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As the Indianapolis Colts fought their way through a tight game against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10, they threw their game plan out the window once the game reached overtime.

In the NFL’s first game played in Berlin, the Colts took possession with 7:29 left in the extra period, and they did what everyone in the stadium knew they’d do: They gave the ball to Jonathan Taylor.

The league’s leading rusher had taken over the game late in regulation, scoring on an 83-yard run in the fourth quarter, and his dominance then spilled over into overtime. The Colts ran seven offensive plays in overtime. Six of them were Taylor runs. Taylor ended the affair with a walk-off touchdown with 3:36 remaining, finishing off a 244-yard, three-touchdown performance and adding fuel to the idea that he is a leading candidate for Most Valuable Player.

“You can feel it on the sidelines calling the game when guys are rolling,” coach Shane Steichen said. “He was rolling.”

It was a statement game in Taylor’s bid for MVP, but he’s far from a shoo-in.

In fact, Taylor has plenty of competition, including from Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Colts and Chiefs meet Sunday in a pivotal AFC game in Kansas City (1 p.m., ET, CBS). As two of the prime candidates for MVP share the same field, others will be stating their cases elsewhere.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is a +150 favorite to win MVP, according to ESPN BET. The next-shortest odds are on New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye at +175, followed by Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+550), Taylor (+750) and Mahomes (+2200).

The 37-year-old Stafford is trying to become the oldest player to win MVP. The 23-year-old Maye could become one of the youngest. Taylor is trying to become the first running back to win since the Minnesota Vikings’ Adrian Peterson 13 years ago. Ultimately, one of those players could make history.

Here’s a closer look at the race with Rams reporter Sarah Barshop, Patriots reporter Mike Reiss, Bills reporter Alaina Getzenberg and Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor breaking it down, and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado providing unique insight.

Reason he might win it: The three-game stretch against the Jaguars, Saints and 49ers from Weeks 7 through 10 showed exactly how good Stafford and the Rams’ offense have been at times this season. In those three games, Stafford had 13 touchdowns passes and zero interceptions, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for four or more touchdowns and have zero interceptions in three consecutive games.

In fact, his historic streak dates back seven games. He has 22 touchdown passes and no picks in those games, which are the most TD passes without an interception over a seven-game span in NFL history.

Reason he might fall short: For as good as that three-game stretch was for Stafford, he and the Rams’ offense had a game Sunday that wasn’t up to their standards, according to wide receiver Davante Adams. Although the 21-19 win was against an excellent Seahawks defense, the Rams’ running game had almost as many yards (119) as Stafford had passing (130). The Rams have a well-rounded offense and could rely more on Kyren Williams and the ground game.

And although Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career, he also has never really been in the MVP conversation. Stafford is ninth in career passing yards and passing touchdowns but has never finished higher than eighth in MVP voting. — Barshop

Is the +150 price right? Stafford is priced like a leader because of one stat, 27 passing touchdowns, which leads the NFL. But the rest? He’s not in the top three in yards or efficiency, has no rushing volume, and the Rams are winning but not dominating. He’s priced this high only because voters love touchdown volume and because the Rams have a believable path to a 12-win season.

His profile, though, is high variance. When Stafford plays well, he’s spectacular, but when he’s off or plays a competent defense, he looks mortal, as shown by his 19-of-33, 57% completion performance against the Eagles. In other words, Stafford is overpriced. His current stat lines don’t justify being ahead of Maye in the race, making him vulnerable. — Maldonado

Reason he might win it: With Maye playing a leading role, the Patriots are tied for the NFL’s best record at 9-2 and have won eight straight games. He leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.9%) and passing yards (2,836) and is second in passer rating (113.2) behind only Lamar Jackson (115.5).

In averaging 8.6 air yards per attempt this season, Maye is just the second player since ESPN began tracking air yards in 2006 to complete 70% of his passes and average 8.5 air yards per attempt through his team’s first 11 games (minimum 200 pass attempts). The other player is Peyton Manning, who did it in 2009, when he was named MVP.

Reason he might fall short: He has five interceptions and lost two fumbles, which is an MVP-caliber pace but more than double the total picks for Stafford (2). Degree of difficulty could also work against him in a tiebreaker-type scenario as the Patriots’ schedule was filled with mostly lower-echelon teams. That shines a brighter spotlight on December games against the Buffalo Bills (home) and Baltimore Ravens (road), possibly giving Maye less margin for error in his case for MVP consideration. — Reiss

Is the +185 price right? This is the one price that makes complete sense. Maye has the volume, explosive plays and, most importantly, the rookie-turnaround storyline that voters love. You can poke holes in the wins, but you can’t poke holes in Maye’s production. New England is leading the AFC East, but is it in the same tier as AFC’s heavyweights? The Patriots are winning but not in a way that suggests they’re built to run through Baltimore, Kansas City, Indy or even Denver in January.

