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Interest rates expected to be held by Bank of England

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Interest rates expected to be held by Bank of England


Kevin PeacheyCost of living correspondent

Getty Images External shot of the Bank of England building taken from a low view with pillars either side in the foreground.Getty Images

Interest rates are widely expected to be held at 4% when policymakers at the Bank of England meet on Thursday.

The Bank rate, which heavily influences borrowing costs and savings rates, was cut from 4.25% to 4% by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its last meeting in August.

It took the rate down to its lowest level for more than two years, but many analysts believe there will be no further cuts during the rest of this year.

The decision will be revealed at 12:00 BST and comes after official data on Wednesday showed prices were rising at nearly twice the target level, driven by the higher cost of food.

The rate of inflation remained at 3.8% in August, well above the 2% target. The Bank rate is policymakers’ main tool for controlling inflation.

In theory, making borrowing more expensive means people have less money to spend, which slows prices rises. However, increasing borrowing costs can also harm the economy.

Closely-watched vote

The decision to cut the Bank rate in August was taken after an unprecedented second vote by the nine members of the MPC.

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said the decision to cut interest rates was “finely balanced”.

Analysts expect Thursday’s vote to be more clear cut, with no change expected.

The relatively high rate of inflation means policymakers are unlikely to risk pushing that higher by cutting the Bank rate.

However, they do expect the inflation rate to start to drop soon, which leaves the possibility open of further interest rate cuts.

A line chart showing interest rates in the UK from Jan 2021 to August 2025. At the start of January 2021, rates were at 0.1%. From late-2021, they gradually climbed to a high of 5.25% in August 2023, before being cut to 5% in August 2024, 4.75% in November, 4.5% in February 2025, 4.25% in May, and 4.0% on 7 August.

The Bank rate has a big impact on the interest homeowners face when taking out a new fixed-rate mortgage.

Lenders use the Bank rate to set their own rates. As a result, the expectation of interest rate rises can push up mortgage rates while the expectation of interest rate cuts can pull mortgage rates down.

Mortgage rates have dropped very slightly since the MPC’s last meeting in August, but further moves are uncertain, according to Rachel Springall, from the financial information service Moneyfacts.

“Many will be waiting with bated breath for the Budget. This waiting game, alongside forecasts for inflation to remain above target, makes it less likely for the Bank of England to make further rate cuts this year,” she said.

She said that savers had seen a downward trend in returns during the time when the Bank has been lowering the Bank rate.

“The average easy access [savings] rate has fallen further below 3%, so savers must act now and switch their variable rate account if it no longer pays a decent return on their hard-earned cash,” she said.

Global picture

The government would be keen to see interest rates fall further, to boost growth in the UK economy.

The Resolution Foundation think-tank, which which focuses on those on low to middle incomes, said living standards needed to improve after a “lost” 20 years of growth.

But ministers will be aware of the inflationary risk that remains in the UK, especially as prices are rising slower in countries such as the US, Germany, and France.

Thursday’s MPC decision will come after the US central bank chose to cut interest rates on Wednesday to a range of 4% to 4.25% for the first time since December.

Last Thursday, the European Central Bank chose to hold its interest its at 2%.



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US monetary policy: Fed’s official sees no urgency for further rate cuts, flags distorted inflation data – The Times of India

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US monetary policy: Fed’s official sees no urgency for further rate cuts, flags distorted inflation data – The Times of India


A senior US Federal Reserve official has said there is no immediate need to cut interest rates further, cautioning that recent inflation data may have been distorted due to disruptions in data collection during the federal government shutdown, AFP reported.Speaking to CNBC on Friday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation readings for recent months were likely affected because government agencies were unable to collect price data in October and the first half of November amid the record-long shutdown.“Because of that, I think the data were distorted in some of the categories, and that pushed down the consumer price index reading probably by a tenth or so,” Williams said, adding that it was difficult to precisely quantify the impact.He said inflation data for December could provide a clearer picture of the extent of the distortion.Williams’ remarks followed the release of a delayed US consumer price index report earlier this week, which showed inflation easing to 2.7 per cent in November from 3 per cent in September. Several economists had warned that the figures may not fully reflect underlying price pressures.Some analysts pointed out that a higher share of price quotes may have been collected during the Black Friday discount period, potentially biasing the data downward — a concern Williams echoed.Asked how the latest data influenced his outlook on interest rates, Williams said the Fed’s policy stance was appropriate for now.“I don’t personally have a sense of urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now,” he said, adding that the rate cuts already delivered had positioned policymakers well.The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times this year as the labour market weakened, but has signalled a higher threshold for additional easing. The central bank’s next policy meeting is scheduled for late January.



