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Global air freight grows in Aug, yet pricing pressures deepen

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Global air freight grows in Aug, yet pricing pressures deepen



Global air cargo volumes sustained their unexpected momentum through August 2025, with demand rising 5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) for the second consecutive month, according to Xeneta. However, falling spot rates and persistent trade uncertainties raise doubts over the market’s resilience in the months ahead.

Despite steady growth in demand, accompanied by a 4 per cent YoY increase in available capacity, global average spot rates fell for the fourth straight month, slipping 3 per cent to $2.55 per kg in August. The decline is likely sharper once currency effects are considered, with the US dollar losing 4 per cent against other currencies in the past year, Xeneta said in a press release.

Shift in trade flows may also be weighing on rates. For example, China–US air cargo was priced at $4.3 per kg in August, but many e-commerce shipments were re-directed to the China–Europe corridor due to US de minimis bans, where rates stood at $3.65 per kg. Such reallocation drags down the global average. A 7 per cent drop in jet-fuel prices may also have helped ease airlines’ costs, muting pressure on rates for now.

Global air cargo demand grew 5 per cent YoY in August for a second month, but spot rates fell 3 per cent to $2.55 per kg, reflecting fragile market conditions.
Trade shifts, US de minimis bans, and a 7 per cent drop in jet fuel shaped flows, while e-commerce offered support.
Analysts caution uncertainty, weak sentiment, and tariff impacts may hinder sustainable growth despite current demand resilience.

The rate decline extended across most major trade lanes, with Southeast Asia–North America and Europe routes seeing the sharpest falls, down over 20 per cent YoY to $4.8 and $3.05 per kg, respectively, as capacity pressures eased. Northeast Asia performed slightly better, with rates to North America down 8 per cent YoY at $4.76 per kg and to Europe holding steady at $4.01 per kg, though backhaul prices slipped 13 per cent on continued trade imbalances. The Transatlantic corridor was the only exception, recording a 5 per cent YoY rise to $1.82 per kg, albeit a marked slowdown from July’s near 20 per cent surge.

“It is often said that airfreight is a bellwether for macroeconomics, but I don’t think it is at the moment,” said Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta. “Right now, volumes are certainly not as bad as people feared, but also not as good as people hoped. In our April data, on the back on the US administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announcement, we asked ‘how bad will it get?’ for air cargo demand. We still cannot answer that question.”

“More than ever, shippers are falling into three categories right now,” added van de Wouw. “There are those who will always say ‘no way’ to airfreight because their products simply cannot justify the higher cost of air versus ocean freight. Then there are traditional air cargo customers who always ship goods by air because of its speed and value for their high-priced or more perishable or time-sensitive products. Between these two views sits a bigger group of shippers who will use ocean to move their goods if they can, and airfreight if they must. It is this segment of the market which is driving the upturn in airfreight demand we are seeing.”

E-commerce has been a stabilising force since 2023, driving double-digit monthly growth in 2024. But the removal of the US de minimis threshold for duty-free imports is reshaping flows. While aimed at large Chinese platforms, the changes affect B2B shipments significantly, adding administrative burdens and costs.

“Many SMEs are reacting to these changes, and while B2C may remain resilient, B2B flows will face greater challenges,” van de Wouw observed.

Looking ahead, Xeneta warns that falling purchasing managers’ indices in major exporting economies, weakening US consumer sentiment, and the end of de minimis exemptions will continue to add volatility.

“Uncertainty seems set to remain with so many questions unanswered. The predictions are concerning but, because of this uncertainty, the hurt for airfreight has been softened and delayed. For how much longer anyone’s guess,” van de Wouw concluded.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)



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China rolls out tariff cuts on Congo imports from April 1

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China rolls out tariff cuts on Congo imports from April 1



China will begin applying agreed tariff rates to certain imports originating from the Republic of the Congo from April 1, according to the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council.

The measure implements tariff reduction commitments made under the ‘Early Harvest Arrangement of the Agreement on Economic Partnership for Shared Development’ between the two countries.

China will implement preferential tariff rates on selected imports from the Republic of the Congo starting April 1 under the Early Harvest Arrangement of their economic partnership agreement.
The move announced by the Customs Tariff Commission, is aimed at fulfilling tariff reduction commitments, enhancing bilateral trade cooperation and advancing long-term economic ties between the two countries.

The commission said the move is in line with China’s tariff law and reflects the country’s continued efforts to expand opening-up and strengthen trade ties with African partners.

Officials stated that the preferential tariff treatment will help deepen bilateral economic and trade cooperation and support the development of a higher-level community with a shared future between China and the Republic of the Congo.

