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Government borrowing higher than expected after winter fuel payments U-turn

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Government borrowing higher than expected after winter fuel payments U-turn



Borrowing fell last month to its lowest November level for four years but was still higher than expected as figures for the year so far were pushed higher due to the Government’s U-turn on winter fuel payments.

Official figures showed borrowing stood at £11.7 billion last month, £1.9 billion less than in November last year and the lowest for that month since 2021 thanks to a sharp fall in debt interest payments.

But the figure was more than the £10.3 billion expected by most economists and the £8.6 billion forecast in March by the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The OBR’s monthly forecasts from the budget on November 26 are not available until mid-January, according to the ONS.

Borrowing for the eight months of the financial year so far was £132.3 billion, £10 billion higher than the same period a year ago and £16.8 billion higher than the OBR forecast in March.

This was partly due to an extra £1.8 billion of spending on winter fuel payments after the Government U-turned on its previous decision to severely restrict payments through means testing, instead opting to give the payout to all pensioners except those earning above £35,000 a year.

This helped drive an upward revision to borrowing for the seven months to October by £3.9 billion.

ONS senior statistician Tom Davies said: “Despite an increase in spending, this month’s borrowing was the lowest November for four years.

“The main reason for the drop from last year was increased receipts from taxes and National Insurance contributions.”

November’s figure was pushed lower thanks to falling debt interest payments on borrowing, down by £200 million year-on-year to £3.4 billion and the lowest November level for six years.

Public sector net debt, including the Bank of England, reached £2.93 trillion at the end of November, which is around 95.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 0.3 percentage points more than a year ago, although remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s.

Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there was “very little Christmas cheer for the Chancellor” in the latest borrowing figures.

He added: “Ms Reeves has staked much fiscal credibility on chunky tax increases in the back end of the forecast period. But we think today’s figures further illustrate the shaky foundations of that gamble.

“Revenues continue to underperform, and the smorgasbord approach of tax increases relies on distortionary tax increases with uncertain yields.

“We also have serious doubts about the Government’s ability to follow through on the raft of spending cuts announced in the Budget.”

Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray said the debt interest payments underscored the need to bring borrowing down.

He said: “£1 in every £10 we spend goes on debt interest – money that could otherwise be invested in public services.

“That is why last month the Chancellor set out a Budget that delivers on our pledge to cut debt and borrowing.”

Martin Beck at WPI Strategy said “confidence remains the missing ingredient”.

“A clear and credible pro-growth strategy from the Government – and an end to the pervasive gloom surrounding the UK economy – may matter just as much for the public finances as the fine print of future tax and spending plans,” he said.



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Trade deal done, says Trump; PM Modi thanks him for cutting tariff to 18% – The Times of India

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Trade deal done, says Trump; PM Modi thanks him for cutting tariff to 18% – The Times of India


Prime Minister Narendra Modi with US President Donald Trump (File photo)

NEW DELHI/ WASHINGTON: After months of bruising trade tensions, India and the US on Monday announced a bilateral trade deal that will see Washington slash additional tariffs on Indian imports to 18%, from the current 50%, making it more competitive for textiles, leather and seafood exporters.While PM Narendra Modi, in a post on X, which followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Truth Social, said he had a wonderful conversation with “dear friend” Trump and thanked him on behalf of 1.4 billion people for the reduced tariff of 18% on Indian goods, he did not mention the trade deal at all in his post on X that followed Trump’s “wonderful” announcement.

Modi and Trump

PM Modi and Trump

Modi also did not comment on Trump’s claim that in their conversation the PM had agreed to stop buying Russian oil and purchase much more energy from the US, and potentially Venezuela. Trump had said Modi had agreed to stop buying Russian oil and to buy much more from the US — $500 billion of energy, technology and farm products — a step that the President claimed would help end the war in Ukraine.According to the American President, Modi also agreed to bring down tariff and non-tariff barriers against the US to zero. A US embassy spokesperson confirmed that the final tariff now on India is 18%, down from the earlier 50%. This is a better deal for India than countries such Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Korea and China, which face higher tariffs. The Trump-Modi conversation coincided with the visit of EAM S Jaishankar to US for a critical minerals ministerial that will be chaired by Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week.The announcement came six days after India and the EU announced the completion of talks for a comprehensive trade agreement.Trump leadership vitalfor global peace: ModiThe deal had drawn sharp comments from some members of the Trump administration, including attacks on the EU.In his X post, PM said, “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation”. He added that Trump’s leadership was vital for global peace, stability, and prosperity. India fully supports his efforts for peace. Modi said he was looking forward to working closely with Trump to take the partnership to unprecedented heights.Apart from reciprocal tariff, Trump had announced an additional 25% tariff on India for its purchase of Russian oil.Trump said the US had agreed to the trade deal with India out of friendship and respect for Modi, and at the latter’s request. “Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. PM Modi and I are two people that GET THINGS DONE, something that cannot be said for mos,” he added.Trump in his social media post also said that it was an honour to speak with Modi whom he described as “one of my greatest friends and, a Powerful and Respected Leader of his Country”.

