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Downside risk to near-term outlook from US govt shutdown: Treasury

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Downside risk to near-term outlook from US govt shutdown: Treasury



US economic growth solidified in the third quarter (Q3) this year, with steady business investment and consumer demand, data received till September 30 suggest, but each week of the unnecessary government shutdown is adding drag to the fourth quarter (Q4 2025) gross domestic product (GDP) and introduces downside risk to the near-term outlook.

Artificial intelligence (AI) could have disruptive impacts on the economy and labour markets as businesses and individuals integrate it or fail to, according to the Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.

US economic growth solidified in Q3 2025, with steady business investment and consumer demand, but each week of the unnecessary government shutdown is adding drag to Q4 GDP and introduces downside risk to the near-term outlook, the Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee said.
AI could disrupt the economy and labour markets as businesses and individuals integrate it or fail to.

Yields on US Treasury notes and bills eased over Q3 2025 and labour markets stabilised in July and August, with modest employment growth consistent with that of Q2, the statement said.

Forced deportation and voluntary self-deportation of illegal immigrants has reduced labour supply, but labour demand has similarly decreased. This has kept aggregate labour markets roughly in balance.

With modest hiring but low layoff rates, firms appear to be planning for output growth via productivity improvements, a release from the treasury department said.

In just July and August, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were up by 2.8 per cent at an annual rate, picking up modestly from the Q2 figure.

Total payroll job growth averaged 51,000 per month during July and August, after averaging 55,000 per month during Q2 2025. The slower growth from the second to third quarters, however, partly reflected the shedding of federal government jobs—with a monthly average decrease of 12,500 in federal employment.

By contrast, private sector job creation remained steady at 58,000 jobs per month in July and August. Although this growth rate is below the roughly 100,000 jobs added per month in Q1 2025, it likely reflects the drop in population growth related to the forced and self-deportation of illegal immigrants, the release noted.

From May 2024 to July 2025, monthly unemployment rates fluctuated within a narrow range of 4 per cent and 4.2 per cent. In August, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 per cent of the labour force, and the average for July and August was 4.29 per cent.

Unemployment rates in Q3 2025 remained just below the Congressional Budget Office’s 4.4-per cent estimate of the non-cyclical unemployment rate—or the rate of unemployment that is consistent with stable inflation and excludes fluctuations in aggregate demand.

Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges remained low. Private-sector layoffs and discharges accounted for just 1.3 per cent of employment in July and August, in line with the low rates that persisted during President Donald Trump’s first term before the pandemic.

Inflation remained above the target of 2 per cent in Q3 2025. As of September 2025, CPI inflation was 3 per cent on a twelve-month basis. The elevated annual growth partly reflects the strong price pressures from September 2024 to January 2025, in which headline CPI rose by 4.1 per cent at an annualised rate. From January 2025 to September 2025, CPI growth was more moderate at 2.5 per cent at an annual rate.

Monthly core CPI inflation averaged 0.3 per cent in Q3 2025. Over the twelve months through September 2025, the core inflation rate was 3 per cent. So far this year, annual core inflation has ranged between 2.8 per cent and 3.1 per cent, save for the 3.3-per cent rating realised in January from when President Trump assumed office.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



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Rupee at 95/$: What it means for India’s textile sector

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Rupee at 95/$: What it means for India’s textile sector



The Indian rupee’s breach of the ₹95/$ mark is more than a currency headline; it is a structural shift that will ripple across sourcing, costing, exports, and demand in the textile and apparel (T&A) industry. With the currency logging its worst annual fall in 14 years, nearly 10–11 per cent depreciation in FY26, the sector now faces a dual reality: short-term export gains and long-term cost inflation risks.

A perfect storm behind the rupee slide

The current depreciation is not cyclical; it is geopolitical and structural.

The Indian rupee’s sharp fall is creating a dual impact, boosting export competitiveness while simultaneously inflating input, energy, and logistics costs.
MMF segments are most exposed, as import dependence erodes margin gains from currency depreciation.
Demand weakness in the US and EU limits the benefit of improved pricing, creating a cost–demand mismatch.

