Business
Inflation climbs to 6.2% as core prices rise, signalling renewed pressure on economy | The Express Tribune
Non-food, non-energy inflation accelerates; border closure sends tomato prices up 127% and sugar 35%, while gas jumps
ISLAMABAD:
Inflation rose for the second consecutive month to 6.2% last month due to movement in prices across various groups, with a notable increase in non-food and non-energy goods’ rates, indicating a buildup of underlying inflationary pressure.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Monday that the key inflation benchmark increased by 6.2% on a year-on-year basis in October. The surge was in line with the government and market expectations. The government has attributed the increase to supply shocks caused by floods and the Pak-Afghan border closure. It was the second consecutive month when the price level increased in the country compared to a year ago. In urban areas, inflation increased by 6% on a year-on-year basis, while there was a surge of 6.6% in rural areas and towns. Inflation is again becoming a headline concern after prices started increasing for the past couple of months.
However, core inflation, which is calculated after excluding food and energy items to observe underlying pressures, also jumped. The core indicator suggests whether the rise is temporary or reflects longer trends.
The PBS reported that, measured by non-food and non-energy items, core inflation increased by 7.5% in urban areas compared to 7% of the previous month. Likewise, core inflation in rural areas also increased to 8.4% compared to 7.8% in the previous month. This suggests that the current trend may continue for a few months. Last month, the World Bank upwardly adjusted its inflation forecast for Pakistan to 7.2% for this fiscal year, which is slightly above the target.
The central bank had earlier said that inflation would temporarily increase this year because of floods and would start slowing during the later part of the second half of the fiscal year. The central bank had kept the interest rate unchanged at 11%, which is far higher than the headline inflation rate.
While addressing a press conference, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said that interest rates were falling in the right direction but again hoped for a further cut in the rate.
Last month, the business community complained to the prime minister about high interest rates despite there being significant scope for reduction.
The government has kept Rs8.2 trillion for interest expense in the budget, but Secretary Finance, Imdad Ullah Bosal, said that actual spending would remain below the allocation due to better debt management.
The central bank is maintaining interest rates far above prevailing inflation levels, even as it projects that the economic growth target of 4.2% will again be missed this fiscal year.
The data showed that food price inflation accelerated to 4.5% in cities and 6.8% in rural areas, due to an increase in perishable and non-perishable food items.
According to the details, among non-perishable foods, which make up nearly 30% of the inflation basket, prices rose by 6.2% on average last month compared to a year earlier. In contrast, perishable goods recorded a 1.7% increase.
Due to border closures with Afghanistan, tomato prices increased 127%, followed by a 35% increase in sugar prices. The government has failed to deliver on its promise of ensuring the provision of sugar at less than Rs165 per kilogram. Wheat rates also surged by one-fourth, followed by a 16% increase in the rates of wheat flour. However, onion rates decreased by one-third, followed by a 29% reduction in chicken prices. There was also an administrative increase of 23% in the rates of gas last month compared to a year ago. But electricity charges were 16% lower than a year ago.
The Minister for Power, Sardar Awais Leghari, said on Monday that electricity prices were Rs10.3 per unit lower than a year ago due to renegotiations of energy agreements and reducing losses and inefficiencies.
Stock prices in London closed mostly higher on Friday, in light of lower-than-expected US inflation the day before.
The US consumer price index rose by 2.7% in November from a year before, slowing from 3.0% annual inflation in September. Market consensus cited by FXStreet had expected inflation to increase to 3.1% in November.
“The knife-edge nature of yesterday’s rate decision by the Bank of England is keeping UK stocks in check and stalled the FTSE 100’s push towards the 10,000 mark,” said AJ Bell’s Danni Hewson. “Investors have responded to the reality that we could be approaching the end of the current rate-cutting cycle.”
She continued: “Across the Atlantic, the sharply lower-than-anticipated CPI reading in the US suggests the Federal Reserve might have more scope for rate cuts next year.”
The FTSE 100 index closed up 59.65 points, 0.6%, at 9,897.42. The FTSE 250 ended down 12.88 points, 0.1%, at 22,312.71, and the AIM All-Share closed up 1.03 points, 0.1%, at 757.39.
On the FTSE 100, Anglo American edged up 0.4% after reporting that it was striving to wrap up the sale of its nickel business and that it had restarted efforts to dispose of its remaining coal operation.
The London-based diversified miner previously suffered a setback, after Peabody Energy abruptly ended its bid to acquire Anglo American’s steelmaking coal assets in Australia.
Anglo American said on Friday it has reinitiated a formal process to sell the remaining steelmaking coal business.
The miner also said it is working to finalise the last regulatory approval with the European Commission required to complete the transaction, first announced in February this year.
Carnival, on the FTSE 250, jumped 17%.
The Florida-based cruise operator’s pre-tax profit jumped 45% to a “record” 2.77 billion dollars in the financial year ended November 30, from 1.92 billion dollars a year ago. Revenue climbed 6.4% to 26.62 billion dollars, also a record, from 25.02 billion dollars, with passenger ticket revenue growing 5.8% to 17.42 billion dollars.
Carnival also announced the reinstatement of dividends, declaring a quarterly payout of 15 US cents.
For the full year 2026, the company expects adjusted net income to grow by 12%.
In small caps, Seraphim Space rose 8.8%.
