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Downside risk to near-term outlook from US govt shutdown: Treasury

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Downside risk to near-term outlook from US govt shutdown: Treasury



US economic growth solidified in the third quarter (Q3) this year, with steady business investment and consumer demand, data received till September 30 suggest, but each week of the unnecessary government shutdown is adding drag to the fourth quarter (Q4 2025) gross domestic product (GDP) and introduces downside risk to the near-term outlook.

Artificial intelligence (AI) could have disruptive impacts on the economy and labour markets as businesses and individuals integrate it or fail to, according to the Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.

US economic growth solidified in Q3 2025, with steady business investment and consumer demand, but each week of the unnecessary government shutdown is adding drag to Q4 GDP and introduces downside risk to the near-term outlook, the Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee said.
AI could disrupt the economy and labour markets as businesses and individuals integrate it or fail to.

Yields on US Treasury notes and bills eased over Q3 2025 and labour markets stabilised in July and August, with modest employment growth consistent with that of Q2, the statement said.

Forced deportation and voluntary self-deportation of illegal immigrants has reduced labour supply, but labour demand has similarly decreased. This has kept aggregate labour markets roughly in balance.

With modest hiring but low layoff rates, firms appear to be planning for output growth via productivity improvements, a release from the treasury department said.

In just July and August, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were up by 2.8 per cent at an annual rate, picking up modestly from the Q2 figure.

Total payroll job growth averaged 51,000 per month during July and August, after averaging 55,000 per month during Q2 2025. The slower growth from the second to third quarters, however, partly reflected the shedding of federal government jobs—with a monthly average decrease of 12,500 in federal employment.

By contrast, private sector job creation remained steady at 58,000 jobs per month in July and August. Although this growth rate is below the roughly 100,000 jobs added per month in Q1 2025, it likely reflects the drop in population growth related to the forced and self-deportation of illegal immigrants, the release noted.

From May 2024 to July 2025, monthly unemployment rates fluctuated within a narrow range of 4 per cent and 4.2 per cent. In August, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 per cent of the labour force, and the average for July and August was 4.29 per cent.

Unemployment rates in Q3 2025 remained just below the Congressional Budget Office’s 4.4-per cent estimate of the non-cyclical unemployment rate—or the rate of unemployment that is consistent with stable inflation and excludes fluctuations in aggregate demand.

Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges remained low. Private-sector layoffs and discharges accounted for just 1.3 per cent of employment in July and August, in line with the low rates that persisted during President Donald Trump’s first term before the pandemic.

Inflation remained above the target of 2 per cent in Q3 2025. As of September 2025, CPI inflation was 3 per cent on a twelve-month basis. The elevated annual growth partly reflects the strong price pressures from September 2024 to January 2025, in which headline CPI rose by 4.1 per cent at an annualised rate. From January 2025 to September 2025, CPI growth was more moderate at 2.5 per cent at an annual rate.

Monthly core CPI inflation averaged 0.3 per cent in Q3 2025. Over the twelve months through September 2025, the core inflation rate was 3 per cent. So far this year, annual core inflation has ranged between 2.8 per cent and 3.1 per cent, save for the 3.3-per cent rating realised in January from when President Trump assumed office.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



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South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand

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South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand



In the Mumbai market, cotton yarn prices remained unchanged as the loom sector slowed production. Although spinning mills are looking to raise their selling rates, they have not found sufficient demand. A Mumbai-based trader told Fibre*Fashion, “Power and auto looms are facing limited fabric buying from the garment industry. Export prospects are still unclear. Domestic demand is also insufficient to support any price rise. Mills are comfortable with falling cotton prices, while buyers remain silent on yarn purchases.”

In Mumbai, ** carded yarn of warp and weft varieties were traded at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.**) and ****;*,****,*** per * kg (~$**.****.**) (excluding GST), respectively. Other prices include ** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, ** carded weft at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.** per *.* kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg and **/** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, according to trade sources.



