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Home prices go negative for the first time in over 2 years — and may stay that way for a while

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Home prices go negative for the first time in over 2 years — and may stay that way for a while


A home is shown for sale in The Heights in Houston, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025.

Kirk Sides | Houston Chronicle | Getty Images

Home prices have finally come down compared with last year, though just fractionally, according to daily reads from Parcl Labs, which looks at high-frequency listing data on single-family homes, condos and townhomes, both new and existing.

They may stay softer, though, as home prices are down 1.4% in just the last three months.

On a national level, home prices have not gone negative since mid-2023, a year after the Federal Reserve first brought rates up from zero, and mortgage rates moved sharply higher. From March 2022 to June 2023, the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage went from 3.9% to just over 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

But even then, prices were negative on a year-over-year basis for just a few months. It was nothing like the great financial crisis when home prices dropped 27% from their peak in 2006 to their trough in 2012, according to the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.

“More recently we have seen a period of national softness emerging after the rapid run-up during the Covid years, 2020 to 2022,” said Jason Lewris, co-founder of Parcl Labs. “The sharp increase in mortgage rates in 2022 and 2023 created an affordability shock: buyers were priced out, sales volumes dropped, and sellers had to adjust expectations. Historically, that combination of a credit or affordability shock, weaker demand, and more inventory than the market can easily absorb is what tends to produce broad national price declines.”

Inventory today is still historically low, but it has come off its near-record lows of recent years. Active listings in November were nearly 13% higher than November 2024, but new listings were just 1.7% higher, according to Realtor.com. Sellers are also pulling their homes off the market at an unusually high rate.

Prices nationally are down less than 1%, but certain markets are seeing more significant drops: Prices in Austin, Texas, are down 10% from last year; in Denver, they’re down 5%, according to Parcl Labs. Tampa, Florida, and Houston both saw prices fall 4%, and Atlanta and Phoenix saw price decreases of 3%.

There are also markets seeing gains: in Cleveland, prices gained 6%; Chicago and New York City both saw price increases of 5%; Philadelphia saw prices rise 3%; and Pittsburgh and Boston both saw 2% price gains, according to Parcl.

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While other home price indexes and surveys measure just existing home values, this one measures both new and existing. There has been no government data on housing starts, building permits or sales of newly built homes since before the government shutdown started, so it’s difficult to paint any kind of supply picture in the price forecast.

That said, builders reporting quarterly earnings have indicated that demand is still relatively weak and incentives are still necessary. Homebuilder sentiment is still well into negative territory.

“We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, in a November release. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.”

Mortgage rates have not moved much in the last three months, and had very little reaction to the latest Federal Reserve rate cut Wednesday. Home prices, therefore, are unlikely to do much either.

“Our base case from here is not a deep national downturn, but a period where prices hover around zero, with small positive or small negative year over year changes, rather than the double digit gains of the pandemic era,” said Lewris. “How far they move in either direction will depend mainly on mortgage rates and the broader health of the economy.”



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RBI Holds 879.6 Tonnes Of Gold As Prices Surge Amid Global Uncertainty

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RBI Holds 879.6 Tonnes Of Gold As Prices Surge Amid Global Uncertainty


New Delhi: The Reserve Bank of India, as on March 31 this year, held 879.58 metric tonnes of gold as compared to 822.10 metric tonnes as on March 31, 2024, reflecting an increase of 57.48 metric tonnes, the Parliament was informed on Monday.

These gold holdings contribute to strengthening confidence in the Indian rupee and the overall external stability of the economy, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary told the Lok Sabha in a reply to a question.

To questions about the surge in gold and silver prices in the domestic market, he said that domestic prices of precious metals like gold and silver are primarily determined by their prevailing international prices (in US dollar terms), the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the US dollar and applicable tariffs.

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The recent surge in prices is largely attributable to heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over global growth, which have boosted safe-haven demand, including substantial gold purchases by central banks and major institutions worldwide.

The minister said that the recent rally in gold prices may have differential effects across states or population groups, depending upon the degree of socio-cultural and economic reliance on these precious metals.

“They serve a dual role — not only as a consumption item but also as an investment avenue, as they are considered safe assets for hedging against uncertainties,” he said.

Thus, an increase in the price of gold or silver positively influences household wealth, as the notional value of existing gold or silver holdings appreciates, he added. Chaudhary further stated that the prices of precious metals are determined by the market, and the government is not involved in the price fixation.

However, the government, as a relief measure for consumers, lowered customs duty on gold imports from 15 to 6 per cent in July 2024.

The government introduced measures such as the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS), Gold exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme to reduce the demand for physical gold and to mobilise idle domestic gold, so that part of the demand is met from local stocks rather than fresh imports, thereby reducing external vulnerability and price pressures.

“The RBI and government regulation of bullion imports through nominated agencies, banks and refineries improve traceability, reduce grey‑market channels and help domestic prices more smoothly track global benchmarks rather than react to shortages or speculative spikes,” the minister said.



