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Liverpool can’t keep winning games like this — or can they?

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Liverpool can’t keep winning games like this — or can they?


Let’s do a quick blind comparison of two Premier League teams from this current season.

Team A still hasn’t lost a game. In fact, it hasn’t earned a draw. In fact, it hasn’t even trailed in a game. We’re just five matches into the season, and it already has a five-point lead atop the table. That’s tied with one other side for the biggest lead through five games in the history of the Premier League. And the other team to do it? It won the title by 18 points.

Meanwhile, Team B has scored 11 goals and conceded five. That gives it a plus-six goal differential, the third-best mark in the league. At least 50 other teams in Premier League history have outscored their opponents by more goals through five matches, and the same holds true for goals scored and goals conceded. It’s good … but it’s not great. Last season, Tottenham had a better goal differential than this team through five matches, and they finished one place clear of the relegation zone.

So, which team would you rather be?

It’s a trick question, of course: Team A and Team B are the same team.

Liverpool are undefeated this season, but they’ve still only won one match by more than a goal. And even in that one, the season-opener against Bournemouth, they didn’t take the lead for good until the 88th minute.

Liverpool beat Newcastle on the road thanks to a goal in the 100th minute from 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha. They took down Arsenal with an 83rd-minute free kick by Dominik Szoboszlai. They needed a 95th-minute penalty from Mohamed Salah to beat Burnley. Virgil van Dijk headed in the winner in the 92nd minute of their Champions League opener against Atletico Madrid. And Hugo Ekitike‘s 85th-minute tap-in-turned-red-card secured a 2-1 win against Southampton in the Carabao Cup.

Liverpool have somehow been even better and much worse than anyone would’ve predicted at the start of the season. So, let’s ask the same question that rival fans seem to be screaming, week after week: They can’t keep this up … right?


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Why do Liverpool score so many late goals?

Whenever a team continues to win in such an improbable fashion, it is attributed to a club’s superior, never-say-die mentality. That was the case with Manchester United under Sir Alex Ferguson. It’s what happens with Real Madrid in the Champions League every year. And it frequently felt true with Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp — and now it seems true under Arne Slot, too.

The stats seem to back that up. Since the Premier League was created in the early 90s, Liverpool have won 43 games with a goal in the 90th minute or later — a whopping 13 more than any other side.

So, Liverpool are better at winning games late than everyone else — or are they? At least, I’m not sure that’s what that statistic is telling us. There’s a more economic explanation for it.

Liverpool have the third-most points of any club in the Premier League era. On the whole, Arsenal and Manchester United have been better than Liverpool since 1993, so those two clubs haven’t had to win as many late games. Then, when Manchester City and Chelsea entered the picture with their wealthy new owners in the 2000s, they typically had better and more expensive squads than Liverpool. Before that, they weren’t anywhere near as competitive as Liverpool.

So, Liverpool sit in that sweet spot where they won lots of games and therefore, they won lots of late games. But they also weren’t as talented as the other teams that won lots of games, so a higher proportion of their wins came from late goals.

There’s definitely an Anfield effect here — opposing players tend to agree that it’s the hardest place in England to play. So, if you combine that with the fact that, for most of the Premier League era, Liverpool have been competing with richer and better teams, then it makes sense that they’ve needed to use every minute of every game to keep up.

Now, that isn’t quite as true anymore. They spent a net of $309 million on transfer fees this past summer. They made $773m in revenue in 2023-24, and some estimates rank them as the fourth-most valuable club in the world after Manchester United, Real Madrid, and Barcelona. Per FBref, they have the sixth-highest wage bill in the world.

So what’s the explanation for all of the late winners this season?

Liverpool have been the best team in the league when the score is tied in the second half of matches. They’ve scored four goals and conceded zero — both best or tied-for-best marks in the Premier League. They’ve also attempted 28 shots (nine more than anyone else) and conceded only five. The 23-shot margin is by far the largest in the league; no one else is above 10. Part of the reason they’ve scored so many late winners is that they’ve heavily tilted the field whenever they’ve needed a late winner.

Here’s how it looks for the whole league when we compare xG (expected goals) created and xG conceded in the second half when the score is tied:

Liverpool have created 2.49 xG and conceded just 0.11 at this game-state. The defense allows almost nothing, while the attack creates a ton. That’s great, but it still doesn’t answer the bigger, more important question.

