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Iran oil attacks trigger 35% gas price spike – and fears of interest rate rises

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Iran oil attacks trigger 35% gas price spike – and fears of interest rate rises



Britain is to “step up” defensive support for Gulf states after Iran attacked energy sites across the region in a “serious escalation” of the war that could push up inflation and interest rates.

The price of Brent crude climbed as high as $119 a barrel and European gas prices briefly surged by 35 per cent after Iran pounded Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub and other Middle Eastern oil and gas infrastructure with missiles.

Interest rates were held at 3.75 per cent instead of the previously expected cut, as the Bank of England warned that the war could push inflation as high as 3.5 per cent by July on the back of rising energy bills, and that rates could rise – creating misery for homeowners.

It came as:

  • US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said “ungrateful” European allies should be thanking Donald Trump for the war
  • Trump claimed he was unaware of Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field
  • Oman called the US/Israel attacks a “grave miscalculation”
  • Europe’s biggest airlines warned of higher fares

Iran’s attacks were in retaliation to an Israeli strike on the vital South Pars gas field, which drew condemnation from the Gulf states as well as Tehran. It was the first attack of the war so far on an energy production facility. Tehran fired missiles at multiple energy sites across the Gulf, including a Saudi oil refinery, Qatari gas facilities and two more oil refineries in Kuwait.

While Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron called for de-escalation, President Trump threatened to “massively blow up” the South Pars facility if Iran did not halt its retaliatory attacks, repeating his claim that US forces had “obliterated” Iran’s navy and military, adding that the war was “substantially ahead of schedule”. He denied that plans were being made to send more American troops to the region.

John Healey, the UK defence secretary, said Tehran’s tit-for-tat responses threatened to further destabilise the region and Europe’s economies. He called them a “serious escalation”, adding: “They further destabilise the region and we will step up the defensive support that we can offer to those Gulf states.”

British forces are already deployed to the Middle East, with RAF jets flying defensive sorties against Iranian drones across the Gulf and British air defence systems protecting critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. UK military planners have also joined US Central Command to help formulate proposals for opening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for the world’s oil and gas.But there were signs of growing frustration towards Washington’s war aims in the Gulf states, with Oman’s foreign minister claiming that the conflict was President Trump’s “greatest miscalculation”.

In the most scathing attack on Washington’s foreign policy yet by a Gulf state, Badr Albusaidi said “this is not America’s war” and criticised Mr Trump for supporting Israel. Writing in The Economist, he called on American allies to help extricate it from the conflict, which has continued for a third week despite failing to achieve the US and Israel’s stated aim of instigating regime change in Tehran or stopping its nuclear programme.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England has warned that it may have to put up interest rates if the war continues to drive up inflation and unemployment. Its governor, Andrew Bailey, said the impact was already being felt by consumers as petrol prices surge and that he is “ready to act as necessary to ensure inflation remains on track to meet the 2 per cent target”. That would pave the way for a rate hike as early as the end of April.

Bets on the financial markets suggest a 50/50 chance that Britain will face higher interest rates from next month – and the possibility of two more rises by the end of the year.

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said: “Markets are now pricing in an almost 50 per cent chance that April’s meeting will see rates rise to 4 per cent with the potential for two additional rate hikes by the end of the year. But no one has a crystal ball. No one knows how long the conflict will last or the amount of damage that could be inflicted on crucial energy infrastructure by the time it ends.”



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Watch: How oil and gas prices are pushing up the cost of living

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Watch: How oil and gas prices are pushing up the cost of living



From fuel to mortgages, the BBC looks at how oil and gas prices could push up the cost of living.



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US considers lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil

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US considers lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil


“To put it mildly, this is bananas,” said David Tannenbaum, director of Blackstone Compliance Services, a consultancy specialising in maritime sanctions. “Essentially we’re allowing Iran to sell oil, which could then be used to fund the war effort.”



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Interest rate cuts not on the horizon, Bank of England governor says

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Interest rate cuts not on the horizon, Bank of England governor says



Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is “the best thing to do” to prevent interest rates rising, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has said.

In an interview on Thursday evening after the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to leave the rate unchanged at 3.75%, Mr Bailey said any further cuts are “not on the horizon” as he hinted at possible hikes.

It is the first time that all members have voted the same way since September 2021.

Iran effectively closed the vital oil and gas shipping route after the US and Israel attacked the country, which has pushed up global prices.

Mr Bailey said the war in the Middle East is hitting petrol pumps now, will likely increase household energy costs in summer, and put pressure on food prices.

He told LBC’s Andrew Marr: “The duration of this problem is crucial.

“I would also say very clearly that the best way to solve this situation is not through monetary policy. It is through sorting out at the source of what’s going on.

“Frankly, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the best thing to do. Get the energy market back on its normal footing, as it were.”

Asked if he has a message for US President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and “whoever’s in charge in Tehran”, Mr Bailey said: “The best thing we can do actually for the world economy… is to sort out the problem in terms of reopening the energy supply lines, because that is in the best interest of people in the world.”

UK military planners have joined the US Central Command to help formulate proposals for opening the Strait.

The MPC now expects Consumer Prices Index inflation to be around 3% in the second quarter of 2026, up from the 2.1% that had been forecast in February, with a potential rise in inflation up to 3.5% in the third quarter.

Mr Bailey was asked if he foresees, in the final two years of his term, the ambition to reduce inflation to at or below 2% being fulfilled.

He told the programme: “If you’d asked me this question three weeks ago, I was very optimistic on this.”

The governor added: “We are fully committed to the inflation target, and our job, frankly, is to deal with the shocks as they come along.

“I have to do that. I don’t wish them. I wish they were not happening, but they are and we will have to deal with them.”

He said the impact of the war will likely feed through into a higher Ofgem energy price cap from July.

It was put to Mr Bailey that the Middle East crisis comes at a time when the UK economy has already “not been growing strongly”.

He responded: “It is a very difficult time to have this happen, but frankly, any time would be pretty difficult to have this happen.

“This is a major shock to energy prices, and we have to deal with it.”

He said the “sustainable rate of growth” in the UK needs to be raised which could come from investment from pensions and artificial intelligence.

“I’m not starry-eyed about it, but it is probably the most likely area that we’re going to raise the growth rate of the economy and that’s important”, he said of AI.

The MPC signalled that if the conflict persists and has a bigger impact on UK prices, it would need to take a “more restrictive policy stance”, which indicates higher interest rates to control inflation.

The governor added: “The longer it goes on… I’m afraid to say, but it is rather an obvious point, the effect will be larger.”

He said that is why it is “imperative” that “everything is done that can be done to alleviate this effect”, adding: “That is the critical thing.”



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