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Cava, Chipotle and other fast-casual restaurant chains are finally hit by consumer slowdown

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Cava, Chipotle and other fast-casual restaurant chains are finally hit by consumer slowdown


Cava stock tumbled 16% in afternoon trading on Wednesday, making it the latest fast-casual chain to feel Wall Street’s wrath after reporting disappointing quarterly sales.

A year ago, eateries like Chipotle Mexican Grill and Cava were reporting double-digit same-store sales growth, even as the broader restaurant industry posted falling traffic and slumping sales. But times have changed. This spring, fast-casual chains saw foot traffic decline as sales slowed down or even shrank.

To explain the downturn, executives have said that diners are “cautious,” in the words of Sweetgreen CEO Jonathan Neman, or dealing with an economic “fog,” according to Cava CFO Tricia Tolivar.

And just as diners are finding reasons why to cut back on their Shake Shack burgers or Chipotle bowls, investors are trimming their fast-casual holdings after rewarding the companies last year for outperforming the rest of the industry. So far in 2025, Shake Shack shares have fallen 16%; Chipotle stock has slid 28%; Cava shares have tumbled 37%; and Sweetgreen stock has plunged 70%. Of the notable publicly traded fast-casual chains, only Wingstop has managed to stay in the green this year, with gains of 20%.

More broadly, investors have grown more cautious about betting on any restaurants, given weak traffic trends and concerns about consumer spending, according to a research note on Sunday from UBS. Even fast-food companies have struggled with the traffic declines and sluggish sales growth, despite their historical reputation as a safer bet during economic uncertainty.

While some fast-casual chains flagged company-specific reasons for their weaker-than-expected results, executives also said that economic uncertainty is weighing on consumers – and hurting their sales.

Generally, fast-casual diners are higher income and more likely to have white-collar jobs. However, Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright blamed a pullback from low-income consumers for the chain’s same-store sales declines of 4% in the second quarter.

“You have to look no further than what’s going with our competitors with snack occasions or $5 meals. That’s where the consumer is drifting towards, [with] value as a price point, because of low consumer sentiment. I think as sentiment improves, the business will improve. I think that’s probably the biggest headwind we face,” he told analysts on the company’s earnings conference call on June 23.

The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment slid in April to 52.2, one of its lowest-ever recorded readings. It held at that level in May before rising in June to 60.7.

Fast-casual chains are seeing consumers’ economic anxieties in their own research, too.

“Through our regular consumer research, we hear concerns about elevated prices, future job prospects and general anxiety about the future,” Wingstop CEO Michael Skipworth said on the company’s earnings conference call in late July.

The chicken wing chain reported same-store sales declines of 1.9% for the quarter, a dramatic reversal compared to its growth of 28.7% in the year-ago period.

On the company’s earnings conference call on Thursday, Sweetgreen’s Neman said that the chain saw “a more cautious consumer environment starting in April” — coinciding with the drop in consumer sentiment. A “subdued industry backdrop,” particularly in several of the chain’s biggest urban markets, contributed to Sweetgreen’s “really, really rough quarter,” according to Neman.

That’s one reason why the salad chain reported a steeper-than-expected decline in its same-store sales and cut its full-year forecast for the second straight quarter. Sweetgreen executives also attributed the weak quarterly performance to a tough comparison to last year’s steak launch and the transition of its loyalty program.

To improve its value perception among customers, Sweetgreen is increasing its chicken and tofu portions by 25%, improving its chicken and salmon recipes and implementing some promotional pricing, like $13 menu bowl drops for its loyalty program members.

As for Cava, the company had been wowing investors with impressive same-store sales growth since its initial public offering two years ago. But this quarter, the Mediterranean chain reported same-store sales growth of 2.1%, well below Wall Street projections of 6.1%. Executives said that it faced difficult comparisons to the year-ago period’s same-store sales growth of 14.4%, which was fueled by its own steak launch and strong demand at newer restaurant locations that waned this year.

“Cava isn’t so special after all. After blowing out same store sales in Q1 of 10.8%, it fell in line with the industry at 2.1% in Q2. It’s not negative, so that’s helpful,” Tracey Ryniec, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said.

Cava executives also acknowledged that economic concerns are weighing on diners.

“Certainly, we’re operating in a fluid macroeconomic environment and it’s one that sort of creates a fog for consumers where things are changing constantly and it’s hard to see the clear. And during those times, they tend to step off of the gas,” Tolivar said on the company’s conference call on Tuesday evening.

Still, Cava isn’t seeing consumers trade down to cheaper protein options, or experiencing any other deeper business concerns, co-founder and CEO Brett Schulman said. And as it enters the third quarter, its same-store sales have improved, Tolivar said.

And Cava isn’t the only fast-casual eatery anticipating a return to form in the latter half of the year, especially as consumer sentiment improved in June and July.

Chipotle said its traffic started growing again as the burrito chain exited the quarter and continued into July. Sweetgreen has seen “modest” improvement in its same-store sales so far into the third quarter, according to Neman.

And while Wingstop executives said that they’re still seeing weaker consumer demand, the chain is facing easier comparisons to last year’s performance.



