Fashion
Downside risk to near-term outlook from US govt shutdown: Treasury
Artificial intelligence (AI) could have disruptive impacts on the economy and labour markets as businesses and individuals integrate it or fail to, according to the Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.
US economic growth solidified in Q3 2025, with steady business investment and consumer demand, but each week of the unnecessary government shutdown is adding drag to Q4 GDP and introduces downside risk to the near-term outlook, the Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee said.
AI could disrupt the economy and labour markets as businesses and individuals integrate it or fail to.
Yields on US Treasury notes and bills eased over Q3 2025 and labour markets stabilised in July and August, with modest employment growth consistent with that of Q2, the statement said.
Forced deportation and voluntary self-deportation of illegal immigrants has reduced labour supply, but labour demand has similarly decreased. This has kept aggregate labour markets roughly in balance.
With modest hiring but low layoff rates, firms appear to be planning for output growth via productivity improvements, a release from the treasury department said.
In just July and August, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were up by 2.8 per cent at an annual rate, picking up modestly from the Q2 figure.
Total payroll job growth averaged 51,000 per month during July and August, after averaging 55,000 per month during Q2 2025. The slower growth from the second to third quarters, however, partly reflected the shedding of federal government jobs—with a monthly average decrease of 12,500 in federal employment.
By contrast, private sector job creation remained steady at 58,000 jobs per month in July and August. Although this growth rate is below the roughly 100,000 jobs added per month in Q1 2025, it likely reflects the drop in population growth related to the forced and self-deportation of illegal immigrants, the release noted.
From May 2024 to July 2025, monthly unemployment rates fluctuated within a narrow range of 4 per cent and 4.2 per cent. In August, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 per cent of the labour force, and the average for July and August was 4.29 per cent.
Unemployment rates in Q3 2025 remained just below the Congressional Budget Office’s 4.4-per cent estimate of the non-cyclical unemployment rate—or the rate of unemployment that is consistent with stable inflation and excludes fluctuations in aggregate demand.
Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges remained low. Private-sector layoffs and discharges accounted for just 1.3 per cent of employment in July and August, in line with the low rates that persisted during President Donald Trump’s first term before the pandemic.
Inflation remained above the target of 2 per cent in Q3 2025. As of September 2025, CPI inflation was 3 per cent on a twelve-month basis. The elevated annual growth partly reflects the strong price pressures from September 2024 to January 2025, in which headline CPI rose by 4.1 per cent at an annualised rate. From January 2025 to September 2025, CPI growth was more moderate at 2.5 per cent at an annual rate.
Monthly core CPI inflation averaged 0.3 per cent in Q3 2025. Over the twelve months through September 2025, the core inflation rate was 3 per cent. So far this year, annual core inflation has ranged between 2.8 per cent and 3.1 per cent, save for the 3.3-per cent rating realised in January from when President Trump assumed office.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Current account excluding gold and energy indicated net deficit of $3.9 billion, while goods saw a deficit of $9.5 billion.
Turkiye recorded a current account deficit (CAD) of $9.6 billion in March, the country’s central bank said.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said the CAD is expected to widen this year, due to high energy and non-energy commodity prices.
Simsek said the deterioration is likely to remain temporary and manageable, thanks to stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and policy gains.
According to annualised data, current account deficit recorded as $39.7 billion (2.6 per cent of gross domestic product) in March, while the goods deficit recorded as $77.8 billion.
Simsek said the deterioration is likely to remain temporary and manageable thanks to stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and policy gains, domestic media outlets reported.
Turkiye is heavily reliant on imported energy, whose prices spiralled due to the Middle East conflict.
Simsek said elevated global commodity prices would put pressure on the external balance, but emphasised that the government’s economic programme had improved resilience against such shocks.
He said foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows totalled $1 billion in March, bringing annualised foreign direct investment to $12.6 billion.
The new investment incentive package under discussion in parliament now is expected to strengthen the country’s financing structure and support long-term capital inflows, he added.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
During the first quarter of ****, the UK’s imports of textile fabrics eased down *.** to £*,*** million (~$*,*** million), against £*,*** million in January-March **** but slightly higher from £*,*** million in the fourth quarter of ****. Its imports of fibre were noted at £** million (~$***.** million) steady as £** million in Q*, **** but slightly lower than £** million in Q*, ****.
During the third month of this year, the country’s clothing imports declined *.** per cent to £*.*** billion (~$*.*** billion), compared with £*.*** billion in March ****. But the inbound shipment was slightly higher month on month compared with £*.*** billion in February ****.
Higher rents, utility bills and fuel prices are eating away at already thin profit margins, it found.
High inflation is cutting deep into Bangladesh consumer spending, with weak demand turning one of the biggest concerns for businesses, DCCI said.
Higher rents, utility bills and fuel prices are eating away at already thin profit margins.
DCCI’s economic position index revealed that consumers have sharply reduced spending as the cost of living continues to rise.
SMEs are feeling the pressure the most.
The chamber’s economic position index (EPI) revealed that consumers have sharply reduced spending as the cost of living continues to rise, putting pressure on retailers, transport operators and other service providers.
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are feeling the pressure the most as they struggle to manage higher operating costs without losing customers.
Businesses also cited difficulties in obtaining bank loans, while delays in licensing and other regulatory procedures are adding to costs.
The DCCI report identified a shortage of skilled workers, particularly in technical and customer service roles, as another challenge for the sector.
The country’s inflation rose to 9.04 per cent in April from 8.71 per cent in March, according to official statistics.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
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