Fashion
Luxury stocks’ nascent revival is about to face earnings test
By
Bloomberg
Published
October 14, 2025
The recent rally in the shares of luxury goods makers will be put to the test this earnings season, as valuations are already back at demanding levels.
After a rocky first half of the year, a gauge tracking the sector has jumped 14% over the past two months in a relief rally as damage from the Trump administration’s tariffs prove less severe than feared for exporters. That’s cranking up the pressure on companies to deliver market-pleasing results, even as they battle challenges like China’s uneven economic recovery and the stronger euro.
Earnings and sales growth for luxury companies has been lacking for almost two years amid falling demand from key markets such as China- which for decades had been a key support. Analysts have been cautious about calling a recovery, with data from Deutsche Bank AG showing no substantial acceleration in sales for the sector until the first quarter of 2026, at the earliest, as the industry remains stuck in its post-pandemic slump.
For this season, the sector could see easier year-earlier comparisons as third-quarter numbers begin to roll out- kicking off with LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE on Tuesday. But the overall picture remains blurry.
“The recent rally does set the bar higher,” said Buenyamin Ak, a research analyst at Flossbach von Storch AG. “I would expect that providing unquantifiable, loose hopes would lead to disappointing price reactions.”
Europe’s flagship sector has grappled with lacklustre demand from the crucial Chinese market. Repeated calls that the sector’s most important source of growth is on the brink of a comeback have failed to prove correct.
Recent Chinese factory activity data showed evidence that sluggishness in the economy persisted through the end of the third quarter. Moreover, the summer ended with two of the weakest months for retail sales this year and the recent Golden Week holiday reflected subdued consumer spending.
To make things worse, the euro has climbed 12% this year against the dollar. That’s a burden on margins for luxury manufacturers, who have their costs based in the common currency but generate most revenue outside of Europe.
For some analysts, these twin external headwinds could provide the nudge companies need to confront problems closer to home.
“Weaker brands blame macroeconomics- tariffs, the China real estate market, geopolitical tensions- when the reality is more down-to-earth,” HSBC Holdings Plc analyst Erwan Rambourg wrote in a note. “Products grew too expensive and there was a lack of innovation/creativity.”
Investors have recently favoured shares in companies with a willingness to tackle internal crises dragging on performance. Take Gucci owner Kering SA and UK fashion brand Burberry Group Plc as examples. Their shares have climbed 27% and 21% this year, respectively.
After years of underperformance, Kering posted its best-ever quarterly stock gain on optimism that new CEO Luca de Meo will revive the Gucci brand. At Burberry, early signs of success from CEO Joshua Schulman on refocusing the brand on its British roots and better promoting its flagship outerwear products have triggered a recovery rally in the shares. However, the revival in sales and profits hasn’t materialised yet.
“There has been some speculative buying in recent weeks, focused on companies with new creative leaders but where we have yet to see any real evidence of an earnings inflection,” said Sam Glover, a fund manager at EFG Asset Management.
After seeing its stock plunging 42% between January and June, LVMH was upgraded to buy last week by analysts at Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. They see the Christian Dior and Louis Vuitton owner as among the potential beneficiaries of less pessimistic sentiment among investors.
LVMH’s management team “has reacted with a number of management and creative designer changes,” said Deutsche Bank’s Adam Cochrane. “With a tough consumer backdrop, an increase in the pace of innovation and exciting customers with new products is paramount.”
But a look at analyst estimates for the company’s profits shows it still trails those of rival Hermes International SCA, while the rebound in the stock since June has sent its valuation back to near 25 times forward earnings.
Over the past month, fashion weeks in Paris and Milan have offered a glimpse of how luxury companies plan to convince shoppers to open their wallets again. Investors, however, may need more time before they share in the enthusiasm elicited by the latest catwalk presentations.
“If you just follow a fashion calendar and sort of a lead time, these collections would most likely come to stores at the very end of the second or third quarter next year,” UBS Group AG analyst Zuzanna Pusz said. “At this stage, that’s the earliest we could see things improve.”
“We are thrilled to welcome Erinn Murphy to Kontoor Brands,” said executive vice president, chief financial officer & global head of operations, Joe Alkire. “Having led investor relations and corporate strategy from within a high-growth consumer brand and nearly twenty years of experience covering global lifestyle brands as a respected senior equity analyst, she understands what drives long-term value creation from every angle. Her perspective will expand the operational and strategic depth of the Helly Hansen leadership team as we focus on accelerating growth and expanding the brand’s global reach, while also strengthening how Kontoor engages with the investment community.”
Kontoor Brands has named Erinn Murphy VP, global head of finance & operations for Helly Hansen and Corporate Investor Relations, starting May in Oslo.
She joins from Crocs, Inc., bringing nearly two decades of experience across investor relations, strategy and equity research.
Michael Karapetian will expand his role and return in Q3 2026 to support transition and investor engagement.
Murphy joins Kontoor from Crocs, Inc., a global leader in innovative casual footwear, where she served as Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy. Prior to that, she served as Managing Director of Consumer Equity Capital Markets for leading investment bank, Piper Sandler. She was recently appointed as a member of the board of directors for Revolve Group, Inc. (NYSE: RVLV).
Murphy’s appointment coincides with an expanded role for Michael Karapetian, who will serve as Vice President, Global Brand & Operations Finance and Corporate Investor Relations, with responsibility for all aspects of global brand and supply chain finance and corporate investor relations. Karapetian will return from his international assignment at Helly Hansen in the third quarter of 2026 to allow for a transition period.
