Connect with us

Business

Commercial real estate deal volume drops for the first time in nearly two years

Published

on

Commercial real estate deal volume drops for the first time in nearly two years


A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.

The recovery in commercial real estate has been slow and bumpy, much like interest rate policy over the past few years. The two, of course, are deeply connected. 

After gaining significant momentum coming out of the pandemic, this year has been rough. October was the first month of negative year-over-year transaction volume growth since the post-Fed rate hike recovery began in early 2024, according to monthly data provided by Moody’s as a media exclusive to CNBC’s Property Play. It tracks the top 50 commercial real estate, or CRE, property sales across the U.S.

Deal volume growth turned positive in the early part of last year and was even approaching pre-Covid levels by year-end. 

“More than an imminent downturn in the CRE capital markets, the slip to negative growth in October 2025 reflects the stalemate going on between buyers and sellers,” said Kevin Fagan, head of CRE capital market research at Moody’s. “The bottom of the U-shaped recovery from 2023 low volumes has been lengthened by persistently high interest rates and policy and economic uncertainty of 2025.” 

But October was still an active month. There were $24.4 billion of sales, which is roughly 70% of October 2019 sales. Total dollar volume is still higher this year than it was last year, but the momentum of growth has slowed significantly since 2023.

Looking at specific property trends, industrial and multifamily led the top 50 deals. The only sector to improve in deal volume compared with last year was hotel. It saw 6% growth after a negative third quarter.

One notable sale: The New York Edition hotel at 5 Madison Avenue was sold for $231.2 million by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, a sovereign wealth fund, to the Kam Sang Company, a real estate development firm. 

“The New York Edition hotel is an interesting one because of both the sales price being so high, a Mideast sovereign wealth fund pulling out of NYC, and the history of the building,” said Fagan, noting that it was originally an office building called the MetLife Clock Tower and was the tallest building in the world for roughly three years from 1910 to 1913. 

Met Life clock tower and pedestrian bridge, Madison Avenue, New York.

Education Images | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Both the Clock Tower and the Woolworth building, which was also once the tallest in the world, were converted to hotel and residential, respectively, starting around 2013. 

“They are nearly worthless as offices, but extremely valuable as a hotel and an apartment building, respectively,” Fagan added.

Meanwhile the multifamily segment saw the biggest pullback in October, down 27% from 2024. It had been showing volumes that were higher than pre-Covid levels in the four months before, and, despite the pullback, buildings were mostly trading at a premium to previous sales.

Get Property Play directly to your inbox

CNBC’s Property Play with Diana Olick covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, delivered weekly to your inbox.

Subscribe here to get access today.

Office continued its rocky recovery, with either discounts or property conversions as part of the story. 

The top October sale was of the Sotheby’s headquarters to Weill Cornell, which probably means a repurposing to health care or medical office, according to Fagan.

New York Life picked up a distressed Manhattan office building from BGO for almost half of its last sale price in 2015. 

“It shows there is institutional interest in offices sold at discounts, reinforcing the long-term value floor for office buildings in good markets, and the recognized enduring utility of such properties,” Fagan said.



Source link

Business

From Manufacturing To Infra And AI: Capex Boost Flags Off Budget 2026 ‘Reforms Express’

Published

on

From Manufacturing To Infra And AI: Capex Boost Flags Off Budget 2026 ‘Reforms Express’


Last Updated:

Budget 2026: FM Nirmala Sitharaman gives a strong push to manufacturing, infrastructure and job creation, while proposing a simpler tax and customs system.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents the Union Budget 2026-27.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents the Union Budget 2026-27.

Budget 2026 Takeaways: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday presented the Union Budget 2026-27, giving a strong push to manufacturing, infrastructure and job creation, proposing a simpler tax and customs regime, and hailing the government’s modernisation drive as a “reforms express”.

The Budget 2026 is anchored around three ‘kartavyas’ — driving growth by enhancing productivity and competitiveness, building people’s capacity, and ensuring inclusive development under the vision of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikaas.

In her ninth consecutive Budget in Parliament, Sitharaman laid out a multi-pronged strategy to sustain growth amid global uncertainty, including expanding domestic electronics and semiconductor capabilities, de-risking infrastructure projects, skilling India’s youth for emerging technologies, and easing compliance for taxpayers and importers.

Here are the key takeaways from Budget 2026 across manufacturing, infrastructure, skills, AI, taxation and customs duty.

Manufacturing Gets A Boost

Budget 2026 put a special emphasis on the manufacturing landscape in India. The outlay for electronics components manufacturing was raised sharply to Rs 40,000 crore, while new schemes for rare earth magnets, chemical parks, container manufacturing and capital goods seek to reduce import dependency, and strengthen domestic supply chains. Textiles got an integrated, employment-oriented package covering fibres, clusters, skilling and sustainability.

