution,” he said.
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