While trends in high frequency indicators for January-February 2026 appear favourable, the heightened uncertainty around the duration of the Middle East conflict casts a shadow on the near-term macroeconomic outlook for India amid high import dependency for items like crude oil, natural gas and fertilisers, it noted.

India’s FY27 GDP growth is likely to slow to 6.5 per cent from the projected 7.5 per cent in FY26 owing to the impact of higher energy prices and concerns around energy availability, ICRA Ratings said.
The heightened uncertainty around the duration of the Iran war casts a shadow on the near-term macroeconomic outlook for India.
If the conflict lasts longer, the adverse effects could widen across sectors.

If the conflict lasts for an extended period, the adverse implications of the same could widen across sectors, amid an uptick in input costs and the consequent impact on profitability of the India corporate sector.

Amid the projected uptrend in the consumer price index-based inflation in FY27 with risks tilted to the upside, ICRA Ratings expects an extended pause on the policy rates by the central bank’s monetary policy committee in the fiscal despite the anticipated softening in the GDP growth. However, it expects the Reserve Bank of India to continue to intervene on the liquidity front during FY27.

The available data for January–February FY2026 indicate a positive trend across most non-agricultural indicators, with the year-on-year performance of 12 out of 18 indicators improving compared to the third quarter of FY26, while the remaining six deteriorated.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)