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Most U.S. consumers expect higher holiday prices and a weaker economy, survey finds

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Most U.S. consumers expect higher holiday prices and a weaker economy, survey finds


As the peak holiday shopping season approaches, most U.S. consumers have a downbeat outlook on the economy, according to an annual Deloitte survey published Wednesday.

Most consumers surveyed — 57% — said they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead, the consulting firm found in a poll of roughly 4,000 respondents. That compares with 30% who expected a weaker economy ahead of the year-ago holiday season and 54% in 2008, one of the years of the Great Recession.

It marks the most negative economic outlook since Deloitte began tracking that in 1997.

Seventy-seven percent of people surveyed said they expect higher prices on holiday items, up from 69% last year, according to Deloitte. It’s the first holiday season since President Donald Trump‘s latest wave of tariff hikes on many imports.

“We’ve been talking about the resilient consumer for a while now, that despite all these pressures, the U.S. consumer continues to spend and we keep seeing growth and spending for retail,” said Brian McCarthy, retail strategy leader for Deloitte. “This outlook is starting to suggest that we’re getting towards the end of that resilience.”

Consumers’ pessimistic mindset has factored into their spending plans during the holiday season. They plan to spend an average of $1,595, 10% less than the $1,778 they planned to spend in the year-ago period, as they brace for higher prices, according to the Deloitte survey.

The lower anticipated spending cuts across all household income groups and nearly all generations, Deloitte found. Yet it was especially significant among younger shoppers.

Gen Z consumers, which in the survey were between ages 18 and 28, said they plan to spend an average of 34% less this holiday season than a year ago. Millennials, respondents between age 29 and 44 in the poll, said they expect to spend an average of 13% less this holiday season.

That compares with Gen X, which plans to spend an average of 3% more, and baby boomers, who expect to spend an average of 6% less.

For Gen Z shoppers, the tighter holiday budget likely comes from feeling more uncertain and unstable early in their careers, McCarthy said.

“They’re thinking about income and the job market and the concerns about the economy is going to throw a lot more pressure on them because they haven’t yet had time to sort of build up their savings or plan for less rosy economic environments,” he said.

Mike Daher, U.S. consumer industry leader for Deloitte, said the age group is also “exposed to a lot of inflationary pressures around housing costs,” along with higher prices for everyday items like groceries.

For retailers and brands, the findings add a note of caution to the most crucial sales period of the year. Other holiday forecasts have also found households expect to spend less, while still reflecting consumers’ appetite for decorating and giving gifts during the festive season.

Holiday spending across stores and online is expected to rise 4% year over year, according to consulting firm Bain & Co., a drop from the 10-year average of 5.2% growth. A separate Adobe Analytics report found online holiday spending in the U.S. is expected to grow 5.3% year over year, but that would be slower than the year-ago increase of 8.7% year over year.

Like Deloitte’s poll, consulting firm PwC’s survey indicated a holiday pullback among Gen Z consumers, who said they planned to spend 23% less than during the year-ago period. Overall, consumers said they expect to spend about 5% less – or an average total of $1,552 – on holiday gifts, travel and entertainment compared with the year-ago season, according to the PwC survey.

The National Retail Federation, the major industry trade group, plans to share its holiday forecast in early November.

Though holiday outlooks have varied, one of the dominant themes of this holiday season will be value-seeking, Deloitte’s McCarthy said. Even in the past several months, the firm has found a notable uptick in the number of U.S. consumers who have reported seeking deals. Across income groups, Deloitte’s survey indicated that 7 in 10 respondents are engaging in three or more deal-seeking behaviors, such as purchasing store brands or alternative ingredients, cooking more meals at home and buying used cars.

As consumers watch their budgets, they told Deloitte they will cut back on holiday-related extras. On average, consumers said they plan to spend $397 on nongift holiday expenses, such as hosting, clothing and decor, a 22% drop from $507 a year ago.

For gifts, however, the cut wasn’t as deep. On average, survey respondents said they plan to buy eight gifts compared with nine in the year-ago period and spend 6% less on average, a drop to $505 compared with $536 in the prior-year holiday season.



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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs

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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs



BP has warned it expects to book up to five billion dollars (£3.7 billion) in write-downs across its gas and low-carbon energy division as it also said oil trading had been weak in its final quarter.

The oil giant joined FTSE 100 rival Shell, after it also last week cautioned over a weaker performance from trading, which comes amid a drop in the cost of crude.

BP said Brent crude prices averaged 63.73 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of last year compared with 69.13 dollars a barrel in the previous three months.

Oil prices have slumped in recent weeks, partly driven lower due to US President Donald Trump’s move to oust and detain Venezuela’s leader and lay claim to crude in the region, leading to fears of a supply glut.

In its update ahead of full-year results, BP also said it expects to book a four billion dollar (£3 billion) to five billion dollar (£3.7 billion) impairment in its so-called transition businesses, largely relating to its gas and low-carbon energy division.

But it said further progress had been made in slashing debts, with its net debt falling to between 22 billion and 23 billion dollars (£16.4 billion to £17.1 billion) at the end of 2025, down from 26.1 billion dollars (£19.4 billion) at the end of September.

