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FY27 budgeting in uncertain times | The Express Tribune
Tax systems designed primarily for extraction eventually undermine revenue due to weak economic growth
A flat tax would eliminate much of the inefficiency from Pakistan’s tax system by both broadening the tax base and significantly lowering the highest marginal tax rates. photo: file
ISLAMABAD:
The federal budget for next fiscal year (2026-27) will be under preparation after Eid holiday. Our policymakers would face an uphill task to balance the budget amidst the 37-month $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and shockwaves of the war imposed on Iran by the US and Israel in circumstances.
Regional war has intensified geopolitical risk, commodity markets remain volatile and global financial conditions continue to tighten. For a country already navigating fiscal consolidation under an IMF programme, the margin for policy error has become extremely narrow.
In such moments, governments often resort to familiar instruments: higher tax rates, new levies and additional withholding measures designed to secure immediate revenue. Pakistan’s experience over several decades suggests that this approach rarely produces durable fiscal stability. Slower investment, weaker economic activity and a shrinking tax base often follow temporary revenue gains.
A more sustainable framework for fiscal policy is outlined in the PIDE-PRIME Tax Reforms Commission report titled “Revenue with Growth”. The report argues that Pakistan’s tax system must move away from narrow revenue extraction towards a structure that supports economic expansion. Simplification of taxes, encouragement of investment, protection of exports and modernisation of tax administration form the central pillars of this approach. In the difficult environment facing the country today, this framework offers a practical guide for budget strategy.
Escaping high-tax, low-growth trap
Pakistan’s fiscal dilemma has long been structural. Revenues remain modest relative to the size of the economy while expenditures – particularly debt servicing and defence – continue to rise. Periods of geopolitical tension naturally intensify these pressures.
Historically, the response has been to increase taxes on existing taxpayers rather than expand the underlying economic base. This pattern has created a cycle in which weak growth leads to revenue shortfalls, tax rates are increased to meet fiscal targets, higher taxes suppress investment and economic activity, and slow growth again produces fiscal stress.
The PIDE-PRIME report challenges this cycle by emphasising a basic principle of public finance: tax systems designed primarily for extraction eventually undermine the revenue they seek to maximise. Breaking this pattern requires a shift towards policies that expand the productive economic activity.
Simplifying complex tax system
Pakistan’s tax structure has gradually evolved into a complicated web of withholding taxes, presumptive regimes and special levies such as super tax and turnover taxes. Such complexity raises compliance costs, increases litigation and discourages documentation of economic activity. Simplification therefore becomes the logical starting point for reform.
A tax structure with moderate rates applied to a broader base is more likely to encourage compliance while reducing administrative disputes. Predictability is particularly important in the present environment where businesses already face uncertainty from global geopolitical developments.
Encouraging investment and industrial expansion
Economic growth ultimately depends on investment. Yet Pakistan’s tax policy often raises the cost of investment through high duties on machinery and industrial inputs.
The PIDE-PRIME report recommends removing regulatory duties and additional customs duties and allowing zero-rating of plant, machinery and key intermediate goods. Such measures would reduce the cost of capital investment and support technological upgrading within industry.
For the upcoming budget, this principle carries special significance. Periods of regional instability often lead businesses to delay expansion plans. Clear policy signals encouraging industrial investment can counter that hesitation and strengthen confidence in the economy.
Protecting export competitiveness
Exports remain central to Pakistan’s economic resilience. Yet exporters frequently face liquidity constraints arising from withholding taxes, delayed refunds and administrative bottlenecks.
Budget policy should therefore focus on removing distortions affecting export sectors and ensuring efficient refund mechanisms. Strengthening export competitiveness improves foreign exchange earnings and reduces pressure on the balance of payments – an objective that becomes even more critical during periods of global economic turbulence.
Modernising tax administration
Tax reform cannot succeed without administrative reform. The PIDE-PRIME report emphasises the importance of digitisation, automation and reduced discretionary authority in tax administration.
Modern data-driven systems can minimise direct interaction between taxpayers and officials, reduce opportunities for rent seeking and improve voluntary compliance. Administrative credibility becomes especially important in times of economic stress when taxpayers already face higher costs and uncertainty.
Fiscal discipline and credibility
Credible fiscal management must accompany a growth-oriented tax system. Citizens are more willing to comply with taxation when public expenditures demonstrate discipline and transparency.
The upcoming budget should therefore combine tax reform with efforts to rationalise non-development spending and improve efficiency in public sector operations. Fiscal credibility strengthens the relationship between the state and taxpayers and supports long-term revenue mobilisation.
Turning crisis into reform
Pakistan’s economic history shows that periods of crisis often create the political space for structural reform. The present geopolitical and economic pressures therefore offer an opportunity to rethink fiscal strategy.
Instead of repeating the familiar pattern of incremental tax increases, policymakers could use the upcoming budget to initiate transition towards a growth-oriented tax system. Simplifying taxes, encouraging investment, strengthening exports and modernising administration would gradually expand the economic base and improve long-term fiscal stability.
In uncertain times, the most effective fiscal policy is not the one that extracts the largest revenue in the short term. It is the one that strengthens the productive capacity of the economy and ensures sustainable revenue in the years ahead.
The writer is the Advocate Supreme Court, Adjunct Faculty at LUMS, member Advisory Board, visiting Senior Fellow of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics and holds LLD in tax laws
Business
Trump Might Welcome Chinese Investment, but America Is Wary
A hallmark of President Trump’s second term has been his penchant for negotiating economic deals with countries that pledge to invest trillions of dollars in the United States
“It’s now pouring in from all parts of the world,” Mr. Trump said during a speech last fall in which he boasted of nearly $20 trillion of foreign investment.
The meetings this week between Mr. Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing are expected to include talks over purchases of American farm products and planes and the possibility of expanding access for American companies into China’s vast consumer market.
There has also been speculation that Mr. Trump and his advisers are seeking a major investment from China. But such a pledge could be complicated by deep distrust in the United States toward Chinese firms, which many workers blame for the hollowing out of American manufacturing.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the challenge in an interview on CNBC on Thursday, explaining that the United States and China were working to develop an investment board that would determine what sectors were acceptable for Chinese investment. That would essentially provide China with guidance on how to invest in the United States without its transactions being blocked by the Committee on Foreign Investment, an interagency group that reviews foreign investment and is led by Mr. Bessent.
“Look, there are plenty of things that the Chinese could invest in in the U.S.,” said Mr. Bessent, who is in Beijing with Mr. Trump.
Chinese investment in the United States has declined sharply in recent years amid tougher investment screening standards nationally and at the state level.
That sentiment could ultimately clash with Mr. Trump’s transactional instincts and his desire to return home with a big-ticket win.
“If Trump were to be committed to a major investment deal with China, there’s still a challenge of implementation,” said Kyle Jaros, an expert on U.S.-China ties at the University of Notre Dame. “It would take real follow-through to overcome a lot of the political and regulatory barriers that are in place right now.”
According to a report published last month by the research firm Rhodium Group, less than $3 billion of Chinese investment in the United States was announced in 2025. That was the lowest on record, with investment peaking at around $45 billion in 2016.
The United States has imposed tight restrictions on Chinese investment out of national security concerns, making it difficult for Chinese firms to build factories near military facilities. Some states also have enacted restrictions on Chinese purchases of real estate and farmland.
China’s clean energy technology, such as electric vehicles and batteries, has also faced challenges in the United States because of political backlash. There was a surge of Chinese investment in those sectors after clean energy and tax legislation was passed under the Biden administration in 2022, but according to Rhodium, more than half of those investments have been canceled, paused or delayed.
A $2.4 billion electric vehicle battery factory that the Chinese company Gotion was building in Michigan was canceled last year after the community there protested and mounted legal challenges to stop the project.
Other types of Chinese investment have also stirred controversy. That includes the recent purchase by Nongfu Spring, a Chinese bottled water company, of a warehouse in New Hampshire that it wants to turn into a bottling facility. The purchase was reviewed last year by the state’s attorney general.
After the inquiry found that there was no wrongdoing associated with the transaction, Gov. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire issued executive orders to block China, Russia and Iran from getting access to data or purchasing land or property in the state. “Foreign adversaries like China should not be doing business in New Hampshire,” said Ms. Ayotte, a Republican.
There continues to be deep skepticism within the U.S. automobile industry about competition from China. Last month, a group of American steel associations sent a letter to top Trump administration officials urging them to keep Chinese car manufacturers out of the United States.
“As representatives of our nation’s manufacturing sector, we urge you to ensure American competitiveness by not surrendering access to the U.S. auto market to the Chinese Communist Party,” they wrote. “Additionally, allowing Chinese companies and Chinese autos into the U.S. would create consequential, unacceptable national security risks.”
Agriculture also remains a contentious issue. The chairman of the House select committee on China, Representative John Moolenaar, a Republican from Michigan, introduced new legislation this month that would ban China from acquiring U.S. farmland.
“Food security is national security, and we cannot allow foreign adversaries like China to buy up American farmland near our most sensitive military and critical infrastructure sites,” Mr. Moolenaar said.
The bipartisan bill would create a requirement for the federal government to review Chinese deals involving ports and telecommunications infrastructure. It would also apply to purchases made by investors from Russia, Iran and North Korea
Michael Pillsbury, a China scholar who has served as an outside adviser to the Trump administration, said that the president’s advisers were concerned about Chinese investments in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, aerospace and critical minerals. It has been a challenge, he said, to come up with a “white list” of sectors that could be considered safe.
“The red lines have moved back and forth as the nature of technology has changed,” Mr. Pillsbury said.
He added that while Mr. Trump is eager to announce a $1 trillion Chinese investment pledge, he is mindful not to incite political backlash.
“I think there’s been an effort by the administration to avoid getting into a fight with the China hawks,” Mr. Pillsbury added.
Ahead of Mr. Trump’s trip to China, a White House official downplayed the idea that the administration was seeking to create a new $1 trillion Chinese investment program. The White House continues to be focused on pushing China to increase its purchases of American farm goods, which it boycotted for much of last year when trade tensions flared.
Despite the anticipation of a Chinese investment pledge, the details and follow-through will be important.
While Mr. Trump has said that foreign investments have topped $20 trillion, according to the White House’s own investment tracker, U.S. and foreign investment pledges made during Mr. Trump’s second term total $10.6 trillion. Foreign leaders appear to have learned that they can win favor with Mr. Trump by promising whopping investment pledges that they might not fulfill.
“The devil is in the details,” said Philip Ludvigson, a partner in King & Spalding who specializes in national security risks and foreign investment, “about not only where the investment goes but also whether it happens at all.”
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