Why do Liverpool need all of these late comebacks?

There are two problems with all of these late-game, tied-score stats: (1) we’re already cutting a small sample of five matches into an even smaller one, and (2) not everyone has played the same number of minutes with the score tied in the second half. If you’re one of the best teams in the world, ideally, you’re not spending too much time there.

Liverpool have needed so many late winners mainly because they’ve been quite poor whenever they’ve taken the lead. They’ve conceded 25 shots and attempted 25 when they’ve been up by at least a goal.

Now, it’s normal for teams not to register as many attempts once they’re leading, but good teams usually make up for that by creating higher-quality attempts than normal when they do attack because their opponent has to push the action and leave space behind the defense. Liverpool, though, haven’t exploited that.

Liverpool’s xG created and conceded is almost exactly even when they’re winning, and it has led to four goals being scored and five being conceded.

We’re still too early into the season to be too confident about any conclusions, but this sure looks like the profile of a team that has spent a ton of money on attack-first players and has spent most of the season playing with only two true midfielders, neither of whom is defensive-minded.

When opponents aren’t incentivized to attack against Liverpool — when they’re tied and we’re in the second half, a draw is in sight — then the imbalance doesn’t matter. Liverpool keep the ball and their attackers attack, and it all works. But once the other team has to attack, Liverpool can’t control the game anymore. They had 55% of the final-third possession when winning last season; this year, it’s down to 46%.

That’s not too surprising — it might even be by design — but what is surprising is that a team with Florian Wirtz and Mohamed Salah and Dominik Szoboszlai and Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak still hasn’t made teams really pay on the counter-attack. Liverpool’s xG per shot when they’re leading is 0.10 — or slightly below the league average for teams that are ahead. Last season, it was up at 0.13.

So what does it all mean?

Though Liverpool’s matches have been strangely partitioned this season, it’s better to look at everything together, and history tells us as much. From the previous 10 Premier League seasons, I looked at a number of statistics from Stats Perform for the first five matches to see what best correlated with points won over the final 33 games of the season. Looking at only certain game states made the predictions worse, as did removing what you might think would be the randomness of penalties.

The stat that best correlated with rest-of-season stats was “adjusted goal differential” — the blend of 70% of Stats Perform’s expected goals and 30% actual goals that I’ve referenced countless times before. It was more accurate than just goals, just expected goals, and just points. The correlation (also known as “r-squared”) was 0.44, which means that 44% of the variation between the points every team has won over the final 33 games over the past 10 seasons can be explained by each team’s adjusted goal difference through the first five games.

Here’s how that looks:

And here’s how things look across the league so far this season, by adjusted goal differential:

Ironically, this is exactly what happened the last time Liverpool won the league in 2019-20. The following season, their adjusted goal differential through the first five games was plus-0.78, the same number they’ve got now. They then won 59 more points over the rest of the season and finished in third.

That team, though, soon lost Virgil van Dijk for the season, followed by their second- and third-choice center backs, Joel Matip and Joe Gomez, respectively. This team has still had its club-record signing, Alexander Isak, on the field for only 24 total Premier League minutes. And though the one match he started also required a last-second winner, at home against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, it was also the one game where Liverpool dominated after they led. With Liverpool leading, the shot count was close, 12 to 9 in favor of the hosts, but Liverpool created 1.32 expected goals to Atletico’s 0.38.

As it stands, though, Arsenal have played about as well as Liverpool did last season, while Liverpool have played about as well as Arsenal did. Their current adjusted goal differentials are nearly the same as the other team’s full-season marks from last year. Over the past 10 seasons, the best a team has done while playing at Liverpool’s current level — somewhere between a 0.5 and 0.8 adjusted goal differential — was Leicester’s 81 points in their 5,000-to-1 championship season. While the worst a team with a plus-1-or-better adjusted goal differential has done was Liverpool’s 78 points in 2017-18.

Now, it could happen, but the overwhelmingly likely outcome of Liverpool and Arsenal maintaining their current performance levels is that Arsenal wins the league. Given how Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, and Martin Odegaard have already missed significant time and how they’ve already played Liverpool and Manchester City, it seems unlikely that Arsenal decline too much from here on out. So, hang on to their current lead, Liverpool will have to improve; they’ll need to stop falling apart once they take a lead, and they’ll need to start winning some matches before the 85th minute.

