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NFL Week 5 buzz: Gauging Ravens panic, Titans desperation and the QB trade market

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NFL Week 5 buzz: Gauging Ravens panic, Titans desperation and the QB trade market


We’re a month into the NFL season, and insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano have been making calls to sources around the league for the latest news and buzz on key situations heading into October play.

One of the biggest storylines of the week is what’s going on with the Ravens and their 1-3 start. Jeremy and Dan have intel on the sentiments in Baltimore and how much panic the Ravens are feeling. They are also diving in on the Titans’ 0-4 start and long-term ramifications of it, along with what they’re hearing on the quarterback front as the Nov. 4 NFL trade deadline approaches.

That’s not all, as Jeremy and Dan will also be examining rookies who have earned themselves more playing time. It’s all here, as our reporters answer big questions and empty their notebooks heading into Week 5.

Jump to:
Potential Titans changes | Ravens’ panic meter
Rookies making a move | Will a QB be traded?
More notes on Week 5

What are you hearing on the Titans’ 0-4 start and potential changes they could make — now or in the offseason?

Fowler: There is moderate concern among the coaching staff that the front office and ownership might not be as patient as they originally believed, which could lead to change sooner than later. The proverbial “vibes” simply are not good right now. The front office entered the season with optimism about head coach Brian Callahan, who was a hot name on the coaching circuit in 2024. And though it wouldn’t set a win-loss goal in regard to his tenure, Titans brass wanted to see a team that’s improving. That’s hardly the case in Tennessee, where a minus-69 point differential through four games is by far the worst in the league (next closest is New Orleans at minus-55).

The overall lack of flow from week to week is only intensifying the discomfort. Callahan relinquishing playcalling duties to assistant Bo Hardegree a week ago could buy the Titans staff a little time, but firing him a week after such a change would be counterproductive. The Titans’ bye is Week 10, which feels important. But the expectation among some around the league I’ve talked to is that the temperature is increasing, especially with owner Amy Adams Strunk’s willingness to make drastic changes in recent years.

Graziano: It’s one thing to start 0-4 with a rookie quarterback, but it’s another to be as noncompetitive as the Titans have been. They had a second-half lead against the Broncos in Week 1, but things seem to have gotten progressively worse each week since. Sunday’s loss to Houston was a complete no-show, and to get shut out the week after making an offensive playcaller change doesn’t say much about their chances to fix this thing on the fly.

Callahan was Tennessee’s top choice as head coach following the 2023 season, and the franchise entered this season with the belief that he was the guy to shepherd Ward’s transition into the league. But there have been red flags, including some game management situations and some postgame news conferences in which Callahan seemed unaware of some of the rules governing replay challenges, etc. If the Titans can win a couple of games, I’m sure that will buy him time, but that’s a big if right now, and Callahan hasn’t helped himself with some of his gaffes.

I will say, from talking to people who follow these situations in the league, that there’s belief this will be a desirable job if and when it comes open. Young, promising QB, new stadium on the horizon, etc. You agree?

Fowler: Agreed. This can be a good job, Dan. Cam Ward has serious potential but needs an infusion of pass-catching talent around him. A few drafts can fix that. The offensive line hasn’t come together despite significant investments. But offensive tackle JC Latham (currently injured) and guard Peter Skoronski are players to build on. The defense has held up at times.

President of football operations Chad Brinker and general manager Mike Borgonzi come from well-established, methodical personnel trees — the Packers and Chiefs, respectively. That should lead to build-through-the-draft patience … which I once thought would help Callahan’s case, but now I’m not so sure. As you mentioned, game management issues in multiple games this season have not helped his cause. That’s such a priority for teams now.

Graziano: Yeah, that’s another thing to watch, because Borgonzi and Brinker weren’t really in their current roles when the organization hired Callahan. (Maybe Brinker was, but he didn’t have as much clearly delineated power at the time.) It’s never a comfortable feeling working for people who didn’t hire you. And your point about the offensive line is a critical one, because the offensive line coach is Callahan’s father, Bill Callahan, who’s considered one of the best to ever do that job. I believe Bill wouldn’t stick around if Brian got fired, so you’re talking about major change in critical areas. I might look foolish in a couple of weeks (or days, who knows?), but if I’m making a prediction, I lean toward the Titans giving Callahan the rest of the year before making a decision.


Rate the level of panic in the Ravens’ building on a scale of 1-10.

Graziano: I say 5, but it’s important to note that that’s a really high number in Baltimore, where there’s typically not much panic at all. This defense has had no answers for anyone but the Browns, and with Nnamdi Madubuike out for the season and a ton of other injuries (Nate Wiggins, Roquan Smith, Ar’Darius Washington, the list goes on and on) on that side of the ball, where are the answers going to come from? Add Lamar Jackson‘s hamstring injury, and now you have a potential for disaster.

If Jackson misses significant time, this season could go downhill quickly. Cooper Rush is the backup, and obviously the offense will look a lot different when he starts than it does when Jackson starts. The run game hasn’t done anything since the season opener against Buffalo. There are a lot of problems for a team that was a popular preseason Super Bowl pick.

I am guessing the panic meter about the Ravens outside the building — among fans and those of us who analyze objectively — is closer to 10 right now. But the Ravens count on the strength and steadiness of coach John Harbaugh, general manager Eric DeCosta and their internal leadership structure to solve problems and get them through tough times. You can bet they’re scouring for answers, internally and externally.

Fowler: I’ll go 6. It’s worth remembering in times like this that Jackson has a .717 career winning percentage as a starter. That’s a Tom Brady-like figure. Assuming Jackson does not miss significant time, the Ravens have a path to a backdoor playoff spot.