Infrastructure-Led Growth

Infrastructure got a boost with a higher capex allocation and initiatives like a risk guarantee fund to de-risk projects for private developers, new dedicated freight corridors and national waterways, dedicated REITs (real estate investment trusts) for recycling of significant real estate assets of central public sector enterprises (CPSEs), and a seaplane VGF (viability gap funding) scheme.

The Centre’s capital expenditure (capex) target has been increased to Rs 12.2 lakh crore for FY27, up from Rs 11.2 lakh crore earmarked for the current financial year. Moreover, maintaining the fiscal discipline, Sitharaman said the government expects the fiscal deficit to be at 4.3 per cent of the GDP in 2026-27, lower than 4.4 per cent projected for the current financial year.

Tier-II and Tier-III cities were placed at the centre of urban growth via City Economic Regions, backed by reform-linked funding.

“We shall continue to focus on developing infrastructure in cities with over 5 lakh population (Tier II and Tier III), which have expanded to become growth centres,” Sitharaman said in her Budget Speech.

Greater Emphasis On Skilling

The Budget placed renewed emphasis on the services economy as a jobs engine. A high-powered Education-to-Employment and Enterprise Committee will realign skilling with market needs, including the impact of emerging technologies.

Content creation and creative industries get a boost through AVGC labs in schools and colleges, support for animation, gaming and comics, and new institutional capacity for design and hospitality. Tourism-linked skilling, from guides to digital heritage documentation, signals a clear intent to convert culture and content into employment and exports.

“I propose to support the Indian Institute of Creative Technologies, Mumbai in setting up AVGC Content Creator Labs in 15,000 secondary schools and 500 colleges,” FM Sitharaman said. AVGC stands for animation, visual effects, gaming and comics.

AI & Semiconductors Push

Artificial intelligence (AI) was positioned as a cross-sector force multiplier rather than a standalone theme. The Budget provided a push to artificial intelligence (AI) by promoting adoption with governance, agriculture, education and skilling, including proposals for AI-enabled advisory tools for farmers and AI integration in education curricula.

On hardware, the semiconductor strategy expanded decisively under ISM 2.0 (India Semiconductor Mission 2.0), with focus on domestic equipment manufacturing, materials, research centres and workforce development, signalling a long-term commitment to building a resilient chip ecosystem in India.

Taxation, ITR, TDS, TCS

A major structural reform comes with the Income Tax Act, 2025, effective April 1, 2026, containing simpler rules and redesigned forms.

Budget 2026 provided compliance relief for individuals, including extended timelines for revising returns to March 31 from December 31 earlier, staggered ITR due dates, and easier filing of Form 15G/15H through depositories.

Individuals with ITR-1 and ITR-2 returns will continue to file till July 31, and non-audit business cases or trusts are proposed to be allowed time till August 31, according to the Budget Speech 2026-27.

“I propose to extend time available for revising returns from 31st December to up to 31st March with the payment of a nominal fee. I also propose to stagger the timeline for filing of tax returns. Individuals with ITR 1 and ITR 2 returns will continue to file till 31st July and non-audit business cases or trusts are proposed to be allowed time till 31st August,” Sitharaman said.

TDS (Tax deducted at source) rules were clarified for manpower services, while a rule-based system for lower or nil TDS certificates is proposed. TCS rates were cut to 2% for overseas tour packages, education and medical expenses under liberalised remittance scheme (LRS). Litigation is targeted through integrated assessment and penalty orders, lower pre-deposit requirements, and wider immunity provisions.

TDS on the sale of immovable property by a non-resident will be deducted and deposited through resident buyer’s PAN (Permanent Account Number)-based challan instead of requiring TAN (Tax Deduction and Collection Account Number), Sitharaman said.

Customs Duty Tweaks

Customs duty rationalisation continued with a clear focus on domestic manufacturing, energy transition and ease of living. Exemptions have been extended or introduced for capital goods used in lithium-ion batteries, critical minerals processing, nuclear power projects and aircraft manufacturing.

Personal imports will become cheaper with a reduction in duty on goods for personal use from 20% to 10%. Seventeen cancer drugs and additional rare-disease treatments were exempted from customs duty. Process reforms aimed at trust-based, tech-driven clearances, faster cargo movement and lower compliance costs, especially for exporters and MSMEs (micro, small, medium and enterprises).

STT On F&O Hiked

The Budget increased securities transaction tax (STT) on futures trading from 0.02% to 0.05% and on options trading from 0.10% to 0.15%, a move that upset the capital markets with the BSE Sensex crashing more than 2,300 points from the day’s high and the NSE Nifty dropping to 24,571.75.

Securities Transaction Tax (STT) is a direct tax imposed on the buying and selling of securities in India.

