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Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 growth is only getting started as Novo Nordisk braces for a decline in 2026

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Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 growth is only getting started as Novo Nordisk braces for a decline in 2026


The Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk logos.

Mike Blake | Tom Little | Reuters

It’s a tale of two drugmakers in the red-hot obesity drug market. 

Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are grappling with lower prices in the U.S., but their 2026 outlooks are diverging sharply: While Novo is bracing for a sales decline, Lilly sees revenue jumping again thanks to its blockbuster medicines. 

The split in guidance – despite similar headwinds – underscores the strength of Lilly’s position in the obesity and diabetes drug market, underpinned by its more effective injections and early foray into direct-to-consumer sales, among other factors. While Novo Nordisk effectively made the drugs mainstream, Lilly has since taken a clear edge in market share — and the forecasts show it will likely only extend its advantage this year.

“The difference in sales momentum and market share trend was visible throughout 2025, but the dichotomy between the two companies’ prospects was accentuated within this 24-hour period in which Novo guided below consensus and Lilly guided above consensus expectations,”  Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger told CNBC on Wednesday. 

“That really solidified an investor’s mind that Lilly is going to be the dominant player in obesity going forward,” he added. 

This year, all eyes will be on how Lilly’s upcoming obesity pill, orforglipron, fares against Novo’s own oral Wegovy drug, which has had an explosive U.S. launch this year.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday, Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said 20 million to 25 million patients are currently taking both companies’ medicines. But he said the total addressable market of patients in the obesity space is “gigantic.” 

Diverging outlooks

On Wednesday, Lilly forecasted 2026 sales of $80 billion to $83 billion, surpassing the $77.62 billion that analysts were expecting, according to LSEG. 

The midpoint of that outlook translates to sales growing by 25% this year.

In contrast, Novo warned on Tuesday that it sees sales and profit declining by 5% to 13% this year, as prices fall in the U.S. and exclusivity expires for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs in China, Brazil and Canada. 

(L/R) Maziar Mike Doustdar, CEO of Novo Nordisk, and David Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, listen as US President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office during an event about weight-loss drugs at the White House in Washington, DC on November 6, 2025.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

Lilly similarly pointed to a “global pricing decline in the low- to mid- teens [percentages] this year.” That comes after the landmark “most favored nation” deals both companies struck with President Donald Trump in November to slash obesity and diabetes drug costs, along with their recent efforts to further reduce direct-to-consumer prices for their treatments. 

The agreements with Trump are expected to take a bite out of both companies’ sales, but eventually increase volumes of prescriptions for their drugs. Still, Lilly is bullish about other factors that will help offset that pricing pressure. 

That includes continued worldwide demand for its obesity drug Zepbound and diabetes counterpart Mounjaro and the expected launch of its GLP-1 pill for obesity in the second quarter, pending U.S. approval. Lilly also pointed to government Medicare coverage of obesity treatments starting for the first time by at least July, one of the winning features of the drug pricing deals with Trump. 

Lilly’s Ricks told CNBC that coverage will open up access to 40 million new Medicare beneficiaries, “and that could be quite expansive to volume.”

Overall, Risinger called Lilly’s guidance “very encouraging” and said the “price per volume trade-off is playing out well” for the company.

He said tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound and Mounjaro, is “superior” in its effectiveness and tolerability compared to semaglutide, the ingredient in Novo’s obesity and diabetes drugs. That was proven in a head-to-head clinical trial conducted by Lilly in 2024, and prescription trends show that the company’s drugs are preferred among prescribers.  

“I think that’s what is driving Lilly’s market share gain” relative to Novo, Risinger said. 

Another factor that sets Lilly and Novo apart is patent exclusivity. While Novo said expiring patents in some international markets pose a challenge, Lilly’s Ricks said tirzepatide should be protected into “the back half of the 2030s” in major markets. 

Risinger noted that Lilly is still working to drive global uptake for tirzepatide, which won U.S. approval for obesity in 2023. 

All eyes on pills

A pharmacist displays a box of Wegovy pills at a pharmacy in Provo, Utah, Jan. 15, 2026.

George Frey | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Novo Nordisk is first to market with a GLP-1 pill for obesity, and it already hit 50,000 weekly prescriptions in just under three weeks of its launch. But investors are watching to see how that shifts once Lilly’s pill rolls out to patients later this year. 

In an interview with CNBC’s “Mad Money,” Novo CEO Mike Doustdar said he’s confident about the company’s ability to compete with Lilly. 

“Clearly we have the most efficacious weight reduction pill that there is and I’m very optimistic and bullish on when they come with their pill and we have to battle this out,” Doustdar said. 

