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Chipotle stock craters as Wall Street grows concerned after company cuts forecast

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Chipotle stock craters as Wall Street grows concerned after company cuts forecast


A Chipotle logo is displayed on a sign at a shop on June 1, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill tumbled as much as 19% in trading Thursday after the company cut its full-year same-store sales forecast for the third straight quarter.

Including Thursday’s move, the stock has fallen 45% this year, dragging its market value down to roughly $43 billion. At least five Wall Street analysts have cut their price targets for the stock after the report, anticipating investors’ displeasure with the burrito chain’s shrinking traffic and gloomy outlook.

“It’s difficult to call a bottom for sales given the multitude of factors weighing on demand,” Citi analyst Jon Tower wrote in a research note, revising his price target from $54 to $44 per share.

In the third quarter, Chipotle’s same-store sales rose 0.3%, but the chain’s traffic fell. While many restaurant chains have suffered in recent years as diners wracked by inflation eat out less, analysts were unsure if the chain’s value perception contributed to Chipotle’s issues. While its burritos and bowls average about $10, consumers often assume its average prices are closer to the $15 entrees of its fast-casual peers, executives said on the conference call.

“While we knew that traffic had slowed for Chipotle into the fall, we were surprised by the magnitude that was reported last night and the resulting deleverage this produced,” BTIG analyst Pete Saleh wrote in a note. “We’re admittedly perplexed by how suddenly this traffic weakness came about, and not convinced affordability concerns are the main driver here.”

CEO Scott Boatwright said on Wednesday’s earnings conference call that diners are visiting less frequently, particularly those between the ages of 25 and 35 years old, a key demographic for the company. Same-store sales have worsened so far in October, and the company is now projecting that sales at restaurants open at least a year will shrink in the fourth quarter and fall by a low-single digit percentage for the full year.

“We are very concerned that the menu and marketing actions taken so far have not sufficiently offset the traffic retraction,” Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo said.

Still, most analysts attributed the slowdown to industrywide challenges, not company-specific issues that Chipotle needs to address. Unemployment, increased student loan repayments and slower real wage growth accounting for inflation are weighing on consumers’ spending, according to Boatwright.

“We believe the brand remains fundamentally healthy (stable share of customer restaurant wallet) and expect a return to growth as the macro improves,” Bank of America Securities analyst Sara Senatore wrote in a note to clients.

Chipotle’s weak performance bodes poorly for its fast-casual peers, like Sweetgreen and Cava. Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour called fast-casual restaurants “This Season’s Halloween Scare” in his research note covering Chipotle’s earnings report.

Shares of Sweetgreen fell 6% in trading Thursday, while Cava stock was down 8%. Both are slated to report their third-quarter results next week.

Correction: The company is now projecting that sales at restaurants open at least a year will fall by a low-single digit percentage for the full year. An earlier version misstated the percentage move.



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MLB faces a historic shift as potential lockout, media rights and other league changes loom

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MLB faces a historic shift as potential lockout, media rights and other league changes loom


Thursday’s Opening Day may be the calm before the storm for Major League Baseball.

The league’s collective bargaining agreement with its players expires at the end of this season. Owners, with the commissioner’s backing, are almost sure to push for a salary cap (which would likely come with a salary floor to get players to the negotiating table).

MLB owners have never been able to get a cap passed by the players union. It’s unclear if the end of the 2026 season will lead to a different result, but MLB Players Association Interim Executive Director Bruce Meyer told ESPN last month he expects a lockout is “all but guaranteed.”

In addition to the CBA’s expiration, there are major shifts underway for baseball media rights. One-third of the league’s teams didn’t have local TV deals in place for this season until this week. 

Nine MLB teams – the Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, and Detroit Tigers – announced Wednesday their brand new MLB-operated team channels will be carried by DirecTV.

Most of those teams had previously been part of Main Street Sports (previously Diamond Sports Group), which operates FanDuel Sports Networks (previously Bally Sports). That entity has been teetering with liquidation, and the teams terminated their contracts with the company due to missed payments earlier this year.

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A 10th team, the Atlanta Braves, is launching a new network called BravesVision. The Braves and Charter’s Spectrum announced a multiyear distribution agreement earlier this week

MLB ideally wants the rights to all 30 teams in its control by the end of the 2028 season so that it can sell the in-market local games as a national package to a streamer. That would become the modern replacement to regional sports networks, and it would likely be a new, coveted package for streaming services such as ESPN and Amazon Prime Video.

Also at the end of the 2028 season, MLB’s national media rights for all of its packages will expire, allowing the league to redistribute games to its partners and potentially select new ones. 

NBC, ESPN, Fox and a combined CBS/Turner have dominated national rights for the past few decades.

“The key in media negotiations now is having all of your rights available,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred told me last year. “If you have all of your content – all of your playoffs, all of your regular season – available, there will be buyers, and I’m confident there will be buyers at a higher price for us.”

Manfred has even floated the idea of expanding to 32 teams and realigning the league geographically, upending or even eliminating the American and National leagues that have existed for more than 100 years. 

