Sports
‘Climate change shrinking window for record-breaking marathon performances’
KARACHI: A new scientific analysis has warned that climate change is rapidly shrinking the window of “cool days” that allow marathon runners to achieve their best performances, posing an increasing challenge for athletes and organisers of the world’s premier long-distance races.
The report, titled “Running out of cool days: How climate change is decreasing the odds of optimal marathon conditions”, was released by Climate Central ahead of the New York City Marathon.
It examines how rising global temperatures are affecting marathon performance conditions across 221 global races, including all seven Abbott World Marathon Majors.
According to the study, 86% of marathons analysed (190 out of 221) are projected to experience a decline in the odds of ideal running temperatures by 2045. This includes all major races in Tokyo, Boston, Berlin, Chicago, London, New York, and Sydney.
Among the elite male runners, Tokyo currently offers the best odds of ideal race-day conditions, with a 69% chance of hitting the performance “sweet spot”. But that advantage won’t last: the probability is expected to fall by 12 percentage points to 57% by 2045 if emissions continue at current rates.
Elite women, who perform better in warmer temperatures than men, are somewhat more resilient to climate shifts. They currently have a 78% chance of optimal race-day temperatures at Tokyo, rising slightly to 85% by 2045. Still, researchers emphasise that even small changes in average conditions can have significant impacts on elite performance and race safety.
The analysis also found that London offers the most favourable conditions for elite women at present, with an 87% likelihood of optimal temperatures, while Berlin presents one of the least favourable outlooks. By 2045, the odds of ideal conditions for elite female runners in Berlin are expected to drop from 40% to 29%.
The report found that the exceptional heat at the 2025 Tokyo and Berlin Marathons pushed conditions far beyond the optimal range for both recreational and elite runners and that human-caused climate change made those temperatures significantly more likely.
On March 2, 2025, the day of the Tokyo Marathon, the average temperature was 15.2°C (59.4°F), about 8.2°C warmer than normal, reaching a Climate Shift Index (CSI) level of 3, meaning the unusually warm conditions were three times more likely due to climate change.
Similarly, Berlin’s race on September 21, 2025, saw an average temperature of 20.7°C, about 6.7°C warmer than normal, with a CSI level of 2, indicating the heat was twice as likely because of global warming.
“Heat waves are already rewriting race history,” said Climate Central in its release. “For many marathons, what used to be ideal race conditions are becoming the exception rather than the rule”.
Researchers identified precise “sweet spots” for marathon temperatures where runners perform their best. For elite men, that optimal average is 4°C; for elite women, it’s 10°C. Recreational runners perform best at slightly higher temperatures, around 6°C for men and 7°C for women.
The analysis draws from global temperature records, climate model projections, and Climate Central’s proprietary Climate Shift Index to estimate how the probability of ideal temperatures will evolve over time, using future climate scenarios aligned with the SSP3-7.0 pathway.
While the findings show a clear long-term decline in favourable marathon conditions, the report also notes that some adaptations could help mitigate the impacts.
One adaptation measure is to start races earlier in the morning, when daily low temperatures prevail. Researchers found that adjusting race times to sunrise could significantly increase the chances of ideal temperatures for elite men by 44 percentage points in London, 31 points in Tokyo, and 27 points in Boston by 2045.
However, this approach doesn’t benefit all groups equally. Because elite women perform better at slightly higher temperatures, earlier starts could actually reduce their odds of optimal conditions, notably in Tokyo (down 41 points) and Boston (down 18 points).
The Climate Central concludes that reducing fossil fuel pollution remains the only lasting solution to preserve the cool, comfortable race-day conditions that support peak performance and athlete safety.
Around 1.1 million people finish a marathon every year, but as the planet warms, the chances of running in optimal weather are rapidly diminishing even for races in traditionally cool climates.
Veteran marathoners and record holders are already seeing the changes firsthand.
“Climate change has altered the marathon,” said Catherine Ndereba, former marathon world record holder and two-time world champion. “Dehydration is a real risk, and simple miscalculations can end a race before it begins. Every step now carries a message that if we don’t take care of our planet, even our strongest strides will fall short”.
Mhairi Maclennan, the fastest British finisher at the 2024 London Marathon, said ideal race conditions are “slipping away”.
“At the elite level, conditions make or break a performance,” she said. “We train day in, day out for years, only for that elusive target to drift further away as ideal temperatures become rarer”.