But while all those last-second winners can’t be relied upon for the rest of the season, they did happen. Dominik Szoboszlai briefly harnessed the power of gravity against Arsenal, in a way no Arsenal player did against Liverpool. Szoboszlai, too, had the presence of mind to dummy a pass and create a massive opening for Rio Ngumoha to slot home the winner against Newcastle. And because Liverpool have executed in so many of these high-leverage moments already, they’ve built a sizable cushion.

They need to be better from now through the end of the season if they want to win the title, but they don’t actually need to be better than Arsenal. They just need to be four points worse.



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Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal eye Bayer Leverkusen forward

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Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal eye Bayer Leverkusen forward


Arsenal are keeping an eye on Bayer Leverkusen striker Christian Kofane, while Liverpool could join the race for soon-to-be free agent center back Marcos Senesi.

Join us for the latest transfer news and rumors from around the globe.

Transfers home page | Men’s winter grades | Women’s grades

TRENDING RUMORS

Arsenal are closely tracking Bayer Leverkusen youngster Christian Kofane, according to Sky Germany. The 19-year-old forward made an impression on Arsenal when he faced them in the Champions League round of 16 this season, and could be on the move as soon as this summer. Leverkusen would be willing to let the player move in a deal worth between €60 million and €70 million. With Bayern Munich not interested in signing him, the Premier League viewed as the most likely destination.

Liverpool could rival Barcelona for defender Marcos Senesi this summer, reports TEAMTalk. The Bournemouth star is set to become a free agent at the end of the season after four years on the south coast. Senesi, 28, has been heavily linked with a move to Barcelona, who still lead the race to sign him ahead of LaLiga rivals Atletico Madrid. However, that move could depend on whether Barça can land Alessandro Bastoni, who remains their top center back target.

– Both Manchester United and Manchester City will “move quickly” to try and sign Elliot Anderson, The Sun reports. Any deal for the Nottingham Forest midfielder is expected to be worth around £100 million if he does move this summer. However, both Manchester clubs fear an impressive performance at the World Cup this summer could see his value skyrocket further. City are reportedly leading the race for Anderson, although Newcastle United’s Sandro Tonali also remains on their radar, should the Italy international fail to agree a contract extension on Tyneside.

– Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig are in the race to sign Anderlecht wonderkid Nathan De Cat, Sky Germany reports. The 17-year-old also remains on Bayern Munich’s shortlist, although all three Bundesliga clubs will prioritise a move for Hertha Berlin’s Kennet Eichhorn once the transfer window reopens. De Cat, meanwhile, is under contract at Anderlecht until 2027, and could be available for around €20 million this summer.

Newcastle United may swoop for Werder Bremen youngster Karim Coulibaly this summer, Fabrizio Romano has revealed. The Magpies are one of several clubs keeping tabs on Coulibaly, who has shone in the Bundesliga this season. The Germany youth international is said to be ready to take the next step in his career, with a host of major European clubs keen on signing the 18-year-old.

EXPERT TAKE

According to the Sun, both Manchester clubs are worried that a deal for Elliot Anderson will become a lot more expensive after the World Cup. ESPN’s Sam Tighe explains why he is primed to have a big role for England this summer:

There’s little doubt who Declan Rice’s first-choice central midfield partner will be for England this summer. Anderson has enjoyed two exceptional seasons with Nottingham Forest and has seamlessly transferred that form to the national team.

Despite having just seven caps to his name, he feels like an experienced, steady presence in the middle. His all-round game is extremely strong — he is energetic and defensively active, yet he is also comfortable in handling a huge volume of passes in a controlled possession system. There’s a good reason he has already been repeatedly linked with summer transfer moves to Manchester City and Manchester United.

OTHER RUMORS

play

0:57

Hutchison: Cucurella ‘out of order’ for Chelsea transfer policy criticism

Don Hutchison reacts to Marc Cucurella’s recent comments about Chelsea’s transfer policy.