He’s referring to clinical trial data suggesting that Novo’s Wegovy pill promotes comparable weight loss to its injectable counterpart, which is around 15%. Meanwhile, Lilly’s pill appears to be slightly less effective than that, based on separate study data. 

Risinger said the launch of Novo’s pill has benefited from the fact that the company is leveraging the Wegovy brand name, which is recognizable by many patients, and immediately launched direct-to-consumer advertising for the product in early January. 

But he said Lilly could capitalize on its pill’s convenience advantage. 

Orforglipron is a small-molecule drug that is absorbed more easily in the body and doesn’t require dietary restrictions like Novo Nordisk’s pill, which is a peptide medication. Patients are supposed to drink no more than four ounces of water with the Wegovy pill and must wait 30 minutes before eating or drinking anything else each day. 

Novo contends that those requirements won’t hinder uptake, but Risinger said it could help Lilly’s pill eventually generate greater sales globally. 



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Families offered support with food costs over Easter holidays

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Families offered support with food costs over Easter holidays



Low-income families are being offered help with the cost of food during the Easter holidays.



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Delay in FSSAI finalising front of pack labelling rules unusual by its own norm – The Times of India

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Delay in FSSAI finalising front of pack labelling rules unusual by its own norm – The Times of India


While the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) has claimed in the Supreme Court that the framing of front-of-pack labelling (FOPL) regulations would take longer and sought more time, a look at several regulations framed by the authority in the last ten years shows that the average time taken to frame one or make amendments to existing ones has been about two years. In the case of the FOPL, the process has been dragging on for about a decade.After framing guidelines in 2014 which included front-of-pack labelling specifying how much fat, sugar or salt a packaged food contained, when the FSSAI put it in the public domain in 2015, it had stated that the guidelines would be “converted into regulation in due course after following the process of inviting suggestions and comments, suggestions etc. from various stakeholders”. FSSAI put out the draft Food Safety and Standards (Labelling and Display) Regulations, 2018 in public domain in April 2018. However, since then there have been half a dozen stakeholder consultations and more drafts put out, but no regulation in sight yet.In response to a public interest petition in the Supreme Court seeking directions to FSSAI to make FOPL regarding high fat, sugar and salt mandatory for packaged foods, the court has been monitoring the process even as the authority has been seeking repeated extensions. In its latest affidavit in court, the FSSAI laid out a long process before the Supreme Court.It told the court that it is “contemplating” a tabular or pictorial representation to reflect high fat sugar or salt on front of pack labelling. It stated that it is a complex matter “requiring further consultation and examination” and hence stakeholder consultation is proposed before deciding on the modalities of FOPL. The latest stakeholder consultation had over 60 food industry and industry association representatives and just two public health experts representing civil society or public health interest.There remain several steps:1. After stakeholder consultations a draft amendment will be prepared2. Draft amendment will be placed before scientific panel (consist of nine eminent food scientists from different government organizations/institutions). Scientific committee comprising of chairpersons of the 21 scientific panels and six independent members, FSSAI and Health ministry “for due consideration”3. To include amendment in the regulation a draft regulation including the proposed amendment/s is placed before the scientific panel concerned4.Recommendations of the scientific panel will be placed before the scientific committee5. On endorsement of the scientific committee it will be placed before FSSAI for approval and if there are substantial changes in the notified draft regulation, another draft regulation will have to be notified6. Once approved by FSSAI, the draft or final regulation is sent to health ministry7. After ministry approval, if it is a draft regulation, it has to be notified in the gazette for public comments giving 60 days’ time and the entire process spelt out above is repeated before it is finally notified.8. In case what the health ministry approves is the final regulation, it has to be sent to the legislative department of the law ministry for vetting followed by approval of the health ministry. The approved final regulation is published in the Gazette of India for implementation.In short, the FSSAI stated in court that the regulation is far from becoming a reality any time soon. However, the longest time FSSAI has taken for framing any of the existing regulations or amendments has been over three years. The only other regulation that the FSSAI has not framed even after seven years is the Food Safety and Standards (Genetically Modified and Engineered Foods) Regulations which have been in the works since 2019.Average time to bring in various regulations/amendments to regulations

