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Third-quarter earnings are indicating a divided economy

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Third-quarter earnings are indicating a divided economy


A Taco Bell restaurant in El Cerrito, California, US, on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

With more consumer companies preparing to report third-quarter earnings this week, Wall Street will be watching for signs of a bifurcated or “K-shaped” economy as consumers diverge in their spending behaviors.

There have been increasing signals that wealthier Americans are spending more while lower-income Americans are significantly paring back their spending. Lower-income consumers have been hit hardest by rising inflation and escalating prices on essentials, with September’s consumer price index report indicating a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%.

Shortly after the CPI report was released, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its second straight interest rate cut, lowering its benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%.

Meanwhile, the country is entering the fifth week of the government shutdown, with many federal workers going without pay.

The Census Bureau estimated there were 35.9 million people in poverty in 2024, the most recent available data, with the weighted average poverty threshold for a family of four coming in at $32,130. The median household income, meanwhile was $83,730 last year, according to the bureau.

The top 10% of households saw their income increase 4.2% between 2023 and 2024, but there was no meaningful change for the bottom 10% of households, the bureau said in September. There were approximately 33 million households in the top 10% of earners and another 33 million in the bottom 10% of earners as of last year.

Consumers with the highest purchasing power have benefited from stock market rallies and rising home values. Data from JPMorgan‘s Cost of Living Survey found that higher-income consumers reported stronger economic confidence readings for the next year.

Recent earnings reports from companies touching all corners of the economy have indicated the K-shaped trend is beginning to take hold. This week, companies like Yum Brands, McDonald’s, E.l.f. Beauty, Tapestry and Under Armour are preparing to release quarterly earnings reports and could report similar trends.

Last week, Chipotle reported it’s seeing consumers who make less than $100,000 a year, which represents roughly 40% of the company’s customer base, spending less frequently due to concerns about the economy and inflation. CEO Scott Boatwright said the company is seeing “consistent macroeconomic pressures” with a 0.8% decline in traffic for the quarter.

Coca-Cola said in its third-quarter earnings that pricier products like Topo Chico sparkling water and Fairlife protein shakes are driving its growth. Procter & Gamble reported similar results, saying wealthier customers are buying more from club retailers, which sell bigger pack sizes, while lower-income shoppers are significantly pulling back.

And some of the companies reporting this week have already indicated they may be seeing similar behaviors. In early September, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the chain’s expansion of its value menu was due to a “two-tier economy.”

“Traffic for lower-income consumers is down double digits, and it’s because people are either choosing to skip a meal … or they’re choosing to just eat at home,” he said.

The trend isn’t limited to just food and beverage, either. In the autos world, consumers who can afford to buy new vehicles are on a spree, while those who are more price constrained are sitting out. Defaults and repossessions are on the rise while the average price for a new vehicle is setting records.

And in the service industry, Hilton earlier this month reported that it saw a drop in revenue for its affordable brands while its luxury offerings performed exceedingly well. Still, CEO Christopher Nassetta told CNBC last month that he doesn’t expect bifurcation to last much longer.

“My own belief is that as we look into the fourth quarter and particularly into next year, we’re going to see a very big shift in those dynamics, meaning, I don’t think you’re going to continue to have this bifurcation,” Nassetta said. “That’s not to say I think the high end is going to get worse or bad. I just think the middle and the low end [are] going to move up.”

Correction: This article has been updated to correct the month of the CPI report.



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EBay rejects £41.4 billion GameStop takeover offer

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EBay rejects £41.4 billion GameStop takeover offer



EBay has turned down a 56 billion US dollar (£41.4 billion) takeover move from GameStop, labelling the proposal as “neither credible or attractive”.

GameStop boss Ryan Cohen launched an unsolicited offer of 125 dollars (£92.40) per share – half in cash and half in GameStop stock – to eBay shareholders last week.

However, the online marketplace’s board confirmed on Tuesday that it had now rejected the move.

In a letter, eBay chairman Paul Pressler said it reviewed the offer but believes that eBay is a “strong, resilient business”.

He added: “We have sharpened our strategic focus, strengthened execution, enhanced our marketplace and seller experience, and consistently returned capital to shareholders.

“With its differentiated global marketplace and a clear strategy, eBay’s board is confident that the company, under its current management team, is well-positioned to continue to drive sustainable growth, execute with discipline, and deliver long-term value for our shareholders.”

GameStop, which runs around 1,600 shops around the US, said it started accumulating eBay shares earlier this year and currently has a 5% stake.

