Business
John Deere faces a crossroads amid decreasing demand, increasing investments
Attendees view a John Deere 7R 270 row crop tractor at the Deere & Co. booth during the World Ag Expo at the International Agri-Center in Tulare, California on February 11, 2025.
Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images
John Deere is facing a crossroads as the company continues to see weaker demand in the agricultural sector even while it has committed to investing millions in U.S. manufacturing and promised a brighter road ahead.
The agricultural machinery company warned on its fiscal third-quarter earnings call last week that it is seeing much softer demand, posting significant year-over-year decreases in net income and sales.
The company is working to position itself in the larger agricultural sector, which has seen growing challenges with rising costs, climate change impacts, labor shortages and more.
Farmers have also been dealing with lower prices on crops like corn and grain and have pared back their spending as a result. In turn, Deere’s target audience has pulled back on its willingness to buy new agricultural equipment.
Deere has also been hit by tariff costs, estimating that it could take a $600 million hit for the fiscal 2025 year. The company has already seen $300 million in tariff expenses year to date.
Just after reporting its earnings, the company confirmed to CNBC that it announced 238 layoffs across its Illinois and Iowa factories, adding to thousands who have been laid off over the past year. The company cited decreased demand and lower order volumes as the main factors behind the job reductions.
“As stated on our most recent earnings call, the struggling ag economy continues to impact orders for John Deere equipment,” Deere told CNBC in a statement. “This is a challenging time for many farmers, growers and producers, and directly impacts our business in the near term.”
The manufacturer employs more than 70,000 people globally.
Still, Deere has identified enough green shoots to point to a less-troubling future.
On its most recent earnings call, company executives emphasized the growth in demand in both Europe and South America after seeing weakness in North America. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Deere’s president of its worldwide agriculture and turf division said the company remains confident in its future.
“We think there’s positive tail winds from both what we see in the trade deals, and we think there are positive tail winds from what we see in tax policy,” Cory Reed said on the call.
And in June, the company released a statement that “myth busted” any claims that Deere might need to shut down its U.S. manufacturing due to the fall in demand. Instead, the company said it was making a “bold move” to invest $20 billion into U.S. manufacturing over the next 10 years.
It follows a similar string of announcements from companies trying to shore up their “Made in the USA” bona fides since President Donald Trump took office. Before the election, Trump threatened Deere with 200% tariffs if it moved production to factories in Mexico.
“Over the next decade, we will continue to make significant investments in our core U.S. market,” CEO John May said in the statement in June. “This underscores our dedication to innovation and growth while staying cost-competitive in a global market.”
What Wall Street is saying
Despite the struggles in the broader agricultural sector, Wall Street analysts on the whole remain optimistic about Deere’s road ahead.
Oppenheimer analyst Kristen Owen wrote last week that she remains bullish on Deere and expects increased confidence into 2026, telling CNBC that she believes the company is taking an “appropriately cautiously optimistic outlook.”
Even Truist analyst Jamie Cook, who lowered his target after Deere’s earnings last week and emphasized an uncertain outlook for 2026, said he still believes this year marks a bottoming for the company’s earnings per share.
The company’s stock has seen a nearly 30% increase over the one-year period.
Deere stock
Looking at Deere’s history and the hit that the farming industry has taken over the past few years, D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky told CNBC he can’t imagine the company going much lower from here.
“The way I’d say it is 2025 could be the worst, the lowest number of tractor sales in the history of modern agriculture,” he said, with the potential for the trend to swing upward becoming imminent.
While the optimism might not be directly translating to sales today, Shlisky said the “hints” of progress are enough to make him excited about the company’s future, including the growth in Europe and South America.
“When parts of the world are doing better, the parts that aren’t doing as well are likely to follow,” Shlisky said.
While not commenting directly on the latest round of layoffs, Shlisky said he doesn’t think investors would be surprised to see the necessary cost-cutting measures at this point in the company’s trajectory.
Similarly, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note that while demand may be decreasing, they stand behind a thesis that Deere earnings have bottomed and that the company remains an “attractive opportunity longer term.”
Analyst Angel Castillo told CNBC that Deere and the agricultural sector at large are cyclical, so while the short-term remains uncertain, the long-term outlook for the company is likely to bounce back, noting that precision agriculture in particular is likely to take off.
“This is one of the unique areas where we think even if there’s more challenges next year, as we kind of expect, the earnings downside risk is much more de-risked or already captured by expectation,” Castillo said.
With its latest cost-cutting measures, Deere is saving itself by not overproducing or creating a supply chain issue, Castillo added.
“The reality today is that we’re still in an uncertain environment, and I think they’re managing in a disciplined, rational way to try to make sure not to create a worse environment,” he said.
Business
High-Skilled Immigration: US tightens screws on high-skilled immigration: Denial rates surge across key visa categories – The Times of India
For Indian tech and medical professionals, researchers and even global achievers eyeing to work in the US, the path is becoming increasingly uncertain. New data shows that even the most elite immigration routes, once seen as relatively stable, are now facing sharply higher rejection rates, signalling a broader tightening of legal migration pathways.The US has significantly increased denial rates for high-skilled immigration categories in fiscal 2025 (year ending Sept 30, 2025), reflecting a policy-driven shift to restrict legal migration even for highly qualified professionals according to a new analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).“The latest data show that Trump administration officials intend to make it difficult for even the most highly skilled individuals from around the world to work in the US,” said Stuart Anderson, executive director of NFAP.A change of this magnitude indicates a crackdown on approvals, the analysis noted, pointing to a sharp rise in rejection rates despite no formal regulatory changes.