All three losses are to elite teams with championship hopes. It’s not like the Ravens are blowing leads to winless teams. The offense is still trying to find its rhythm with personnel groupings — when to play big people for the run game (such as two or three tight ends) vs. playing through receivers and the passing game more often. There’s enough talent on offense to make it work regardless. But this defense is galaxies away from the once-proud unit that charged Super Bowl runs. It’s currently serving as a confidence builder for struggling offenses to get right. And losing Madubuike for the year is a crushing blow. That’s a premier player on a defensive front that’s struggling to generate a pass rush.

Graziano: Like you, I also look at who their losses are against. The Bills, Lions and Chiefs are among the best teams in the league, sure, but the Ravens were supposed to be, too. And in the case of Buffalo and Kansas City, those are losses that could really come back to bite the Ravens late in the season when we’re sorting out playoff seeding and tiebreakers. At 1-3, Baltimore is probably hoping it has that problem, but assuming the Ravens come back from this and make the run we all expected, these early-season losses could put them behind the 8-ball come playoff seeding time. Sunday’s game against the Texans is another that could potentially have implications for tiebreakers and seeding if the Ravens play their way back into contention.

When I was at their training camp, I was talking to Harbaugh about the coming season and he was stressing how important it was to get off to a fast start — how they started 0-2 last season and ended up having to play a playoff game in Buffalo in January instead of playing the Bills at home. I’m sure Harbaugh is as perplexed as the rest of us are about why September went so poorly.

Fowler: The Ravens’ schedule will ease up. Only one of their next seven opponents (Rams, Week 6) has a winning record. The AFC North is winnable. But it appears they’ll have to win shootouts. On defense, the Ravens need more from pass rusher Odafe Oweh, a former first-round pick, and corner Jaire Alexander, who hasn’t played since Week 1. Otherwise, my preseason Super Bowl pick looks bleak.

Harbaugh made an unconventional defensive coordinator hire in Zach Orr, a former Ravens linebacker who quickly worked his way up the ranks, in February 2024 to replace Mike Macdonald. Orr was able to help steady a struggling Ravens defense late last season, but this is two consecutive years of suboptimal results for long stretches.


Which rookie has made a case for more playing time after a strong start?

Fowler: He’s already getting more time, but Giants running back Cam Skattebo is proving a capable option out of the backfield with Tyrone Tracy Jr. sidelined by injury. Skattebo’s recent impact has been undeniable. His ability to knife through tackles and create additional yards will be crucial for a streaky (that’s putting it nicely) New York passing offense. He averaged nearly six yards per touch thus far.

Another emerging offensive option is Seahawks receiver Tory Horton, who is making the most of his limited role. He’s averaging just under 27 snaps but has six catches on 10 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns, including an impressive over-the-shoulder grab in the end zone in Week 3. While Cooper Kupp seems entrenched as Seattle’s WR2, Horton is giving the Seahawks something to think about after producing three total touchdowns (including a 95-yard kickoff return). Looks like GM John Schneider got a fifth-round gem.

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Eric Karabell: Acquire Cam Skattebo if you can

Eric Karabell explains why Cam Skattebo is a definite top-20 fantasy running back for the rest of the season.

Graziano: Woody Marks looks like a more exciting running back than Nick Chubb in Houston, where the Texans are looking for any answer they can find on offense. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Marks get a little more run. Chiefs rookie running back Brashard Smith has seen more involvement in the offense in recent weeks and I’m told to expect that to continue.

And my guy Harold Fannin Jr., who we pointed out in Week 1 as a rookie to watch, has worked his way into the pass catcher rotation in Cleveland even with David Njoku ahead of him on the Browns’ tight end depth chart. The Browns love using Fannin in a lot of different roles, and I think that usage will only expand.

Fowler: Cleveland is really excited about Fannin’s future — and that of running back Quinshon Judkins and wide receiver Isaiah Bond. On defense, Carolina edge rusher Nic Scourton has made a quick impression. The Panthers wanted to utilize more young players on defense after a sluggish start, and Scourton, a second-round pick in April, has played 100 snaps over the past two weeks, producing a pass deflection and several quarterback pressures. He has a high motor, plays with power and has a nifty spin move in his arsenal. The youth movement is on for Carolina, which is also giving third-round edge rusher Princely Umanmielen extended snaps.

Graziano: Edge rusher Ashton Gillotte is a player who really excites the Chiefs. He got his hand on a field goal attempt in the Week 3 victory over the Giants and has seen his snap count rise each week as the team continues to trust him more. I would not be surprised to see Kansas City continue to use Gillotte more as the season goes on as they rely more and more on their defense while the offense gets its act together.


True or false: A quarterback will be traded before the deadline.

Graziano: True. Now, it could be someone such as Carson Wentz or Kenny Pickett, which wouldn’t exactly make headlines, but I think you’re asking if it could be someone such as Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson or one of the Cleveland rookies. Anything’s possible. It doesn’t feel like Wilson has a real role in New York, where rookie Jaxson Dart is now the starter and Jameis Winston is signed through 2026 to be his backup. Wilson’s trade value is also likely very low right now, so the Giants might wait until someone gets desperate to ship him out.

Cousins’ situation in Atlanta, as the veteran backup behind Michael Penix Jr., is one we’ve frequently discussed. He could get dealt, but Atlanta is not desperate to deal him and is still asking for a relatively high price. The Falcons believe he has value as a reliable backup in case something should happen to Penix. And having been on the sideline for Sunday’s game against Washington, I can tell you Cousins is one of the prominent voices in Penix’s ear between possessions. He’s been helpful in Penix’s development and, along with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and quarterbacks coach D.J. Williams, is a helpful extra set of eyes and ears that benefits Penix.