  • Oil shock from Middle East conflict: Brent crude surged past $110–115/barrel, sharply increasing India’s import bill
  • Foreign capital outflows: Over $19 billion exited Indian equities, pressuring the currency
  • Strong US dollar and high interest rates: Capital shifting towards dollar assets
  • Trade and geopolitical uncertainty: Weakening investor confidence and export outlook

Together, these forces have pushed the rupee to record lows, with risks of further depreciation if conditions persist.

The Indian rupee’s fall past ₹95 per US dollar marks its steepest annual decline in 14 years, representing a critical moment for the textile and apparel (T&A) industry, reshaping cost structures, export competitiveness, and sourcing strategies simultaneously. While a weaker rupee traditionally boosts exporters by improving rupee realisations on dollar-denominated sales and enhancing India’s price competitiveness against peers like Bangladesh and Vietnam, the current depreciation is occurring alongside a sharp rise in crude oil prices and global uncertainty, creating a far more complex operating environment.

The industry’s heavy dependence on imported inputs, particularly in the man-made fibre (MMF) value chain, including polyester, PTA, MEG, dyes, and specialty chemicals, means that the currency shock is directly translating into higher raw material costs. This is further compounded by rising energy and logistics expenses, as fuel-linked inflation drives up power tariffs, freight rates, and processing costs across spinning, dyeing, and finishing segments. As a result, the initial export margin gains are already being diluted, especially for MMF-based manufacturers and vertically integrated players with significant import exposure.

At the same time, rupee volatility is intensifying working capital pressures across the value chain. Higher input costs are inflating inventory values, while fluctuating exchange rates are making export realisations less predictable and increasing the cost of hedging. For small and mid-sized enterprises, this could tighten liquidity cycles and increase dependence on short-term financing.

On the demand side, the situation remains equally challenging: key export markets such as the US and EU are grappling with inflation, cautious consumer spending, and elevated retail inventories, limiting order visibility despite improved pricing competitiveness from India. This creates a structural paradox where Indian suppliers are more cost-effective globally yet face subdued demand and heightened price resistance from international buyers.

Segment-wise, cotton textiles stand relatively insulated due to lower import dependency, whereas MMF and synthetic segments face the sharpest cost pressures, and garment exporters operate in a narrow margin band between currency gains and demand weakness.

In response, the industry is already undergoing strategic recalibration. Manufacturers are gradually shifting towards cotton and blended products to reduce exposure to volatile petrochemical inputs, while also strengthening foreign exchange risk management through increased hedging. There is a renewed push towards supply chain localisation, particularly for chemicals and trims, alongside efforts to renegotiate pricing with global buyers though with limited success in a demand-constrained environment.

Looking ahead, much will depend on the trajectory of crude oil prices, the potential for further rupee depreciation towards the ₹100/$ mark, and the effectiveness of policy interventions in stabilising currency markets. Ultimately, the rupee’s sharp fall is proving to be a double-edged sword for the T&A sector: offering short-term export advantages, but simultaneously accelerating cost inflation and exposing structural vulnerabilities, thereby forcing companies to prioritise efficiency, agility, and financial discipline in an increasingly volatile global trade landscape.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DL)



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China’s Anta Sports posts record $11.62 bn revenue in 2025

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China’s Anta Sports posts record .62 bn revenue in 2025



China’s Anta Sports Products Limited has reported robust financial performance for 2025 ended December 31, with revenue rising 13.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to a record RMB 80.22 billion (~$11.62 billion), reinforcing its leadership in China’s sportswear market and strengthening its global standing among the top three industry players.

The operating profit increased by 15 per cent to RMB 19.09 billion (~$2.77 billion), while operating margin improved to 23.8 per cent, reflecting strong operational efficiency. Profit attributable to shareholders rose 13.9 per cent to RMB 13.59 billion, excluding one-off gains related to the Amer Sports listing.

Anta Sports has reported revenue of RMB 80.22 billion (~$11.62 billion) in 2025, up 13.3 per cent, strengthening its China market leadership with a 21.8 per cent share.
Operating profit rose 15 per cent, supported by margin improvement and strong growth across brands, especially Fila and Descente.
Solid cash flow, rising R&D investment, and ESG progress further reinforced its global top three position.

