Sports
‘Climate change shrinking window for record-breaking marathon performances’
KARACHI: A new scientific analysis has warned that climate change is rapidly shrinking the window of “cool days” that allow marathon runners to achieve their best performances, posing an increasing challenge for athletes and organisers of the world’s premier long-distance races.
The report, titled “Running out of cool days: How climate change is decreasing the odds of optimal marathon conditions”, was released by Climate Central ahead of the New York City Marathon.
It examines how rising global temperatures are affecting marathon performance conditions across 221 global races, including all seven Abbott World Marathon Majors.
According to the study, 86% of marathons analysed (190 out of 221) are projected to experience a decline in the odds of ideal running temperatures by 2045. This includes all major races in Tokyo, Boston, Berlin, Chicago, London, New York, and Sydney.
Among the elite male runners, Tokyo currently offers the best odds of ideal race-day conditions, with a 69% chance of hitting the performance “sweet spot”. But that advantage won’t last: the probability is expected to fall by 12 percentage points to 57% by 2045 if emissions continue at current rates.
Elite women, who perform better in warmer temperatures than men, are somewhat more resilient to climate shifts. They currently have a 78% chance of optimal race-day temperatures at Tokyo, rising slightly to 85% by 2045. Still, researchers emphasise that even small changes in average conditions can have significant impacts on elite performance and race safety.
The analysis also found that London offers the most favourable conditions for elite women at present, with an 87% likelihood of optimal temperatures, while Berlin presents one of the least favourable outlooks. By 2045, the odds of ideal conditions for elite female runners in Berlin are expected to drop from 40% to 29%.
The report found that the exceptional heat at the 2025 Tokyo and Berlin Marathons pushed conditions far beyond the optimal range for both recreational and elite runners and that human-caused climate change made those temperatures significantly more likely.
On March 2, 2025, the day of the Tokyo Marathon, the average temperature was 15.2°C (59.4°F), about 8.2°C warmer than normal, reaching a Climate Shift Index (CSI) level of 3, meaning the unusually warm conditions were three times more likely due to climate change.
Similarly, Berlin’s race on September 21, 2025, saw an average temperature of 20.7°C, about 6.7°C warmer than normal, with a CSI level of 2, indicating the heat was twice as likely because of global warming.
“Heat waves are already rewriting race history,” said Climate Central in its release. “For many marathons, what used to be ideal race conditions are becoming the exception rather than the rule”.
Researchers identified precise “sweet spots” for marathon temperatures where runners perform their best. For elite men, that optimal average is 4°C; for elite women, it’s 10°C. Recreational runners perform best at slightly higher temperatures, around 6°C for men and 7°C for women.
The analysis draws from global temperature records, climate model projections, and Climate Central’s proprietary Climate Shift Index to estimate how the probability of ideal temperatures will evolve over time, using future climate scenarios aligned with the SSP3-7.0 pathway.
While the findings show a clear long-term decline in favourable marathon conditions, the report also notes that some adaptations could help mitigate the impacts.
One adaptation measure is to start races earlier in the morning, when daily low temperatures prevail. Researchers found that adjusting race times to sunrise could significantly increase the chances of ideal temperatures for elite men by 44 percentage points in London, 31 points in Tokyo, and 27 points in Boston by 2045.
However, this approach doesn’t benefit all groups equally. Because elite women perform better at slightly higher temperatures, earlier starts could actually reduce their odds of optimal conditions, notably in Tokyo (down 41 points) and Boston (down 18 points).
The Climate Central concludes that reducing fossil fuel pollution remains the only lasting solution to preserve the cool, comfortable race-day conditions that support peak performance and athlete safety.
Around 1.1 million people finish a marathon every year, but as the planet warms, the chances of running in optimal weather are rapidly diminishing even for races in traditionally cool climates.
Veteran marathoners and record holders are already seeing the changes firsthand.
“Climate change has altered the marathon,” said Catherine Ndereba, former marathon world record holder and two-time world champion. “Dehydration is a real risk, and simple miscalculations can end a race before it begins. Every step now carries a message that if we don’t take care of our planet, even our strongest strides will fall short”.
Mhairi Maclennan, the fastest British finisher at the 2024 London Marathon, said ideal race conditions are “slipping away”.
“At the elite level, conditions make or break a performance,” she said. “We train day in, day out for years, only for that elusive target to drift further away as ideal temperatures become rarer”.
Kenyan legend Ibrahim Kipkemboi Hussein, the first Kenyan to win both the New York City (1987) and Boston (1988) marathons, described how races have changed with the warming climate.
“The climate is part of the course now,” Hussein said. “Dehydration and exhaustion come faster; a small mistake in pacing or hydration can cost everything. If we don’t protect the planet, the records of the future and the joy of running itself are at risk”.
For Climate Central, the message is clear: marathoners and their races are on the front lines of a warming world.