Fowler: Man, Pickett getting dealt for the third time in a calendar year would be tough on his real estate portfolio. Do I believe a quarterback will be traded? Yes, so my answer is true. A quarterback with a marquee name, I’m not so sure. Wilson would be the most sensible candidate. Cleveland had some level of interest in Wilson before he signed with the Giants, and his $2 million base salary makes him very tradeable.

But it’s uncertain where Cleveland will be from a roster-building standpoint three to four weeks from now. If the Browns want to stash Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders for a few months longer, then Wilson would be a low-cost play. And Cleveland explored the Cousins situation before ultimately signing Joe Flacco, trading for Pickett and drafting two passers. But here’s to guessing Gabriel will be on the field by the end of October, at which point the Browns will want to see what they have in the third-rounder.

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Rex Ryan wants Shedeur to start for the Browns

Rex Ryan questions why the Browns have not started Shedeur Sanders at quarterback.

Outside of that, there’s not a clear-cut need for teams, barring injury. One intriguing option is Anthony Richardson Sr., who is stuck behind Daniel Jones in Indianapolis. My sense is Richardson would be open to joining a premier playcaller such as Sean McVay as a developmental player so he can reset for 2026.

Graziano: Richardson is an interesting one. I remember a couple of teams wondering if Indy would be open to moving him during free agency. So far, they’ve insisted they aren’t, but you’re right. If Jones keeps playing well and leads them to their first division title in more than a decade, who’s to say the Colts don’t decide he’s their future at quarterback and sign him to an extension?

In general, acquiring a starting QB at the trade deadline is tough, because in most cases it’s a guy who must learn a new offense on the fly. By the time he’s up to speed, it could be too late for him to save the season. That’s why someone like Richardson, whom teams might view for development in the long term, makes more sense. But there are situations that come up where a team with high hopes finds itself with a sudden need and might be willing to take the risks involved with bringing in someone from outside its system, right?

Fowler: That question reminds me that quarterback needs can change in a hurry — especially after what the Bengals just showed Monday night. Got to wonder if Cincinnati evaluates quarterback options if the downward spiral deepens. After Monday night’s lifeless outing, Cincinnati now has gained fewer than 200 offensive yards in three of its first four games. The last team to do that was the 2009 Raiders, who rolled out a combination of JaMarcus Russell, Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye at quarterback.

The Bengals still believe in Jake Browning, who was far from the only culprit in Denver on Monday, but Cincinnati has too much skill position talent to accept the status quo. At some point, it could need reinforcements at the game’s most important position. It might be worth calling up recently retired Derek Carr to check on how his shoulder injury is healing.



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Fixing what’s wrong with Liverpool, Barcelona, Juventus, more

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Fixing what’s wrong with Liverpool, Barcelona, Juventus, more


Everybody has an opinion, especially when it comes to Liverpool. The defending Premier League champions have lost five of six in league play to fall to eighth in the table, and they’ve lost seven of 10 in all competitions.

Mohamed Salah is suddenly looking his age, expensive signing Florian Wirtz isn’t producing and expensive signing Alexander Isak has struggled with both fitness and finishing, the Premier League might be evolving more quickly than manager Arne Slot, the customary players-only meeting didn’t seem to accomplish much, and there are plenty of signs that players are still grieving and struggling with the summer death of teammate Diogo Jota.

It almost seems like regression is inevitable at times. Manchester City collapsed for most of the winter last season after winning the league in 2023-24, and following Liverpool’s best seasons under Jurgen Klopp, they had plenty of bumpy patches: two wins in seven, one in seven and two in eight in 2020-21 (after winning the Premier League) and one win in seven and zero in five in 2022-23 (after nearly winning the Treble). But with struggle comes a chorus of famous former players. It’s “crisis time,” per Roy Keane. It’s “crisis mode,” per Jamie Carragher. They don’t have leadership, per Wayne Rooney. The toxicity of the situation can become all-consuming. Everything is bad, nothing is working, nothing is salvageable.

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Here’s where stats can offer some clarity. What’s actually going wrong — or at least, most wrong — at Anfield? What do Slot and Liverpool need to most urgently address to steer out of the skid? And while we’re here, what do stats say about some of Europe’s other struggling squads?

Let’s find out.


Liverpool logoLiverpool

Current Premier League standing: eighth (1.64 points per game, down from 2.21 last season)

Biggest statistical weakness: defense. It’s always been about the defense. To be sure, the attack has regressed despite Liverpool spending hundreds of millions of pounds on some of the brightest attacking talent in the world. They were comfortably first in goals scored and xG created last season, and now they’re sixth in both categories. But they’re ninth in xG allowed (13.9) and 12th in actual goals allowed (17), and that’s what most needs addressing.

From a pressure standpoint, Liverpool are hitting the same notes as last season. They rank sixth in the league in passes allowed per defensive action, second in combined progressive passes and progressive carries allowed and third in high turnovers forced; last year they were fourth, third and sixth, respectively. But they’re bombing in two categories: transition defense and set pieces. They were fourth in xG allowed from counterattacks last season, and they’re currently 17th, allowing 87% more per match.

Perhaps predictably, they’ve fallen from third to eighth in xG allowed per shot. Meanwhile, after allowing just nine goals from set pieces last season (eighth in the league), they’ve already allowed a shocking seven this season (18th), including three from long throws.

