Business
IMF Ups Indias GDP Growth Forecast For 2025-26 Despite US Tariff Hike
New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for 2025-26 from 6.4 per cent earlier despite the punitive tariffs slapped by the US on the country’s exports. The upward revision was on “carryover from a strong first quarter, more than offsetting the increase in the US effective tariff rate on imports from India since July”, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.
In the April-June quarter of 2025-26, India grew at its fastest pace in at least a year, clocking a GDP growth rate of 7.8 per cent on the back of strong private consumption. With the government rolling out sweeping GST reforms with tax rates reduced on consumer goods and services across the board, the domestic demand is expected to gain further momentum ahead. This is expected to offset the negative impact on external demand for Indian goods due to the US tariff hike.
The IMF’s projection of a higher economic growth comes close on the heels of the World Bank raising its India growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.3 per cent. The IMF has also projected that the growth of emerging market and developing economies will moderate from 4.3 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 4 per cent in 2026.
“Beyond China, emerging market and developing economies more broadly showed strength, sometimes because of particular domestic reasons, but recent signals point to a fragile outlook there as well,” the report states. Higher US tariffs are curtailing external demand, and rising trade policy uncertainty is weighing on investment in major export-led economies, the report added.
Last week, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva lauded India as a key growth engine of the world economy amid changing global growth patterns. “Global growth is forecast at roughly 3 per cent over the medium term—down from 3.7 per cent pre-pandemic. Global growth patterns have been changing over the years, notably with China decelerating steadily while India develops into a key growth engine,” she said.
Georgieva said that countries have put in place decisive economic policies, the private sector has adapted, and the US tariff turmoil has proved less severe than initially feared. However, she said it was too early to heave a big sigh of relief, because “global resilience has not yet been fully tested. And there are worrying signs the test may come”.
New Delhi: The Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has decided to extend the date of ECR filing till 22nd October 2025 for the wage month September. The decision was taken considering the request from a number of employers in adapting to new features of the revamped ECR and consequent difficulty in filing returns by the establishments, Ministry of Labour & Employment said.
EPFO had launched revamped Electronic Challan-cum-Return (ECR) system, which is applicable starting wage month September 2025. The revamped system aims to simplify and enhance user experience of the return filing process for employers via the EPFO’s employer portal.
“In order to facilitate smooth transition to the revamped Electronic Challan-cum-Return (ECR) system, the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has also undertaken a series of awareness program with employers and industry representatives across the country,” Ministry of Labour & Employment said.
At the central level, EPFO held meetings with major industry bodies including the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI), Employer Federation of India (EFI) to apprise them of the new features and procedural reforms introduced in the revamped ECR system. The discussions focused on the advantages of the new return filing process, including enhanced data accuracy, sequential return validation, and better compliance facilitation.
In continuation of this outreach, Zonal and Regional Offices of EPFO are also conducting interactive sessions and workshops with employers and establishment representatives. These programs aim to provide on-ground handholding support to establishments and ensure timely and error-free filing of returns under the revamped system.
Lauren Turner and
Osmond Chia
ReutersThe US government has seized more than $14bn (£10.5bn) in bitcoin and charged the founder of a Cambodian business empire, Prince Group, with allegedly masterminding a massive cryptocurrency scam.
UK and Cambodian national Chen Zhi was charged on Tuesday in New York for allegedly engaging in a wire-fraud conspiracy and running a money laundering scheme.
Mr Chen’s businesses were also sanctioned by the US and the UK as part of a joint operation. The UK government says it has frozen assets owned by his network, including 19 properties in London – one of which is worth nearly £100m ($133m).
The BBC has contacted the Prince Group for comment.
US prosecutors say it is one the biggest financial takedowns in history and the largest ever seizure of bitcoin, with approximately 127,271 bitcoin being held by US government.
Mr Chen, who remains at large, is accused of being the mastermind behind a “sprawling cyber-fraud empire” operating under his multi-national company, the Prince Group, said the US Department of Justice (DOJ).
The Cambodia-based group’s website says its businesses include property development, and financial and consumer services. But the DOJ alleges that it runs one of Asia’s largest transnational criminal organisations.
Unwitting victims were contacted online and convinced to transfer cryptocurrency based on false promises that the funds would be invested and generate profits, the DOJ said.