Kenyan legend Ibrahim Kipkemboi Hussein, the first Kenyan to win both the New York City (1987) and Boston (1988) marathons, described how races have changed with the warming climate.
“The climate is part of the course now,” Hussein said. “Dehydration and exhaustion come faster; a small mistake in pacing or hydration can cost everything. If we don’t protect the planet, the records of the future and the joy of running itself are at risk”.
For Climate Central, the message is clear: marathoners and their races are on the front lines of a warming world.
While earlier starts and logistical adaptations may buy time, the only sustainable path to preserving record-breaking conditions is to curb global emissions and stabilise the planet’s temperature rise.
“The cool, comfortable race-day conditions that make history are running out,” the report warns. “If we fail to act, the world’s great marathons and the runners who define them will be racing against more than the clock”.
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Tarik Skubal, the Detroit Tigers’ ace and two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner, is set to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow that will keep him sidelined for months, manager A.J. Hinch said on Monday.
Skubal isn’t done for the season, but he is expected to be out two to three months following the surgery to remove loose bodies in his left elbow, ESPN reported.
Hinch called it an “easy process and procedure” while delivering the news, but it’s certainly a blow to the Tigers’ staff and Skubal personally that he is sidelined for months.
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Detroit pitcher Tarik Skubal watches during the Atlanta Braves game on April 29, 2026, at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga. (Rich Von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)
Skubal’s arm locked up during a bullpen session on Sunday ahead of his scheduled start against the Boston Red Sox on Monday night. Now, he will undergo the surgery, with Hinch providing no specific timeline for his return.
Skubal’s last start came in a 4-3 win over the league-leading Atlanta Braves this past Wednesday, where he allowed two runs on five hits across seven innings of work. He struck out seven Braves hitters during his outing.
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However, in that game, Skubal was spotted rubbing his left arm, leading to Hinch and a Tigers trainer going to the mound to check on the pitcher. Skubal, though, remained in the game after tossing a warm-up pitch, and he went on to pitch seven strong innings.
As a result of Skubal being out, the Tigers recalled Ty Madden to the big leagues. Tyler Holton will also be making the spot start on Monday night, serving as the Tigers’ opener before Hinch needs to get creative with his bullpen.
Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal reacts after giving up a hit against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minn., on Aug. 14, 2025. (Jesse Johnson/Imagn Images)
Skubal is the latest Tigers starter to be placed on the injured list, joining Casey Mize and Justin Verlander. That leaves Framber Valdez and Jack Flaherty as the only healthy starters at the moment.
For Skubal, the timing isn’t great, especially with impending free agency looming.
Skubal won a record-breaking arbitration case this offseason, where the Tigers were told to pay the left-handed ace $32 million for the 2026 campaign after they proposed a $19 million salary. The victory beat Juan Soto’s arbitration pay by the New York Yankees in 2024 by $1 million.
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers between pitches during the Braves game at Truist Park in Atlanta on April 29, 2026. (Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)
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But, with no long-term deal in place for Skubal, the electric starter is set to be one of the top free agents after the season, unless he and the Tigers don’t figure something out before then. It seems unlikely that will happen at this point.
All teams interested in Skubal will be watching his recovery and eventual return closely. Until then, Hinch and the Tigers will need others to step up in the meantime for the starting rotation.
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Fernando Mendoza skyrocketed to the top of every NFL pundit’s draft board during the 2025 college football season as the Indiana Hoosiers standout won the Heisman Trophy and led the school to a national championship.
Mendoza’s status stayed clean as the Las Vegas Raiders selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. He will be tasked with returning the franchise back to glory under head coach Klint Kubiak and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is set to serve as Mendoza’s mentor.
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Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza runs through a drill during a rookie minicamp at Intermountain Health Performance Center in Henderson, Nev., on May 2, 2026. (Candice Ward/Imagn Images)
A detractor came out of the woodwork on Monday as an anonymous ACC coach told ESPN that he didn’t believe Mendoza had the “NFL traits.” The coach competed against Mendoza when the quarterback was tossing the pigskin around for the Cal Golden Bears.
“He’s a good decision-maker, but I don’t think he’s got the NFL traits,” the coach told ESPN. “They’re all back-shoulder (throws). That’s not working in the NFL. His receivers made plays to make him look better than he is. In the NFL, those throws are getting picked off.”