Combine that with a downturn in goalkeeper performance. In terms of goals prevented* they’ve gone from +0.10 per match from Alisson and Caoimhín Kelleher last season to -0.26 per match from Alisson and Giorgi Mamardashvili this season — and you get a pretty clear picture. Liverpool have allowed at least two goals in seven of 11 league matches, and while they won the first two such matches with late heroics, they’ve lost the past five.

When they allow one or fewer goals, they’re a perfect 4-for-4 in the wins department. But they’ve managed to do so only four times.

(*Goals prevented is a StatsPerform measure that compares the postshot xG value of your opponents’ shots on target to the number of actual goals you allow.)

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Nicol: Arne Slot should bench Mohamed Salah

Steve Nicol explains why he thinks Liverpool’s Arne Slot should bench Mohamed Salah.

Critiques about the attack have always been correct to some degree. Salah has only four goals (three, minus one penalty) and two assists in 11 league matches when, at the same time last season, he had eight and six, respectively. Meanwhile, both Isak and Wirtz have been cursed by the xG gods. Wirtz has attempted shots worth 1.3 expected goals and completed passes worth 1.2 expected assists but has zero actual goals or assists, while Isak, managing only 253 league minutes thus far, has attempted shots worth 0.9 xG with no goals.

That part will change. But Liverpool’s defense is more of a structural problem.


Current LaLiga standing: second (2.33 points per game, up from 2.32)

Biggest statistical weakness: continuity. Of the nine teams in this piece, eight have regressed in terms of domestic points per play. Barcelona are actually doing just fine in that regard — they’re on the same pace as last season, when they won LaLiga. Their Champions League form has been dented by a loss to Paris Saint-Germain and a wild 3-3 draw at Club Brugge, but their main problem domestically has been the fact that Real Madrid appear to have improved quite a bit: After netting 84 points last season, Barca’s hated rivals are on pace for 98. That will certainly dampen the vibes.

You know what else will? Injuries.

Lamine Yamal (second in last year’s Ballon d’Or voting) played 83.7% of Barca’s LaLiga minutes last season and is at 58.6% in 2025-26. Raphinha (fifth), meanwhile, has gone from 83.2% to 35.6%, and Robert Lewandowski (17th) has gone from 78.4% to 41.6%. These three were unreal last season, combining for 89 goals and 44 assists in all competitions. About one-third of the way through 2025-26, they’re at 16 and seven, respectively. Players like Fermín López (six goals and four assists), Ferran Torres (seven and one) and loanee Marcus Rashford (six and seven) have held things down, but Barca’s attack has gone from otherworldly to merely very good.

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Yamal situation ‘playground stuff’ from Barcelona and Spanish FA

Julien Lauren believes the Lamine Yamal situation could be “easily figured out” if both Barcelona and the Spanish FA “speak to each other” to sort it out.

In a roundabout way, maybe this is encouraging. Barca are hitting similar notes as last season despite a total lack of continuity up front. For that matter, they’ve gotten fewer minutes from injury-prone midfielders Pedri and Gavi as well, and after seven players played at least 70% of league minutes last season, they’re at only five so far this year.

Of course, Real Madrid have suffered their own injury issues and are still setting a higher bar; Barca aren’t keeping up. And while domestic opponents haven’t been able to adjust particularly well to Hansi Flick’s high defensive line in their second year of exposure to it, it has been an issue in the Champions League, where they’re 30th out of 36 teams in xG allowed per shot, 22nd in xG allowed from counterattacks and 18th in goals allowed.

Still, getting and keeping the right personnel on the pitch would help immensely. Unfortunately, that’s something over which you don’t have a ton of control.


Current Premier League standing: 14th (1.09 points per game, down from 1.74)

Biggest statistical weakness: goals. A pretty important stat. Newcastle play a more direct style than most of England‘s richest clubs, and it has generally served them pretty well. If done well, you won’t attempt as many shots as your possession-hungry peers, but you’ll attempt as many or more good shots. Newcastle averaged 2.4 shots per game worth at least 0.2 xG; only Liverpool averaged more. They attempted 26.9% of their shots with fewer than two defenders between the ball and goal, lowest in the league.

This season, following a well-publicized and stretched-out divorce with Isak, they added forwards Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa before the transfer deadline. Woltemade has had some bright, creative moments, scoring six goals in all competitions (far more than Isak, if nothing else). But he’s averaging 1.6 shots per 90 minutes in all competitions — dreadfully low for a center forward — and Wissa has yet to play because of injury. Consequently, despite solid work from left-sided attackers Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes (eight goals and three assists in all comps), Newcastle’s attack has disappeared.

When your attacking numbers are far closer to West Ham’s than Arsenal‘s, something has gone awry. Newcastle have scored just 11 goals in league play (17th), and while they’ve probably been privy to some bad finishing luck, they’re just 12th in xG created, too. They’re averaging just 1.5 shots per game worth at least 0.2 xG (10th), and only 20% of their shots have been attempted with fewer than two defenders in the way (10th). Despite their attempted directness, they’re allowing more counterattacking opportunities than they’re creating.

Injuries are playing a role here — only four players have seen the pitch for more than 71% of Newcastle’s league minutes, and 21 have started at least once. But injuries are playing a role for lots of teams, and Newcastle are currently far closer to the relegation zone (two points above) than they are to a spot in the top five (six points behind).

Unless the attack peps up a bit, making up ground will be awfully difficult.