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Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India

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Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India



The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding, which could allow near zero-tariff access for Bangladeshi garments to the American market subject to specific riders, has triggered debate within India’s textile and apparel industry. The real gains from zero tariffs may be limited due to high freight costs, longer lead times, and insufficient capacity in Bangladesh’s spinning and weaving/knitting sectors.

Bangladesh is already among the top suppliers of apparel to the US, particularly in basic knit and woven categories such as T-shirts, trousers and sweaters. A tariff advantage, even if modest, could sharpen its price competitiveness in high-volume, price-sensitive segments dominated by mass retailers.

The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding offering near zero-tariff access for garments has sparked debate in India’s textile sector.
While Bangladesh may gain a price edge in basic apparel, industry leaders believe the effective advantage could be limited to 2–3 per cent due to raw material dependence, capacity constraints and logistics costs.

However, Indian industry leaders argue that the net gain for Bangladesh may be restricted to around 2–3 per cent in effective competitiveness. They point to structural constraints, including Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on imported raw materials. A significant share of its fabric and yarn requirements is sourced from China and India, limiting flexibility in rules-of-origin compliance if strict value-addition conditions are attached to the deal.

Capacity limitations in spinning, weaving and man-made fibre processing are also seen as bottlenecks. While Bangladesh has built scale in garmenting, its upstream integration remains narrower than India’s diversified fibre-to-fashion base. Indian exporters emphasise that integrated supply chains offer advantages in speed, customisation and smaller batch production.

Logistics and lead times may further temper expectations. Distance from major US ports, coupled with infrastructure pressures and global shipping volatility, could offset part of the tariff benefit. In contrast, Indian suppliers have been investing in port connectivity, digital compliance systems and flexible production models to strengthen reliability.

Industry representatives also highlight that US buyers are increasingly factoring in sustainability, traceability and geopolitical risk. India’s growing adoption of renewable energy in textile clusters, compliance with global standards and broader product depth may help it retain strategic sourcing partnerships.

While some diversion of orders in basic categories cannot be ruled out, exporters believe the overall impact will be incremental rather than disruptive. The consensus view is that tariff preference alone is unlikely to override considerations of scale, compliance, diversification and long-term supply-chain resilience.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)



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US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole

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US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole



United States (US) Senator Bill Cassidy, along with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, have introduced the ‘Last Sale Valuation Act,’ legislation aimed at closing a long-standing customs loophole that allows importers to underpay duties by declaring goods at artificially low values. The act would require tariffs to be assessed on the final sale value of imported goods rather than earlier transactions in complex overseas supply chains.

“This bill protects Louisiana workers and American businesses, ensuring loopholes don’t hold them back,” Dr Cassidy said in a press release.

US Senators Bill Cassidy and Sheldon Whitehouse have introduced the Last Sale Valuation Act to close the ‘first sale’ customs loophole that lets importers underpay duties.
The bipartisan bill would base tariffs on final sale values, strengthen US Customs enforcement and curb duty evasion.
Supporters say it will protect American manufacturers, workers and federal revenue.

If passed, the bipartisan measure would grant clearer enforcement authority to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), streamline valuation reviews and reduce disputes over documentation, while curbing mis-invoicing and related-party pricing schemes linked to tariff evasion and illicit financial activity.

The legislation has drawn support from the American Compass, the Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Southern Shrimp Alliance.

“Cassidy’s ‘Last Sale Valuation Act’ strengthens customs valuation by assessing duties on the final transaction value of goods entering the US,” said Mark A DiPlacido, senior political economist at the American Compass, adding that closing the judicially created ‘first sale’ loophole would reduce duty evasion, simplify enforcement and increase customs revenue.

Jon Toomey, president of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, said the bill is “an important first step in restoring customs integrity,” ensuring duties are paid on the true commercial value of imported goods and helping level the playing field for American manufacturers and workers.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (CG)



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