The company further expanded its domestic dominance, achieving an estimated market share of around 21.8 per cent, according to industry data. The company’s core ANTA brand generated revenue of RMB 34.75 billion, up 3.7 per cent, with operating profit reaching RMB 7.21 billion, maintaining steady growth, Anta Sports said in a press release.

Fila continued to outperform within the premium sports fashion segment, with revenue increasing 6.9 per cent to RMB 28.47 billion and operating profit rising 10.1 per cent to RMB 7.42 billion. Meanwhile, other brands delivered standout growth, with revenue surging 59.2 per cent to RMB 17 billion and operating profit climbing 55.3 per cent to RMB 4.74 billion. Notably, Descente’s retail sales surpassed RMB 10 billion for the first time.

The group’s financial position remained strong, with free cash flow of RMB 16.11 billion and a net cash position of approximately RMB 31.72 billion at year-end, underscoring its balance sheet strength and liquidity.

Anta also continued to invest in long-term capabilities. Research and development spending rose to RMB 2.2 billion, supported by the rollout of its AI365 strategy aimed at integrating artificial intelligence across the value chain. The company expanded its workforce to over 69,100 employees and supported nearly 300,000 direct and indirect jobs.

On the sustainability front, Anta achieved inclusion in the Hang Seng ESG 50 Index and improved its MSCI ESG rating to ‘AA’. Its total charitable contributions exceeded RMB 800 million in 2025, taking cumulative donations beyond RMB 3.5 billion.

The company’s strong financial and operational performance highlights its ability to scale profitably while investing in innovation, sustainability and brand equity, further consolidating its leadership in China’s highly competitive sportswear market.

Ding Shizhong, executive director and board chairman of Anta Sports, said, “In 2025, amid a complex and rapidly changing environment, we once again delivered resilient growth by staying true to our single focus, multi-brand, globalization strategy. Each of our brands delivered differentiated, high-quality growth. Growth is the best corporate culture, but it is not about simple expansion of scale.”

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UK commits $1.25 mn to trade facilitation programme for 2026–29

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UK commits .25 mn to trade facilitation programme for 2026–29



The United Kingdom recently committed £950,000 (~$1.25 million) in funding for the ‘Accelerate Trade Facilitation’ programme for the 2026-2029 period.

The programme is jointly implemented by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Customs Organization and UK Customs.

The UK has committed around $1.25 million in funding for the ‘Accelerate Trade Facilitation’ programme for the 2026-2029 period.
The programme is jointly implemented by UNCTAD, the World Customs Organization and UK Customs.
The latest phase will expand the programme’s capacity-building activities and introduce the Reform Tracker tool to up to three additional countries.

For more than a decade, the programme has supported over 30 economies to speed up the movement of goods and strengthen cooperation between the public and private sectors.

“We will build on the strong and sustained impact achieved by partner countries over the last 11 years of the programme, strengthening national trade facilitation committees and driving practical, lasting reforms that make trade simpler, faster and more inclusive while supporting economic growth,” said Megan Shaw, deputy director of international customs and border engagement at UK Customs in an UNCTAD release.

The programme will continue to place national trade facilitation committees (NTFCs) at the core of its work. NTFCs serve as coordination platforms where government agencies and businesses identify bottlenecks, agree on priorities and advance trade facilitation reforms.

UNCTAD has supported them through specialised training, including via its trade facilitation e-learning platform, and practical tools such as the Reform Tracker. The tool helps countries monitor progress on trade facilitation reforms and keep society-wide collaborators aligned.

“These reforms contribute to a trading environment that is faster, cheaper, more transparent and more predictable—conditions that help businesses compete and grow,” said Angel Gonzalez Sanz, officer-in-charge of UNCTAD’s division on technology and logistics.

The 2026-2029 phase will expand the programme’s capacity-building activities and introduce the Reform Tracker to up to three additional countries.

These efforts will help deepen digitalisation and improve coordination between border agencies—measures crucial to reducing costs and processing times for traders.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



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