The game logs and scoring margins all say that New England is grinding, making Maye’s price fair. He probably closes as the favorite if the Patriots finish with 12-plus wins. — Maldonado

Reason he might win it: The reigning MVP is once again willing the Bills’ offense to success with his arm and his legs, and that was on display in his six-touchdown performance in the win vs. the Buccaneers on Sunday. Despite a corps of receiving options that has been lacking throughout the season and many players moving in and out of the lineup due to injury, Allen has reminded what he is capable of. No Bills receiver is on track for 1,000 receiving yards or has caught more than four touchdowns.

Allen has 28 combined passing and rushing touchdowns this season, his most through 10 games in his career (he had 21 through 10 last season).

Reason he might fall short: Turnovers and the Bills’ run game. After setting near impossible-to-repeat turnover numbers in 2024 (six interceptions and two fumbles), he has already thrown seven interceptions and lost one fumble. At times this year, his decision-making has not been what he displayed last season in part due to the issues with the receivers. The success of the run game could also hurt Allen’s case as running back James Cook III and the offensive line are putting up big numbers with the team leading the NFL in rushing yards per game (147.6). Cook is on pace for a career season and is having a larger role in the offense with 18.2 attempts per game, up from 12.9 in 2024. — Getzenberg

Is the +550 price right? The odds don’t match the real output. Allen’s numbers are good but not MVP level. His interception count alone removes him from the top tier. His passing totals aren’t leading anything and the Bills’ inconsistency weakens his résumé further. The price is about voter familiarity, ceiling outcomes, highlight plays and market bias toward his best version. I’d say this is the most mispriced play near the top of the MVP board.

His odds reflect hope rather than production. — Maldonado

Reason he might win it: Impact. Taylor arguably has more of it than any skill player in the NFL this season. You can judge it by his propensity for finding the end zone, with his 15 rushing scores leading the NFL. Taylor, on average, scores a touchdown every 12.6 rushes.

Then, there’s his explosiveness. Taylor’s 28 runs of 10 yards or longer is second in the NFL (Miami’s De’Von Achane is No. 1 with 29) and an impressive 30.7% of his rushing attempts result in a first down. There have been three rushes of 80 yards or longer in the NFL this season, and Taylor has two of them. He also leads the league with a 6.0 yards-per-carry average.

Jonathan Taylor turned the game around with one run 🤯

🔹 78 rush yards over expected
🔹 81.8 yards after contact
🔹 +30.5% win probability added

(via @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/aiBvDRscLb

— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) November 9, 2025

Reason he might fall short: For one, he’s a running back. Taylor would have to buck some significant history to become the first running back to win MVP since Peterson in 2012. Running backs have won just four times since 2000, and the award has increasingly become quarterback-centric with the evolution of rules that cater to the passing game.

Running backs are also vulnerable to game situations. If the Colts trail in a game, as they did against Pittsburgh in Week 9, Taylor could wind up with another game where he is sparsely used. He had a season-low 14 carries in that game for 45 yards. — Holder

Is the +650 price right? Taylor’s season is outrageous. He leads in rushing yards, rushing scores and explosive runs, and is sitting at over 1,100 yards in 10 games with 15 scores. That’s elite production, no doubt.

The problem is the odds don’t actually match the reality of the award. Running backs win MVP only when the season is historic and the QB field fades. Taylor is having an elite year but not historic enough (yet) — not unless he pushes toward 2,000 yards and 20-plus scores and Indy wins 13 games. — Maldonado

Reason he might win it: Mahomes is more than talented enough to go on a heater, one where he leads the Chiefs to seven consecutive victories to help the team finish with a 12-5 record. The Chiefs don’t have a strong running attack, so Mahomes’ arm will be relied on heavily, which could lead to him leading the league in touchdown passes.

Entering Week 12, Mahomes is seventh in the league with 18 touchdowns. One area where Mahomes will have to improve is intermediate passes. In the loss to the Broncos on Sunday, Mahomes completed only one of nine passes where the ball went 15 or more yards downfield, his second-worst completion percentage (11%) on those throws in his career (minimum five attempts).

Reason he might fall short: Mahomes has struggled more often than usual, especially on the road. In five games away from Arrowhead Stadium, Mahomes has committed three turnovers and been sacked 10 times.

The Chiefs not winning the AFC West for the first time in 10 years is also not going to be favorable for Mahomes’ chances. At this point, there are other talented players who are performing at a more consistent level, including Stafford, Taylor and Maye. — Taylor

Is the +2200 price right? The odds match the stats, but the market is overreacting to fatigue. Mahomes is not playing like an MVP, with six interceptions to go with the TD passes. His efficiency has been inconsistent, and Kansas City has real flaws. Mahomes is priced correctly based on production.

The problem is the market is assuming the Chiefs won’t rip off a 6-1 finish and jump to the 1-seed. If they do, then Mahomes rockets to the top overnight. If they don’t, his chances are dead.

Right now, the stats reflect a non-MVP season, and the price reflects the Mahomes tax being removed, making him the one long shot who can still nuke the board. — Maldonado