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Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk prepare to face off in the next obesity drug battleground
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are preparing to take their rivalry to the next frontier of weight-loss medications: pills.
Both companies expect to launch oral obesity drugs in the U.S. next year, once regulators approve them. Daily pills could introduce more people to GLP-1s, the class of medicine that’s best known for weekly shots.
But after Lilly’s pill produced less weight loss than analysts had expected in a recent late-stage trial, it raised new questions about how widely the oral drugs will be adopted and which rival company will dominate the space.
Doctors will get a closer look at how Lilly and Novo’s pills compare in the coming months when Lilly releases the results of a head-to-head trial of the two, Lilly’s Chief Scientific Officer Dan Skovronsky said in an exclusive interview with CNBC. The study’s main objective is to measure how much the pills can reduce blood sugar levels in people with Type 2 diabetes, but it will also gauge weight loss.
“We wouldn’t have undertaken this head-to-head phase three randomized control trial unless we had a lot of confidence that orforglipron would fare well in comparison to oral semaglutide,” Skovronsky said.
Nikos Pekiaridis | Nurphoto | Getty Images
He cautioned against making comparisons across trials that didn’t directly compare the drugs, where Novo’s pill looks more effective and led to fewer discontinuations. Meanwhile, Novo’s Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange in a separate interview said the data speak for themselves.
Novo’s forthcoming obesity pill is an oral version of its weekly shot Wegovy; Lilly’s pill is a new drug called orforglipron that’s different from its shot Zepbound. Lilly’s shot is the gold standard in terms of efficacy, Skovronsky said. It can help people lose more than 20% of their body weight.
Neither Novo’s pill nor Lilly’s oral drug are as effective as Zepbound. At the highest dose, orforglipron has produced about 12% weight loss, while oral semaglutide has led to about 17%. That raises the question of how many people will opt for a pill if it means less weight loss.
Even so, Wall Street expects pills to make major inroads in the coming years. Analysts see oral drugs representing about 20% of the estimated $80 billion market for GLP-1 obesity drugs in 2030, according to data from Evaluate.
The logos of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk, maker of the blockbuster diabetes and weight-loss treatments Ozempic and Wegovy is seen outside theri building as the company presents the annual report at Novo Nordisk in Bagsvaerd, Denmark, on February 5, 2025.
Mads Claus Rasmussen | Afp | Getty Images
Skovronsky thinks that pills could eventually become the primary way that obesity is treated around the world, and that oral drugs could have a larger market share than injectables. He said most patients are more concerned about other factors like supply and convenience than how much weight they can lose, and he thinks orforglipron has the edge.
The treatment is a small molecule drug like most pills people know. It can be manufactured more easily than peptides, like the shots and Novo’s pill. And it doesn’t come with the food and water restrictions that come with Novo’s oral option, which requires people wait 30 minutes after taking the drug to eat and drink.
“When I look at the pills, orforglipron has no food effect, it’s a small molecule, so the manufacturing should be easier,” said BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman. “But with new management at Novo Nordisk, I think [new Chief Executive Officer] Mike Doustdar is not going to just take this and be complacent about it. He’s going to lean in and ensure that this launch is successful.”
After seeing the results from Lilly’s obesity pill trial, Seigerman moved some of his market share estimate from orforglipron to oral semaglutide. Analysts cut their 2032 estimates for orforglipron by an average of about $4.5 billion between May and September, according to Evaluate. They now see sales of $14.56 billion that year.
Skovronsky said it’s harder to predict the market dynamics than the science.
“We did a good job predicting the science,” he said. “We said we’d make an oral that had safety, tolerability and efficacy that was similar to injectable GLP-1s. We did that. The science parts played out. Let’s see how the market plays out.”
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Brewdog: Bars close and hundreds lose jobs as beer firm sold in £33m deal
Beverage and cannabis company Tilray acquires the brewery, the brand and 11 bars after Brewdog went into administration.
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Business
Gas prices rocket as Qatar halts production after Iranian attacks
Gas prices have leapt at the fastest pace since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, after Qatar halted production of liquified natural gas after attacks by Iran.
Oil prices also soared and global financial markets reeled from the fallout of an intensifying conflict between Iran and US-Israeli forces.
European whole gas prices soared by 52% on Monday, marking the sharpest rise since prices were pushed dramatically higher by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March 2022.
The surge came after Qatar’s state-backed energy company QatarEnergy said it “ceased production” because of attacks on its facilities.
Qatari ministers had said earlier on Monday that an Iranian drone had attacked one of the company’s production facilities.
Qatar is a major producer of LNG, cooled gas which can be transported via ships, responsible for about a fifth of global supplies.
On Monday in London, the price of natural gas for delivery in April was up by about 43% to 115p per therm.
In the UK, gas prices are a key driver for the cost of domestic energy bills, indicating that a sustained spike could affect households in the coming months.
Neil Wilson, Saxo UK investor strategist, said: “Qatar is a top three LNG exporter, controlling roughly a quarter of expected supply over the next decade.
“Looks like Iran’s tactic is to pressure Gulf states so they in turn pressure the US and Israel to back off.
“I am much more concerned about European natural gas prices than oil prices, in terms of seeing a repeat of the 2022 European energy crisis.”
Global financial markets faltered after intense strikes across the Middle East and attacks on ships drove fears of energy supply disruption.
London’s FTSE 100 was weaker as trading was knocked by the growing conflict between Iran and US-Israeli forces.