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Pine Labs, Groww & more: Top stocks to watch on April 16 – The Times of India

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Pine Labs, Groww & more: Top stocks to watch on April 16 – The Times of India


Citigroup initiated its coverage of Pine Labs with a buy rating and a target price of Rs 235. Analysts said that India’s payments fintech is on a monetization improvement trajectory, with leading players increasingly entrenched in respective core areas of leadership. While product, services and distribution build-outs into comprehensive plays will continue across the fintech ecosystem, large players don’t face significant disruption risks owing to: Across-the-board profitability push; rising regulatory costs and compliance requirements; and stickiness borne out of integration into enterprise business workflows. Further, while consumer payments have seen flux in competitive positioning in the past decade, there have been relatively fewer changes in positioning and leadership within segments in merchant payments.BoFA Securities has initiated its coverage of Groww (Billionbrains Garage Ventures) with a buy rating and a target price of Rs 235. Analysts said Groww is well positioned to capitalize on India’s retail investing tailwinds and they expect compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue at 30% over FY26-FY28. The company produces best-in-class profitability with further upside from operating leverage. Analysts have valued Groww at 39x FY28E price-to-earnings. They, however, said that the near-term risks for the stock are a weak capital market performance and the expiry of the six-month lock-in of shares post-IPO.Elara Capital initiated its coverage of Jindal Saw with a buy rating and a target price of Rs 280. Analysts said earnings recovery is expected over FY27–FY28, driven by water, and oil & gas demand. The company’s order book is at an all-time high, indicating strong visibility. They also feel Jal Jeevan Mission spending revival to drive domestic pipe demand, while the global pipeline capex is supported by energy security concerns. Analysts also pointed out that exports are rising, with diversification reducing dependence on domestic capex. The company’s capacity expansion to support margins and operating leverage. They feel the stock’s valuations are attractive, with rerating potential driven by execution and growth.Jefferies has downgraded Indus Towers to underperform from buy with a target price cut to Rs 375 from Rs 530. Analysts downgrade the stock due to site-renewal risks bunched up over second half of 2026 (H2CY26) and first half of 2027 (H1CY27) which could impact revenues and growth. Elevated capex levels due to higher growth and maintenance capex which will impact earnings growth as well free cash flow and payouts. They cut Indus Towers’ revenue and profit after tax (PAT) estimates by 2-6% to factor renewal risks post which stock offers 3% EPS growth and a 4% yield. They said risks on growth outlook should weigh on re-rating potential too.Kotak Institutional Equities has a buy on Ujjivan SFB with a target price of Rs 72. Analysts said that the RBI has returned Ujjivan SFB’s application for a universal bank license, citing need for further loan portfolio diversification. While the outcome is clearly not favourable, the regulator has flagged no concerns relating to governance, compliance or operational soundness. Analysts said their investment thesis did not factor in any benefit from a potential transition to a universal bank. Hence, they maintained a buy but remained watchful of any sharp changes in asset mix strategy in response to RBI’s feedback.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)



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Geelong fire: Blaze at Australian oil refinery to impact petrol supplies

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Geelong fire: Blaze at Australian oil refinery to impact petrol supplies



The fire has deepened fears over the nation’s petrol supplies amid a global crunch.



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SIA chief set to meet Tata Sons and AI chairman N Chandrasekaran today – The Times of India

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SIA chief set to meet Tata Sons and AI chairman N Chandrasekaran today – The Times of India


MUMBAI/ NEW DELHI: Air India’s mounting losses and operational issues are leading to serious concerns among both its parent groups. Goh Choon Phong, CEO of Singapore Airlines (SIA, which has a 25.1% stake in AI) is in Mumbai and is expected to meet Tata Sons and AI chairman N Chandrasekaran on Thursday.The meeting comes in the backdrop of AI scouting for a new CEO after the resignation of incumbent Campbell Wilson. The airline is also staring at a loss of over Rs 22,500 crore in FY 2026 and has sought fresh fund infusion from Tata and SIA. The Ahmedabad crash last June and the continued closure of Pakistan airspace since Operation Sindoor, followed by US-Iran war since Feb 28, made things worse for the already deep-in-losses Maharaja.AI did not comment on the likely losses for last fiscal and whether it has sought fund infusion from the promoters. While reviving AI, which spent its last few years as a PSU in abject penury till Tata acquired it along with AI Express on Jan 27, 2022, was never expected to be easy, the slow pace of change and mounting losses, have now put the strain on promoters.While SIA is seeing its profits decline due to AI losses, Tata Sons is under pressure over mounting losses of its new unlisted ventures, especially AI and Tata Digital. Addressing their concerns and sending a clear message to AI employees, Chandrasekaran had last week told them to “be precise on costs and remain grounded in the reality of the situation”.People in the know said Tatas knew turning around AI would be tough. That’s why they did not bid for the airline in 2018. The terms changed in 2021 in the second round and they successfully bid for it, with Ajay Singh of struggling-to-survive SpiceJet being the other bidder. “There is serious concern in SIA over both financial and reputational loss that AI is causing. Whether Thursday’s meeting between Choon Phong and Chandra is to decide on the new CEO or the hiccups AI is facing, will be discussed threadbare. There is also talk of SIA planning to pull out of AI but that seems unlikely,” said a person in the know.



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