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Young people to be hit hardest by UK’s ageing society, report suggests

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Young people to be hit hardest by UK’s ageing society, report suggests


Young people will be hit hardest by successive governments’ failure to focus on financial and societal challenges caused by an ageing population, a House of Lords report has suggested.

They will need to plan and prepare to work longer and save more from a much earlier age, the economic affairs committee said.

The report also found that the crisis in adult social care “remains a scandal” which needs to be addressed urgently.

Committee chair Lord Wood of Anfield told the BBC it was a “struggle to find where in government” there was a focus on ageing and the “transformational effects” it was going to have on people.

“Ageing is something that we’re just watching happening”, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, adding: “We know that adaptation is the way forward”.

Policies governments have used to address the impact of declining fertility and rising life expectancy in the UK – raising the state pension age or increasing immigration for example – were not adequate solutions on their own, the report said.

Getting more people in their 50s and 60s to stay in or return to work “is key”, the committee said, and the government must prioritise incentives to do so.

It found that while age discrimination may reduce the number of over 50s working, it heard evidence that its most damaging form may be self-directed, with older workers mistaken about the extent they faced and then limiting their own decisions.

It also said an ageing population will need more care workers, leaving fewer workers for other parts of the economy.

There is “widespread ignorance” of how much it costs to retire, it said, and the government should consider an education campaign – as well as finding out if the UK’s financial services sector is equipped to provide for the population as it ages.

Lord Wood said that the government and financial services industry needs to devise “more innovative ways of getting younger people to think about lives frankly they can’t conceive of at the moment – when they’re in their eighties and early nineties.”

“There’s a long time for them to be financially planning for at a time when we know young people are doing less financial planning,” he added.

“Raising the state pension age, which saves the government money, but increases pensioner poverty as many people have already stopped working by their sixties, is a red herring.

“To successfully confront this challenge, the approach to financial management of today’s and tomorrow’s young people will need to change.”



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India-Oman CEPA rollout: Trade pact may take effect in three month; Piyush Goyal flags faster execution – The Times of India

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India-Oman CEPA rollout: Trade pact may take effect in three month; Piyush Goyal flags faster execution – The Times of India


India and Oman are aiming to operationalise their recently signed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) within the next three months, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Friday, signalling a faster rollout than several past trade pacts, PTI reported.The India–Oman free trade agreement was signed on December 18. Under the CEPA, Oman has offered zero-duty access on more than 98 per cent of its tariff lines, covering 99.38 per cent of India’s exports to the Gulf country. At present, these products attract import duties ranging from 5 per cent to as high as 100 per cent.

Business Leaders See Major Growth Potential In India-Oman Ties As PM Modi Visits Muscat

“All major labour-intensive sectors will get nil duty,” Goyal said, listing gems and jewellery, textiles, leather, footwear, sports goods, plastics, furniture, agricultural products, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, medical devices and automobiles as key beneficiaries.On the Indian side, New Delhi has offered tariff concessions on 77.79 per cent of its total tariff lines, or 12,556 product categories, which together account for 94.81 per cent of India’s imports from Oman by value.“The Oman minister and I have discussed that this agreement, we will try to operationalise within three months,” Goyal told reporters, contrasting the timeline with Oman’s earlier trade deal with the US, which was finalised in 2006 but implemented only in 2009.Highlighting investment opportunities, Goyal said sectors such as steel, energy, education and healthcare held strong potential for Indian companies in Oman, particularly resource-linked industries. He pointed to a large green steel project in the pipeline and growing interest in converting energy into green hydrogen or green ammonia for exports.“There is a lot of interest because they have large land banks,” he said, adding that opportunities also exist in marble processing, battery manufacturing, education and healthcare.Goyal said Omani businesses were keen to partner with Indian firms, citing interest from an Omani dairy company in forming a joint venture with Amul. He added that Oman’s sovereign wealth fund and companies had been invited to explore investments in India.



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