Business
‘No boom-bust’: a dangerous economic cycle | The Express Tribune
External pressures are rising without growth dividend that once cushioned past busts
KARACHI:
Pakistan’s economy has long followed a familiar rhythm of boom and bust. Each cycle begins with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) stabilisation phase that focuses on fiscal tightening, inflation control, and temporary improvement in external balances. When stability returns, political leadership typically shifts toward growth, relying on domestic demand, cheap credit, and rising imports.
This expansion inevitably inflates the current account deficit (CAD), depletes reserves, and ends in another downturn. For decades, the pattern has repeated with almost mechanical predictability.
Today, however, Pakistan faces an even more unsettling variant of this cycle — one defined by rising external pressures without any real boom. The country is once again recording current account deterioration, but growth remains weak and uneven. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) recently estimated GDP growth for FY2025 at around 3.0%, yet this modest figure conceals stagnation in productive sectors and minimal job creation.
In essence, the deficit is widening not because of dynamic expansion, but because even minor import recovery is unmatched by export earnings. This imbalance — where economic pain persists without a growth dividend — marks a new, more fragile phase of stagnation.
Monetary easing has failed to spark revival. Although interest rates have been trimmed from record highs, private sector borrowing remains subdued. Commercial banks prefer risk-free lending to the government, leaving businesses starved of credit. Households, exhausted by years of inflation, lack purchasing power. Energy costs remain unpredictable, while political uncertainty discourages long-term investment. The result is an economy caught in paralysis: liquidity exists, but confidence and capacity are absent.
Underlying this stagnation is a chronic erosion of export competitiveness. In the 1990s, exports made up around 16% of GDP; by 2024, the figure had fallen to just 10%. Pakistan no longer earns enough foreign exchange to finance essential imports, leaving it vulnerable to external shocks and supply disruptions. Weak exports also translate into fewer industrial jobs and limited value addition, compounding social distress.
The World Bank’s latest “Pakistan Development Update” (April 2025) concludes that Pakistan’s growth model is unsustainable, noting that it “inflates import bills without expanding productive capacity” and fails to deliver inclusive benefits. The Bank cautions that while macroeconomic stabilisation has been achieved, “turning it into sustained and inclusive growth” requires deep structural reforms. This diagnosis aligns with the broader reality: Pakistan’s economy remains heavily consumption-driven and dependent on remittances, not on exports or productivity gains.
Excessive import dependence further worsens vulnerability. The economy relies on external supplies for food, fuel, and industrial inputs. The global energy price surge of 2022 — following the Ukraine conflict — exposed this weakness brutally, triggering inflation, a currency crisis, and fiscal strain. With minimal domestic buffers, even moderate global shocks can destabilise the entire economic framework.
Meanwhile, the state’s persistent fiscal weakness magnifies external fragility. Pakistan’s narrow tax base and poor compliance prevent adequate revenue generation, forcing the government to borrow domestically and abroad. These loans increasingly serve to service old debts rather than fund productive investments. As public debt mounts, fiscal space for development shrinks, and the economy drifts further into dependency on IMF lifelines. Each bailout defers crisis but deepens structural fragility, entrenching a cycle of temporary relief followed by renewed distress.
Investment – both domestic and foreign – remains chronically low. Pakistan’s investment-to-GDP ratio continues to trail behind regional peers, reflecting limited industrial capacity, policy inconsistency, and weak infrastructure. Even when credit is available, firms hesitate to expand amid political volatility and unpredictable regulation. Without capital formation, productivity stagnates, and exports remain uncompetitive.
The recent exodus of multinational companies (MNCs) illustrates this erosion of investor confidence. Several established global firms have either downsized or exited Pakistan altogether, citing supply-chain disruptions, currency volatility, and an unpredictable business environment. These departures — from consumer goods to energy sectors — are symptomatic of a deeper malaise. When experienced foreign investors see no future growth prospects, it signals that the local business climate has turned untenable. Beyond lost capital, such exits diminish technology transfer, managerial expertise, and export linkages, weakening the very foundations of economic resilience.
Political instability and inconsistent governance remain overarching impediments. Frequent power shifts, policy reversals, and weak institutional continuity have eroded credibility at home and abroad. Investors perceive high risk with little reward, while policymaking often prioritises short-term populism over structural reform. This environment deters innovation, discourages entrepreneurship, and ensures that even well-intentioned policies falter in implementation. Thus, Pakistan stands at a perilous juncture: the costs of external imbalance are resurfacing without the compensating benefits of growth. Unlike previous cycles that at least offered temporary prosperity before collapse, the current phase delivers austerity without expansion — a “no-boom bust.” The economy is tightening under debt and inflationary pressures before achieving any meaningful improvement in employment, income, or productivity.