It comes after the firm’s surprise move last month to appoint Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill as its new chief executive as Murray Auchincloss stepped down after less than two years in the role.

Ms O’Neill will start in the role on April 1, with Carol Howle, current executive vice president of supply, trading and shipping at BP, acting as chief executive on an interim basis until the new boss joins.

Ms O’Neill’s appointment has made history as she will become the first woman to run BP – and also the first to head up a top five global oil company – as well as being the first ever outsider to take on the post at BP.

Shares in BP fell 1% in morning trading on Wednesday after the latest update.



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Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India

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Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India


Real estate developers in Kolkata have urged the Centre to use the Union Budget to recalibrate housing policies to reflect rising land and construction costs, calling for higher tax benefits for homebuyers and a long-pending revision of the affordable housing definition to revive demand, especially in the mid-income segment, PTI reported.With the Budget set to be tabled on February 1, industry players said measures such as revisiting price caps for affordable homes, rationalising GST on under-construction properties and easing approval processes could significantly improve affordability and sales momentum.Sushil Mohta, president of CREDAI West Bengal and chairman of Merlin Group, said reforms must align with current market realities. “Revisiting the affordable housing definition, rationalising housing loan interest deductions and streamlining GST rates will significantly improve affordability and demand, especially for middle-income homebuyers,” he told PTI, adding that a policy push for rental housing and wider access to formal housing finance is crucial amid rapid urbanisation.Mahesh Agarwal, managing director of Purti Realty, said continued policy support through tax rationalisation and infrastructure spending remains critical. “A re-evaluation of affordable housing price limits in line with rising land and construction costs, along with adjustments to GST on under-construction property, will enhance affordability,” he said, stressing that simpler tax frameworks and incentives for first-time buyers would help stabilise the market and speed up project execution.Echoing similar concerns, Merlin Group MD Saket Mohta pointed to sharp increases in construction costs since the introduction of GST in 2017, underscoring the need for further rationalisation. He also called for raising the affordable housing price cap from Rs 45 lakh to around Rs 80–90 lakh and expanding unit size norms. “Mid-income housing will be the key demand driver going into 2026, and supportive tax and policy measures are essential to sustain growth,” he said.Eden Realty MD Arya Sumant said the Budget must strike a balance between fiscal discipline and growth-oriented reforms. “Higher home loan interest deductions for mid-income and first-time buyers, an updated affordable housing definition, GST rationalisation and faster approvals will improve project viability and speed-to-market,” he said, adding that sustained urban infrastructure investment would unlock demand across residential and commercial segments.Sahil Saharia, CEO of Bengal Shristi Infrastructure Development Ltd, said policy focus should shift towards large, integrated developments. “Support for mixed-use townships, rental housing and commercial hubs, along with faster clearances and digital single-window mechanisms, can help create self-sustained urban ecosystems and improve execution efficiency,” he said.Developers said clear and stable policy signals in the Budget could help restore homebuyer confidence, attract long-term capital and ensure sustainable growth for the real estate sector in eastern India.



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Asian stocks today: Markets remain mixed after Trump’s Iran remarks; HSI down over 76 points, Kospi gains 1.5% – The Times of India

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Asian stocks today: Markets remain mixed after Trump’s Iran remarks; HSI down over 76 points, Kospi gains 1.5% – The Times of India


Asian markets ended mixed on Thursday, after US President Donald Trump’s comments on Iran, saying that he was told “on good authority” that plans for executions in Iran have stopped. At the same time, oil prices dropped sharply, falling more than $2 a barrel.Hong Kong’s HSI was up 76 point or 0.28% down at 26,923. Nikkei plunged 230 points or 0.42% to trade at 54,110. Shanghai and Shenzhen ended down 0.33% and up 0.41%. In South Korea, Kospi was up 1.5% or 74 points.US benchmark crude slid $2, or 3.4%, to $59.75 a barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell $2.31, or 3.5%, to $64.21 a barrel.Shares of Toyota Industries rose 6.2% after reports said Toyota Motor had increased its buyout offer for the company to 18,800 yen ($118.61) per share. US futures were little changed. The future for the S&P 500 rose by less than 0.1%, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down by less than 0.1%.On Wednesday, Wall Street closed lower for a second consecutive session. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 1%.Losses were led by Big Tech stocks, even as most shares on Wall Street advanced. The sector came under pressure as investors pulled back from the artificial intelligence rally and amid warnings from some critics that valuations had become stretched. Nvidia shares declined 1.4%, while Broadcom fell 4.2%.Bank stocks also weakened. Wells Fargo sank 4.6% after reporting quarterly profit and revenue that missed expectations. Bank of America fell 3.8%, and Citigroup dropped 3.3%.Energy stocks provided some support to the broader market. Exxon Mobil gained 2.9%, and Chevron rose 2.1%.Investors continued to seek safe-haven assets as geopolitical uncertainties remained elevated. Gold prices slipped 0.8% on Thursday but stayed close to their previous record levels.In the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell to 4.14% from 4.18% late Tuesday, reflecting increased demand for safer assets. Bond prices move inversely to yields.In currency trading early Thursday, the US dollar strengthened to 158.63 Japanese yen from 158.46 yen. The euro weakened slightly to $1.1636 from $1.1645.



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