Ties set to get boost

Ties set to get boost

While the US had acknowledged in past few months that India had cut down its Russian purchase, it had not eliminated the additional tariff.Trump also said, “We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the US and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week!”Following the announcement last week of the successful conclusion of FTA negotiations with EU, India had suggested that India and US might be close to finalising the trade agreement they have been discussing since Feb last year.Trump’s disclosure of the trade deal was preceded by two India-related posts a few hours before, one of which featured him and Modi on a magazine cover with the caption “The Mover and the Shaker”. Another post featured New Delhi’s India Gate, which Trump called “India’s beautiful Triumphal Arch” and said, “Ours will be the greatest of them all!” — referring to a similar monument he wants to build in Washington DC.



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Union Budget 2026: Five changes in rules that could directly affect you

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Union Budget 2026: Five changes in rules that could directly affect you


New Delhi: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivered presented the Budget 2026 on February 1 in Parliament. At first glance, the announcements seemed limited in impact for the average citizen. Closer analysis, however, reveals several changes that could have consequences across investment, property, digital assets and overseas remittances.

The tax slabs were not changed, but multiple announcements received attention for their long-term effects. One of the changes affects Sovereign Gold Bonds. The government removed the capital gains tax exemption on bonds purchased from secondary markets. Investors will now receive tax benefits only if the bonds were bought directly from the Reserve Bank of India during the primary issuance and held until maturity. Bonds purchased on exchanges and held beyond April 1, 2026, will attract tax on gains.

Another major announcement targets derivatives trading. The government increased the Securities Transaction Tax on futures and options. Futures transactions will now attract a 0.05 percent STT instead of 0.02 percent, while options will see the rate rise to 0.15 percent from 0.10 percent. This change increases the cost of each transaction and directly impacts profits on trading.

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The budget also eased property purchase procedures for non-resident Indians (NRIs). Indian buyers acquiring property from NRIs no longer need a separate Tax Deduction and Collection Account Number (TAN) for Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) payments. They can use their PAN number, similar to property purchases from domestic sellers. This simplification reduces paperwork and makes transactions smoother.

Cryptocurrency regulations were tightened. From April 1, 2026, failing to provide accurate crypto transaction information will result in a daily penalty of Rs 200. Providing incorrect data without correcting it can attract fines up to Rs 50,000. This move aims to ensure proper reporting and compliance for digital assets.

Overseas education and medical remittances received relief. The Tax Collected at Source (TCS) on funds sent under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme for education and medical needs exceeding Rs 10 lakh has been reduced from 5 percent to 2 percent. This measure lowers costs for students and patients sending funds abroad.

The TCS is collected by banks or authorised dealers when sending money abroad and is adjusted against the total tax liability during income tax filing. Excess payments are refunded. The Liberalised Remittance Scheme allows Indian residents to send up to $2.5 lakh per year for different purposes, including education, medical treatment, travel, gifts or foreign investment.

These five changes in Union Budget 2026 introduce new rules for gold bonds, derivatives, property purchases from NRIs, cryptocurrencies and foreign remittances. Each announcement has the potential to affect citizens and investors in meaningful ways, highlighting the government’s evolving focus on financial regulation, investment and cross-border transactions.



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New York AG issues warning around prediction markets ahead of Super Bowl

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New York AG issues warning around prediction markets ahead of Super Bowl


New York Attorney General Letitia James speaks to the media, after she attended a hearing and pleaded not guilty to charges that she defrauded her mortgage lender, outside the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, in Norfolk, Virginia, U.S., Oct. 24, 2025.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Days before Super Bowl 60, New York Attorney General Letitia James has a message for consumers: Be careful about placing trades on prediction markets.

“New Yorkers need to know the significant risks with unregulated prediction markets,” James said in a statement Monday. “It’s crystal clear: so-called prediction markets do not have the same consumer protections as regulated platforms. I urge all New Yorkers to be cautious of these platforms to protect their money.”

Prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are expected to generate billions of dollars in trading volume around the Super Bowl.

Consumers can make trades on game events — similar to online sportsbooks like DraftKings or FanDuel — as well as on predetermined outcomes, such as which companies will advertise during the Super Bowl, an issue CNBC Sport reported on last week.

James said the platforms’ products are bets “masquerading” as event contracts.

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She warned there are concerns about the nascent prediction market industry, including “upholding prohibitions against insider betting and requiring regulatory review to ensure the financial stability and integrity of gambling operators.”

“Prediction markets may appear as modern, high-tech platforms for speculation or ‘forecasting,’ but in practice, many operate as unregulated gambling without the basic protections New York consumers both deserve and expect from properly licensed operators,” James said in the statement.

Prediction market contracts trade somewhat similarly to all-or-nothing options, with contracts priced between $0 and $1. The contracts trade up or down depending on the action.

In addition to contracts on Super Bowl commercials, both Polymarket and Kalshi are offering other trades related to the game, including on matters like “What songs will be played at the halftime show?,” “Who will attend the big game?,” and more traditional sportsbook “bets” such as “Seattle vs. New England: Most Rushing Yards,” as CNBC reported last week.

There are laws that prohibit insider trading on prediction markets, just as on traditional financial markets. But industry experts say they’re skeptical that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, recently gutted as part of widespread government cuts, has the will or the means to police those problems. 

Last week, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said he had directed agency staff to withdraw a proposed rule that would have banned prediction trades on sports and politics. He said new rules would be coming.

Disclosure: CNBC has a commercial relationship with Kalshi.



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