THE WRITER IS A FINANCIAL MARKET ENTHUSIAST AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH PAKISTAN’S STOCKS, COMMODITIES AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGY
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In 2025, a sweeping set of reforms by the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) has been announced to make NPS more attractive, flexible, and investor-friendly.
Non-government subscribers with an NPS corpus of more than Rs 12 lakh can now withdraw up to 80% of their savings as a lump sum, with only 20% mandatorily allocated to an annuity.
The National Pension System (NPS) has been largely used for tax savings. In 2025, a sweeping set of reforms by the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) has been announced to make NPS more attractive, flexible, and investor-friendly.
Here’s a simple breakdown of what has changed.
Higher lump-sum withdrawals at retirement
One of the most significant changes is the higher cash withdrawal limit. Non-government subscribers with an NPS corpus of more than Rs 12 lakh can now withdraw up to 80% of their savings as a lump sum, with only 20% mandatorily allocated to an annuity. Earlier, 40% had to be annuitised, a provision that often reduced post-retirement returns.
New withdrawal slabs for smaller NPS corpus
PFRDA has introduced a new withdrawal framework based on corpus size, offering greater flexibility to investors with lower balances.
Subscribers with a corpus below Rs 8 lakh can withdraw 100% of the amount as a lump sum. Those with a corpus between Rs 8 lakh and Rs 12 lakh can choose between phased withdrawals using Systematic Unit Redemption (SUR), partial lump-sum withdrawal combined with annuity purchase, or higher lump-sum withdrawal depending on subscriber category.
Systematic Unit Redemption (SUR) introduced
A key structural reform is the introduction of Systematic Unit Redemption, which allows subscribers to withdraw their NPS corpus gradually over a minimum period of six years. This enables a steady post-retirement income stream without locking funds into an annuity.
Investment age limit extended to 85 years
Subscribers can now remain invested in NPS until 85 years of age, up from the earlier limit of 75. This benefits investors who want to delay withdrawals or continue compounding their retirement corpus beyond the traditional retirement age of 60.
More flexibility in partial withdrawals
Before turning 60, NPS subscribers can now make up to four partial withdrawals, compared with three earlier, with a minimum gap of four years. Withdrawals of up to 25% of own contributions are allowed for specified purposes such as education, marriage, home purchase and medical emergencies.
After 60, subscribers who continue investing can make partial withdrawals with a minimum gap of three years between transactions.
Multiple schemes under one NPS account
Non-government subscribers can now hold multiple schemes under a single PRAN, allowing them to diversify across fund managers and investment strategies without opening separate accounts.
100% equity option for long-term investors
From October 2025, private, corporate and self-employed subscribers can invest up to 100% in equities under the Multiple Scheme Framework, up from the earlier cap of 75%. This option is designed for younger investors with long time horizons who can tolerate higher volatility.
Switching between MSF schemes, however, is restricted for the first 15 years or until age 60.
NPS can now invest in gold, REITs and IPOs
NPS equity schemes are now permitted to invest in gold and silver ETFs, REITs, equity AIFs and IPOs. The combined exposure to these assets is capped at 5% of the equity allocation, offering diversification without excessive risk.
Scheme A discontinued: What subscribers must do
Subscribers invested in Scheme A, which focused on alternative assets such as infrastructure, must switch to Scheme C or Scheme E by December 25, 2025. The scheme is being phased out due to low participation and liquidity challenges.
Other investor-friendly changes
Several additional reforms have further improved NPS attractiveness. These include removal of the five-year lock-in for non-government subscribers, permission to pledge NPS corpus to obtain loans (up to 25% of own contributions), and enhanced tax benefits for NPS Vatsalya contributions under Section 80CCD(1B).
Clearer exit and family protection rules
Exit rules have also been streamlined. Subscribers who renounce Indian citizenship can withdraw their entire corpus. In the event of death, nominees or legal heirs receive 100% of the corpus if no annuity has been purchased. Interim relief provisions have also been introduced for cases where a subscriber is legally declared missing.
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December 19, 2025, 16:15 IST
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Business
India’s Net Direct Tax Collection Rises 8% To Rs 17.04 Lakh Crore On Higher Corporate Tax Mop-Up
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Net corporate tax collection during the period (April 1, 2025, to December 17, 2025) stands at about Rs 8.17 lakh crore, up from Rs 7.39 lakh crore in the same period of FY25.
India’s gross direct tax collection, before adjusting refunds, stood at over Rs 20.01 lakh crore so far this fiscal year, a 4.16 per cent growth over the year-ago period.
India’s net direct tax collection has increased 8 per cent to over Rs 17.04 lakh crore in the ongoing financial year so far, on higher corporate tax mop-up. Net corporate tax collection during the period (April 1, 2025, to December 17, 2025) stood at about Rs 8.17 lakh crore, up from Rs 7.39 lakh crore in the same period of FY25.
Refund issuances fell 13.52 per cent to over Rs 2.97 lakh crore between April 1 and December 17.
The country’s non-corporate tax, including individuals and HUFs, mop-up so far this fiscal year stood around Rs 8.46 lakh crore, up from about Rs 7.96 lakh crore in the same period last year.
Securities Transaction Tax (STT) collection stood at Rs 40,194.77 crore so far this fiscal year, marginally higher than Rs 40,114.02 crore in the year-ago period.
India’s gross direct tax collection, before adjusting refunds, stood at over Rs 20.01 lakh crore so far this fiscal year, a 4.16 per cent growth over the year-ago period.
In the current fiscal year, the government has projected its direct tax collection at Rs 25.20 lakh crore, up 12.7 per cent year-on-year. The government aims to collect Rs 78,000 crore from STT in FY26.
Rohinton Sidhwa, partner at Deloitte India, said, “Tax refunds issuance has dropped much below last year, while overall tax collection has grown marginally at 4%. The drop in refunds is being attributed to a higher amount of screening of any fraudulent refund claims. Holding back refunds also accelerates litigation that the tax department can ill afford. Overall, the corporate advance tax increase signals good corporate earnings. Non- corporate advance tax collections have, however, declined possibly on the back of rate cuts for individuals given in the previous Budget.”
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December 19, 2025, 12:49 IST
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Borrowing fell last month to its lowest November level for four years but was still higher than expected as figures for the year so far were pushed higher due to the Government’s U-turn on winter fuel payments.
Official figures showed borrowing stood at £11.7 billion last month, £1.9 billion less than in November last year and the lowest for that month since 2021 thanks to a sharp fall in debt interest payments.
But the figure was more than the £10.3 billion expected by most economists and the £8.6 billion forecast in March by the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
The OBR’s monthly forecasts from the budget on November 26 are not available until mid-January, according to the ONS.
Borrowing for the eight months of the financial year so far was £132.3 billion, £10 billion higher than the same period a year ago and £16.8 billion higher than the OBR forecast in March.
This was partly due to an extra £1.8 billion of spending on winter fuel payments after the Government U-turned on its previous decision to severely restrict payments through means testing, instead opting to give the payout to all pensioners except those earning above £35,000 a year.
This helped drive an upward revision to borrowing for the seven months to October by £3.9 billion.
ONS senior statistician Tom Davies said: “Despite an increase in spending, this month’s borrowing was the lowest November for four years.
“The main reason for the drop from last year was increased receipts from taxes and National Insurance contributions.”
November’s figure was pushed lower thanks to falling debt interest payments on borrowing, down by £200 million year-on-year to £3.4 billion and the lowest November level for six years.
Public sector net debt, including the Bank of England, reached £2.93 trillion at the end of November, which is around 95.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 0.3 percentage points more than a year ago, although remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s.
Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there was “very little Christmas cheer for the Chancellor” in the latest borrowing figures.
He added: “Ms Reeves has staked much fiscal credibility on chunky tax increases in the back end of the forecast period. But we think today’s figures further illustrate the shaky foundations of that gamble.
“Revenues continue to underperform, and the smorgasbord approach of tax increases relies on distortionary tax increases with uncertain yields.
“We also have serious doubts about the Government’s ability to follow through on the raft of spending cuts announced in the Budget.”
Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray said the debt interest payments underscored the need to bring borrowing down.
He said: “£1 in every £10 we spend goes on debt interest – money that could otherwise be invested in public services.
“That is why last month the Chancellor set out a Budget that delivers on our pledge to cut debt and borrowing.”
Martin Beck at WPI Strategy said “confidence remains the missing ingredient”.
“A clear and credible pro-growth strategy from the Government – and an end to the pervasive gloom surrounding the UK economy – may matter just as much for the public finances as the fine print of future tax and spending plans,” he said.
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NPS Gets A Major Overhaul In 2025: What The New Rules Mean For Your Retirement Money?
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