– Manchester United are determined to retain Bruno Fernandes, despite there being a £57 million release clause in his contract. (Daily Express)

– Liverpool are prepared to let as many as seven players leave the club this summer, including Andy Robertson, Joe Gomez and Curtis Jones. (Daily Star)

– Liverpool and Manchester United are monitoring Juventus midfielder Khéphren Thuram, whose future in Italy is far from secure. (TuttoJuve)

– Tottenham and Newcastle United are “admirers” of Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen, who is also being tracked by Bayern Munich. (TEAMTalk)

– Sunderland are very interested in signing Bologna defender Jhon Lucumí this summer. (Sport Witness)

– Pep Guardiola has revealed that Manchester City won’t stand in Rodri‘s way if he wishes to leave the club. (Sky Sports News)

– Barcelona sent a scout to watch Cagliari defender Marco Palestra last month. (Nicolo Schira)

– Elversberg are seriously considering triggering an option to purchase on loan midfielder Łukasz Poręba at the end of the season. (Rudy Galetti)

– Nottingham Forest and Southampton are keen on signing 16-year-old Boyd Fraser from Hearts. (Fabrizio Romano)



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Pakistan’s Samar Khan completes 300km Arctic dogsled challenge

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Pakistan’s Samar Khan completes 300km Arctic dogsled challenge


Pakistani adventure athlete and snowboarder Samar Khan raises the Pakistani flag on the Fjallraven Polar 2026. — Instagram/@skhanathlete

Pakistani adventure athlete and snowboarder Samar Khan has completed Fjallraven Polar 2026, crossing the finish line of a 300km dogsled expedition across the frozen Arctic tundra.

Sharing the milestone on Instagram, Khan described the journey as far more than a physical test, saying it pushed her through “exhaustion, doubt, and limits I didn’t know existed”.

She wrote that the expedition had taken her through days in the freezing wilderness, where the silence of the Arctic forced her to confront both hardship and self-belief. 

Khan described the experience as a test of “resilience, courage and belief”, framing the achievement not just as the completion of an endurance challenge, but as the end point of a longer struggle that had begun before she even left for the expedition.

She revealed that visa uncertainty had cast doubt over the trip and said she received her stamped passport only one day before her flight. “From visa uncertainties to receiving my stamped passport just one day before my flight… this journey challenged me long before it even began,” she wrote.

For Khan, the finish was not only personal. “Still taking it all in… but this moment belongs to Pakistan,” she said, framing the finish as a moment of national pride as well as individual accomplishment.

Pakistani adventure athlete and snowboarder Samar Khan during the Fjallraven Polar 2026. — Instagram/@skhanathlete
Pakistani adventure athlete and snowboarder Samar Khan during the Fjallraven Polar 2026. — Instagram/@skhanathlete

She also thanked the Fjallraven team and Sweden in Pakistan for helping expedite her visa process and make the journey possible for a Pakistani athlete.

Fjallraven Polar is a long-distance Arctic expedition centred on dogsled travel across harsh, sub-zero terrain, demanding sustained physical endurance and mental resilience from participants over multiple days.

The post closed on a message aimed at others who may have been told they could not pursue difficult or unconventional ambitions, with Khan presenting the feat as proof that limits can be challenged, she wrote: “For everyone who’s ever been told ‘you can’t’, This is your sign. You can !!”





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UCLA survives late surge from Texas to make first NCAA title game

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UCLA survives late surge from Texas to make first NCAA title game


PHOENIX — There would be no offensive showcase between UCLA and Texas on Friday night, a slog of a game that ended up as one of the lowest scoring in women’s Final Four history. The Bruins did just enough to give themselves a chance to win the first NCAA championship in the NCAA tournament era.

Behind Lauren Betts and a defensive performance that stifled Madison Booker and the Longhorns, UCLA held off a late Texas run and avenged its only loss of the season 51-44 in the semifinals, setting up a title game showdown against South Carolina on Sunday afternoon.

“All you can ask for is an opportunity to play your best basketball for a national championship,” UCLA coach Cori Close said.

UCLA, which has won 30 straight games since losing to Texas on Nov. 26, reached the title game for the first time in program history, though the Bruins did win the AIAW Large College championship in 1978. Ann Meyers Drysdale and several other players on the 1978 team were at the game, and Close made sure to acknowledge her and the precedent that group set.