Mr Cohen had previously indicated he would take his proposal directly to eBay shareholders if the company’s board rejected the deal.



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India’s retail inflation jumps to over one-year high at 3.48 per cent in April – The Times of India

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India’s retail inflation jumps to over one-year high at 3.48 per cent in April – The Times of India


India’s retail inflation rose to a more than one-year high of 3.48 per cent in April from 3.40 per cent in March, driven mainly by higher food prices, according to data released by ministry of statistics & programme implementation on Monday. Food inflation, measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), also accelerated to 4.20 per cent in April from 3.87 per cent last month, indicating broader price pressures across household essentials. Meanwhile, inflation in rural areas stood at 3.74 per cent, higher than the 3.16 per cent recorded in urban India.Among key items, silver jewellery recorded the sharpest inflation at 144.34 per cent in April, though slightly lower than 148.42 per cent in March. Gold, diamond and platinum jewellery inflation also remained elevated at 40.72 per cent. Among key food items, tomato prices surged 35.28 per cent year-on-year in April, while potato and onion prices remained in deflation at minus 23.69 per cent and minus 17.67 per cent, respectively. The personal care and miscellaneous goods category recorded the sharpest inflation at 17.66 per cent, while transport inflation remained largely flat at minus 0.01 per cent. India’s retail inflation has now risen for the second consecutive month, inching closer to the Reserve Bank of India’s 4 per cent medium-term target. The RBI last month projected CPI inflation for 2026-27 at 4.6 per cent and warned that elevated global energy prices due to the Middle East conflict, along with possible El Niño conditions affecting the monsoon, could pose upside risks to inflation.



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From buying less gold to cashing in old reserves: How bullion industry plans to cut India’s import bill – The Times of India

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From buying less gold to cashing in old reserves: How bullion industry plans to cut India’s import bill – The Times of India


As rupee continues to breach multiple record lows, pressure on India’s balance of payments is growing. To protect foreign exchange reserves and help stabilise trade balance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged people to cut down on gold purchases.But if not buying new gold, could household gold be turned into working capital instead?PM Modi’s call has brought fresh attention to an old issue, with major bullion and jewellery bodies once again suggesting steps to the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reduce gold imports, use more household gold, and better manage how imported gold is used.Their proposals include limiting imported gold mainly for jewellery exports, bringing jewellers into gold monetisation schemes, making gold metal loans (GML) work more like bank cash credit, and reducing tax on interest earned from gold deposits, ET reported.Meanwhile, India’s gold imports jumped 24% to a record $71.9 billion in 2025-26, with more than 721 tonnes imported during the financial year.What are the proposals:Under the system proposed by the Precious Metals Refineries Forum (PMRF), imported gold would be channelled as one-year gold metal loans (GML) for jewellery exporters, while gold collected from household deposits, once refined locally, would be used to meet domestic demand through jewellers and retailers.The model suggests that depositors could earn 2-2.5%, with GML interest rates set at around 3-4%.Industry players cited by ET have pointed out that some tax changes will be needed to make this work, especially when physical gold is converted into electronic gold receipts (EGR).“The 3% notional loss of GST amount on conversion puts off customers. The government can always recover the tax when EGR is converted back into physical gold for selling. Concessions on capital gains when deposit is encashed on maturity along with income tax relief on accrued interest could be considered,” James Jose, president of PMRF told the financial daily.Why past gold schemes failed Many in the industry believe earlier gold monetisation schemes did not succeed because jewellers were not properly included and because gold deposits and loans did not work together like a banking system. Without that, institutions accepting gold deposits face major risks from price swings and currency changes.This is why trade bodies are calling for a more complete system with bank support, secure vaults in multiple locations, renewable GMLs like working capital, and proper collateral safeguards.Indian households are estimated to hold over 30,000 tonnes of gold, but despite repeated discussions during times of trade deficit and capital outflows, there is still no strong institutional system to bring this gold into the formal economy.Commenting on why earlier schemes did not work, Rajesh Rokde, chairman of All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) said, “I feel the schemes did not take off because jewellers were not part of them. About 10-20% of the gold with families would be in bullion form. Most don’t sell, expecting prices to rise. If some gold can be tapped, if necessary purified and converted into digital gold in a system where jewellers are involved, imports would dip significantly,” According to one representation, collection and purity testing centres (Cptcs) and related agencies have said that collected gold can be processed within 48 hours before being moved by logistics firms to secure bank-approved vaults.Sources said members of the Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) held discussions with central bank officials last week on exports and monetisation, though the IBJA spokesman declined to share details.



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