While earlier starts and logistical adaptations may buy time, the only sustainable path to preserving record-breaking conditions is to curb global emissions and stabilise the planet’s temperature rise.
“The cool, comfortable race-day conditions that make history are running out,” the report warns. “If we fail to act, the world’s great marathons and the runners who define them will be racing against more than the clock”.
The offensive tackle, who came to Washington in an offseason trade, has been as good as promised, and he’ll be seeking a contract extension after this season.
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For the first time, the Pakistan women’s football team will directly participate in a Fifa event, marking a significant milestone for the country’s sporting history.
The participation comes under the Fifa Football Series — an initiative introduced by Fifa President Gianni Infantino. The Series includes national teams that do not qualify for the Fifa World Cup, which is held every four years.
President of the Pakistan Football Federation (PFF), Mohsin Gilani, expressed his delight at Pakistan’s inclusion in the Women’s Fifa Series.
He described it as a “historic moment” for Pakistan football, noting that while the national team has competed in Fifa qualifying rounds in the past, this will be the first time Pakistan directly takes part in a Fifa event. He said he is deeply grateful to the Fifa President for the opportunity.
Gilani added that the event will inspire young footballers across the country, saying that seeing Pakistan’s flag fly at a Fifa event will be a major achievement for him as PFF President. He said the development has renewed hope for a “bright and promising future” for football in Pakistan, calling it the beginning of greater progress ahead.
Pakistan’s women’s team currently stands at 154 in the Fifa Women’s World Ranking out of 198 teams. For the 2026 Women’s Fifa Series, Fifa has placed Pakistan in the Ivory Coast group, though the match schedule — including opponents and dates — has yet to be announced.
Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Don’t be surprised if … San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy is a top-10 fantasy QB this month
Matchups matter, and Purdy and his buddies play the Tennessee Titans this week, then the reeling Indianapolis Colts. That should be enough to persuade fantasy managers to slide Purdy into their lineups. The Titans are bad, and they have been lit up recently by Shedeur Sanders, Davis Mills and others. There’s more. The 49ers didn’t play in Week 14. While we/many mocked the NFL for having teams serve bye weeks in December, during our fantasy playoffs! (how dare they!), the aftermath of this is important. RB Christian McCaffrey and TE George Kittle rested. Of course, they are the lone 49ers typically in a fantasy lineup.
Purdy rested, too. He lacks the flashy statistics this season as he battled a sprained left shoulder and then a toe injury, missing more than half the games. Purdy threw three touchdown passes in Week 11 against Arizona, then threw three interceptions the following Monday night against the tougher-than-people-realize Carolina Panthers. He scored 17.12 points in Week 13 against a strong Cleveland Browns defense. Purdy averaged 17.8 points last season. He was fantasy’s No. 6 QB in 2023. We have seen and enjoyed his upside, and with this schedule, I say he rewards those who trust him. Play Purdy over Patrick Mahomes (vs. Chargers), Lamar Jackson (no, I don’t think he is fine), Dak Prescott and myriad others this week.
Other QB thoughts:
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Sticking to the matchups theme, do not talk yourself out of relying on Philadelphia Eagles starter Jalen Hurts. C’mon, people. The Las Vegas Raiders are coming to Philly, and Hurts, fresh off a five-turnover nightmare Monday in Los Angeles, is not going to score only 0.4 more points than you and I again. The Raiders are awful. Calls for backup Tanner McKee are ridiculous. The Eagles have lost three in a row, but they should score at will against the Raiders, and then they get the indifferent Washington Commanders in Weeks 16 and 18. Hurts scored 30.86 fantasy points in Week 12. Nobody — Eagles or you — is benching him.
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The situation with Hurts highlights that there is a big difference between evaluating quarterbacks for real-life and fantasy purposes. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell discussed the league’s top MVP candidates, with QBs Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love leading the way. Fantasy managers should view Love quite differently. Although he could still finish among the top 10 QB scorers this season, he isn’t there yet, and last season he finished 17th. Give Love credit for strides in the turnover department, but he has scored single-digit fantasy points in three of the past six games, and I like his odds for another statistically disappointing effort in Denver on Sunday. Perhaps the Green Bay Packers keep winning, but one must separate fantasy and reality.
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The Indianapolis Colts, having lost three games in a row and their starting QB Daniel Jones, hit the road Sunday to face the Seattle Seahawks. No, I don’t think they are winning that one, either. Choose your statistical evidence however you please, but the Seahawks and Broncos are right up there for toughest defense to do just about anything against. We would not have recommended a healthy Jones for this matchup, so don’t even ask about Riley Leonard (knee), Philip Rivers (grandpa), Anthony Richardson Sr. (knee), Peyton Manning (on my TV a lot more than the other fellows), Bert Jones (Google him) or whomever else the Colts could find for this one.
