Business
Chocolate’s reign over Halloween is under threat from inflation, tariffs and high cocoa prices
A customer shops for Halloween candy at a Walmart Supercenter on October 16, 2024 in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
The scariest thing haunting Halloween this year isn’t a ghost, goblin or ghoul — it’s the price of chocolate.
From Snickers to Reese’s to Twix, one of America’s favorite indulgences is getting more expensive, as tariffs, inflation and high cocoa prices squeeze profit margins and customers’ pocketbooks, possibly leading to fewer chocolate bars landing in trick-or-treat buckets this year.
Chocolate prices have surged nearly 30% since last Halloween and almost 78% in the past five years, according to data from research firm Circana and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 100-piece variety bag of candy now costs $16.39, up from $7.20 in 2020, FinanceBuzz found.
That spike is showing up on store shelves. Variety packs from Hershey — maker of Reese’s, KitKats and Heath bars — are up about 22%, while Mars, the company behind M&M’s and Milky Way, raised prices about 12%, according to the Century Foundation, a progressive, independent think tank, and the Groundwork Collaborative.
“The season did get off to a slow start,” Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner told investors on an earnings call Thursday, warning that holiday sales could be softer this year.
About 4 in 5 Americans buy candy for the Halloween holiday, according to YouGov. This time of year makes up about 18% of annual U.S. confectionery sales — second only to Christmas, according to the National Confectioners Association.
But chocolate’s dominance is slipping. Circana found it made up 52% of Halloween candy sales last year, compared with 44% this year, as shoppers shift toward cheaper, trendier sweets.
“Macroeconomic headwinds” are among the culprits, said Sally Wyatt, who works for Circana analyzing global consumer packaged goods and as a food-service industry advisor. “It’s the compounded impact on top of the fact that we’ve outpaced wage growth. So consumers have started to … [make] very specific choices on discretionary items.”
Sector-wide, candy prices are outpacing the national inflation rate, marking a roughly 10% increase compared with last year, according to the Century Foundation. Still, the National Retail Federation said 2025 is expected to be a record year for candy sales in the U.S., with about $3.9 billion spent on Halloween candy alone.
“Even as consumers face higher prices for food, they continue to leave room in their budgets for chocolate and candy, meaning that the category is strong, vibrant and growing,” Carly Schildhaus, a spokesperson for the National Confectioners Association, told CNBC.
Much of the chocolate filling U.S. shelves this fall was made from cocoa beans purchased at record prices last December, when futures peaked above $12,000 per ton, experts said. Prices have since cooled to around $6,000, but that’s still more than double the pre-pandemic average.
A cocktail of rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, drought and crop disease for the past three years has devastated harvests in West Africa, which produces roughly 70% of the world’s cocoa. The result: the largest global cocoa deficit in 60 years, with supply falling half a million tons short of demand.
Prices could stabilize, but not decrease, by next year as crop yields have increased, said David Branch, a sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
“It’s not just the cost of manufacturing cocoa and other ingredients,” Branch told CNBC. “It’s also a combination of labor, transportation, fuel, overhead [and] all of those factors, and, given the inflationary rate we’ve been in, those came up and haven’t really come down.”
Hershey said Thursday that tariff expenses will cost the company $160 million to $170 million this year. In July, it also announced a “low double-digit” price hike, though executives said those increases weren’t tied to tariffs or Halloween pricing.
Chocolate makers have lobbied the Trump administration for tariff exemptions on cocoa and other agricultural imports, arguing they have little ability to source those ingredients domestically.
Sweet variety
As chocolate becomes more expensive, fruity, sour and chewy candies have gotten more popular. More than half of shoppers said they planned to prioritize gummy candies for Halloween this year, NielsenIQ found.
On average, the price per pound of chocolate rose nearly 14% in the 12 weeks ending Oct. 5, while sales volumes fell 6%, Circana data show. Non-chocolate Halloween candy such as Jolly Ranchers and Skittles saw sales climb 8.3% in that same period.
Younger adults, especially Gen Z, are also fueling growth in non-chocolate categories — gravitating toward gummies, freeze-dried sweets and TikTok-friendly flavor mashups.
“It’s that experiential [aspect] because you can have it [non-chocolate items] with chewy, with sweet flavors, with hot and sweet, spicy flavors,” Wyatt told CNBC. “Some candies you get this big explosion in your mouth of flavors. We’ve seen it popular with different cohorts.”
Chocolate makers are responding in kind. Hershey has expanded its gummy lineup, including a partnership with Shaquille O’Neal, and rolled out ghost-shaped Twizzlers and mismatched “Trickies” Jolly Rancher gummies.