Commenting on the Budget, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “The Union Budget reflects the aspirations of 140 crore Indians. It strengthens the reform journey and charts a clear roadmap for Viksit Bharat.”

News business economy From Manufacturing To Infra And AI: Capex Boost Flags Off Budget 2026 ‘Reforms Express’
Disclaimer: Comments reflect users’ views, not News18’s. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Read More



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

‘Holistic And Forward-Looking’: Piyush Goyal Says Budget 2026 Reflects Future-Ready India

Published

on

‘Holistic And Forward-Looking’: Piyush Goyal Says Budget 2026 Reflects Future-Ready India


Last Updated:

Piyush Goyal termed the Budget “economically and fundamentally very strong”, and stated that it “reflects the aspirations of the youth of the country”.

Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal. (File photo)

Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal. (File photo)

Union Minister Piyush Goyal on Sunday termed Budget 2026 “futuristic and holistic”, and stated that it “reflects the aspirations of the youth of the country and is forward-looking”.

Speaking exclusively to CNN-News18 on Budget 2026, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Goyal said, “This is a fabulous budget and it is very futuristic. The Budget 2026 has covered all sectors including technology, infrastructure, etc.”

“The technology sector has been given a thrust. The budget focuses on infrastructure. It is a holistic and forward-looking budget refecting future ready Bharat,” he said, adding, “The budget meets the aspirations of the youth and new India.”

Stating that the Budget is economically and fundamentally very strong, the Union Minister said, “Farmers, animal husbandry and labour-intensive sectors get a major push as this Budget focuses on investment, value addition and jobs.”

‘Budget 2026 Is Human-Centric’: PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday said that the Union Budget 2026 is “human-centric and strengthens India’s foundation with path-breaking reforms.” The Prime Minister also described it as historic and a catalyst for accelerating the country’s reform trajectory and long-term growth.

Following the presentation of the Budget in Parliament, PM Modi said the proposals would energise the economy, empower citizens and give India’s youth fresh opportunities to scale new heights.

“This budget brings the dreams of the present to life and strengthens the foundation of India’s bright future. This budget is a strong foundation for our high-flying aspirations of a developed India by 2047,” he said.

Calling the government’s reform agenda a “Reform Express”, the Prime Minister added, “The reform express that India is riding today will gain new energy and new momentum from this budget.”

News business ‘Holistic And Forward-Looking’: Piyush Goyal Says Budget 2026 Reflects Future-Ready India
Disclaimer: Comments reflect users’ views, not News18’s. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Read More





Source link

Continue Reading

Business

How inflation rebound is set to affect UK interest rates

Published

on

How inflation rebound is set to affect UK interest rates


Interest rates are widely expected to remain at 3.75% as Bank of England policymakers prioritise curbing above-target inflation while also monitoring economic growth, according to expert analysis.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is anticipated to leave borrowing costs unchanged when it announces its latest decision on Thursday, marking its first interest rate setting meeting of the year.

This follows a rate cut delivered before Christmas, which was the fourth such reduction.

At the time, Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the UK had “passed the recent peak in inflation and it has continued to fall”, enabling the MPC to ease borrowing costs. However, he cautioned that any further cuts would be a “closer call”.

Since that decision, official data has revealed that inflation unexpectedly rebounded in December, rising for the first time in five months.

How the UK interest rate has changed in recent years

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate reached 3.4% for the month, an increase from 3.2% in November, with factors such as tobacco duties and airfares contributing to the upward pressure on prices.

Economists suggest this inflation uptick is likely to reinforce the MPC’s inclination to keep rates steady this month.

Philip Shaw, an analyst for Investec, stated: “The principal reason to hold off from easing again is that at 3.4% in December, inflation remains well above the 2% target.”

He added: “But with the stance of policy less restrictive than previously, there are greater risks that further easing is unwarranted.”

Shaw also highlighted other data points the MPC would consider, including gross domestic product (GDP), which saw a return to growth of 0.3% in November – a potentially encouraging sign for policymakers.

Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, affirmed: “Keeping bank rate unchanged at 3.75% at next week’s meeting looks a near-certainty.”

The rate of inflation in recent years

The rate of inflation in recent years

He noted that while some MPC members who favoured a cut in December still have concerns about persistent wage growth and inflation, recent data has not been compelling enough to prompt back-to-back reductions.

Edward Allenby, senior economic advisor at Oxford Economics, forecasts the next rate cut to occur in April.

He explained: “The MPC will continue to face a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and preventing inflation from becoming entrenched, with forthcoming data on pay settlements likely to play a decisive role in shaping the next policy move.”

The Bank’s policymakers have consistently voiced concerns regarding the pace of wage increases in the UK, which can fuel overall inflation.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending