Business
Higher airfares and hotel prices predicted to push up UK inflation in July
Prices in the UK are set to have risen faster last month as school holidays boosted travel costs and grocery bills remain elevated, economists said.
Some experts said an “Oasis bump” could have contributed to higher accommodation prices in July.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest inflation dataset on Wednesday.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation is widely expected to have increased to 3.7% in July, from the 3.6% recorded in June.
The school summer holidays are likely to have seen airfares rise considerably, with airlines typically bumping up prices in July amid stronger demand from families.
Analysts for Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast that airfares could surge by 17.1% between June and July.
Rail costs and package holidays are also set to have jumped amid the spike in summer travel.
July’s Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation will also be announced on Wednesday.
The Government has not confirmed how it will determine the cap on regulated train fare rises in England in 2026, but this year’s 4.6% hike was one percentage point above RPI in July 2024.
Banking group Investec has forecast this year’s July RPI figure will be 4.5%, which means fares could jump by 5.5%.
Pressure group Railfuture told the PA news agency “it would be outrageous” if fares rose by that much.
Meanwhile, economists have pointed to a possible spike in hotel prices helping drive up CPI inflation in July.
Sanjay Raja, senior economist for Deutsche Bank, said this could partly be attributed to British band Oasis kicking off their reunion tour in July.
The concerts brought in hordes of fans to arenas in Cardiff, Manchester, London and Edinburgh, which could have driven greater demand for hotel rooms.
Accommodation prices could rise by as much as 9% in July, compared with June, “with the Oasis concerts having a strong impact on Manchester prices alone”, the economist said.
Mr Raja is predicting headline UK inflation will have risen to 3.8% in July.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets for Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The Oasis tour, which saw high demand for hospitality around the gig dates, has the potential to push up inflation in the sector during July.
“We are unlikely to see the Gallagher effect show up in quite the same way as Taylor Swift’s bump to prices in June 2024.
“But demand for hotel rooms, beer, bucket hats and Nineties-style gear could be one of the factors that keep inflation heading higher.”
Food prices have also been rising in recent months – partly driven by higher ingredients, labour and regulatory costs.
Annual food price inflation increased for the third month in a row in June, hitting the highest rate since February 2024.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said there were “particular worries about domestic food price inflation as well as uncertainty around how (US President Donald) Trump’s tariffs could push up prices”.
The Bank of England is forecasting that inflation will increase further this year and peak at about 4% in September, before easing throughout the next two years.
The central bank said accelerating food and energy prices have been key drivers in the uptick in inflation.
Business
How Costly A House Should You Buy & How Much EMI Is Best? The 5-20-3-40 Formula Will Guide You
For most people, the dream of buying a house goes hand in hand with the fear of overwhelming debt. Home loans may have made ownership easier, but many buyers still struggle with questions of affordability: How expensive should the house be? How much down payment is enough? How big should the loan be? To answer this, financial experts point to a simple but effective calculation: the 5-20-3-40 formula. (News18 Hindi)
This four-part rule lays out the balance between income, down payment, loan amount, and monthly installments in clear terms. It begins with the 5 percent cushion, which suggests that a buyer should always keep at least five percent of the property’s value in cash. On a Rs 50 lakh house, that comes to Rs 2.5 lakh readily available to manage initial costs or emergencies. (News18 Hindi)
The second component is the 20 percent principle, which emphasises that a buyer should ideally cover one-fifth of the home’s cost upfront, keeping the loan capped at 80 percent of the property’s price. Financial planners say this step is crucial because it reduces the interest burden and shortens the repayment period. (News18 Hindi)
The third measure, known as the 3X rule, links the value of the house to the buyer’s income. The advice is straightforward: never buy a house priced at more than three times your annual earnings. So, someone making Rs 15 lakh a year would be safe purchasing a home worth Rs 45 lakh, but stretching beyond that amount risks straining long-term finances. (News18 Hindi)
Finally comes the 40 percent ceiling, which applies to EMIs. The formula warns against committing more than 40 percent of monthly income to loan repayment. For a buyer earning Rs 1 lakh a month, the EMI should not exceed Rs 40,000. Staying within this limit ensures there is still room to manage daily expenses, savings, and unexpected costs. (News18 Hindi)
Taken together, the formula provides a realistic picture of what a person can afford. Consider an example: a professional earning Rs 15 lakh annually wishes to buy a house worth Rs 45 lakh. According to the formula, they should have Rs 2.25 lakh in cash for the initial cushion, make a down payment of Rs 9 lakh, borrow no more than Rs 36 lakh, and limit their EMI to around Rs 30,000 a month. In this case, the purchase falls comfortably within all the recommended limits, leaving the buyer financially secure while pursuing home ownership. (News18 Hindi)
Experts stress, however, that while the 5-20-3-40 formula offers a valuable framework, it should not be treated as an unbreakable law. Each household has its own financial realities, whether that includes children’s education, health care needs, or investment goals. The formula is best used as a guide, a way to set boundaries that prevent overextension, while still allowing flexibility depending on individual circumstances. (News18 Hindi)
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Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal had reaffirmed that India is open to trade talks with the United States but will never succumb to pressure amid a tariff hike.