New regulations Draft notified in the gazette Put in public domain for feedback from stakeholders Date of gazette notification Gap between draft and final notification
Food Safety and Standards (Health Supplements, Nutraceuticals, Food for Special Dietary Use, Food for Special Medical Purpose, Functional Food and Novel Food) Regulations, 2016. Jul 30, 2015 Sep 11, 2015 Dec 23, 2016 17 months
Food Safety and Standards (Alcoholic Beverages) Regulations, 2018 Sep 5, 2016 Sep 9, 2016 Mar 19, 2018 18 months
Food Safety and Standards (Fortification of Foods) Regulations, 2018 Dec 23, 2016 Jan 3, 2017 Aug 2, 2018 19 months
Food Safety and Standards (Organic Foods) Regulations, 2017 Jun 19, 2017 Jun 22, 2017 Dec 29, 2017 6 months
Food Safety and Standards (Advertising and Claims) Regulations, 2018 Mar 13, 2018 Mar 23, 2018 Nov 19, 2018 8 months
Food Safety and Standards (Packaging) Regulations, 2018 Mar 19, 2018 Apr 2, 2018 Dec 24, 2018 9 months
Regulation amendments
Food Safety and Standards (Contaminants, toxins and Residues) First Amendment Regulations, 2024 Aug 20, 2020 Aug 26, 2020 Oct 17, 2024 26 months
Food Safety and Standards (Packaging) First Amendment Regulations, 2025. May 17, 2022 May 24, 2022 Mar 28, 2025 34 months
Food Safety and Standards (Food Products Standards and Food Additives) First Amendment Regulations, 2024. May 25, 2022 May 31, 2022 Oct 21, 2024 29 months
Food Safety and Standards (Food Products Standards and Food Additives) First Amendment Regulations, 2025 Oct 31, 2022 Nov 3, 2022 Jul 10, 2025 32 months
Food Safety and Standards (Prohibition and Restrictions on Sales) first Amendment Regulations, 2024 Apr 27, 2023 Apr 28, 2023 Oct 17, 2024 18 months



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Inflation holds at 3% in ‘calm before the storm’ of Iran war

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Inflation holds at 3% in ‘calm before the storm’ of Iran war



UK inflation held steady at 3% in February before the impact of an energy shock linked to war in the Middle East, official figures have revealed.

Economists have said data showing flatlining inflation highlights “the calm before the storm”, with inflation expected to accelerate again in the coming months.

The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation was unchanged from the level reported in January, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It was in line with predictions from economists.

However, the steady picture for inflation does not yet reflect the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the cost of living, with the first attacks taking place at the very end of February.

Oil and gas prices have jumped in recent weeks due to the conflict and other goods prices could also be affected by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Economists said inflation could lift as high as 4% in the third quarter of 2026 due to the projected surge in energy costs.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “After last month’s slowdown, annual inflation was unchanged in February as various price movements offset each other.

“The largest upwards driver was the price of clothing, which rose this month but fell a year ago.

“This was offset by falls in petrol costs, with prices collected before the start of the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in crude oil prices.”

The February data showed clothing and footwear prices contributed to inflation, with prices up 0.9% for the month – its highest level since March 2025 – after previously staying flat in January.

However, this upward impact on inflation was cooling inflation in other areas.

Inflation across the services sector eased slightly to 4.3% for the month, dipping to its lowest level for almost four years.

Slower alcohol and tobacco price rises were also a drag on inflation, easing to 3.6% for the month – the lowest since February 2022.

The slowdown was driven by falling inflation for the prices of beers, wines and spirits over the month.

Elsewhere, motor fuel inflation also eased back, with the average price of petrol falling by 1.6p per litre between January and February.

However, petrol and diesel prices have risen significantly since the latest data after the price of crude oil jumped due to the conflict in the Middle East.

Economists said on Wednesday that inflation is now set to accelerate over the coming months as the impact of the conflict feeds into the price of goods.

Stuart Morrison, research manager at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “For businesses across the UK, today’s inflation data represents the calm before the storm.

“UK firms are particularly exposed to the economic impact of the crisis in the Middle East as our electricity prices are tightly tethered to global gas prices.

“This will feed directly into higher costs and renewed inflationary pressure in the months to come.”

Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at Aberdeen, said: “Today’s inflation report is little more than a relic of the world before the Iran conflict.

“While the February report was broadly in line with expectations, and confirms that inflation was on a path back to 2%, the outlook for inflation has radically changed.”

Experts also indicated previous expectations that interest rates would be cut further this year have been scuppered, with many predicting the Bank of England will continue to hold them at 3.75% in an effort to diminish further price rises.

Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club, said: “With the growth outlook weak, unemployment high and rising, and policy already restrictive, we think a prolonged hold for bank rate is the most likely outcome.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “In an uncertain world we have the right economic plan, taking a responsive and responsible approach to supporting working people in the national interest.

“We’re taking £150 off energy bills and providing targeted support for those facing higher heating oil costs.

“We’re also acting to protect people from unfair price rises if they occur, bring down food prices at the till, and cut red tape to boost long-term energy security – building a stronger, more secure economy.”



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