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Mercosur hurdle: French objections and farm protests freeze EU trade deal; Brussels faces credibility test – The Times of India

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Mercosur hurdle: French objections and farm protests freeze EU trade deal; Brussels faces credibility test – The Times of India


France’s last-minute opposition and mounting farmer protests are threatening to derail the European Union’s long-delayed free-trade agreement with South America’s Mercosur bloc, raising fresh doubts over whether the pact can be signed this year, AP reported.Angry European farmers, fearing cheaper agricultural imports and tougher competition, have taken to the streets in Brussels just as EU negotiators were hoping to close a deal that has taken nearly 25 years to negotiate. The agreement involves the 27-country EU and five Mercosur nations — Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia — and would gradually remove duties on most goods traded between the two blocs over 15 years.The accord, agreed in principle a year ago, still needs approval from all EU member states and the European Parliament. EU officials had planned for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa to sign the deal in Brazil on December 20, but growing resistance now threatens that timeline.French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on Sunday that the current deal was “unacceptable” and that the “conditions have not been met” for EU leaders to authorise its signing this week, effectively seeking a delay that could push the decision to 2026 or later. While acknowledging steps taken by the European Commission to protect farmers and tighten food safety checks, Lecornu said France remained unconvinced.Poland, Austria, the Netherlands and France fear Mercosur exporters could undercut EU farmers who operate under stricter labour, environmental and sanitary rules, including pesticide restrictions, analysts told AP. France has been pressing for “mirror clauses” that would require Mercosur producers to meet the same standards — demands that have not been fully accepted.Alicia Gracia-Herrero, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based Bruegel Institute, said the standoff exposed limits to the EU’s political unity and global influence. “If we cannot get this done even with (US President Donald) Trump’s pressure, what can you expect from the EU?” she said, warning that further delays could undermine Brussels’ credibility in talks with partners such as Indonesia and India.The deal comes at a sensitive time for the EU, which has been seeking to diversify trade ties after Trump imposed tariffs of 15% on most EU imports earlier this year, AP reported. Brussels sees the Mercosur pact as a strategic counterweight to aggressive trade tactics by both the US and China.European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said the bloc is pushing to conclude the agreement by year-end, arguing it would strengthen the EU’s geopolitical standing. “We’re talking about bringing together two of the world’s biggest trading blocs,” he said, citing cooperation on climate, economic security and reform of the global rules-based order.Agriculture remains central to the dispute. The EU exported 235.4 billion euros ($272 billion) worth of agricultural goods in 2024, and critics warn the deal could hurt local dairy and beef producers and cause environmental damage. Supporters counter that it would save businesses about $4.26 billion in duties annually and open markets for products ranging from French wine to German pharmaceuticals and Brazilian minerals.To calm opposition, the European Commission has proposed safeguards, including mechanisms allowing farmers to trigger investigations if Mercosur imports are priced at least 10% below EU products, tighter border inspections for banned pesticides, and reforms to distribute agricultural subsidies more equitably.These measures, however, have failed to ease French concerns or quell farmer anger. Agricultural unions are again planning demonstrations in Brussels as EU leaders meet later this week, underlining the political risks surrounding a deal that was once seen as a cornerstone of the bloc’s trade strategy.



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‘Can a dead economy grow at 8.2%?’: FM Sitharaman rebuts Trump remark in Lok Sabha; cites IMF ratings upgrade – The Times of India

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‘Can a dead economy grow at 8.2%?’: FM Sitharaman rebuts Trump remark in Lok Sabha;  cites IMF ratings upgrade – The Times of India


Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday cited India’s strong growth and sovereign rating upgrades to counter claims that the country was a “dead economy”, telling the Lok Sabha that such upgrades would not have been possible if the economy were weak, PTI reported.Responding to Opposition members who sought the government’s reaction to US President Donald Trump’s description of India as a “dead economy”, Sitharaman said India remains the fastest-growing major economy, recording 8.2% growth in the September quarter.“The economy in the last 10 years has transitioned from external vulnerability to external resilience,” the minister said while replying to the Supplementary Demands for Grants for 2025-26 in the House.“Every institution is raising our growth outlook for this year and the forthcoming year. There are clear expressions (from the IMF) recognising India’s growth and no dead economy gets a credit rating upgrade by DBRS, S&P and R&I,” Sitharaman said.Trump had made the “dead economy” remark in July while expressing disappointment with India’s decision to continue buying oil from Russia. Sitharaman said data and assessments by global institutions contradicted that characterisation.“The economy today has moved from fragility to fortitude,” she said.“So somebody said something somewhere, however important that somebody is, we should not depend on that but rely on data available within the country and also data coming from elsewhere. Rely on data,” she told Opposition members.“Can a dead economy grow at 8.2%? Can a dead economy get credit rating upgrades?” Sitharaman asked.The Reserve Bank of India last week raised its GDP growth projection for FY26 to 7.3% from 6.8% earlier. India grew 8.2% in the September quarter and 7.8% in the June quarter.On concerns raised over the International Monetary Fund’s assessment of India’s national accounts — including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Value Added (GVA) — Sitharaman said India’s overall grading remains unchanged at the median rating of ‘B’.She said the IMF had flagged the outdated base year for national accounts and suggested rebasing. “So to say that there has been a downgrade by IMF is misleading the House. For this year, IMF gave B for overall statistics,” she said, adding that India has remained the fastest-growing major economy for the fourth consecutive year despite the pandemic.Sitharaman also addressed concerns over public debt, saying India’s debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 61.4% after Covid but was brought down to 57.1% by 2023-24 due to policy measures taken by the central government.“By this year-end, I expect it to come down to 56.1%,” the finance minister said.



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