Union Minister Piyush Goyal. (File Photo: PTI)
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal on Saturday assured that the Indian government is committed towards sustainable economic growth, after India’s GDP grew at 7.8% in the first quarter ending on June 30, 2025, as per official data.
“We are committed to working with all of you, and we would like to ensure that this GDP growth of 7.8% is sustainable,” he was quoted as saying by NDTV at an event organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry in Mumbai.
“It can happen, as in adversity, we Indians shine out. We all have the ability to put that little extra,” Goyal said. His remarks came after US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian imports as a penalty for purchasing Russian oil, impacting key trade sectors such as textiles and shrimp.
India has condemned the tariffs as “unfair and unreasonable”, citing the US and Europe’s own imports from Russia. The Finance Ministry has said that the immediate impact of recent US tariffs on Indian exports may appear limited but their secondary and tertiary effects on the economy pose challenges that must be addressed.
‘India Will Never Back Down’
On Friday, Goyal said India was open to trade talks with the US, but would never succumb to pressure or appear weak in the face of punitive tariffs. “We are always ready if anyone wants to have a free trade agreement with us,” he said at the curtain raiser event of Bharat Buildcon in Delhi.
“However, any form of discrimination affects the self-respect of India’s 140 crore Indians, and we will neither bow down nor ever appear weak. We will continue to move together and capture new markets,” he added.
Goyal also expressed confidence that the recent trade agreements with various countries will help the Indian economy to grow. He also assured that the government will soon introduce various measures to expand the domestic outreach and boost exports.
He also said there was “no need to fear”, citing India’s management of nuclear sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic. “The government is committed to make sure that all of you do not face any stress or difficulties in managing the current situation emanating from some unilateral actions,” he said.
Aveek Banerjee is a Senior Sub Editor at News18. Based in Noida with a Master’s in Global Studies, Aveek has more than three years of experience in digital media and news curation, specialising in international…Read More
Aveek Banerjee is a Senior Sub Editor at News18. Based in Noida with a Master’s in Global Studies, Aveek has more than three years of experience in digital media and news curation, specialising in international… Read More
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Govt plans a two-slab GST reform by Diwali 2025, cutting rates on cement and materials, promising 8-15% savings for homebuyers and transforming real estate with transparency.
The GST reform is expected to particularly benefit affordable housing, with ripple effects across the sector.
Authored By Sahil Agarwal
India’s real estate sector stands on the brink of a revolutionary transformation as the government proposes a simplified two-slab GST structure, replacing the current complex four-tier system. Expected to roll out by Diwali 2025, this reform promises substantial savings for homebuyers while fundamentally reshaping the real estate industry.
The proposal consolidates GST into just 5% and 18% slabs, eliminating the existing 12% and 28% brackets. Research by ClearTax indicates that 99% of items in the 12% bracket will move to 5%, while 90% of items in the 28% bracket will shift to 18%. This rationalization will significantly lower construction costs, with homebuyers emerging as the primary beneficiaries.
Cement, currently taxed at 28%, will drop to 18%, a 10 percentage point reduction. Paint and other construction materials will see similar cuts. These reductions are expected to translate into 8-15% savings for residential buyers. For a Rs 50 lakh apartment, this could mean potential savings of Rs 4-7.5 lakhs.
Industry surveys suggest the reform will alter how developers approach project planning and pricing. With simplified tax structures and lower input costs, the focus will shift from tax optimization to customer value creation. Developers are likely to adopt transparent pricing models and customer-first strategies, broadening the homebuyer base and compelling innovation in design, amenities, and financing partnerships.
The reform is poised to particularly benefit affordable housing, with ripple effects across the sector. Price-sensitive buyers in tier-II cities such as Pune, Ahmedabad, Kochi, and Indore are expected to drive unprecedented demand growth. Data from ASSOCHAM indicates the simplified GST structure will bring millions of first-time buyers into the market. Developers will need to tailor projects for young professionals and growing families, reshaping portfolios and accelerating residential expansion beyond metros.
On the supply side, the two-slab structure will revolutionize real estate operations. Predictable tax rates will enable developers to forge long-term supplier relationships and streamline procurement, reducing project timelines and enhancing quality. Simplified compliance will free up resources for PropTech adoption, digital customer experiences, and process automation, modernizing industry operations.
Banks and housing finance companies will also benefit, with clearer cost structures leading to faster loan approvals and innovative financing products. Stronger partnerships between developers and financial institutions are expected, expanding homebuyer financing options. Smaller developers will gain from reduced compliance costs, while larger players will need to compete on innovation and customer service rather than tax structuring expertise.
Ultimately, the industry will witness a clear shift toward innovation, customer focus, and operational efficiency. This reform represents one of the most significant structural changes in Indian real estate in decades — one that promises to democratize homeownership while driving transparency, efficiency, and customer-centric growth across the sector.
(The author is the chief executive officer of Nimbus Realty)
A team of writers and reporters decodes vast terms of personal finance and making money matters simpler for you. From latest initial public offerings (IPOs) in the market to best investment options, we cover al…Read More
A team of writers and reporters decodes vast terms of personal finance and making money matters simpler for you. From latest initial public offerings (IPOs) in the market to best investment options, we cover al… Read More
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