Mondelez International, maker of Cadbury and Toblerone, said it’s also prioritizing gummies in the U.S. market. CEO Dirk Van de Put said on an earnings call Tuesday, however, that the U.S. market in particular “is slower than we’ve seen in quite a while” and the company’s promotional strategy earlier this year “was not giving us the volume effect that we were hoping for.”
Manufacturers are also experimenting with smaller bars, new fillings and cocoa-free options such as crème or nut-based confections to offset rising ingredient costs, Branch said.
“Companies have got to be very aware of if they can keep their prices in line. They can’t just keep increasing their prices and expect sales to continue to go up,” Branch said. “But customers have not lost their appetite for chocolate. It’s going to remain an indulgence that people will always have and can’t really do without.”
Business
US markets today: Wall Street jumps after softer inflation update; Micron sparks AI rebound – The Times of India
US stock markets rallied on Thursday after a better-than-expected inflation update eased concerns over the interest rate outlook, while a strong earnings report from Micron Technology helped arrest the recent slide in artificial intelligence-linked stocks, AP reported.The S&P 500 rose about 1%, snapping a four-session losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed over 350 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained around 1.4%, led by technology and semiconductor shares.Investor sentiment improved after data showed US inflation slowed to 2.7% last month, coming in below economists’ expectations. While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the softer reading raised hopes that the central bank could continue cutting interest rates next year to support a slowing job market.Some caution persisted with market participants noting that recent economic data have been volatile following the US government shutdown, and that upcoming inflation reports may provide a clearer signal.Technology stocks got a further boost from Micron Technology, which surged nearly 16% after posting stronger-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue and issuing an upbeat outlook. Chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra said demand linked to artificial intelligence accelerated across Micron’s businesses, reinforcing its role as a key “AI enabler”.The results helped ease worries that heavy spending on AI by major companies may not yield sufficient returns. Shares of Broadcom and Oracle, which had fallen sharply in recent sessions despite solid earnings, rebounded, while Nvidia also edged higher.Elsewhere, Trump Media & Technology Group jumped sharply after announcing an all-stock merger with nuclear technology firm TAE Technologies, marking its entry into the nuclear power space. Cintas also advanced after reporting strong earnings and announcing a share buyback programme.Global markets were mixed. European stocks posted modest gains after the Bank of England cut interest rates and the European Central Bank held policy steady, while Asian markets ended unevenly.In the bond market, US Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to around 4.11%, reflecting optimism following the inflation data.
The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday its decision to cut interest rates to 3.75 per cent, the fourth cut of the year.
For December’s vote, the bank’s nine-person Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed just a slight swing compared to last time out pre-Budget in November; a 5-4 split then favouring a hold became a 5-4 split in favour of cutting this time, with governor Andrew Bailey a key switcher.
Following falling inflation rates, poor economic figures and rising unemployment, it brings the base rate down to the lowest level in almost three years.
Here’s a brief rundown of what the current interest rate might mean for you:
What does the interest rate mean for mortgages?
Broadly speaking, as increasing interest rates over the last few years have meant mortgage repayments going up, then the reverse also holds true: lower rates, lower repayments. However, there are several important things to note.
Firstly, that it’s only the interest on the repayments which should change – your capital repayments will naturally decrease the more you pay off your mortgage. Secondly, the base rate isn’t the rate you are necessarily charged by your bank or lender for the mortgage – they’ll base theirs off the BoE rate but it doesn’t have to be the same.
More than half a million people do, however, have a mortgage which tracks the BoE interest rate and those will see an immediate change. Far more have fixed-term deals, which expire each year and need renegotiating – almost 2 million homes are expected to seek renewed deals in 2026.
If you’ve got a fixed term on a mortgage plan, you won’t see a change in any case until that comes to an end and you start a new one, but if you’ve already finished and moved onto a standard variable rate (SVR) deal, then you might see a change in your repayments.
New mortgage products tend to be based on swap rates – market agreements based on future expectations of interest rate movements – rather than the current bank rate, which is why there has been a recent battle between lenders dropping their rates even before the cut today.
What about savings accounts?
If you have money in a savings account, it’s the other side of the see-saw: rates going down mean you’ll earn less interest.
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As there has been a bit of a fierce battle raging among banks and building societies for customers, it’s still possible to get good deals if you are happy to lock in money for a fixed period of time or contribute regular amounts, with several offering more than 4 per cent until recently.