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza warms up during a rookie minicamp at Intermountain Health Performance Center in Henderson, Nev., on May 2, 2026. (Candice Ward/Imagn Images)
Mendoza showed grit and determination with some of the throws he made at Indiana. One that comes to mind is the game-winning touchdown pass to Omar Cooper Jr. against Penn State.
Cooper made the catch and an incredible toe-tap for the touchdown with 36 seconds left in the game, which kept Indiana’s dream season alive.
Raiders general manager John Spytek said last month he nixed any talk of trading the No. 1 pick because he was sure Mendoza would be their guy.
“I think any coach is excited to work with a big, athletic, talented thrower that is extremely smart and a very driven worker, and that’s been our experience with Fernando,” Spytek said. “That’s a great starting spot for any quarterback.”
It’s the heart that Mendoza showed throughout the season, including in the national title game against the Miami Hurricanes, that made him an attractive prospect for NFL teams.
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza, selected as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft, attends a news conference at the Raiders Headquarters in Henderson, Nev., on April 24, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
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He had 3,535 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes in his lone season at Indiana.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) on Monday announced the Pakistan Super League (PSL) 11 Team of the Tournament, naming Babar Azam skipper after a title-winning campaign.
The Team of the Tournament comprises three players each from Peshawar Zalmi and Hyderabad Kingsmen, two apiece from Lahore Qalandars and Islamabad United, and one player each from Multan Sultans and Quetta Gladiators.
The selection was made by a five-member panel drawn from the commentary team. The jury also finalised the Emerging Team of the Tournament, recognising the standout young performers of the season.
A total of 44 matches were played from March 26 to May 3 across Lahore and Karachi.
Babar Azam, who lifted his third PSL title as a player and first as captain, finished as the leading run-scorer with 588 runs.
Opening the innings, he also claimed the Hanif Mohammad Cap and equalled the record for most runs in a single PSL season, matching Fakhar Zaman’s tally from 2022.
His campaign featured two centuries in four matches against Quetta Gladiators and Islamabad United.
Peshawar Zalmi are further represented by Kusal Mendis and Sufyan Moqim. Mendis scored 550 runs, including four half-centuries and a century, while also contributing eight dismissals behind the stumps.
His century came against Karachi Kings at the National Bank Stadium on April 9. Left-arm wrist-spinner Sufyan Moqim took 22 wickets at an average of 14.40 and an economy rate of 7.20, earning both Player of the Tournament and Best Bowler honours.
Hyderabad Kingsmen have three representatives in Usman Khan, Hassan Khan and Hunain Shah. Usman finished fourth among the top run-scorers with 389 runs, including a century and three half-centuries.
Hassan contributed 139 runs at a strike rate of 195 alongside six wickets and strong fielding performances. Hunain Shah impressed with 17 wickets in 10 matches, emerging as a key bowler in the latter stages of the competition.
Lahore Qalandars’ Fakhar Zaman and Shaheen Shah Afridi also feature in the XI. Fakhar scored 401 runs to finish third overall, while Shaheen claimed 16 wickets at an economy rate of 7.86.
Multan Sultans’ Shan Masood is included after scoring 367 runs at an average of 45.87 and a strike rate of 158.18. Islamabad United captain Shadab Khan also makes the side after a strong all-round season, scoring 173 runs and taking 17 wickets, earning the Best All-Rounder of the Tournament award.
Teammate Richard Gleeson is selected for his impactful new-ball performances, finishing with 12 wickets at an economy rate of 7.13.
Quetta Gladiators’ Hasan Nawaz has been named as the 12th player after scoring 291 runs.
PSL 11 Team of the Tournament
Babar Azam (Peshawar Zalmi) (c), Fakhar Zaman (Lahore Qalandars), Kusal Mendis (Peshawar Zalmi) (wk), Shan Masood (Multan Sultans), Usman Khan (Hyderabad Kingsmen), Shadab Khan (Islamabad United), Hassan Khan (Hyderabad Kingsmen), Shaheen Shah Afridi (Lahore Qalandars), Hunain Shah (Hyderabad Kingsmen), Sufyan Moqim (Peshawar Zalmi), Richard Gleeson (Islamabad United) and Hasan Nawaz (Quetta Gladiators) (12th player).
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