Green card routes for top talent see sharpest rise
The steepest increases are in employment-based green card categories used by highly accomplished professionals. The increase in denials occurred within a single year, despite no new regulations indicating a shift in adjudication standards.
- EB-1 (extraordinary ability): Denial rates nearly doubled from 25.6% in Q4 FY2024 to 46.6% in Q4 FY2025
- EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW): Denials rose from 38.8% in Q4 FY2024 to 64.3% in Q4 FY2025
Over a longer period, the trend is even sharper: NIW denial rates rose from 4.3% in FY2022 to 44.8% in FY2025, states the report.
Temporary work visas also tightening
Denial rates have also increased across key temporary work visa categories, particularly toward the end of FY2025:
- O-1 visas: Denial rates rose from 5.0% in Q4 FY2024 to 7.3% in Q4 FY2025 . These visas are meant for individuals with extraordinary ability in fields such as science, technology, arts, education, business or sports. It is typically used by top researchers, startup founders, artists and senior professionals with a strong record of achievement.
- L-1A visas: Denial rates increased from 8.0% in Q4 FY2024 to 9.6% in Q4 FY2025. These visas are used by multinational companies to transfer senior executives or managers from an overseas office to a US office. It is a key route for leadership mobility within global firms.
- L-1B visas: Denial rates rose from 8.1% in Q4 FY2024 to 9.2% in Q4 FY2025. These visas are also for intracompany transfers, but specifically for employees with specialised knowledge and are often used for technical experts and niche-skilled staff.
H-1B remains stable—but pressure persists
The H-1B visa, widely used by Indian IT professionals, has not seen a comparable increase in denial rates, the denial rates remained stable at around 2.0%–2.1% in FY2025. This is attributed to a 2020 legal settlement, which limits changes to adjudication standards without formal rulemaking.However, policy pressure continues through other measures. President Trump has signed an executive order mandating a $100,000 fee to petition for an H‑1B worker outside the US. Further, selection in the lottery for H-1B cap visas is linked to wages and there is a proposal to increase wages across all levels.
Backlogs and delays worsen the squeeze
For the Indian diaspora, these statistics are worrying. Between Q4 FY2024 and Q4 FY2025, backlogs rose across key immigration filings. Pending I-129 petitions—used by employers to sponsor non-immigrant workers such as H-1B, L-1 and O-1 visa holders — increased by more than 54,000. The backlog for I-140 petitions, which are employer-sponsored applications for employment-based green cards, rose by 58,400.At the final stage, delays also deepened: the backlog for I-485 applications—filed by individuals to adjust status to permanent residence (green card) within the US—continued to grow.
Bottom line
The data signals a clear shift: legal immigration pathways are narrowing over FY2025, particularly in the latter half of the fiscal year, driven by stricter adjudication rather than new laws.
UK inflation lifted to its highest since December after a sharp jump in diesel and petrol prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, according to official figures.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the Iran crisis was “not our war, but it is pushing up bills for families and businesses” as a result.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation increased to 3.3% in March from 3% in February, the Office for National Statistics said.
The increase was in line with predictions from economists.
Higher motor fuel was the main driver of the acceleration in inflation, increasing by 8.7% month-on-month – the largest increase since June 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The ONS found that the average price of petrol rose by 8.6p per litre between February and March to 140.2p per litre. This marked the highest price since August 2024.
Diesel prices meanwhile increased by 17.6p per litre in March to an average of 158.7p per litre, the highest price since November 2023.
Office for National Statistics chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Inflation climbed in March, largely due to increased fuel prices, which saw their largest increase for over three years.
“Air fares were another upward driver this month, alongside rising food prices.
“The only significant offset came from clothing costs, where prices rose by less than this time last year.”
The data revealed that the cost of air travel also increased significantly, with inflation of 14.5% compared with the same month last year.
The rise in air fares, which analysts have partly linked to the early timing of the Easter holidays, was the highest since July last year.
Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic drink prices were up 3.7% year-on-year in March, accelerating from 3.3% inflation in the previous month.
This included another acceleration in the price of sweets and chocolates, which were up 10.6% year-on-year.
Elsewhere, clothing and footwear had a downward pressure on inflation, as prices dipped 0.8% for the month.
Sales and discounting activity pulled inflation in the category to its lowest level since March 2021.
The rise in the overall rate of inflation drives the UK further away from the 2% inflation target set by the Government and the Bank of England.
Ms Reeves said: “We’re acting to protect people from unfair price rises if they occur to bring down food prices at the till, and are boosting long-term energy security — building a stronger, more secure economy.”
James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, said: “The latest rise in UK headline CPI tells us virtually nothing about the scale and duration of the inflation wave to come.
“The Bank of England is still flying blind, with the conflict unresolved, but the limited amount of survey data available so far suggests little cause for alarm on inflation.”
Anna Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said: “As inflation has come in in line with revised expectations, and given yesterday’s labour market data which showed a fall in vacancies and further downward progress in wage growth, interest rates should hold at next week’s MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting.
“But there remains tremendous uncertainty over the outlook for energy supply and prices.”
The Manx treasury says plans are in place to protect essential services in the wake of the Iran war.
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High-Skilled Immigration: US tightens screws on high-skilled immigration: Denial rates surge across key visa categories – The Times of India
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