Note: The headline, insights, and image of this press release may have been refined by the Fibre2Fashion staff; the rest of the content remains unchanged.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RM)
The group reported first-quarter (Q1) 2026 revenue of €3,568 million (~$4,210.24 million), down 6 per cent year-over-year (YoY) on a reported basis but stable on a comparable basis, signalling early signs of recovery despite geopolitical pressures.
Kering’s Q1 2026 revenue reached €3,568 million (~$4,210.24 million), down 6 per cent YoY but stable comparably, signalling early recovery.
Retail fell 2 per cent, while wholesale rose 6 per cent.
Fashion & Leather Goods sales went down 9 per cent.
Gucci declined 14 per cent to €1,347 million (~$1,589.46 million).
Middle East retail dropped 11 per cent, contributing 5 per cent of sales.
“In the first quarter of 2026, group revenue stabilised, marking an important first step in our recovery and a further sequential improvement. This performance reflects the first tangible effects of our actions, despite a challenging geopolitical environment,” said Luca de Meo, CEO of Kering.
Retail sales, including e-commerce, declined 2 per cent on a comparable basis, reflecting uneven regional demand. Wholesale revenue rose 6 per cent, Kering said in a press release.
Kering’s Fashion & Leather Goods posted a revenue of €2,852 million, down 9 per cent reported and 3 per cent comparable. Direct retail sales fell 4 per cent. Growth was driven by Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga and Brioni, particularly in North America.
Saint Laurent saw strong traction in shoes and ready-to-wear, while Bottega Veneta performed well in Asia-Pacific. Balenciaga continued to benefit from leather goods demand, and Brioni maintained positive momentum. Wholesale revenue for the segment increased 2 per cent.
Gucci posted €1,347 million (~$1,589.46 million) in revenue, down 14 per cent reported and 8 per cent comparable. Retail sales declined 9 per cent. North America grew 8 per cent, but this was offset by declines in Asia-Pacific and Western Europe.
“Gucci remains our top priority. A comprehensive turnaround is underway, with decisive actions across client, distribution and, above all, the offer,” added de Meo. “We have reset the product architecture and strengthened category focus, with new collections rolling out progressively in stores throughout the year.”
Regionally, the Middle East remains a key area of focus, contributing around 5 per cent of retail revenue. The Group operates 79 stores and employs approximately 1,100 people in the region. Retail revenue there declined 11 per cent in Q1 following earlier growth, amid geopolitical tensions. However, all stores are currently operational.
Kering continued to strengthen its operational structure and growth platforms during the quarter.
“The first quarter of 2026 marked continued progress, as we executed with pace and focus. We have launched a Group platform designed to support the growth of our Houses and enhance efficiency,” said de Meo.
Kering remains focused on restoring growth and improving margins in 2026 through disciplined execution and strategic repositioning.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
The May 2026 contract settled at 75.11 cents per pound, up 0.77 cent or 1 per cent. The most traded contract of July 2026 rallied 0.90 cent or 1.20 per cent to settle at 77.42 cents per pound. It had touched an intraday high of 77.75 cents, marking its highest level since July 2024. Other contracts also rose to reach a high level.
ICE cotton surged to a 22-month high, led by a weaker US dollar, firm crude oil and drought concerns in key US regions.
The July 2026 contract hit its highest since July 2024.
Strong trading volumes and rising synthetic fibre costs supported demand, while weather risks and macro factors kept market sentiment firmly bullish.
Deliverable stocks remained unchanged, signalling tight supply conditions.
Total trading volume was recorded at 98,489 contracts, reflecting strong participation and sustained buying interest.
Crude oil prices remained firm as supply disruption concerns persisted due to ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Markets reacted to mixed signals after statements indicating a possible end to the US-Iran conflict, but uncertainty kept oil prices supported. The conflict has effectively disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20 per cent of global oil and gas shipments along with key commodities like fertilisers. Elevated crude oil prices are increasing polyester fibre production costs, thereby supporting cotton demand as a substitute fibre.
The US dollar index edged lower and traded in a narrow range as investors assessed the likelihood of renewed US-Iran negotiations. A weaker dollar made US cotton more competitive in global markets, providing additional support to export demand.
According to market analysts, high crude oil prices and rising synthetic fibre costs are key drivers supporting the cotton market, along with the impact of a weaker dollar.
The ongoing drought conditions in the United States also continued to pose risks to crop development unless weather conditions improve. Weather conditions in major US cotton-producing regions remain dry, reinforcing concerns over crop health, yield potential, and overall supply outlook.
ICE data showed that deliverable No. 2 cotton futures stocks remained unchanged at 159,512 bales as of April 14.
Broader financial markets showed strength, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs driven by strong corporate earnings and optimism around geopolitical developments. CBOT wheat futures rose for the third consecutive session and have gained nearly 4 per cent so far this week due to drought conditions in the US Plains impacting crop prospects.
Cotton futures remain in a strong bullish phase with prices at multi-month highs, supported by macroeconomic factors such as a weaker dollar and firm crude oil, along with fundamental support from adverse US weather conditions. Market sentiment continues to favour further upside in the near term.
This morning (Indian Standard Time), ICE cotton for May 2026 was trading at 75.98 cents per pound (up 0.87 cent), cash cotton at 73.11 cents (up 0.77 cent), the July 2026 contract at 78.32 cents (up 0.90 cent), the October 2026 contract at 78.94 cents (up 1.37 cent), the December 2026 contract at 79.10 cents (up 0.75 cent) and the March 2027 contract at 79.85 cents (up 0.66 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded so far today.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)
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