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China GDP growth seen at 4.3% in 2026 amid moderating export momentum

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China GDP growth seen at 4.3% in 2026 amid moderating export momentum



China’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast at 4.3 per cent in 2026, within a range of 4.1-4.6 per cent, moderating from 2025 largely due to a high export base, according to JP Morgan. Policy support is expected to remain measured but accommodative. Fiscal policy is likely to stay expansionary, with the budget deficit hovering around 4 per cent of GDP, supplemented by lending from policy banks and expanded local government bond quotas.

Monetary policy is expected to focus on fine-tuning rather than aggressive easing. The People’s Bank of China is likely to rely on liquidity operations and reserve requirement ratio adjustments, while avoiding meaningful policy rate cuts to preserve banking sector profitability and financial stability, JP Morgan said in its 2026 Asia Outlook report.

Exports remain the dominant driver of growth, underscoring the uneven nature of China’s recovery. China’s export engine continues to outperform despite rising global protectionism. Real exports are on track to grow around 8 per cent in 2025, lifting China’s share of global exports to about 15 per cent. Exports to the US now account for less than 10 per cent of total shipments, reflecting China’s success in expanding sales across non-US markets.

China’s GDP growth is forecast at 4.3 per cent in 2026 as export-led momentum moderates, as per JP Morgan.
Policy support will remain accommodative, with fiscal expansion and cautious monetary fine-tuning.
Exports continue to drive growth despite rising protectionism and trade frictions.
A weaker yuan and growing AI investment are expected to shape China’s medium-term economic outlook.

While manufacturing capacity is gradually diversifying towards ASEAN and India, these regions remain heavily dependent on Chinese inputs and capital goods. This reinforces China’s central position in global supply chains, even as geopolitical tensions persist.

For global competitors, China’s export strength is intensifying pressure. Japan and South Korea are losing market share in several sectors, while Southeast Asian economies and India, despite export gains, are recording widening trade deficits with China. Replicating China’s manufacturing ecosystem remains difficult due to differences in scale, speed, and state-backed coordination.

Rising competitiveness has also fuelled trade frictions. Since 2024, several economies have introduced anti-dumping and countervailing measures on Chinese products. These barriers are expected to slow export growth in 2026, moderating China’s strongest post-pandemic growth driver, the report added.

Despite a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion year-to-date, the yuan has weakened by about 4 per cent on a trade-weighted basis. Analysts see limited scope for sustained appreciation, given the managed exchange rate regime and concerns over export competitiveness and deflationary pressures.

Looking beyond traditional drivers, China is accelerating investment in artificial intelligence as a potential new growth pillar. Industry-wide AI and cloud capital expenditure is projected to exceed $70 billion in 2026. While the sector’s near-term impact on headline growth may be limited, it is expected to play an increasingly important role in shaping China’s economic trajectory beyond 2026.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)



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South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand

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South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand



In the Mumbai market, cotton yarn prices remained unchanged as the loom sector slowed production. Although spinning mills are looking to raise their selling rates, they have not found sufficient demand. A Mumbai-based trader told Fibre*Fashion, “Power and auto looms are facing limited fabric buying from the garment industry. Export prospects are still unclear. Domestic demand is also insufficient to support any price rise. Mills are comfortable with falling cotton prices, while buyers remain silent on yarn purchases.”

In Mumbai, ** carded yarn of warp and weft varieties were traded at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.**) and ****;*,****,*** per * kg (~$**.****.**) (excluding GST), respectively. Other prices include ** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, ** carded weft at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.** per *.* kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg and **/** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, according to trade sources.



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Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India

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Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India



The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding, which could allow near zero-tariff access for Bangladeshi garments to the American market subject to specific riders, has triggered debate within India’s textile and apparel industry. The real gains from zero tariffs may be limited due to high freight costs, longer lead times, and insufficient capacity in Bangladesh’s spinning and weaving/knitting sectors.

Bangladesh is already among the top suppliers of apparel to the US, particularly in basic knit and woven categories such as T-shirts, trousers and sweaters. A tariff advantage, even if modest, could sharpen its price competitiveness in high-volume, price-sensitive segments dominated by mass retailers.

The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding offering near zero-tariff access for garments has sparked debate in India’s textile sector.
While Bangladesh may gain a price edge in basic apparel, industry leaders believe the effective advantage could be limited to 2–3 per cent due to raw material dependence, capacity constraints and logistics costs.

However, Indian industry leaders argue that the net gain for Bangladesh may be restricted to around 2–3 per cent in effective competitiveness. They point to structural constraints, including Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on imported raw materials. A significant share of its fabric and yarn requirements is sourced from China and India, limiting flexibility in rules-of-origin compliance if strict value-addition conditions are attached to the deal.

Capacity limitations in spinning, weaving and man-made fibre processing are also seen as bottlenecks. While Bangladesh has built scale in garmenting, its upstream integration remains narrower than India’s diversified fibre-to-fashion base. Indian exporters emphasise that integrated supply chains offer advantages in speed, customisation and smaller batch production.

Logistics and lead times may further temper expectations. Distance from major US ports, coupled with infrastructure pressures and global shipping volatility, could offset part of the tariff benefit. In contrast, Indian suppliers have been investing in port connectivity, digital compliance systems and flexible production models to strengthen reliability.

Industry representatives also highlight that US buyers are increasingly factoring in sustainability, traceability and geopolitical risk. India’s growing adoption of renewable energy in textile clusters, compliance with global standards and broader product depth may help it retain strategic sourcing partnerships.

While some diversion of orders in basic categories cannot be ruled out, exporters believe the overall impact will be incremental rather than disruptive. The consensus view is that tariff preference alone is unlikely to override considerations of scale, compliance, diversification and long-term supply-chain resilience.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)



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US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole

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US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole



United States (US) Senator Bill Cassidy, along with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, have introduced the ‘Last Sale Valuation Act,’ legislation aimed at closing a long-standing customs loophole that allows importers to underpay duties by declaring goods at artificially low values. The act would require tariffs to be assessed on the final sale value of imported goods rather than earlier transactions in complex overseas supply chains.

“This bill protects Louisiana workers and American businesses, ensuring loopholes don’t hold them back,” Dr Cassidy said in a press release.

US Senators Bill Cassidy and Sheldon Whitehouse have introduced the Last Sale Valuation Act to close the ‘first sale’ customs loophole that lets importers underpay duties.
The bipartisan bill would base tariffs on final sale values, strengthen US Customs enforcement and curb duty evasion.
Supporters say it will protect American manufacturers, workers and federal revenue.

If passed, the bipartisan measure would grant clearer enforcement authority to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), streamline valuation reviews and reduce disputes over documentation, while curbing mis-invoicing and related-party pricing schemes linked to tariff evasion and illicit financial activity.

The legislation has drawn support from the American Compass, the Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Southern Shrimp Alliance.

“Cassidy’s ‘Last Sale Valuation Act’ strengthens customs valuation by assessing duties on the final transaction value of goods entering the US,” said Mark A DiPlacido, senior political economist at the American Compass, adding that closing the judicially created ‘first sale’ loophole would reduce duty evasion, simplify enforcement and increase customs revenue.

Jon Toomey, president of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, said the bill is “an important first step in restoring customs integrity,” ensuring duties are paid on the true commercial value of imported goods and helping level the playing field for American manufacturers and workers.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (CG)



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