The blue chip share index shed 130 points, closing 1.2% lower at 10,780.11.
Other European indexes suffered bigger drops with France’s Cac 40 down about 2.2% and Germany’s Dax tumbling 2.4% on Monday.
But it was a more tentative start to trading over on Wall Street with the S&P 500 relatively flat, and Dow Jones dipping by about 0.1% by the time European markets had closed.
Israel launched strikes on Lebanon’s capital Beirut on Monday after missiles were fired by militant group Hezbollah.
The latest strikes came after the US and Israel hit targets across Iran on Sunday as part of an intensifying military campaign which followed the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Oil supplies could be affected by the conflict after Iran reportedly warned tankers on the strait of Hormuz that no ships would be allowed to pass through.
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre officials said that two vessels have been struck near to the key trade artery.
The Strait of Hormuz is used by tankers carrying about one fifth of the world’s oil supplies and seaborne gas.
On Monday, the price of Brent crude oil soared by as much as 13%, rising above 82 dollars a barrel, before paring back.
It was 8.4% higher at 79.2 dollars a barrel shortly before 2pm, before easing slightly to be 5.5% higher at 76.9 dollars a barrel by early evening.
Nevertheless, City analysts have said the markets have been relatively contained so far in reaction to the conflict.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: “While we have seen a significant surge in oil prices since markets opened last night, the gains appear contained for now as we wait to see if shipping through Hormuz can continue at lower levels or will be blocked entirely.
“Oil and gas infrastructure in the region has not yet been extensively targeted, keeping oil well south of the 100 dollar barrel range that many expected as a result of the weekend.”
Meanwhile, the pound dipped in value against the US dollar to its weakest level since December.
The fall is partly linked to the strength of the dollar, with investors pouring funds into the US “safe haven” currency.
The pound was down about 0.8% at 1.338 versus the dollar during the day, before parring back some losses to be down around 0.3% at 1.34 against the dollar by early evening.
London stocks were broadly weaker, with travel stocks among those dropping particularly sharply.
Cruise giant Carnival slid by 8%, while airline firm IAG, the parent firm of British Airways, dipped by 7.6%.
Rival Wizz Air, which typically runs flights to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, was also down 7.3% in early trading on Monday, while travel-focused retail groups SSP and WH Smith were also firmly lower.
However, defence stocks were among the gainers, with BAE Systems lifting by 7.4% to 2,268p.
Elsewhere, oil and energy stocks were also stronger – Shell and BP rose by 4.5% and 3.5% respectively as prices lift.
International stock markets also opened weaker after the start of trading, with the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo falling by 1.5% after Asian markets opened.
Business
Oil prices spike! Will petrol, diesel rates be hiked in India as crude nears $80 mark on Middle East tensions? – The Times of India
Internationally, oil prices have risen by around 9-10% following Israel-US strikes on Iran, and amid the rising tensions in the Middle East are likely to remain elevated. Does that mean that petrol and diesel prices in India will go up?Brent crude, the international benchmark, moved close to $80 per barrel, while US crude futures advanced 8.6 per cent to $72.79, compared with roughly $67 on Friday.
India, which meets about 88% of its crude oil demand through imports before refining it into fuels such as petrol and diesel, faces a higher import burden when global prices rise, along with possible inflationary effects.
Middle East tensions : Will petrol, diesel prices go up?
Despite the sharp increase in global oil prices, retail petrol and diesel prices in India are not expected to be revised upward in the immediate future, according to a PTI report.According to sources quoted in the report, the government is maintaining a calibrated approach that allows oil marketing companies to improve margins during periods of lower international prices while protecting consumers when global rates increase.Also Read | Middle East oil shock risks: How much do China, India, Japan depend on Middle Eastern crude, gas?Pump prices for petrol and diesel have remained unchanged since April 2022. During this period, state-run retailers including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd have absorbed losses when crude prices were elevated and benefited when prices declined.As a result, domestic fuel prices have stayed steady even when global fuel rates climbed due to higher crude costs. Likewise, when international fuel prices softened in line with lower crude, retail rates in India did not see a reduction.Sources added that the government intends to continue shielding consumers under this policy framework, unless crude prices witness an exceptionally sharp surge.With assembly elections approaching in key states such as West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Assam, the government is keen to avoid developments that could provide political ammunition to the opposition, the report said.
India assesses oil security
Amid intensifying hostilities in the Middle East, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri on Monday assessed the crude oil, LPG and petroleum products situation in a meeting with senior officials from his ministry and executives of public sector oil companies.
Importance of Hormuz for global oil flows
Much of India’s crude oil and gas supplies transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iranian authorities have threatened to close following US and Israeli strikes.“They have sufficient buffers to manage this kind of price spike,” a source with direct knowledge of the matter said, referring to oil companies. “We witnessed crude touching $119 per barrel in June 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That year their profits were modest, but in FY24 they recorded a record profit of Rs 81,000 crore.”Should interruptions continue, cargoes may need to be diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in longer transit durations and higher transportation expenses, along with increased freight and insurance costs.According to media accounts, the ongoing hostilities have in effect shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the vital artery for worldwide energy transportation. Nearly one-third of global seaborne crude oil exports and around 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas cargoes pass through this narrow channel.Also Read | 1970s-style oil shock loading? Crude may hit $100 if Strait of Hormuz shuts amid Middle East tensions – what it means
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