Soaring TV ratings

Rob Manfred, Commissioner of the MLB, attends the annual Allen and Co. Sun Valley Media and Technology Conference at the Sun Valley Resort in Sun Valley, Idaho, U.S., on July 9, 2025.

David A. Grogan | CNBC

More than 50 million people in the U.S., Canada and Japan watched Game Seven of the World Series last year – the most-watched baseball game in 34 years. MLB recently wrapped up the World Baseball Classic – a global preseason tournament – which captured nearly 11 million viewers on Fox and Fox Deportes for its final game.

MLB team valuations rose 13% from last year. The average MLB team is now worth $2.95 billion, according to CNBC Sport data.

Still, the profitability of the league is in far worse shape than it is for the NFL, NBA and NHL, according to CNBC’s calculations. In 2025, MLB’s 30 teams had an EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — margin of under 2%. Team average revenue was $426 million with average EBITDA of $7 million, including non-MLB ballpark events. In contrast, the comparable margin for the NFL was 20%; the NBA, 21% and the NHL, 22%, according to CNBC’s most recent valuations.

The new CBA at the end of this season could be the first significant step toward a very different MLB. But, similar to the WNBA, which announced its new CBA earlier this week, MLB must ensure negotiations to get a new labor agreement don’t jeopardize a wave of positive momentum.

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JLR temporarily halts production at Solihull plant

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JLR temporarily halts production at Solihull plant


A JLR spokesperson said: “Due to a part supply challenge with a supplier, we are temporarily pausing production on certain vehicle lines at our Solihull manufacturing facility. We are working closely with that supplier to resolve the issue as quickly as possible and minimise any impact on our clients or our operations.”



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WTO reform push: India flags dysfunctional dispute system at MC14, seeks review of e-commerce duty moratorium – The Times of India

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WTO reform push: India flags dysfunctional dispute system at MC14, seeks review of e-commerce duty moratorium – The Times of India


India on Thursday urged members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to restore a fully functional dispute settlement system, saying the current mechanism has deprived countries of effective redressal, PTI reported.Speaking on the opening day of the WTO’s 14th ministerial conference (MC14) in Yaounde, Cameroon, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal stressed the need to revive the automatic and binding nature of dispute resolution within the global trade body.“A dysfunctional Dispute Settlement System has deprived Members from effective redressal. We must restore the automatic and binding dispute settlement system,” he said.The WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism has faced prolonged disruption since 2009 after the US blocked appointments to the Appellate Body.Goyal also called for a reassessment of the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions, which WTO members have periodically extended since 1998. India has repeatedly raised concerns over the potential revenue implications of the arrangement.“In the absence of a common understanding among Members on the scope of the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions and given its potentially significant implications, the continued extension of this moratorium warrants careful reconsideration,” he said.The four-day MC14 is scheduled to conclude on March 29.On broader WTO reforms, Goyal emphasised that any restructuring should be transparent, inclusive and member-driven, with development concerns at the centre. He underlined that core principles such as non-discrimination, consensus-based decision-making and equity must be upheld. The minister added that the principle of special and differential treatment (S&DT) should be made precise, effective and operational.On agriculture negotiations, he said a permanent solution on public stockholding for food security purposes, the special safeguard mechanism and cotton are long-pending mandated issues that member countries “must deliver on them on priority”.“India remains committed to negotiating a comprehensive Fisheries Subsidies Agreement that balances current and future fishing needs, protects the livelihoods of poor fishers, with appropriate and effective S&DT,” Goyal said.He also stated that incorporating plurilateral outcomes into the WTO framework should be based on consensus and should not undermine the rights of non-participants or impose additional obligations on them.“We will engage constructively to show that WTO remains central to global trade and strive to Reform it to remain responsive, Perform in delivering on development, equity, and inclusiveness, and Transform to better serve the interests of the poor, vulnerable, and marginalized people, anchored in consensus and multilateralism,” he said.Other WTO members also highlighted the need for reforms. According to a statement from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the organisation has struggled to address systemic issues such as persistent trade imbalances, structural excess capacity, economic security and supply chain resilience.“As ministers, our focus should be on reforms that would make the WTO more responsive to Members and improve our ability to achieve outcomes that optimize our trading relationships,” Greer said, adding that countries should consider making the e-commerce duty moratorium permanent.Separately, a ministerial statement by the G-33 grouping of developing countries reiterated that public stockholding for food security remains a crucial policy tool for developing and least developed nations.“We urge all WTO Members to work together in reaching a permanent solution on this issue as per the Ministerial mandates,” the statement said.China also called for restoring a fully functioning dispute settlement mechanism at the earliest to strengthen the WTO’s role in global economic governance. The UK said it wanted to “improve accountability by reinstating a functioning dispute settlement system”.EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic warned that inaction could weaken the rules-based trading system. “Maintaining the status quo is not an option — we cannot go on as we are. If we do, we risk erosion of the rules-based system and the WTO sliding into irrelevance. Therefore, I strongly believe we must act urgently to reform the WTO,” he said



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