Current Serie A standing: sixth (1.73 points per game, down from 1.84)

Biggest statistical weakness: shot quality. Like plenty of fired managers, Igor Tudor was done in at least a bit by some bad bounces. In his last four matches in charge at Juventus, against a solid run of opponents (AC Milan, Como, Real Madrid and Lazio), his charges allowed just four goals. But they scored zero despite creating shots worth 4.4 xG. While they probably deserved four or five points from those matches, they managed only a 0-0 draw with Milan.

In their first four matches without Tudor — one with interim Massimo Brambilla, three with new hire Luciano Spalletti — both the schedule and the xG gods eased up. Against Udinese, Cremonese, Sporting CP and Torino, Juve scored six goals and managed two wins and two draws. But they still suffered from poor finishing — those six goals came from shots worth 7.9 xG — and their shot quality still lacked a bit. For the season they rank just 16th in Serie A in xG per shot (0.12).

Forwards Dusan Vlahovic, Jonathan David and Loïs Openda, who are paid millions of euros to put the ball in the net, are attempting just 3.5 shots per 90 minutes between them, and even worse, they’re averaging just 0.11 xG per shot. Juve’s creative players — mainly Kenan Yildiz and Andrea Cambiaso — have not been able to get them involved, and with just four goals from their 5.7 combined xG, they haven’t finished the opportunities they’ve gotten either.

Juve are in decent shape overall: Thanks primarily to wins over lower-rung opponents, they’re only three points outside Serie A’s top four. The early signs under Spalletti have been encouraging, but until their scorers both earn and finish better scoring opportunities, climbing the table will be difficult.


Current LaLiga standing: eighth (1.42 points per game, down from 1.84)

Biggest statistical weakness: defensive regression to the mean. They play a reliable style of ball in Bilbao: Defend first, defend second, defend third, and maybe score a goal on the counter at some point. They haven’t allowed more than 50 goals in a LaLiga season since 2012-13, and they’ve allowed under 40 in four of the last six years.

Last season, however, they were a little too good in this regard. Giving up just 29 goals in 38 matches allowed them to finish fourth and earn their first Champions League bid in 11 seasons. But these 0.76 goals per match (first in the league) came from an average of 1.01 xG (second); even by the standards of Athletic and goalkeeper Unai Simón, that’s too much of a disparity. And sure enough, the xG gods have come for what they’re owed this year. They’re allowing lower overall shot quality — 0.85 xG per match (first) — but opponents are turning that into 1.1 goals (fifth).

The attack, meanwhile, has been beset by injuries. Primary attackers Iñaki Williams (only 62.7% of minutes this season), Nico Williams (49.7%) and Oihan Sancet (39.5%) aren’t seeing much of the pitch, and Athletic have scored just four open-play goals in 12 league matches. They’re seventh in the league, already eight points off the top-four pace, and Champions League play hasn’t gone any better. They beat Qarabag but have lost three other matches by a combined 8-1.

Randomness isn’t fixable, unfortunately, and if they continue defending well, their league form should stabilize. But a return to the Champions League next season is looking unlikely.


Current Serie A standing: 13th (1.18 points per game, down from 1.95)

Biggest statistical weakness: absolute offensive stagnation. Replacing Roma-bound Gian Piero Gasperini was always going to be a tall task. With his swashbuckling attacking identity, his Atalanta teams overachieved against their spending numbers for many times in recent seasons, and manager Ivan Juric came into the job with a high bar to clear. That Atalanta have lost only three of their 15 matches in all competitions certainly suggests things could be going worse, but settling for an incredible eight draws in that span held them back, and two of those three losses came in the first nine days of November. On the 10th day, Juric was fired.

Juric’s Atalanta matched Gasperini’s shot volume — they were fifth in Serie A in shots per possession last season, and they’re fifth again this year — but the good shots have vanished. They’ve fallen from third to 12th in xG per shot. Lower shot quality can produce streakiness, and in their past eight matches in all competitions they’ve managed just four goals from shots worth 11.2 xG. Take Lazar Samardzic‘s two goals out of the equation, and everyone else has two goals from 10.6 xG.

That is, of course, unsustainably terrible, and new hire Raffaele Palladino, most recently of Fiorentina, will likely enjoy a new-manager bump simply thanks to progression toward the mean. But as with Juve, shot quality desperately needs to improve, and unlike Juve, they’re now nine points off the top-four pace.


Current Premier League standing: 19th (0.82 points per game, down from 1.71)

Biggest statistical weakness: set pieces and no margin for error. Looking at full-season stats for a team that has already careened from a successful counterattacking manager (Nuno Espirito Santo) to a possession-and-pressing guy (Ange Postecoglou) back to a counterattacker (Sean Dyche) is probably a fool’s errand, and it’s probably not surprising to learn that looking at Forest’s full-season numbers offer us almost no hint of style or quality.

That said, set pieces have been a rampant problem this season, and they haven’t improved so far in Dyche’s short tenure. They were a life hack for Forest’s rousing seventh-place finish (and Champions League near-qualification) last season — they scored 17 set-piece goals (first) and produced a +8 scoring margin from them (third). This season, they’ve scored just two set piece goals (17th) and allowed nine (20th) for a minus-7 margin (also 20th).

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Dyche frustrated at lack of VAR intervention vs. Man United

Sean Dyche reacts to Nottingham Forest’s 2-2 draw vs. Manchester United in the Premier League.

In Dyche’s three league matches, they’re one of only seven teams to score zero times, and they’ve allowed three, including both goals in a 2-2 draw with Manchester United. The simple fact that they’ve earned four points and scored five goals suggests solid improvement under Dyche, but this aspect is still dragging them down, and they still have the second-fewest points in the league — behind even Nuno’s new team, a previously hapless West Ham.