However, it’s likely some will be removed from the market or have their rates altered in the coming days, while many of the best deals in easy access accounts have been below 4.5 per cent for a while now.
There are always terms and conditions to be met, so ensure any accounts you open suit your circumstances, but the opportunity still remains to save and earn money at a better rate than inflation, which currently sits around 3.2 per cent.
Do be aware of the amount of interest you can earn without being taxed, though. If your savings account interest rate isn’t fixed, banks can always change the rate you get up or down.
A tax-efficient way of saving is to use a Cash ISA, where everyone (for now!) has a £20,000 personal allowance each year, which will drop to £12,000 soon with the other £8,000 reserved for tax-free investing.
Bills and repayments
Credit card repayments and other types of personal loans are of course also affected by interest rates, as the amount they all charge for borrowing could be altered.
For credit card users (and especially for Buy Now Pay Later deals), it’s always ideal to pay off the full amount each month if you are able to, to avoid interest being charged at all – depending on your circumstances and the account type, they can be one of the more costly ways to borrow.
Again, it may not be immediate that lenders alter their rates after a base rate change, but get in touch with them to assess your options if you feel your repayments could or should be lower.
Michael RaceBusiness reporter
Getty ImagesInterest rates have been cut to 3.75%, the lowest level in almost three years, but further reductions are set to be a “closer call”, the Bank of England has said.
In a knife-edge vote, policymakers voted 5-4 in favour to lower rates from 4% reflecting concerns over rising unemployment and weak economic growth.
The Bank said rates were “likely to continue on a gradual downward path”, but warned judgements on further cuts next year would more contested.
Inflation is now expected to fall “closer to 2%” – the Bank’s target – next year, which is sooner than previous forecasts. However, the economy is predicted to see zero growth in the final few months of this year.
The decision to lower borrowing costs from 4% was widely expected, after figures this week showed inflation, the rate prices rise at, slowed further to 3.2% in the year to November.
“We still think rates are on a gradual path downward but with every cut we make, how much further we go becomes a closer call,” said the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey.
While the cut is likely to be good news for people looking to borrow cash or secure a mortgage, savers could see a reduction on their returns.
About 500,000 homeowners have a mortgage that “tracks” the Bank of England’s rate, and Thursday’s cut is likely to mean a typical reduction of £29 in monthly repayments.
Homeowners on standard variable rates are also likely to see lower payments, although the vast majority of mortgage customers have fixed-rate deals so are not affected by the latest decision.
The Bank said that, following the tax and spending policies announced in last month’s Budget and easing oil and gas prices, inflation was likely to fall close to 2% in the spring/summer of next year. Previously it did not expect this to happen until 2027.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the government would cut £150 off household energy bills in the Budget, as well as freeze fuel duty and rail fares.
However, the Bank said weaker economic growth in November had led it to expect zero growth for the final few months of this year.
It said information gathered from businesses around the country suggested a “lacklustre economy”, with firms concerned by the speculation ahead of the Budget.
The Bank said consumers remained “cautious and keenly focused on value for money”, adding that food shops were “smaller than usual”.
“Some supermarkets have been concerned that the Budget will dampen spending on Christmas food and drink, but discounters say that early sales of lowered priced seasonal food are solid so far,” it added.
Latest figures showed the price of food was the main driver behind November’s drop in inflation.
The inflation rate has fallen in recent months, but this drop does not mean that prices are falling, rather they are rising at a slower rate.
Mr Bailey reiterated that the Bank believed inflation had passed its peak.
Reacting to the Bank’s decision, the chancellor said it was the “sixth interest rate cut since the election – that’s the fastest pace of cuts in 17 years, good news for families with mortgages and businesses with loans”.
But shadow chancellor Mel Stride said while lower interest rates would be “welcome news for many families”, the cut reflected “growing concerns about the weakness of our economy”.
“The economic mismanagement of Rachel Reeves has left the Bank of England with an impossible dilemma, balancing high inflation against a fragile economy.”
EPAThe Bank, which is independent of the government, sets interest rates in an attempt to try to keep consumer price rises under control.
The theory behind increasing interest rates to tackle inflation is that by making borrowing more expensive, more people will cut back on spending and that leads to demand for goods falling and price rises easing.
But it is a balancing act, as high interest rates can harm the economy as businesses hold off from investing in production and jobs.
The government has made growing the economy its main priority as part of its efforts to boost living standards.
In its most recent Monetary Policy Report, the Bank predicted UK economic growth would be 1.5% this year, but forecast it would fall to 1.2% next year before rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028.
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