The Early Harvest Arrangement, signed in November 2025, marked the first such agreement of its kind between China and an African country, paving the way for broader market access and phased tariff reductions.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (JP)



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More risk from Iran war to Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka: S&P Global

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More risk from Iran war to Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka: S&P Global



The Middle East war poses a greater risk to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and to a lesser extent Laos, due to their high dependence on imported energy and limited reserve supplies, according to S&P Global Ratings.

These countries are particularly vulnerable to rising oil prices and potential supply disruptions, it noted in a recent article.

The Iran war poses a greater risk to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and to a lesser extent Laos, due to their high dependence on imported energy and limited reserves, S&P Global Ratings said.
These countries are particularly vulnerable to rising oil prices and potential supply disruptions.
All four governments are likely to see significant credit metric deteriorations, if the conflict is prolonged.

In our base case scenario, the war is unlikely to have a material impact on our sovereign ratings on these countries, but a more prolonged price and supply shock in global energy markets could cause more pronounced credit damage.

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh are showing signs of economic recovery. The three countries have made progress, but sustained high energy prices and potential disruptions to trade and remittances could derail their fragile economies.

S&P Global Ratings believes the higher-income Asia-Pacific (APAC) economies are better placed to weather temporary disruptions to oil and gas supply from the Middle East.

Even where they are highly dependent on imported energy, they generally have more significant oil reserves to meet the shortfall in imports. They also have financial resources to acquire available supply in the spot oil and gas markets to secure needed energy, the rating agency noted.

Lower-income economies in the region do not enjoy such flexibility. The sovereign ratings on some may face pressure if the supply disruption persists longer than our assumptions. Bangladesh, Laos, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are among this group. These economies have one thing in common: a high dependence on imported energy products.

The Middle East war is likely to have a more severe impact on these economies, due to their fuel import bills, and generally weaker fiscal and external reserves to withstand supply shortages and high oil prices.

Among the four sovereigns, Laos is likely to fare better due to the dominance of hydropower in its energy mix.

Bangladesh, with government revenues at only around 9 per cent of gross domestic product, has fewer options to cap electricity and fuel prices through fiscal means.

All four governments are likely to see significant credit metric deteriorations, through inflation and currency channels, if the Middle East conflict is prolonged. However, the impact on the agency’s ratings on these sovereigns may be limited, as the generally low rating levels have already captured a significant share of the risks.

S&P Global Ratings’ base case for the Middle East war assumes that elevated hostilities will persist into early April, with the Strait of Hormuz facing material disruptions.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



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EU Parliament members set conditions for lowering tariffs on US items

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EU Parliament members set conditions for lowering tariffs on US items



European Parliament members (MEPs) yesterday adopted their position on two proposals implementing the tariff aspects of the European Union (EU)-United States (US) Turnberry trade deal.

On July 27, 2025, in Turnberry, Scotland, US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a deal on tariff and trade issues, outlined in a joint statement published on August 25.

EU Parliament members have adopted their position on two proposals implementing the tariff aspects of the EU-US Turnberry trade deal.
The texts, if agreed with EU members, will eliminate most tariffs on US industrial goods and offer preferential market access for many US seafood and agricultural goods.
The members strengthened the proposed suspension clause, and introduced ‘sunrise’ and ‘sunset’ clauses.

The texts, if agreed with EU member states, will eliminate most tariffs on US industrial goods and provide preferential market access for a wide range of US seafood and agricultural goods, in line with the commitments made in summer 2025 between the EU and the United States.

The MEPs strengthened the proposed suspension clause, which would allow the tariff preferences with the US to be suspended under a number of conditions.

For instance, the Commission would be able to propose suspending all or some trade preferences if the US were to impose additional tariffs exceeding the agreed 15-per cent ceiling, or any new duties on EU goods, a release from the Parliament said.

The suspension clause could also be activated if the US undermines the objectives of the deal, discriminated against EU economic operators, threatened member states’ territorial integrity, foreign and defence policies, or engaged in economic coercion, it noted.

The MEPs have introduced a ‘sunrise clause’ that means the new tariffs would only become effective if the US respects its commitments. These conditions include the US lowering its tariffs on EU products with a steel and aluminium content below 50 per cent, to a tariff of maximum 15 per cent.

Furthermore, for EU products with a steel and aluminium content of above 50 per cent, unless the US reduces its tariffs to a maximum of 15 per cent, EU tariff preferences for US exports of steel, aluminium and their derivative products would cease to apply six months after the entry into application of the regulation.

The members also agreed on an expiry date for the main regulation on March 31, 2028. This could only be extended via a new legislative proposal, to be submitted following a thorough impact assessment of the effects of the regulation.

The European Commission would be tasked with monitoring the impact of the new rules and would be able to suspend the new tariffs temporarily, should US imports reach a level that could cause serious harm to EU industry.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)



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