Current Bundesliga standing: 17th (0.50 points per game, down from 1.53)

Biggest statistical weakness: a total lack of shot attempts. With the endlessly enthusiastic Bo Henriksen in charge, Mainz were the Bundesliga’s Nottingham Forest, positioned for a shocking Champions League berth last season until fading late. Like Athletic Club, they got as far as they did in part due to good fortune on defense — they were 10th in xG allowed (1.46 per game) but third in goals allowed (1.26) — and that allowed them to get by with an attack that was slightly above average at best. The defense has regressed a little (1.59 xG allowed), but the fortune has completely vanished (1.80 goals allowed).

You can get by in the Bundesliga with a mediocre defense, but it certainly exposes your attack. Without Eintracht Frankfurt-bound Jonathan Burkardt (18 goals from shots worth 14.8 xG last season), and with predictable regression to the mean from Paul Nebel (10 goals from 5.8 xG last year, one from 1.4 this year), Mainz are creating almost nothing on the attacking end. They are last in the league in shots per possession (0.08), and despite playing a pretty direct style, they’ve attempted only 14.5% of their shots with fewer than two defenders between the ball and goal (second worst).

Granted, this isn’t incredibly different from last season, when they ranked 17th in shots per possession. But now neither the defense nor Nebel is overachieving.

With an xG differential that ranks 11th in the league, they’re likely to eventually move up the table moving forward. Despite sharing the lowest point total in the league with Heidenheim, current Opta projections give them only a 13% chance of finishing in an automatic relegation spot. But good fortune covered up some weaknesses last year, and that fortune is well gone.


Fiorentina logoFiorentina

Current Serie A standing: 20th (0.45 points per game, down from 1.71)

Biggest statistical weakness: finishing (and set pieces). Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. A team that seemingly overachieved in the table last season isn’t getting the same breaks this time around.

Fiorentina finished sixth in Serie A in 2024-25, their best league campaign in nine years, but they did it with an unsustainably brilliant run of finishing: They scored 60 goals from shots worth only 49.7 xG, a 21% overachievement. Important creatives like left back Robin Gosens and midfielders Yacine Adli and Rolando Mandragora got in on the goal-scoring act a little too well, scoring 13 goals from shots worth 5.5 xG.

This season, with Adli off to Al Shabab, Mandragora and Gosens have scored a much more normal three goals from 2.7 xG, but the team’s overall finishing has vanished. Fiorentina have generated 15.5 xG (fifth) — they’re first in the league in xG per shot! — but have scored just nine goals (14th), a 42% underachievement. Star center forward Moise Kean is enduring an incredible slump, with two goals from shots worth 5.7 xG, and Fiorentina have endured a pair of 0-0 draws, a 1-1 draw, a 1-0 loss and three 2-1 losses. In one of those draws, against Torino, Kean somehow missed a tap-in header worth 0.98 xG.

Like Forest, Fiorentina have also collapsed in the set pieces department: They allowed seven set piece goals last season and have already matched that in 2025-26. Their underlying numbers are solid enough that they probably aren’t a genuine threat for relegation — Opta puts their odds at only 15% — but worse fortune, worse finishing and worse set piece defense have all but relegated them from a shot at another European competition next season.



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Caps return to Montreal, hoping to recapture vibes of their last visit

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Washington’s previous trip to Bell Centre was marked by a big hit from Tom Wilson that turned the tide of their first-round playoff series.



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Your guide to women’s college basketball Feast Week: 36 games to watch over the next 10 days

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Your guide to women’s college basketball Feast Week: 36 games to watch over the next 10 days


Las Vegas has already hosted some important and exciting early-season games, but nothing tops next week’s Players Era Women’s Championship, a chance for players to earn NIL money and for teams to separate themselves from the other elite squads in the country.

Four of the nation’s best — Duke, South Carolina, Texas and UCLA — meet up at Michelob ULTRA Arena, the home of the WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces, on Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day to compete in a Final Four-caliber event.

That’s the highlight of the holiday week tournaments and games — but far from the only intriguing action across the globe over the next 10 days. Games from Puerto Rico to Cancun and from Florida to Texas help create one of the best stretches on the basketball calendar this season.

Many of these games will have far-reaching implications into March and could be the difference between being in or out of the NCAA tournament field.

It’s a crowded sports calendar this time of year, but this is your guide to the best games and how to watch them. Come back after the final whistle to see how each game ended and for analysis on how it might impact March.

All times Eastern

Thursday


Baylor vs. Iowa

9 p.m., ESPN2, WBCA Showcase (Orlando, Florida)

A full week before Thanksgiving, the WBCA Showcase at the The ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex at Walt Disney World Resort gets the holiday hoops feast started with a Top 25 matchup. The No. 7 Bears already have a pair of good wins on their résumé, making this a bigger game for the No. 19 Hawkeyes, who are looking for their first. Both teams are 4-0; one of their perfect seasons will end Thursday.

Friday


Michigan vs. UConn

8 p.m., Fox, Hall of Fame Showcase (Uncasville, Connecticut)

Syracuse and Utah tip off the event (5 p.m., FS2), but this is the marquee game of the two days at Mohegan Sun — and it got even bigger after Michigan’s 39-point win over Notre Dame on Saturday.

Saturday


Miami vs. Iowa

8 p.m., ESPN+, WBCA Showcase

The Hawkeyes get two notable games in Orlando. A Hurricanes team with 12 new players gets its first true test.

Sunday


Utah vs. UConn

2:30 p.m., FS1, Hall of Fame Showcase

The Utes are another potential bubble team that needs a boost. Winning is not essential here, but a good performance against the No. 1 team in the country will be enough to help.


Washington State vs. Missouri

3 p.m., ESPN+, WBCA Showcase

The WBCA Showcase wraps up with this single game on Sunday. The Tigers need to string together some wins after falling to Kansas over the weekend if they want to remain in bubble contention before SEC play begins.

Monday


Belmont vs. Ohio State

11 a.m., FloHoops, Baha Mar Hoops Pink Flamingo, Goombay Division (Nassau, Bahamas)

The Buckeyes weren’t able to hang with UConn on Sunday, making this game that much more important. Ohio State’s Jaloni Cambridge against Belmont’s deep and experienced backcourt is the matchup to watch.


Minnesota vs. South Florida

4 p.m., FloHoops, Baha Mar Hoops Pink Flamingo, Junkanoo Division

If the Bulls want to be in the running for an at-large bid, this is the kind of game they need to win. Minnesota has many more opportunities for résumé wins in the Big Ten, but a good showing in the Bahamas sets up the Gophers nicely.

Tuesday


Emerald Coast Classic, Bay Bracket championship game

1:30 p.m., FloHoops (Destin, Florida)

Mississippi State and Middle Tennessee will be favored to get here. Winning both games is especially important to the Bulldogs, who have gotten off to a good start but need to build up the win total with the SEC gauntlet awaiting.


Oregon vs. Saint Mary’s

2:30 p.m., FloHoops, Hoopfest Women’s Basketball Classic (Frisco, Texas)

The Gaels and the Ducks have gotten off to good starts against the softer parts of their schedules, so this Thanksgiving trip provides some key tests. Oregon can’t afford a stumble because December brings games against Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford and Michigan.


Texas A&M vs. Colorado

7 p.m., BallerTV, Hawaii North Shore Showcase (Laie, Hawaii)

Ny’Ceara Pryor, who dominated for three years at Sacred Heart, has made her way to a Power 4 school with the Aggies. She’s filling the stat sheet, leading the team in points, assists and steals.


Emerald Coast Classic, Beach Bracket championship game

7:30 p.m., FloHoops (Destin, Florida)

Virginia and Nebraska are the favorites to meet for the Beach Bracket title. A backcourt meeting of the Cavaliers’ Kymora Johnson, one of the underrated players in the country, against the Huskers’ Britt Prince is worth tuning in to see.

Wednesday


Baha Mar Hoops Pink Flamingo, Goombay Division championship game

1:30 p.m., FloHoops (Nassau, Bahamas)

West Virginia will likely get the Belmont-Ohio State winner. After beating Duke with just five players in the second half last week, the Mountaineers are getting much more attention.


Texas vs. UCLA

2 p.m., truTV, Players Era Championship (Las Vegas)

This is the event of the week — and possibly the event of the season prior to March. The Bruins have already had a difficult nonconference schedule with wins over Oklahoma and North Carolina, but nothing on their schedule matches the quality of the Longhorns.


Baha Mar Hoops Pink Flamingo, Junkanoo Division championship game

4 or 6:30 p.m., FloHoops (Nassau, Bahamas)

If Alabama survives Harvard on Monday, the Crimson Tide will have a game against either South Florida or Minnesota that could have significant bubble implications in March.


Duke vs. South Carolina

4:30 p.m., truTV, Players Era Championship (Las Vegas)

As we were saying, nothing on UCLA’s schedule matches the quality of the Longhorns … unless the Bruins end up meeting the Gamecocks in the Players Era final on Thursday. Duke, meanwhile, has gotten off to a slow start and needs some redemption after losses to Baylor and West Virginia. This is that opportunity.


Maryland vs. Kentucky

6:30 p.m., FloHoops, Puerto Rico Shootout (Carolina, Puerto Rico)

Easily the best game of the Puerto Rico Shootout, the Terps and Wildcats meet in the final game of Day 1. Both programs are having success on the fly after major personnel changes in the offseason. Kentucky will play Louisville right before heading south, and Maryland has already beaten Princeton, but this will be the biggest test for either team thus far.


Cal vs. Auburn

7:30 p.m., FloHoops, Hoopfest Women’s Basketball Classic (Frisco, Texas)

These are two teams on the periphery of the bubble — and they’ll only stay there with a pair of wins in Texas. Auburn plays UTSA and Cal meets Grand Canyon two days earlier.

Thursday, Nov. 27


South Dakota State vs. North Carolina

11 a.m., FloHoops, Cancun Challenge (Cancun, Mexico)

After the Players Era Championship, this is the next-best event of Thanksgiving week. The Jackrabbits and Tar Heels lead off a great first day. South Dakota State’s Brooklyn Meyer is off to a great start and ranks among the national leaders in scoring. North Carolina’s success starts with defense. The winner of that matchup likely wins the game.


NC State vs. Green Bay

4 p.m. ET, FloHoops, Cancun Challenge (Cancun, Mexico)

The Wolfpack and Phoenix represent a contrast in styles. NC State wants to run. Green Bay likes to control the pace. This is a dangerous game for the Wolfpack, who can’t afford any more nonconference losses if they want a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament.


Players Era championship game

8 p.m. ET, truTV (Las Vegas)

No matter how this shakes out and what the matchup is in this game, a clear No. 2 team in the country will emerge from this first-of-its-kind women’s event.


Richmond vs. TCU

9 p.m., FloHoops, Cancun Challenge (Cancun, Mexico)

Coming off the most successful season in program history, and with All-American candidate Maggie Doogan back, the expectations are high for Richmond. Four games removed from a 29-point loss at Texas on Nov. 7, this represents a chance to check the Spiders’ progress. The pieces have come together quickly for the Horned Frogs, who should be unbeaten heading into Big 12 play with a win over the Spiders.


Oregon State vs. Vanderbilt

9 p.m., ESPN+, Paradise Jam (U.S. Virgin Islands)

Coach Scott Rueck always seems to find a way at Oregon State — and how he defends Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blakes will be another test. After the Beavers’ win over Illinois, they are back in the NCAA tournament hunt.

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Mikayla Blakes eases in long jumper for Vandy

Mikayla Blakes eases in long jumper for Vandy


Players Era consolation game

10:30 p.m., truTV (Las Vegas)

Despite the quality of the opponents at the Players Era Championship, two losses in Las Vegas would be devastating to No. 1 seed aspirations — or possibly even No. 2 seed prospects given how many more challenges in and out of conference await the Blue Devils, Bruins, Gamecocks and Longhorns.

Friday, Nov. 28


Iowa State vs. Marquette

11 a.m., FloHoops, Coconut Hoops (Fort Myers, Florida)

The Cyclones won’t have been challenged until this trip to Florida. Marquette was dominated by Minnesota two weeks ago and should approach this game with some desperation if the NCAA tournament is part of the Golden Eagles’ future.

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Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Milwaukee Panthers: Game Highlights

Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Milwaukee Panthers: Game Highlights


Indiana vs. Gonzaga

1 :30 p.m., FloHoops, Coconut Hoops

Allie Turner of Gonzaga and Indiana’s Shay Ciezki are two of the best small guards in the country. Ciezki is off to a fast start and is one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation.


Kansas vs. Georgia

7:30 p.m., ION, Fort Myers Classic (Fort Myers, Florida)

Neither team was on the NCAA tournament radar until a combined 9-0 start to the season. This could be the game that proves whether postseason hopes are realistic.

Saturday, Nov. 29


Oklahoma State vs. Miami

11 a.m., FloHoops, Cayman Islands Classic (Grand Town, Cayman Islands)

Expect plenty of points to be scored in this one. The Cowgirls hit the 100-point mark four times in their first five games.


South Dakota State vs. Kansas State

11 a.m., FloHoops, Cancun Challenge

Spin the wheel again in Cancun and more good matchups emerge. The Wildcats have eight players averaging at or around seven points per game. That kind of balance will help against a SDSU defense that is consistently good, especially in the half court, under coach Aaron Johnston.


Paradise Jam, Island Division championship game

1 p.m. or 3:30 p.m., ESPN+ (U.S. Virgin Islands)

The Vanderbilt-Oregon State winner will meet either BYU or Virginia Tech. Regardless of the matchup, this game will have meaning. If the Beavers come out of the Paradise Jam with two wins, they are not only the clear WCC favorite but also in a position to earn an at-large bid. The Hokies won’t likely threaten for the top of the ACC, but their at-large chances increase significantly with a championship here.


North Carolina vs. Columbia

1:30 p.m., FloHoops, Cancun Challenge

The Lions’ Riley Weiss scored 24 points in an NCAA tournament win over Washington last season. If you missed that, here is another chance to watch Weiss, who is having an even better junior season.


George Mason vs. Ole Miss

3 p.m., BallerTV, Daytona Beach Classic (Daytona, Florida)

If the Atlantic 10 is going to get multiple bids to the NCAA tournament like it did a year ago, George Mason is the key. A game at Maryland right before this trip to Florida and this matchup with Ole Miss gives the Patriots their two biggest opportunities for a foundational résumé win.


Georgia Tech vs. Florida

5 p.m. ET, FloHoops, Cayman Islands Classic (Grand Town, Cayman Islands)

In the four games with sophomore Liv McGill, the Gators have scored at least 87 points. In the game she missed with a leg injury, they scored 54. If she’s on the floor, Florida is a must-watch.


Paradise Jam, Reef Division championship game

8:30 p.m., ESPN+ (U.S. Virgin Islands)

LSU and Washington State is the likely matchup here. The Tigers’ nonconference schedule once again doesn’t provide many challenges, and the Cougars are struggling this season. But this might be a chance to see MiLaysia Fulwiley in her new surroundings. She’s leading LSU in scoring despite still coming off the bench.

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1:19

LSU Tigers vs. Tulane Green Wave: Game Highlights

LSU Tigers vs. Tulane Green Wave: Game Highlights

Sunday, Nov. 30


Coconut Hoops, Blue Heron Division championship game

11 a.m. or 1:30 p.m., FloHoops (Fort Myers, Florida)

An IndianaIowa State meeting seems most likely here, and the Hoosiers have some size to throw at Cyclones star Audi Crooks, who already has a 43-point game this season.


Coconut Hoops, Great Egret Division championship game

4 or 6:30 p.m., FloHoops (Fort Myers, Florida)

With their fast pace, ability to shoot and the addition of freshman Aaliyah Chavez, Oklahoma is fun to watch. The Sooners meeting Florida State here is the likely matchup in one of the final games of the weekend.


Baha Mar Hoops Pink Flamingo, Junkanoo Division championship game

6:30 p.m., FloHoops (Nassau, Bahamas)

Michigan State and Clemson will be the big favorites to meet in this one. The Tigers’ early losses were to South Carolina and Louisville, but they played well for long stretches in both. The Spartans opened the season by scoring at least 92 points in four straight games, sparked by Grace VanSlooten and the best assist totals in the country.



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