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India-US Trade Deal Nears Finish Line, Pakistan Scrambles To Decode What Comes Next – Here’s Why
India-US Trade Deal: The long negotiations between India and the United States over a new trade agreement have finally reached the last mile. Officials on both sides say the deal is now in its “final stage”, and there is a strong possibility that it will be signed before the end of November. The expectation inside New Delhi is that the moment this agreement takes effect, the steep US tariff, presently around 50 percent on several categories of Indian products, will come down.
The possible tariff cut has already triggered fresh calculations across South Asia. Pakistan, in particular, is watching every step with unusual intensity. Diplomats in Islamabad believe the agreement will reveal how Washington intends to shape its economic presence in the region over the next decade. If the deal moves forward smoothly, India-US trade could rise to $500 billion by 2030, something that has caught the attention of every neighbouring capital.
A report in Dawn cited Pakistani diplomatic sources saying, “Pakistan and other South Asian countries are hoping that the agreement will encourage the United States to expand trade with the rest of the region as well.”
The official added that Islamabad wants Washington to extend the same level of economic engagement to smaller South Asian economies that it offers India.
According to the official, this is one of the reasons the joint US-Pakistan statement on bilateral trade is still on hold. Pakistan’s diplomats have been in discussions with the Office of the US Trade Representative, trying to settle the last details before making anything public.
Both sides continue to work on what officials describe as “loose ends” that must be tied up before the statement is released.
Pakistan Watches Every Move
The key concern in Islamabad is how to benefit from the American tariff concessions on goods made from raw materials imported from the United States. Pakistani officials are examining whether the same relaxations, once extended to India, could be used to increase Pakistan’s own exports to the American market.
For now, Islamabad prefers to stay silent. As one source said, “Pakistan is avoiding any immediate announcement. They are waiting for the India-US agreement to take its final shape.”
Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, had travelled to the United States in October for World Bank meetings. During that visit, he said that an official statement on Pakistan-US trade would be released “within a few weeks”.
US Tariff On India Set To Drop
The United States imposed a 19 percent tariff on Pakistani goods on August 1, far lower than the 50 percent duty applied to India. This gap has given Islamabad a rare edge. As of now, Pakistani firms are exporting more easily to America than their Indian counterparts.
Washington had earlier kept India’s tariff at 26 percent, but it was doubled to 50 percent after New Delhi expanded its purchases of Russian oil. With India now reducing its imports from Moscow, American officials have reportedly become more open to easing the tariff burden once the trade agreement is signed.
The coming weeks will decide whether this long pursuit of a trade breakthrough finally ends in success. Washington and New Delhi appear ready. Islamabad is also waiting to the deal to be inked, hoping it will reveal how much space remains for Pakistan, and for South Asia, to grow in America’s next phase of economic outreach.
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‘Indians been good actors’: Why US ‘agreed to let’ India resume buying Russian oil temporarily – The Times of India
The United States has given “permission” to India to buy Russian oil already stranded at sea issuing a temporary waiver aimed at stabilising global oil supplies amid disruptions caused by the escalating conflict in West Asia.US President Donald Trump’s aide Scott Bessent referred to India as a “very good actor” for previously complying with Washington’s request to halt purchases of sanctioned Russian oil and said the temporary measure would help ease supply pressures in the global market.
The move comes a day after Washington issued a 30-day waiver permitting the sale of Russian crude currently stranded at sea to continue to India.
US cites temporary supply concerns
Speaking to Fox Business, US treasury secretary Bessent said the decision was intended to ease short-term supply constraints during the ongoing crisis.“The world is very well supplied in oil. The Treasury (Department) agreed to let our allies in India start buying Russian oil that was already on the water,” Bessent said.“The Indians had been very good actors. We had asked them to stop buying sanctioned Russian oil this fall. They did. They were going to substitute it with US oil,” he said.“But to ease the temporary gap of oil around the world, we have given them permission to accept the Russian oil. We may unsanction other Russian oil,” he added.Bessent also noted that a large volume of sanctioned crude remains stranded at sea stating that, “There are hundreds of millions of sanctioned barrels of sanctioned crude on the water,” he said, adding that “by unsanctioning them, Treasury can create supply.”“And we are looking at that. We are going to keep a cadence of announcing measures to bring relief to the market during this conflict,” he added.

‘Short term measures to help keep oil prices down’
Other officials in the Trump administration have also confirmed that Washington has “permitted” India to buy Russian crude that is already loaded on ships.Earlier, US energy secretary Chris Wright said the step was intended to quickly move existing oil supplies into the market.“We have implemented short term measures to help keep oil prices down. We are allowing our friends in India to take oil that is already on ships, refine it, and move those barrels into the market quickly. A practical way to get supply flowing and ease pressure,” Wright said in a post on X.In an interview with ABC News Live, Wright emphasised that the measure was temporary.“But as oil gets bid up a little bit because of those constraints coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, we’re taking a short-term action to say all this floating Russian oil storage that’s around Southern Asia, it’s China just backed up, China does not treat their suppliers well, so there’s a bunch of floating barrels just sitting there,” he said.“We’ve reached out to our friends in India and said, ‘Buy that oil. Bring it into your refineries’. That pulls stored oil immediately into Indian refineries and releases the pressure on other refineries around the world to buy oil that they’re no longer competing with the Indians for in that marketplace,” Wright added.“So we have a number of measures like that that are short-term and temporary. This is no change in policy towards Russia. This is a very brief change in policy just to keep oil prices down a little bit better than we could otherwise,” he further noted.
Waiver amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
The US Treasury earlier issued an order granting a 30-day licence allowing delivery and sale of Russian crude and petroleum products to India. The decision comes as shipping routes through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz face disruptions due to the ongoing conflict in the region.“President Trump’s energy agenda has resulted in oil and gas production reaching the highest levels ever recorded. To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil,” Bessent said earlier.He stressed that the step was a limited measure and would not significantly benefit Moscow.“This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, as it only authorises transactions involving oil already stranded at sea,” he said.“India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage,” he added.
India’s oil supply position
The move comes months after the Trump administration imposed 25% punitive tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian oil, arguing that such imports were helping finance Moscow’s war against Ukraine.However, the tariffs were later lifted after the two countries agreed on a framework for an interim trade agreement and India committed to reducing imports from Russia while increasing purchases of American energy.India currently imports nearly 5.5–5.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for about 90% of its domestic consumption. Officials say the country’s energy position remains comfortable despite the regional tensions.Around 15 million barrels of crude are currently on tankers in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, while vessels carrying another seven million barrels are waiting near Singapore. Additional tankers in the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal are also heading towards Indian ports and could arrive within a week.According to data from Kpler, India imported slightly over 1 million barrels per day of Russian crude in February, compared with 1.1 million bpd in January and 1.2 million bpd in December.Before the Ukraine war in 2022, Russian crude accounted for just 0.2% of India’s imports, but purchases increased sharply after Moscow began offering deep discounts.
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