Prosecutors alleged that the company, under Mr Chen’s direction, built and operated at least ten scam compounds throughout Cambodia, according to court documents seen by the BBC.
Mr Chen was accused of managing the compounds that were specially designed to reach as many victims as possible, said prosecutors.
His accomplices allegedly procured millions of mobile phone numbers and set up “phone farms” to conduct call centre scams, according to the court documents, dated 8 October.
Two of these facilities had 1,250 mobile phones that controlled around 76,000 social media accounts for scams, the documents said.
Prosecutors said Prince Group documents included tips on building rapport with victims, advising workers not to use profile photos of women who were “too beautiful” so that the accounts would look more genuine.
US District Court EDNYAssistant Attorney General for National Security John A Eisenberg described the Prince Group as a “criminal enterprise built on human suffering”.
It also trafficked workers, who were confined in prison-like compounds and forced to carry out scams online, targeting thousands of victims worldwide, he said.
Mr Chen and his accomplices allegedly used the criminal proceeds for luxury travel and entertainment, said the DOJ.
They also made “extravagant” purchases like watches, private jets and rare artwork, including a Picasso painting purchases from a New York City auction house, the department said.
If convicted, Mr Chen faces a maximum penalty of 40 years in jail.
In Britain, Mr Chen and his accomplices allegedly incorporated businesses in the British Virgin Islands and invested in UK property. His network’s assets include a £100m office building on central London, a £12m mansion in North London and seventeen flats in the city, said the UK foreign office on Tuesday.
Being sanctioned, as part of a joint operation with US authorities, means he is now locked out of the UK’s financial system.
The Prince Group has also been sanctioned in the US and labelled as a criminal organisation.
They were “ruining the lives of vulnerable people and buying up London homes to store their money”, UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said.
Cooper said: “Together with our US allies, we are taking decisive action to combat the growing transnational threat posed by this network – upholding human rights, protecting British nationals and keeping dirty money off our streets.”
The foreign office said Mr Chen and the Prince Group built casinos and compounds used as scam centres and laundered the proceeds.
Four businesses linked to the alleged scams – The Prince Group, Jin Bei Group, Golden Fortune Resorts World and Byex Exchange – have also been sanctioned, said the foreign office.
Two scam centres allegedly run by Jin Bei Group and Golden Fortune Resorts were named earlier this year in an Amnesty International report on the use of forced labour and torture in Cambodian scam centres.
People working in scam centres are often foreign nationals lured by the promise of a legitimate job, and then forced to carry out scams under threat of torture, the foreign office said.
These scammers operate on an “industrial scale”, including in the UK, using tricks like fake romantic relationships to lure victims into being scammed, said the foreign office.
Fraud Minister Lord Hanson said: “Fraudsters prey on the most vulnerable by stealing life savings, ruining trust, and devastating lives. We will not tolerate this.”
New Delhi: Economists on Tuesday said the GST 2.0 reforms are set to create new Diwali shopping records in the country as purchasing power has considerably gone up while inflation has come down to a historic low.
The reduction in GST has put more money in people’s hands and when purchasing power increases, inflation automatically decreases.
“The reduction in retail prices has had the greatest impact on the lower and middle classes. Those who used to be able to buy one item, say for Rs 100, are now able to buy multiple items,” Harvansh Chawla, Chairman, BRICS Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told IANS.
According to him, this is going to be a “historic Diwali”.
“Sales that will take place this Diwali will be unprecedented and traders will be immensely benefitted,” he added.
According to economist Dr Manoranjan Sharma, India’s inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to an over 8-year low of 1.54 per cent in September this year, compared to the same month of the previous year, as prices of food items and fuels turned cheaper during the month.
Moreover, India’s annual rate of inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) eased to 0.13 per cent in September from 0.52 per cent in August.
September GST collections also hit Rs 1.89 lakh crore, showing 9.1 per cent YoY growth, reflecting recent rate cuts.
“Today, the common man has more money left with him, which we call disposable income which has provided relief to millions of people,” Dr Sharma told IANS.
“This Diwali, you may see a greater increase in shopping owing to GST cuts. The festive atmosphere will be more pleasant than before as people will now be able to shop more, and traders will also benefit in the due course,” he added.
GST reforms have led to lower prices, smoother credit flow, resolution of tax inversion issues and reduced disputes, ultimately cutting costs for producers and consumers alike.
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