For the Bruins, it felt a bit like redemption, not only because they fell to Texas 76-65 in November, but also because their Final Four showing last year as the No. 1 overall seed ended in an 85-51 blowout loss to UConn. UCLA coach Cori Close told reporters in the leadup to Friday’s game that she had done a “crappy job as a leader.” Players vowed to do better.

“Last year we took that loss really hard,” Betts said. “I think it made us think a lot about what we could have done better, not just in practice but as a team, leadership, being able to have tough conversations. I’m just really proud of the growth and the way that we’ve held such a high standard consistently this year.”

The Bruins advanced, but nothing about Friday’s victory was pretty. UCLA, which averages 85.1 points, had its fair share of issues scoring on the stifling Texas defense. UCLA had 23 turnovers, the most in a Final Four game since April 8, 2008, when Stanford had 24 against Tennessee.

But Texas fared worse and scored a season-low 44 points on just 30.8% shooting from the field, looking nothing like the team that had reeled off 12 straight wins after a loss to Vanderbilt in November in which coach Vic Schaefer questioned his team’s toughness. Booker, who averaged 19.3 points per game this season, had a season-low six points on 3-of-23 shooting.

“We couldn’t make a shot tonight, and that’s been my fear the last three days,” Schaefer said. “And this isn’t the place to air out our laundry, but we had more than one occasion where we might have a play called … and we just weren’t in the right place, people out of position. Sometimes these things happen on this stage and it’s not anybody’s fault.”

Schaefer added: “I have no idea why the good Lord picked tonight for us to not be able to make a shot. I think we feel like in our locker room, we let one get away. I think this one will haunt me as the coach for probably till the day I die.”

Close said she knew this game was going to come down to defense, but she never expected it to play out this way, apologizing to the fans “for the rugby match and 23 turnovers.” But she also told her team after beating Iowa 96-45 in the Big Ten title game, “You cannot fall in love with pretty offense and think that it’s going to be like this every game.”

“I told them there’s going to be a game in the NCAA tournament that you’re going to have to just grind it out and do it with your defense,” Close said. “This was the game we needed that. But the reality is, it’s really all about toughness at this point and finding a way to make a winning play, even if it’s a winning play you wouldn’t have predicted or chosen.”

Texas could not hit an open shot for long stretches, and Booker struggled. After making her first shot of the game, she missed 17 straight, the longest drought by any player in Final Four history. It was a stark contrast to their win over the Bruins in November, when Booker had 16 points and Rori Harmon had 26.

In that game, Betts scored only eight points. She was determined to change that in Friday’s rematch, and in a game in which points were at a premium, she did enough to assert her presence in the paint to be a difference-maker. Betts led UCLA with 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting and had 11 rebounds.

Given the scoring issues for both teams, the game stayed tight through the first three quarters. UCLA led 31-28 leaded into the fourth, but a 7-0 run broke the game open, keyed by a 3-pointer from Kiki Rice at the 9:04 mark and then a layup by Gabriela Jaquez to give the Bruins a double-digit lead.

UCLA led by 13 points with 4:36 to play, but Texas whittled that lead down to 47-44 with 55.8 seconds remaining, as its defensive intensity forced UCLA to turn the ball over and miss shots. Following a missed jumper by Angela Dugalic with 30 seconds left, Booker went for a layup, but Betts blocked the shot with 20 seconds remaining. Rice made two free throws with 13.3 seconds remaining to seal the victory.

“The entire game the coaches are just continuously telling me sprint back, sprint back, sprint back,” Betts said. “As soon as I saw [Booker] getting downhill, I’m like, all right, please block this, just don’t let her score.”

UCLA set the defensive tone early in the game, contesting nearly every shot and holding Texas to just six first-quarter points — tied for the second-fewest points in a quarter in the Final Four since quarters were adopted in 2016. But in the second quarter, the Bruins scored just six points themselves.

It all added up to becoming just the third time in Final Four history that the teams combined for fewer than 100 points in a game.

But what does that matter when you are standing on the verge of school history?

“This is what we all came here to do,” Jaquez said. “Just super proud of us to get us to the chance to have another opportunity to play for a national championship.”

ESPN’s Michael Voepel contributed to this report.



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