The space technology-focused investor’s largest holding, ICEYE, has won a 1.7 billion euro deal through a joint venture with arms firm Rheinmetall AG. The JV will provide the German armed forces with radar services.
On AIM, Revel Collective plunged 74%.
The bar and pub company said that “a number of credible parties” were in talks with the firm to potentially acquire the businesses it operates, but it warned that any deal is unlikely to return any value to shareholders.
Caledonia Mining rose 11%.
The Zimbabwe-focused gold miner has “welcomed” revised provisions announced by the Zimbabwean government on the gold mining sector.
A proposal to up a royalty rate to 10% from 5% will now only apply if the bullion price tops 5,000 dollars an ounce, and not 2,500 dollars. Also, a proposed tax change on capital expenditure treatment has been withdrawn.
Caledonia said that so long as the gold price remains below 5,000, dollars there will be no change to its financial outlook.
In European equities on Friday, the CAC 40 in Paris closed up 0.3%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt ended up 0.3%.
The pound was quoted at 1.3373 dollars at the time of the London equities close on Friday, lower compared with 1.3387 dollars on Thursday. The euro stood at 1.1715 dollars, lower against 1.1730 dollars. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at 157.46 yen compared with 155.46 yen.
Stocks in New York were higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6%, the S&P 500 index up 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.8%.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was quoted at 4.14%, widening from 4.11%. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was quoted at 4.82%, widening from 4.79%.
Brent oil was quoted at 60.16 dollars a barrel at the time of the London equities close on Friday, down from 60.23 dollars late Thursday.
Gold was quoted lower at 4,348.80 dollars an ounce, against 4,370.61 dollars on Thursday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Endeavour Mining, up 120.00p at 3,910.00p, Rolls-Royce, up 26.00p at 1,170.00p, DCC, up 103.52p at 5,019.52p, Melrose Industries, up 11.20p at 576.60p, and Spirax, up 120.00p at 6,850.00p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Barratt Redrow, down 10.16p at 368.64p, Persimmon, down 32.00p at 1,317.00p, JD Sports Fashion, down 2.05p at 84.63p, Berkeley Group, down 70.00p at 3,884.00p, and Marks & Spencer, down 5.50p at 326.60p.
On Monday’s economic calendar, the UK releases current account and gross domestic product data.
On Monday’s UK corporate calendar, no significant events are scheduled.
– Contributed by Alliance News
High home prices, stubbornly high mortgage rates and now less supply are all weighing on potential homebuyers.
Sales of previously owned homes rose just 0.5% in November from October and were 1% lower than November 2024, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales came in at an annualized rate of 4.13 million units.
This count is based on closings, so it reflects contracts likely signed in September and October, when mortgage rates initially came down slightly but then stayed in a tight range.
Supply, which had been gaining for much of this year, fell in November. There were 1.43 million homes for sale at the end of the month, down 5.9% from October but up 7.5% year over year, according to the association. At the current sales pace, that represents a 4.2-month supply. A six-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller.
“Inventory growth is beginning to stall,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said in a release. “With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Sellers who were on the market also began to delist their properties at a higher rate than usual. Sellers often take unsold homes off the market heading into winter, but that dynamic was much stronger this year.
And that is keeping pressure on home prices. The median price of a home sold in November was $409,200, an increase of 1.2% from November 2024, and the highest November reading on record. The Realtors use a median measurement, which can skew to what end of the market is selling most. The high end is currently doing much better than the low end. Sales of homes priced in the $100,000 to $250,000 range were down nearly 8% from a year ago, while homes priced at more than $1 million were up 1.4%.
“Wage growth is outpacing home price gains, which improves housing affordability. Still, future affordability could be hampered if housing supply fails to keep pace with demand,” Yun said.
Homes are staying on the market longer, at 36 days compared with 32 days last November. First-time homebuyers made up 30% of sales, unchanged from a year ago, but historically they make up about 40%. Investors stepped back into the market, making up 18% of transactions, up from 13% in November 2024.
Business
US monetary policy: Fed’s official sees no urgency for further rate cuts, flags distorted inflation data – The Times of India
A senior US Federal Reserve official has said there is no immediate need to cut interest rates further, cautioning that recent inflation data may have been distorted due to disruptions in data collection during the federal government shutdown, AFP reported.Speaking to CNBC on Friday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation readings for recent months were likely affected because government agencies were unable to collect price data in October and the first half of November amid the record-long shutdown.“Because of that, I think the data were distorted in some of the categories, and that pushed down the consumer price index reading probably by a tenth or so,” Williams said, adding that it was difficult to precisely quantify the impact.He said inflation data for December could provide a clearer picture of the extent of the distortion.Williams’ remarks followed the release of a delayed US consumer price index report earlier this week, which showed inflation easing to 2.7 per cent in November from 3 per cent in September. Several economists had warned that the figures may not fully reflect underlying price pressures.Some analysts pointed out that a higher share of price quotes may have been collected during the Black Friday discount period, potentially biasing the data downward — a concern Williams echoed.Asked how the latest data influenced his outlook on interest rates, Williams said the Fed’s policy stance was appropriate for now.“I don’t personally have a sense of urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now,” he said, adding that the rate cuts already delivered had positioned policymakers well.The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times this year as the labour market weakened, but has signalled a higher threshold for additional easing. The central bank’s next policy meeting is scheduled for late January.
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