For Indian tech and medical professionals, researchers and even global achievers eyeing to work in the US, the path is becoming increasingly uncertain. New data shows that even the most elite immigration routes, once seen as relatively stable, are now facing sharply higher rejection rates, signalling a broader tightening of legal migration pathways.The US has significantly increased denial rates for high-skilled immigration categories in fiscal 2025 (year ending Sept 30, 2025), reflecting a policy-driven shift to restrict legal migration even for highly qualified professionals according to a new analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).“The latest data show that Trump administration officials intend to make it difficult for even the most highly skilled individuals from around the world to work in the US,” said Stuart Anderson, executive director of NFAP.A change of this magnitude indicates a crackdown on approvals, the analysis noted, pointing to a sharp rise in rejection rates despite no formal regulatory changes.

Green card routes for top talent see sharpest rise

The steepest increases are in employment-based green card categories used by highly accomplished professionals. The increase in denials occurred within a single year, despite no new regulations indicating a shift in adjudication standards.

Over a longer period, the trend is even sharper: NIW denial rates rose from 4.3% in FY2022 to 44.8% in FY2025, states the report.

Temporary work visas also tightening

Denial rates have also increased across key temporary work visa categories, particularly toward the end of FY2025:

H-1B remains stable—but pressure persists

The H-1B visa, widely used by Indian IT professionals, has not seen a comparable increase in denial rates, the denial rates remained stable at around 2.0%–2.1% in FY2025. This is attributed to a 2020 legal settlement, which limits changes to adjudication standards without formal rulemaking.However, policy pressure continues through other measures. President Trump has signed an executive order mandating a $100,000 fee to petition for an H‑1B worker outside the US. Further, selection in the lottery for H-1B cap visas is linked to wages and there is a proposal to increase wages across all levels.

Backlogs and delays worsen the squeeze

For the Indian diaspora, these statistics are worrying. Between Q4 FY2024 and Q4 FY2025, backlogs rose across key immigration filings. Pending I-129 petitions—used by employers to sponsor non-immigrant workers such as H-1B, L-1 and O-1 visa holders — increased by more than 54,000. The backlog for I-140 petitions, which are employer-sponsored applications for employment-based green cards, rose by 58,400.At the final stage, delays also deepened: the backlog for I-485 applications—filed by individuals to adjust status to permanent residence (green card) within the US—continued to grow.

Bottom line

The data signals a clear shift: legal immigration pathways are narrowing over FY2025, particularly in the latter half of the fiscal year, driven by stricter adjudication rather than new laws.