Don’t be surprised if … Cincinnati Bengals veteran Chase Brown finishes among the top 10 RB scorers
Brown has been on a fantasy tear the past two months, reaching 18 fantasy points in five of six games. Perhaps he was among the bigger disappointments for the first six weeks, but he has been among the top five RBs since then. Brown isn’t doing this solely with touchdowns, either, even though he scored a pair in Week 14. He produced 113 scrimmage yards against the team he faces this week, the Baltimore Ravens, in Week 13, and he is fifth at his position in receptions. Yeah, Samaje Perine took some touches away last week, but that might not matter much. Brown still enjoyed 15 touches. The Bengals are the easiest team for RBs to accrue fantasy points against, but the Ravens are fourth.
McCaffrey should finish as the top running back fantasy scorer this season, with Jahmyr Gibbs finishing second. Gibbs should pass Jonathan Taylor, whom I wouldn’t sit in a fantasy playoff game, but hey, because of the QB situation he may find things more challenging than normal this and every Sunday. Because of his rough start to the season, Brown may not match his 255 fantasy points (15.9 per game) from last season, but he has been above that range for the past six weeks, and he should be in all lineups.
1:11
Is Jaylen Wright worth adding in fantasy?
Eric Karabell explains why fantasy managers should consider adding Jaylen Wright afer his nice game vs. the Jets.
Other RB thoughts:
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I think Miami Dolphins star De’Von Achane (ribs) plays in Pittsburgh on Monday night, but alas, we may not have a finite answer by Sunday morning. So I am a bit surprised Jaylen Wright wasn’t added in more leagues, especially by Achane investors. As of Thursday afternoon, Wright’s roster figure is up only 3.7% from last week to 14.6%, before he ripped the admittedly embarrassing New York Jets for 107 rushing yards and a score in a relief role. These are our playoffs. Have a plan. Really, the Dolphins should throw all over the Pittsburgh Steelers, since they permit the most fantasy points to WRs and third most to TEs. Make sure Jaylen Waddle is in lineups, and if you don’t have one of the top-tier tight ends, we are making the case for Darren Waller, too.
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Next year will be the first big one for New England Patriots rookie TreVeyon Henderson. I may even rank him among the top 10 running backs, depending on what happens with veteran Rhamondre Stevenson. This season, however, we should be wary of both, because they cancel each other out when each is active. Stevenson, averaging 3.2 yards per rush, is not having a good season, but he continues to see relatively equal volume to Henderson, who averages 4.8 yards per tote. Fantasy managers may not like it, but Henderson is hardly guaranteed to shine this month, even against a Bills defense that struggles against the run. Henderson ran for 24 yards in the Week 6 game at Buffalo. Though Henderson has made strides in pass blocking, Stevenson is the proven veteran and the Patriots seem to trust him more in that capacity, still.
Don’t be surprised if … Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Wilson remains a top-five option the rest of the season
The Cardinals face the mighty Houston Texans defense this week, so this prediction may seem odd, but give any receiver a million targets and good things tend to happen. First, I don’t think Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) is playing again this season. The 3-10 Cardinals have locked up last place in the NFC West, and Harrison playing can’t change anything. They struggle to run the football effectively, so journeyman QB Jacoby Brissett slings it 40-something times per game. No, seriously, he averages more than 300 passing yards per game this season. Nobody else is.
Wilson is fantasy’s top WR over the past four weeks, averaging 24.7 fantasy points on 14 targets per game, and there’s little reason to expect things to alter — assuming Harrison sits — even against the top defense. This should be like the Rams game last week, with the Cardinals getting blown out and the winning team caring little about Wilson piling on numbers. Old-timers may recall Billy Volek and Drew Bennett going gangbusters for about a month later in the 2004 season for the Tennessee Titans. This Cardinals deal feels similar.
0:44
Should you start Michael Wilson in Week 15?
Liz Loza discusses why fantasy managers should look forward to starting Michael Wilson in Week 15 if Marvin Harrison Jr. is still sidelined.
Other WR thoughts:
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I find myself discussing this each week, but I view Jacksonville Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers as a WR2 these days. Do you really want to judge him on his numbers with the Raiders? Meyers is thriving with Trevor Lawrence, and this week, the Jaguars get to feast on the lowly Jets. Predicting touchdowns for wide receivers is dangerous, but Meyers certainly has quite the opportunity to make it four games in a row Sunday.
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Ravens WR Zay Flowers looked better against a bad Steelers pass defense in Week 14, catching eight of 11 targets for 124 yards, but he still hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. I don’t really trust him against the Bengals and likely shadow DJ Turner II, since these fellows matched up two weeks ago and Flowers caught two passes for six yards. Also, Lamar Jackson still isn’t right. I like TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to have big games against the Bengals, but not the Baltimore WRs.
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